nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 17, 2024 16:14:09 GMT
How did Truss lose so badly? Was the economic issue point here? What about Brexit's impacts on SWN? She didn't lose badly, it was only a 600 vote margin .As for how she lost at all- poor constituency MP, bad reputation from crashing the country's economy, both Bagge and Reform were there as attractive options for different types of right-wing voters in the constituency. If the MP wasn't someone like her, the result would have likely been similar to North West Norfolk. |
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 17, 2024 16:22:14 GMT
How did Truss lose so badly? Was the economic issue point here? What about Brexit's impacts on SWN? She didn't lose badly, it was only a 600 vote margin .As for how she lost at all- poor constituency MP, bad reputation from crashing the country's economy, both Bagge and Reform were there as attractive options for different types of right-wing voters in the constituency. If the MP wasn't someone like her, the result would have likely been similar to North West Norfolk. She did lose badly in the sense we ought not to have lost this seat at all. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 17, 2024 16:26:10 GMT
It's at least four years away! Most likely, though one can never be sure. I still haven't quite mentally adjusted to the "new reality" of infrequent general elections- I only started seriously following politics around the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, and of course for the next several years after that there was a general election every two years. You've been spoilt!  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2024 16:32:30 GMT
She didn't lose badly, it was only a 600 vote margin .As for how she lost at all- poor constituency MP, bad reputation from crashing the country's economy, both Bagge and Reform were there as attractive options for different types of right-wing voters in the constituency. If the MP wasn't someone like her, the result would have likely been similar to North West Norfolk. She did lose badly in the sense we ought not to have lost this seat at all. She's the only who would've lost. |
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Post by batman on Aug 17, 2024 16:33:30 GMT
How did Truss lose so badly? Was the economic issue point here? What about Brexit's impacts on SWN? She didn't lose badly, it was only a 600 vote margin .As for how she lost at all- poor constituency MP, bad reputation from crashing the country's economy, both Bagge and Reform were there as attractive options for different types of right-wing voters in the constituency. If the MP wasn't someone like her, the result would have likely been similar to North West Norfolk. Any loss of a majority that size is a bad loss. Your analysis of why she lost is not bad though. It was because of who & what she is that Bagge stood, and his candidacy was fatal for her chances of holding the seat. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2024 16:37:42 GMT
She didn't lose badly, it was only a 600 vote margin .As for how she lost at all- poor constituency MP, bad reputation from crashing the country's economy, both Bagge and Reform were there as attractive options for different types of right-wing voters in the constituency. If the MP wasn't someone like her, the result would have likely been similar to North West Norfolk. Any loss of a majority that size is a bad loss. Your analysis of why she lost is not bad though. It was because of who & what she is that Bagge stood, and his candidacy was fatal for her chances of holding the seat. Spot on - Truss is a wrong-un. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 17, 2024 18:06:58 GMT
It's at least four years away! Most likely, though one can never be sure. I still haven't quite mentally adjusted to the "new reality" of infrequent general elections- I only started seriously following politics around the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, and of course for the next several years after that there was a general election every two years. The 2014-19 period was an era that I hope will never be repeated. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 17, 2024 18:07:43 GMT
How did Truss lose so badly? Was the economic issue point here? What about Brexit's impacts on SWN? Respectfully, do you live in a cave? |
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 17, 2024 18:10:07 GMT
She didn't lose badly, it was only a 600 vote margin .As for how she lost at all- poor constituency MP, bad reputation from crashing the country's economy, both Bagge and Reform were there as attractive options for different types of right-wing voters in the constituency. If the MP wasn't someone like her, the result would have likely been similar to North West Norfolk. She did lose badly in the sense we ought not to have lost this seat at all. I read it was the largest ever Conservative to Labour swing recorded at a General Election. Is that correct? I'd say that losing a 26k majority was pretty bad. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 17, 2024 18:15:43 GMT
I think it's asking an awful lot psychologically for Truss to accept that her fundamental approach to the British economy was wrong and led not to prosperity but to economic and political disaster. But it is nevertheless true.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 17, 2024 18:40:25 GMT
She did lose badly in the sense we ought not to have lost this seat at all. I read it was the largest ever Conservative to Labour swing recorded at a General Election. Is that correct? I'd say that losing a 26k majority was pretty bad. I believe so. This general election saw a lot of swing records broken- as far as I can tell, the 45.1% swing Con to Rfm in Clacton (going from 25k Conservative majority to 8k Reform majority) was the largest swing in a general election ever, whilst the 41.3% swing Con to LD in North Shropshire (going from 23k Conservative majority to 15k Lib Dem majority) was the largest ever swing where the winning party had also stood at the previous general election. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 17, 2024 20:26:30 GMT
The Tory vote share in 2019 was just short of 70%, I think they managed to hold most other seats that were at that level or above? Aside from Clacton but the Farage candidacy did make the circumstances there fairly unique
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Aug 17, 2024 20:29:15 GMT
How did Truss lose so badly? Was the economic issue point here? What about Brexit's impacts on SWN? Respectfully, do you live in a cave? No in a dream world? |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 17, 2024 20:55:21 GMT
Having said the above Boston and Skegness was also over 70% Tory and Richard Tice took it
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 17, 2024 23:24:03 GMT
The Tory vote share in 2019 was just short of 70%, I think they managed to hold most other seats that were at that level or above? Aside from Clacton but the Farage candidacy did make the circumstances there fairly unique Cannock Chase, though that did rather stand out as a bizarrely inflated result even for that year. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2024 23:43:11 GMT
The Tory vote share in 2019 was just short of 70%, I think they managed to hold most other seats that were at that level or above? Aside from Clacton but the Farage candidacy did make the circumstances there fairly unique Cannock Chase, though that did rather stand out as a bizarrely inflated result even for that year. The 1997-2019 (35%) swing was huge. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 17, 2024 23:58:59 GMT
The Tory vote share in 2019 was just short of 70%, I think they managed to hold most other seats that were at that level or above? Aside from Clacton but the Farage candidacy did make the circumstances there fairly unique Cannock Chase, though that did rather stand out as a bizarrely inflated result even for that year. Other Tory losses where they got over 65% of the vote in 2019 were Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Chatham and Aylesford, Tamworth, South Basildon and East Thurrock, North Warwickshire, Great Yarmouth. Very nearly Basildon and Billericay too. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2024 2:18:03 GMT
Cannock Chase, though that did rather stand out as a bizarrely inflated result even for that year. Other Tory losses where they got over 65% of the vote in 2019 were Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Chatham and Aylesford, Tamworth, South Basildon and East Thurrock, North Warwickshire, Great Yarmouth. Very nearly Basildon and Billericay too. Reform vote in each seat: Sittingbourne - 25.6%; Chatham - 24.5%;Tamworth - 25.1%; S. Basildon - 30.8%; N. Warwickshire - 26.1%; Gt. Yarmouth - 35.3%. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 18, 2024 11:33:22 GMT
Having said the above Boston and Skegness was also over 70% Tory and Richard Tice took it It had also been one of the best UKIP seats in 2015, thus not a complete surprise even so. |
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Post by aargauer on Aug 18, 2024 20:13:01 GMT
I think it's asking an awful lot psychologically for Truss to accept that her fundamental approach to the British economy was wrong and led not to prosperity but to economic and political disaster. But it is nevertheless true. The markets are not politically motivated and they did not care for her unfounded tax cuts. Any Tory should respect that. |
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