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Post by andrewp on Aug 23, 2024 7:12:25 GMT
Anyone know where the election map without Reform is please, it’s on this site somewhere Do you mean this one? This is on the main general election thread. This seems to be using the polling on Reform voters' second preferences from More in Common: Although I’m not sure they explain what ‘without Reform’ means? I’ve played with the numbers and one could model it wrongly by simply adding the Reform vote to the Conservative vote- she may have done that. When I’ve done it, I’ve tended to assume that a fair bit of the RefUK vote simply wouldn’t vote without the option of RefUK on the ballot paper. And of course some of it would vote Lab, particularly in a certain type of seat, and a small proportion would vote LD. Then there is the difference between no RefUK at all, and RefUK standing in some seats a la 2019 leading to people turning up at polling stations, finding there is no RefUK candidate to vote for and being as they are there quite possibly voting for someone else. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 23, 2024 7:23:17 GMT
Do you mean this one? This is on the main general election thread. Although I’m not sure she explains what ‘without Reform’ means? I’ve played with the numbers and one could model it wrongly by simply adding the Reform vote to the Conservative vote- she may have done that. When I’ve done it, I’ve tended to assume that a fair bit of the RefUK vote simply wouldn’t vote without the option of RefUK on the ballot paper. And of course some of it would vote Lab, particularly in a certain type of seat, and a small proportion would vote LD. Then there is the difference between no RefUK at all, and RefUK standing in some seats a la 2019 leading to people turning up at polling stations, finding there is no RefUK candidate to vote for and being as they are there quite possibly voting for someone else. She hasn't done that or you would not have Labour winning eg Great Yarmouth. The fact that Labour do win there (and in Harwich & N Essex) while losing sats to the Conservatives elsewhere indicates that there is some regional variation such that in the Eastern region (but not any others AFAICT) more Reform voters second preferenced Labour than the Conservatives. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 23, 2024 7:26:10 GMT
That said, the Conservatives gain this seat, Bury and Peterborough/NW Cambs so it makes even less sense
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605 
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Post by Ports on Aug 23, 2024 7:27:20 GMT
Although I’m not sure she explains what ‘without Reform’ means? I’ve played with the numbers and one could model it wrongly by simply adding the Reform vote to the Conservative vote- she may have done that. When I’ve done it, I’ve tended to assume that a fair bit of the RefUK vote simply wouldn’t vote without the option of RefUK on the ballot paper. And of course some of it would vote Lab, particularly in a certain type of seat, and a small proportion would vote LD. Then there is the difference between no RefUK at all, and RefUK standing in some seats a la 2019 leading to people turning up at polling stations, finding there is no RefUK candidate to vote for and being as they are there quite possibly voting for someone else. She hasn't done that or you would not have Labour winning eg Great Yarmouth. The fact that Labour do win there (and in Harwich & N Essex) while losing sats to the Conservatives elsewhere indicates that there is some regional variation such that in the Eastern region (but not any others AFAICT) more Reform voters second preferenced Labour than the Conservatives. Or it was just a mistake as Peterborough, NW Cambs, SW Norfolk, Bury St Edmunds are all awarded to the Cons. Edit: just beat me to it! |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Aug 23, 2024 7:36:47 GMT
That said, the Conservatives gain this seat, Bury and Peterborough/NW Cambs so it makes even less sense All of those were tight between Labour and the Conservatives so a small Tory lead among people who actually voted Reform would flip them. Great Yarmouth, OTOH, had a bigger Labour lead over the Tories so the Tory gains from Reform not standing might not have been big enough. (I'm not sure that's the case -- I haven't done the calculations myself -- but it's possible. As you say it can't be just adding the Reform vote to the Tory one, which would be obviously wrong anyway, but it could be distributing the Reform vote according to second preferences in a national poll.) It might be quite interesting to do a demographic model based only on constituencies with Reform candidates and then apply it to the ones which didn't have them to estimate what the effects were. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 23, 2024 8:46:04 GMT
That said, the Conservatives gain this seat, Bury and Peterborough/NW Cambs so it makes even less sense All of those were tight between Labour and the Conservatives so a small Tory lead among people who actually voted Reform would flip them. Great Yarmouth, OTOH, had a bigger Labour lead over the Tories so the Tory gains from Reform not standing might not have been big enough. (I'm not sure that's the case -- I haven't done the calculations myself -- but it's possible. As you say it can't be just adding the Reform vote to the Tory one, which would be obviously wrong anyway, but it could be distributing the Reform vote according to second preferences in a national poll.) It might be quite interesting to do a demographic model based only on constituencies with Reform candidates and then apply it to the ones which didn't have them to estimate what the effects were. Yes that makes sense re: Yarmouth. I assume Harwich is a mistake then. |
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