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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 16:04:20 GMT
Returning to the actual point of this thread, here is my guess as to how each ward voted : STRONG TO OVERWHELMING CONSERVATIVE Royal Hospital, Stanley, Palace & Hurlingham CLEARLY CONSERVATIVE Redcliffe, Parsons Green & Sandford, Fulham Town NARROWLY CONSERVATIVE Munster NEAR-DEAD-HEAT Chelsea Riverside NARROWLY LABOUR Sands End CLEARLY LABOUR Walham Green STRONG TO OVERWHELMING LABOUR West Kensington, Fulham Reach, Lillie though Labour probably had larger leads in W Kensington & Fulham Reach than the Tories had in any of theirs Yes I think thats spot on |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 7, 2024 16:09:13 GMT
My Taid lived for a time in Stamford Hill, or at least very near it, in the 1930s. It was a densely populated inner urban district then; it is nothing like South Brooklyn which was still suburban at the time.
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Post by batman on Aug 7, 2024 16:16:08 GMT
Returning to the actual point of this thread, here is my guess as to how each ward voted : STRONG TO OVERWHELMING CONSERVATIVE Royal Hospital, Stanley, Palace & Hurlingham CLEARLY CONSERVATIVE Redcliffe, Parsons Green & Sandford, Fulham Town NARROWLY CONSERVATIVE Munster NEAR-DEAD-HEAT Chelsea Riverside NARROWLY LABOUR Sands End CLEARLY LABOUR Walham Green STRONG TO OVERWHELMING LABOUR West Kensington, Fulham Reach, Lillie though Labour probably had larger leads in W Kensington & Fulham Reach than the Tories had in any of theirs Yes I think thats spot on well you can't get higher praise than that can you. thanks Pete. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2024 16:18:17 GMT
Although on my figures, Palace & Hurlingham would be in the second ('Clearly Conservative') category rather than the first, but then I'm not an Oracle..
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Post by batman on Aug 7, 2024 17:00:00 GMT
perhaps. Traditionally the ward however drawn or named tends to be about 3 to 1 Tory v Labour. It was down to about 2 to 1 in 2022 though. Allowing for a small swing since then it would still be nearly 2 to 1. In the end it depends on your criteria for strong as opposed to clearly.
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 7, 2024 17:00:04 GMT
For what it's worth my model identified three distinct groups - generally all with similar majorities and large gaps between them:
Solidly Conservative
Royal Hospital
Palace & Hurlingham
Redcliffe
Parsons Green & Sandford
Stanley
Highly Marginal
Fulham Town
Munster
Chelsea Riverside
Solidly Labour
Lillie
Fulham Reach
Sands End
Walham Green
West Kensington
Two of the marginal wards came out as very close but with narrow Labour wins. Chelsea Riverside was rather less close (predicted Labour lead of 8%) which makes me suspect that Chelsea is rather more Conservative than even demographics would suggest - in contrast wards such as Palace & Hurlingham and Parsons Green & Sandford feel like they should be slightly closer than the 15-17% Conservative majorities I have for them.
I actually have the same winning share for the Conservatives in Royal Hospital as Labour got in West Kensington - 51.0% apiece - though the latter was slightly safer.
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Post by sanders on Aug 7, 2024 17:01:41 GMT
Returning to the actual point of this thread, here is my guess as to how each ward voted : STRONG TO OVERWHELMING CONSERVATIVE Royal Hospital, Stanley, Palace & Hurlingham CLEARLY CONSERVATIVE Redcliffe, Parsons Green & Sandford, Fulham Town NARROWLY CONSERVATIVE Munster NEAR-DEAD-HEAT Chelsea Riverside NARROWLY LABOUR Sands End CLEARLY LABOUR Walham Green STRONG TO OVERWHELMING LABOUR West Kensington, Fulham Reach, Lillie though Labour probably had larger leads in W Kensington & Fulham Reach than the Tories had in any of theirs Yes I think thats spot on Chelsea Riverside as a near dead heat is interesting and suggests not a huge shift from 2022. Can someone please explain why the ward is as estimated to have been a close as all that? Is the Worlds End Estate still a big factor in the ward? |
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 7, 2024 17:04:49 GMT
perhaps. Traditionally the ward however drawn or named tends to be about 3 to 1 Tory v Labour. It was down to about 2 to 1 in 2022 though. Allowing for a small swing since then it would still be nearly 2 to 1. In the end it depends on your criteria for strong as opposed to clearly. It's a difficult one - very much a ward where there's not an obvious source of Labour votes (other than Sulivan Court which is tiny in the scheme of things). But wards like that can be close - while not quite as tribally Conservative, the rather similar Thamesfield ward across the river almost certainly voted Labour by a modest but significant margin. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 7, 2024 18:14:55 GMT
A belated well done to batman for his graft in this seat. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 7, 2024 18:14:55 GMT
These are all incredibly terrible comparisons. In the sense that Stamford Hill is more like South Brooklyn and Williamsburg in reality, yes. But it’s important to use parallels wherever possible to make things easier to understand. Reasoning by analogy > reasoning from first principles, at least for most people in the real world. East Anglisk lefties should focus on … East Anglia, not London. In other words, please shut the fuck up if you don’t mind. And if he does mind, he should continue regardless. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 7, 2024 18:16:17 GMT
In the sense that Stamford Hill is more like South Brooklyn and Williamsburg in reality, yes. But it’s important to use parallels wherever possible to make things easier to understand. Reasoning by analogy > reasoning from first principles, at least for most people in the real world. East Anglisk lefties should focus on … East Anglia, not London. In other words, please shut the fuck up if you don’t mind. And if he does mind, he should continue regardless. Sorry. I’m just tetchy and irritable after seeing how quickly my grandad is declining at 92. East Anglian Lefty did nothing wrong. He was right and I was wrong. |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
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Post by Ports on Aug 7, 2024 18:34:10 GMT
And if he does mind, he should continue regardless. Sorry. I’m just tetchy and irritable after seeing how quickly my grandad is declining at 92. East Anglian Lefty did nothing wrong. He was right and I was wrong. I was direct with you in an earlier response, so I must also offer my sympathies and condolences for your grandfather - you are undergoing an experience that takes its toll on all of us when we are affected. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 7, 2024 19:49:10 GMT
Sorry. I’m just tetchy and irritable after seeing how quickly my grandad is declining at 92. East Anglian Lefty did nothing wrong. He was right and I was wrong. I was direct with you in an earlier response, so I must also offer my sympathies and condolences for your grandfather - you are undergoing an experience that takes its toll on all of us when we are affected. It's no one on the forum's fault. I guess even with the best care money can buy people will start to sundown eventually. |
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Post by batman on Aug 7, 2024 19:55:07 GMT
A belated well done to batman for his graft in this seat. if you mean election work this year, I didn't though I have canvassed extensively in Fulham over the years, and Chelsea in the Portillo by-election. But thanks. Re Chelsea Riverside, see my Almanac profile of the seat. |
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Post by batman on Aug 7, 2024 19:56:33 GMT
perhaps. Traditionally the ward however drawn or named tends to be about 3 to 1 Tory v Labour. It was down to about 2 to 1 in 2022 though. Allowing for a small swing since then it would still be nearly 2 to 1. In the end it depends on your criteria for strong as opposed to clearly. It's a difficult one - very much a ward where there's not an obvious source of Labour votes (other than Sulivan Court which is tiny in the scheme of things). But wards like that can be close - while not quite as tribally Conservative, the rather similar Thamesfield ward across the river almost certainly voted Labour by a modest but significant margin. that would partly be a specific vote for Fleur Anderson who can reach the parts other socialists cannot normally reach. |
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Post by redtony on Aug 7, 2024 21:11:00 GMT
yes the worlds end estate is in the ward and is a big source of labour votes if they voted. Labour has established close links with the TA And with Ben has taken up their many problems with the council being Deputy Leader of the Neighbouring Council he is in a good position to do it
there are other smaller social housing estates in Chelsea Riverside
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Post by batman on Aug 7, 2024 21:13:32 GMT
yes the worlds end estate is in the ward and is a big source of labour votes if they voted. Labour has established close links with the TA And with Ben has taken up their many problems with the council being Deputy Leader of the Neighbouring Council he is in a good position to do it there are other smaller social housing estates in Chelsea Riverside hard to see how Labour won the seat without a decent turnout from World’s End |
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Post by redtony on Aug 7, 2024 21:32:25 GMT
I predict labour will take Munster Town and Chelsea Riverside in 2026
Lilie is basically the Clem Atlee Estate and west Ken is has the huge west Ken
estate which the council nearly sold off before Labour won the Council 10 years ago and stopped it
Fulham reach and West Ken were transferred into the seat by the boundary commission
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Post by johnloony on Aug 7, 2024 23:11:59 GMT
yes the worlds end estate is in the ward and is a big source of labour votes if they voted. Labour has established close links with the TA And with Ben has taken up their many problems with the council being Deputy Leader of the Neighbouring Council he is in a good position to do it there are other smaller social housing estates in Chelsea Riverside hard to see how Labour won the seat without a decent turnout from World’s End iirc, World’s End is where I met Eric Forth when I was delivering leaflets in K&C in 1999. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Aug 8, 2024 16:17:08 GMT
I predict labour will take Munster Town and Chelsea Riverside in 2026 Lilie is basically the Clem Atlee Estate and west Ken is has the huge west Ken estate which the council nearly sold off before Labour won the Council 10 years ago and stopped it Fulham reach and West Ken were transferred into the seat by the boundary commission Been doing a prediction map of London 2026 for the last month or so but I keep changing my mind on a few due to events of recent times, I predict there will Aspire like Independent surges in Newham and Redbridge however Labour will still hold both comfortably. Labour to hold Wandsworth and Westminster and Lib Dem’s to hold Sutton due to Reform splitting vote in key wards. Reform to gain councillors in Bexley, Havering and B&D. I predict the Tories to hold K&C for now but I think it will be tight. |
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