South West Norfolk

[stb12]

South West Norfolk

[YL]

I think genuine examples of substantial negative personal votes are quite rare, but might there be one here?

[East Anglian Lefty]

Labour will expect to win Thetford by a large enough margin that we'd be ahead in the Breckland portion of the district. The KLWN half of the seat is much more difficult going - Downham Market is the only part of the seat where we'd expect to be remotely in contention even in a good Labour year, and that's less than a quarter of the seat's portion of the district.

In 1997 the majority was under 2500, but that was the last gasp of the Labour vote in agricultural Norfolk and it's clearly a tougher lift now. I still think it's competitive if the Tories end up with 50-100 seats, but only because of who the incumbent is and I say that more in hope than expectation.

[grumpyguy]

What effect, if any, d'you think Indie James Bagge will have? His website paints a picture of a classic twentieth century rural conservative landowner. It's not difficult to see him taking Tory votes off Truss.

[grumpyguy]

What effect, if any, d'you think Indie James Bagge will have? His website paints a picture of a classic old style twentieth century rural conservative landowner. It's not difficult to see him taking Tory votes off Truss.

[right]

Mar 22, 2024 19:34:55 GMT grumpyguy said:

What effect, if any, d'you think Indie James Bagge will have? His website paints a picture of a classic old style twentieth century rural conservative landowner. It's not difficult to see him taking Tory votes off Truss.

This is a leftover from the Turnip Taliban episode:

www.edp24.co.uk/news/24032417.turnip-talibans-james-bagge-stand-liz-truss/

I've never met Truss but I know from a couple of Tory voting but non political people who've dealt with her that she's almost autistic in her personal dealings, and this can be very off-putting.  So if his campaign catches fire it could be a Martin Bell type campaign (Tatton, not Brentwood). 

This is the sort of thing that will come back to haunt me, but I don't think that it will make a Liberal or Labour win possible as Bagge doesn't appear right wing enough to repel centre left voters so a big surge in his support will soak up votes from all parties, and the Tory majority is too big for even a reasonably lopsided hoovering of Tory votes to be noticeable.  And even if the Turnip Talibanist does get more right wing in his campaign there may be an odd effect of social liberals lending votes to socially liberal damsel in distress Truss.

So either this will be one of the upsets that defines this election or Truss will get through with an Independent candidate getting a respectable but still forgettable vote.

[right]

Almanack - vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16755/south-west-norfolk
Wikipedia - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_West_Norfolk_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
2019 GE - vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/12968/south-west-norfolk
2017 GE - vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/9421/south-west-norfolk
2015 GE - vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/2075/south-west-norfolk

[The Bishop]

You don't think it possible Labour could come through the middle of a Truss/Bagge split?

Terry Jermy is well known in his area and maybe the most popular Labourite locally - the odds are against it but I wouldn't totally write the possibility off.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Bagge would appear to be based in the West Norfolk half of the seat. If he does have any pull with the electorate (and I remain to be convinced) then it probably doesn't stretch to Thetford, which doesn't naturally have much in common with the rest of the seat. And Thetford is where the non-Tory vote is strongest.

[right]

Mar 29, 2024 10:25:08 GMT The Bishop said:

You don't think it possible Labour could come through the middle of a Truss/Bagge split?

Terry Jermy is well known in his area and maybe the most popular Labourite locally - the odds are against it but I wouldn't totally write the possibility off.

If Labour was a strong second place then this sort of thing could help them. But with the Tories on about two thirds of the vote I suspect you'd need something non partisan to upset this.

For Labour to win, Bagge would need to take his vote almost entirely (80%+ of his vote) from the Tories. He'd also not only need to repel Labour voters but also Liberals who could lend their votes and Labour leaning Tory voters. And he'd need to avoid this leakage when the numbers are scaled up.

If Labour couldn't manage to stop enough of its voters going to UKIP in 2015, what chance are they going to have with a patrician wet-ish Tory sticking it to Truss?

It may be right that Labour will keep hold of its vote in Thetford when the west of the seat goes for the Independent, but that's likely to help Truss.

In the end Independents tend to do badly in General Elections, which is likely to be Bagge's fate.

If he does take a few thousand votes, a good chunk will be from Labour or stopped switching fully to Labour. Although that will help Labour, the offsetting effect will mean its not enough in this constituency with its massive Tory majority.

And if Bagge's attracting enough votes that he's seriously threatening Truss, it will be on his own behalf and not Labour's.

So I think it could be a Hamilton moment, not a Portillo moment. But realistically it's not even likely to be a road bump for Truss in the end.

[East Anglian Lefty]

70% of votes in the seat were Tory last time. The likelihood of a challenger who is right of centre taking 80% of his votes from that pool is in that context rather higher than it might otherwise be.

[right]

Apr 1, 2024 20:06:10 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

70% of votes in the seat were Tory last time. The likelihood of a challenger who is right of centre taking 80% of his votes from that pool is in that context rather higher than it might otherwise be.

I'm not sure.  I've seen how "anti" votes have coalesced in usually safe seats and wards, and I suspect you have as well.  If one challenger is seen to have momentum then they tend to get lent votes from all sorts of places - particularly if the challenger is somewhat to the centre as Bagge appears to be positioning himself.  He should also take a lot of otherwise non voters, which normally doesn't count but in a big upset would go to the "anti" candidate.

Even if Bagge was getting a higher share of votes from Tories than their previous share of the electorate (something I don't think will happen for reasons above) a large chunk of those would be otherwise Tory-Labour switchers.

I agree Truss is in more trouble than she looks if Bagge takes off, but that would be from Bagge not from Labour.

[graham]

The boundaries were different - and,of course, there were far more agricultural workers at the time - but this seat was Labour-held until 1964 when it was one of few Tory gains against the national tide.

[beacon]

I was up in Norfolk at the weekend and I understand that Bagge is both well respected and getting traction in his campaign. Truss has very little local presence and is regarded as a poor constituency MP. If there was an Independent to get a good vote it would be Bagge. Truss is barely seen in SW Norfolk.

[matureleft]

Apr 12, 2024 7:19:59 GMT beacon said:

I was up in Norfolk at the weekend and I understand that Bagge is both well respected and getting traction in his campaign. Truss has very little local presence and is regarded as a poor constituency MP. If there was an Independent to get a good vote it would be Bagge. Truss is barely seen in SW Norfolk.

It’s worth reminding that Truss had her difficulties there when she was first selected. There must be a number of Tory activists there who have never been fans. 

[right]

Apr 12, 2024 7:26:37 GMT matureleft said:

Apr 12, 2024 7:19:59 GMT beacon said:

I was up in Norfolk at the weekend and I understand that Bagge is both well respected and getting traction in his campaign. Truss has very little local presence and is regarded as a poor constituency MP. If there was an Independent to get a good vote it would be Bagge. Truss is barely seen in SW Norfolk.

It’s worth reminding that Truss had her difficulties there when she was first selected. There must be a number of Tory activists there who have never been fans. 

Apparently Bagge was one of those

[matureleft]

Apr 12, 2024 7:45:50 GMT right said:

Apr 12, 2024 7:26:37 GMT matureleft said:

It’s worth reminding that Truss had her difficulties there when she was first selected. There must be a number of Tory activists there who have never been fans. 

Apparently Bagge was one of those

Aha!

[batman]

Bagge against carpetbaggers

[YL]

They were called the "Turnip Taliban" at the time. When Bagge was asked about this by a journalist a few months ago he responded

It is not a label of choice. But a turnip has deeper roots than a lettuce.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liz-truss-election-norfolk-b2474034.html

[andrewp]

I’m not saying that Truss is or isn’t an assiduous MP, but ‘ we never see our MP’ is an irritating statement to me. Where do the people who say that expect to see their MP? Do they expect them to be standing in the high street on a Saturday morning to be seen? An otherwise very poor MP could do that and tick that box. Most MPs are pretty good at sharing what they’ve been doing and photo opportunities.

In my adult life, I’ve had 7 MPs- 3 Labour, 2 Conservatives and 2 Lib Dems. I don’t think I’ve ever seen any of them more than about twice so I could say I never see them. ( apart from when I lived in a flat and the MP rented, as his constituency home, the flat next door for 2 years, and I only saw him about 3 times) . People say we never see them about my current MP, but she does all the remembrance day etc things and my dad is involved in an organisation in which she is involved and she turns up to most of the meetings. When anyone says we never see them or they are barely seen, I would always ask where do you expect to see them?