South West Norfolk

[batman]

Apr 15, 2024 13:05:00 GMT graham said:

Apr 15, 2024 9:59:13 GMT batman said:

Labour are going to be very wary of a decapitation strategy. They will be much keener to maximise their gains ranging from the relatively bread-and-butter to the realistic outside bets. In Norfolk there are better chances elsewhere even though only Norwich North looks doable other than in a complete Tory meltdown

Great yarmouth should be Labour in a good year for the party. Brexit is likely to have exaggerated Tory strength in 2019.

it's definitely not out of the question in current circumstances & Brandon Lewis's retirement is also a help to Labour. It's a tough ask though.

[graham]

Apr 15, 2024 17:11:14 GMT batman said:

Apr 15, 2024 13:05:00 GMT graham said:

Great yarmouth should be Labour in a good year for the party. Brexit is likely to have exaggerated Tory strength in 2019.

it's definitely not out of the question in current circumstances & Brandon Lewis's retirement is also a help to Labour. It's a tough ask though.

Traditionally the seat has been a Tory-leaning marginal - normally Tory but won by Labour in good years. Labour did win here in 1950 and 1966 before enjoting substantial majorities 1997 - 2010.

[threecrowns]

If we are talking about an East Anglia seat that would be a feasible gain for Labour and not a pie-in-the-sky waste of resource, then I'd hop over the border to Lowestoft.

[batman]

Lowestoft & Yarmouth have often behaved electorally similarly to each other. However, in 1951 & 1955 Labour won the former & not the latter, and in 1966 the reverse was the case. It hasn't always depended on boundaries either.

[jonnysaintsfan]

The Labour candidate in Great Yarmouth appears to be running an energetic campaign
He was focusing on Brandon Lewis having 7 jobs, so Lewis standing down may not be an advantage.

[riccimarsh]

Liz Truss comparing herself to Brian Clough is utterly absurd, for the simple reason that prior to his 44-day stint at Leeds, Clough had already been incredibly successful by winning the League title at Derby County. What had Truss achieved of a similar magnitude prior to her 44-day stint in No. 10??

[maxque]

I feel the most effective way to decapitate Truss doesn't pass through Labour or Bagge but a principled future Conservative leader telling her she needs to choose between CPAC and Steve Bannon or the Conservative whip.

[john07]

Apr 15, 2024 20:39:36 GMT riccimarsh said:

Liz Truss comparing herself to Brian Clough is utterly absurd, for the simple reason that prior to his 44-day stint at Leeds, Clough had already been incredibly successful by winning the League title at Derby County. What had Truss achieved of a similar magnitude prior to her 44-day stint in No. 10??

I can’t imagine what the staunch left-winger, Brian Clough, would have said if he was compared to a right-wing Pop-Con nut job.

[maxque]

Apr 15, 2024 22:31:46 GMT john07 said:

Apr 15, 2024 20:39:36 GMT riccimarsh said:

Liz Truss comparing herself to Brian Clough is utterly absurd, for the simple reason that prior to his 44-day stint at Leeds, Clough had already been incredibly successful by winning the League title at Derby County. What had Truss achieved of a similar magnitude prior to her 44-day stint in No. 10??

I can’t imagine what the staunch left-winger, Brian Clough, would have said if he was compared to a right-wing Pop-Con nut job.

I can, but I don't think the moderators would like it being in writing it here.

[YL]

Apr 15, 2024 22:22:55 GMT maxque said:

I feel the most effective way to decapitate Truss doesn't pass through Labour or Bagge but a principled future Conservative leader telling her she needs to choose between CPAC and Steve Bannon or the Conservative whip.

That would involve a leader of the Conservative Party displaying some backbone in their dealings with the hard right.

[Tony Otim]

I have a question in my head (which we may never know the answer to) - suppose Bagge is successful and Truss is gone, does he then sit through the next parliament as an indy or try to build bridges with the Party and join with a view to getting the Conservative nomination next time round?

[The Bishop]

One presumes he might get asked that very question before polling day?

[Tony Otim]

Apr 16, 2024 11:21:11 GMT The Bishop said:

One presumes he might get asked that very question before polling day?

He might also try to avoid giving a categorical answer...

[YL]

Apr 16, 2024 10:54:33 GMT Tony Otim said:

I have a question in my head (which we may never know the answer to) - suppose Bagge is successful and Truss is gone, does he then sit through the next parliament as an indy or try to build bridges with the Party and join with a view to getting the Conservative nomination next time round?

He is 72, so he might well have just one term in mind, though by the current standards of US presidential candidates that makes him a mere baby.

[Deleted]

If it really is just about Liz Truss, he probably doesn't have much beyond polling day in mind. Like all those "x first" independents who only really stand for the local council because they want to be a proxy referendum on housebuilding, or like the two parties who came first and second at the 2019 European elections in this country.

Or maybe I'm just cynical

[Sg1]

Apr 16, 2024 11:34:03 GMT @europeanlefty said:

If it really is just about Liz Truss, he probably doesn't have much beyond polling day in mind. Like all those "x first" independents who only really stand for the local council because they want to be a proxy referendum on housebuilding, or like the two parties who came first and second at the 2019 European elections in this country.

Or maybe I'm just cynical

Depends on how it's handled. I've observed situations where incumbents let an independent challenge get under their skin unnecessarily and exhaust all their efforts trying to counter it, ironically giving that independent a higher profile and significance than they've earned.

[stb12]

Apr 16, 2024 12:54:23 GMT Sg1 said:

Apr 16, 2024 11:34:03 GMT @europeanlefty said:

If it really is just about Liz Truss, he probably doesn't have much beyond polling day in mind. Like all those "x first" independents who only really stand for the local council because they want to be a proxy referendum on housebuilding, or like the two parties who came first and second at the 2019 European elections in this country.

Or maybe I'm just cynical

Depends on how it's handled. I've observed situations where incumbents let an independent challenge get under their skin unnecessarily and exhaust all their efforts trying to counter it, ironically giving that independent a higher profile and significance than they've earned.

[Sg1]

Apr 16, 2024 13:00:39 GMT stb12 said:

Apr 16, 2024 12:54:23 GMT Sg1 said:

Depends on how it's handled. I've observed situations where incumbents let an independent challenge get under their skin unnecessarily and exhaust all their efforts trying to counter it, ironically giving that independent a higher profile and significance than they've earned.

Precisely. I remember Eric Pickles talking about how he handled the Martin Bell challenge in 2001, and that was by disregarding it and focusing on his own campaign. 

[stb12]

Apr 16, 2024 13:05:27 GMT Sg1 said:

Apr 16, 2024 13:00:39 GMT stb12 said:

Precisely. I remember Eric Pickles talking about how he handled the Martin Bell challenge in 2001, and that was by disregarding it and focusing on his own campaign. 

In fairness Labour and the Lib Dems didn’t stand down for that challenge to Pickles while they famously did for Tatton, although going by that video the Hamiltons only helped Bell’s publicity

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 12, 2024 8:12:41 GMT andrewp said:

I’m not saying that Truss is or isn’t an assiduous MP, but ‘ we never see our MP’ is an irritating statement to me. Where do the people who say that expect to see their MP? Do they expect them to be standing in the high street on a Saturday morning to be seen? An otherwise very poor MP could do that and tick that box. Most MPs are pretty good at sharing what they’ve been doing and photo opportunities.

In my adult life, I’ve had 7 MPs- 3 Labour, 2 Conservatives and 2 Lib Dems. I don’t think I’ve ever seen any of them more than about twice so I could say I never see them. ( apart from when I lived in a flat and the MP rented, as his constituency home, the flat next door for 2 years, and I only saw him about 3 times) . People say we never see them about my current MP, but she does all the remembrance day etc things and my dad is involved in an organisation in which she is involved and she turns up to most of the meetings. When anyone says we never see them or they are barely seen, I would always ask where do you expect to see them?

The late Eric Forth once told someone who complained along these lines that:
"I am employed to be your representative in the making of laws. I am not employed to be your social worker".