graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Jan 22, 2024 12:20:50 GMT
To what extent does the baggage of Cyril Smith weigh down the LDs in Rochdale?It is almost 32 years since he ceased to be the local MP - and 37 years since he was last elected.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 22, 2024 12:22:28 GMT
putting in an effort for the ld's here might be worthwile if they can snatch back second place over the tories? would help them to make the argument that a lib vote isn't a wasted vote. but as mentioned, just depends on resources in a general election year. would imagine they might start putting in appeals for donations about it and run a campaign that matches the increase in donations? Rule One : Most votes are 'wasted' and ALL LD votes are ALWAYS wasted. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 22, 2024 12:27:38 GMT
There is one journalist who made it all the way to number 10. Can't remember the name though.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 22, 2024 12:40:48 GMT
There is one journalist who made it all the way to number 10. Can't remember the name though. Disraeli? Churchill? The fat little womanising Turk? |
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Post by matureleft on Jan 22, 2024 12:53:18 GMT
It's a very well-trodden path to Parliament, probably next to being a lawyer or a special adviser. Ben Bradshaw, Ann Clwyd, Michael Gove, Esther McVey, Anna Soubry all spring to mind with no effort and there'll be many, many more.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 22, 2024 12:57:49 GMT
Clive Lewis was a BBC local correspondent. I discovered this when listening to coverage of the 2008 local elections We're talking about good MPs though :-p Current Plaid Cymru Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and Welsh Minister Lee Waters are two more to add to this list of good journalists who make good parliamentarians (individual views due exist etc). |
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 22, 2024 13:36:19 GMT
It's a very well-trodden path to Parliament, probably next to being a lawyer or a special adviser. Ben Bradshaw, Ann Clwyd, Michael Gove, Esther McVey, Anna Soubry all spring to mind with no effort and there'll be many, many more. It used very much to be lawyers (MPs do after all make laws). But these days by far the largest group are political advisors of some sort or another. I've been doing loads of almanac profiles, and MP after MP has worked solely for a party organization or associated pressure group. I don't worry so much about journalists, as although glib and used to nonchalance about the truth, they do have experience inevitably of real life and a wide variety of people (political commentators of course excepted). |
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Post by matureleft on Jan 22, 2024 13:53:18 GMT
It's a very well-trodden path to Parliament, probably next to being a lawyer or a special adviser. Ben Bradshaw, Ann Clwyd, Michael Gove, Esther McVey, Anna Soubry all spring to mind with no effort and there'll be many, many more. It used very much to be lawyers (MPs do after all make laws). But these days by far the largest group are political advisors of some sort or another. I've been doing loads of almanac profiles, and MP after MP has worked solely for a party organization or associated pressure group. I don't worry so much about journalists, as although glib and used to nonchalance about the truth, they do have experience inevitably of real life and a wide variety of people (political commentators of course excepted). Special advisers, lawyers and journalists have a number of things in common: 1. They've seldom run anything in their lives. 2. They are used to handling briefs provided by others that may or may not have strong links to any objective truth - their purpose is often to argue for something. 3. They typically are accomplished at expressing themselves certainly in writing but often orally. 4. Their contact with people is typically on a quite narrow spectrum - people wanting to influence them or wanting their help. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 22, 2024 16:08:25 GMT
Yes, I think that's the point. Obviously, there is very little prospect of success against Labour at the moment, and in any case, that isn't the priority clearly, but assuming we do have a Labour government in the next 12 months, all governments suffer mid term blues etc, so we will want to be in position to challenge Labour when the political circumstances allow. Rochdale is a former Lib Dem seat with still something of a local government base, so if we could get 2nd in the by election, it puts us potentially in a position to challenge again in an election or two They have three councillors, representing one ward. They certainly have the potential to grow if a Labour government becomes unpopular, or there is an Iraq war-style meltdown with the local Muslim community, but it is a bit of a stretch to suggest their local government base is indicative of anything much. |
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Post by johnloony on Jan 22, 2024 16:51:08 GMT
To what extent does the baggage of Cyril Smith weigh down the LDs in Rochdale? About 29 stone |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Jan 22, 2024 16:57:21 GMT
Yes, I think that's the point. Obviously, there is very little prospect of success against Labour at the moment, and in any case, that isn't the priority clearly, but assuming we do have a Labour government in the next 12 months, all governments suffer mid term blues etc, so we will want to be in position to challenge Labour when the political circumstances allow. Rochdale is a former Lib Dem seat with still something of a local government base, so if we could get 2nd in the by election, it puts us potentially in a position to challenge again in an election or two They have three councillors, representing one ward. They certainly have to potential to grow if a Labour government becomes unpopular, or there is an Iraq war-style meltdown with the local Muslim community, but it is a bit of a stretch to suggest their local government base is indicative of anything much. True - that's why I said "something of". Having said that, looking at the most recent election figures which were all ups, there were a number of wards where they were a reasonably competitive second to Labour, and I presume those were Rochdale wards rather than from other constituencies, so there would seem to be the potential to grow (although the figures are complicated by there being several wards where either the Tories or the Lib Dems did not run full slates) |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 23, 2024 9:48:05 GMT
They have three councillors, representing one ward. They certainly have to potential to grow if a Labour government becomes unpopular, or there is an Iraq war-style meltdown with the local Muslim community, but it is a bit of a stretch to suggest their local government base is indicative of anything much. True - that's why I said "something of". Having said that, looking at the most recent election figures which were all ups, there were a number of wards where they were a reasonably competitive second to Labour, and I presume those were Rochdale wards rather than from other constituencies, so there would seem to be the potential to grow (although the figures are complicated by there being several wards where either the Tories or the Lib Dems did not run full slates) The most recent elections were in 2023, not the 2022 all-ups. In 2022, they came second in the following wards: Central Rochdale (694 votes behind Labour 3) Milkstone & Deeplish (347 votes behind Labour 3) North Heywood (not in the Rochdale constituency, only Labour and the LDs stood candidates) Smallbridge & Firgrove (457 votes behind Labour 3) Spotland & Falinge (628 votes behind Labour 3) In 2023, they held second place in all of those bar North Heywood (where they didn't stand) but mostly fell back considerably: 1886 votes behind Labour in Central Rochdale 1666 votes behind Labour in Milkstone & Deeplish 547 votes behind Labour in Smallbridge & Firgrove 336 votes behind Labour in Spotland & Falinge Beyond their redoubt in Milnrow & Newhey, their best prospects all seem to be Rochdale wards with reasonably large Muslim populations, but it looks like they did better with that community in 2022 than 2023. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Jan 23, 2024 12:22:55 GMT
Thanks for the correction - you're right, don't know why I missed th3 2023 elections. Spotland still pretty competitive but the others rather less so. Even so, that still gives a bit of a base for a campaign
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 23, 2024 12:41:52 GMT
Spotland used to be a Liberal/Lib Dem banker. I remember when they first lost the ward in 2010 I commented that I couldn't ever remember that ward voting other than Liberal and I think Al said they'd held it for 100 years or something.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 23, 2024 13:48:47 GMT
To what extent does the baggage of Cyril Smith weigh down the LDs in Rochdale?It is almost 32 years since he ceased to be the local MP - and 37 years since he was last elected. Though the full extent of his nefarious deeds were only made public rather more recently. |
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Post by gaitskellite on Jan 23, 2024 17:32:43 GMT
It's a very well-trodden path to Parliament, probably next to being a lawyer or a special adviser. Ben Bradshaw, Ann Clwyd, Michael Gove, Esther McVey, Anna Soubry all spring to mind with no effort and there'll be many, many more. Yuan Yang, formerly China-Europe correspondent for the FT, is Labour candidate for Earley and Woodley (coincidentally the tipping point seat for a Labour majority) |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 23, 2024 18:31:49 GMT
Spotland used to be a Liberal/Lib Dem banker. I remember when they first lost the ward in 2010 I commented that I couldn't ever remember that ward voting other than Liberal and I think Al said they'd held it for 100 years or something. When there and Healey (a year later) both went Labour, I knew the Lib Dem game was up in Rochdale politics for the foreseeable. The loss of 26 out of 27 councillors in the coalition years local elections was a stunning collapse, and the Lib Dems are a long way from recovering from this shock. The only Lib Dem who survived was Peter Rush in North Heywood in 2914 (a sign of his remarkable workrate and local popularity (helped a bit by UKIP), and he soon defected to Labour, which was a real surprise as he was probably the most right-wing of the Lib Dem councillors. The fact that no Muslim Lab councillors have defected to the Lib Dems over Gaza may tell its own story of the perceived strength of the Rochdale party these days. I wouldn't have been massively surprised if we had a defection to the Lib Dems during byelections in the past, but it seems less likely now, though not impossible. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 23, 2024 21:17:05 GMT
When I first joined the Conservative candidate selection programme a very sound rule had only just been abolished.
The rule was that anyone employed by the party or by an MP could not apply to the candidate list. It was effectively an anti-SPaD rule.
They could however be press-ganged to stand in unwinnable seats to which they had a connection. Again, very wise.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 24, 2024 13:19:44 GMT
To what extent does the baggage of Cyril Smith weigh down the LDs in Rochdale?It is almost 32 years since he ceased to be the local MP - and 37 years since he was last elected. The issue with Smith isn't so much that but rather that a) he was very much Mr Liberal in the town and a critical part of the party's brand there long after he ceased to be an MP and that b) the revelations about him happened to emerge at more or less the same moment as the LibDem vote started going into meltdown in lower income constituencies where they had a traditional vote across the board: that wasn't even just a Pennine issue, consider e.g. also Hereford. So the impact on the party brand in the town was absolutely catastrophic. This doesn't preclude a future revival there (some elements remain in place, at least in a vestigial form) but does explain why the collapse was as total and as dramatic as it was. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 24, 2024 13:46:27 GMT
What would a liberal revival look like in a town like Rochdale? What policies would they champion? None of the things that the Lib Dems care about are things that resonate in a town like Rochdale.
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