Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 24, 2024 13:52:17 GMT
What would a liberal revival look like in a town like Rochdale? What policies would they champion? None of the things that the Lib Dems care about are things that resonate in a town like Rochdale. In Rochdale it was only ever machine politics after a certain point the first time around. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jan 24, 2024 15:26:58 GMT
I actually saw a couple of pictures of Cyril Smith in his latter years the other day, he certainly lost a lot of weight didn’t he?
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Post by agedlikewine on Jan 24, 2024 16:11:43 GMT
What would a liberal revival look like in a town like Rochdale? What policies would they champion? None of the things that the Lib Dems care about are things that resonate in a town like Rochdale. LibDems prise themselves on being both sceptical of big corporations and big government. I think Rochdale is an example of a place screwed over by both. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jan 24, 2024 17:24:37 GMT
To what extent does the baggage of Cyril Smith weigh down the LDs in Rochdale?It is almost 32 years since he ceased to be the local MP - and 37 years since he was last elected. The issue with Smith isn't so much that but rather that a) he was very much Mr Liberal in the town and a critical part of the party's brand there long after he ceased to be an MP and that b) the revelations about him happened to emerge at more or less the same moment as the LibDem vote started going into meltdown in lower income constituencies where they had a traditional vote across the board: that wasn't even just a Pennine issue, consider e.g. also Hereford. So the impact on the party brand in the town was absolutely catastrophic. This doesn't preclude a future revival there (some elements remain in place, at least in a vestigial form) but does explain why the collapse was as total and as dramatic as it was. Liberal strength in Rochdale does ,of course, pre-date Smith . It certainly goes back to the 1958 by election there when Ludovic Kennedy led a strong challenge. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 24, 2024 19:42:15 GMT
To what extent does the baggage of Cyril Smith weigh down the LDs in Rochdale?It is almost 32 years since he ceased to be the local MP - and 37 years since he was last elected. The issue with Smith isn't so much that but rather that a) he was very much Mr Liberal in the town and a critical part of the party's brand there long after he ceased to be an MP and that b) the revelations about him happened to emerge at more or less the same moment as the LibDem vote started going into meltdown in lower income constituencies where they had a traditional vote across the board: that wasn't even just a Pennine issue, consider e.g. also Hereford. So the impact on the party brand in the town was absolutely catastrophic. This doesn't preclude a future revival there (some elements remain in place, at least in a vestigial form) but does explain why the collapse was as total and as dramatic as it was. I'm sure he would have been to begin with but are you sure about that later on? In 1987 his majority dropped to 2,779 from 7,587, which probably prompted him to retire, and his successor in '92 only won by 1,839, which is not long after (though the counter-argument could also apply in that she didn't have whatever incumbency bonus he may have had). I also recall seeing somewhere that back when Bamford and Norden were in the constituency (I think they went to H&M in '97), being massively Tory wards on a council level, they 'voted tactically' for Smith to keep Labour out at general elections, of course an unthinkable concept in this day and age of 'progressive alliances' and all that. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jan 24, 2024 20:47:15 GMT
The issue with Smith isn't so much that but rather that a) he was very much Mr Liberal in the town and a critical part of the party's brand there long after he ceased to be an MP and that b) the revelations about him happened to emerge at more or less the same moment as the LibDem vote started going into meltdown in lower income constituencies where they had a traditional vote across the board: that wasn't even just a Pennine issue, consider e.g. also Hereford. So the impact on the party brand in the town was absolutely catastrophic. This doesn't preclude a future revival there (some elements remain in place, at least in a vestigial form) but does explain why the collapse was as total and as dramatic as it was. I'm sure he would have been to begin with but are you sure about that later on? In 1987 his majority dropped to 2,779 from 7,587, which probably prompted him to retire, and his successor in '92 only won by 1,839, which is not long after (though the counter-argument could also apply in that she didn't have whatever incumbency bonus he may have had). I also recall seeing somewhere that back when Bamford and Norden were in the constituency (I think they went to H&M in '97), being massively Tory wards on a council level, they 'voted tactically' for Smith to keep Labour out at general elections, of course an unthinkable concept in this day and age of 'progressive alliances' and all that. On the other hand, Smith's majority fell to 2,750 in October 1974 - having been nearly 9,000 at the February 74 election. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 24, 2024 21:50:47 GMT
LibDems prise themselves on being both sceptical of big corporations and big government. I think Rochdale is an example of a place screwed over by both. The latter is true, but the former has been exposed by their current leader who seemed very happy to believe both big corporations and big government at the expense of postmasters. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jan 24, 2024 21:57:46 GMT
I also recall seeing somewhere that back when Bamford and Norden were in the constituency (I think they went to H&M in '97), being massively Tory wards on a council level, they 'voted tactically' for Smith to keep Labour out at general elections, of course an unthinkable concept in this day and age of 'progressive alliances' and all that. Yes. From 1983 until 1997 Heywood & Middleton consisted of the two towns, while Rochdale consisted mostly of Rochdale proper and was really only slightly expanded from the seat Smith had first won in 1972. The eastern parts of the borough (Littleborough, Milnrow etc.) were of course in Littleborough & Saddleworth. In 1997 Littleborough & Saddleworth was abolished and Littleborough added to Rochdale, with Castleton as well as Bamford and Norden transferred to H & M; Milnrow stayed with Saddleworth at that point but followed Littleborough to Rochdale in 2010, when a bit more of western Rochdale went into H & M. (And now H & M, or rather H & M N, is going to pick up even more of Rochdale.) Although thanks to the 1995 by-election the area added actually had a Lib Dem MP, the notional 1992 result for the new boundaries nearly wiped out Liz Lynne's already quite small majority. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 24, 2024 22:08:15 GMT
I also recall seeing somewhere that back when Bamford and Norden were in the constituency (I think they went to H&M in '97), being massively Tory wards on a council level, they 'voted tactically' for Smith to keep Labour out at general elections, of course an unthinkable concept in this day and age of 'progressive alliances' and all that. Yes. From 1983 until 1997 Heywood & Middleton consisted of the two towns, while Rochdale consisted mostly of Rochdale proper and was really only slightly expanded from the seat Smith had first won in 1972. The eastern parts of the borough (Littleborough, Milnrow etc.) were of course in Littleborough & Saddleworth. In 1997 Littleborough & Saddleworth was abolished and Littleborough added to Rochdale, with Castleton as well as Bamford and Norden transferred to H & M; Milnrow stayed with Saddleworth at that point but followed Littleborough to Rochdale in 2010, when a bit more of western Rochdale went into H & M. (And now H & M, or rather H & M N, is going to pick up even more of Rochdale.) Although thanks to the 1995 by-election the area added actually had a Lib Dem MP, the notional 1992 result for the new boundaries nearly wiped out Liz Lynne's already quite small majority. The boundary changes ahead of the 2010 election (the main one being the addition of Milnrow) did wipe out Paul Rowan's small majority - ironic given that is the only Lib Dem ward in the borough now |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 24, 2024 22:12:14 GMT
I also recall seeing somewhere that back when Bamford and Norden were in the constituency (I think they went to H&M in '97), being massively Tory wards on a council level, they 'voted tactically' for Smith to keep Labour out at general elections, of course an unthinkable concept in this day and age of 'progressive alliances' and all that. Yes. From 1983 until 1997 Heywood & Middleton consisted of the two towns, while Rochdale consisted mostly of Rochdale proper and was really only slightly expanded from the seat Smith had first won in 1972. The eastern parts of the borough (Littleborough, Milnrow etc.) were of course in Littleborough & Saddleworth. In 1997 Littleborough & Saddleworth was abolished and Littleborough added to Rochdale, with Castleton as well as Bamford and Norden transferred to H & M; Milnrow stayed with Saddleworth at that point but followed Littleborough to Rochdale in 2010, when a bit more of western Rochdale went into H & M. (And now H & M, or rather H & M N, is going to pick up even more of Rochdale.) Although thanks to the 1995 by-election the area added actually had a Lib Dem MP, the notional 1992 result for the new boundaries nearly wiped out Liz Lynne's already quite small majority. On the old boundaries it switched Rochdale from Lib Dem -> Labour, but had there been no boundary changes Rochdale would have been a Labour gain anyway, and Oldham East & Saddleworth would have been a Lib Dem gain. Odd how these things turn out. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jan 24, 2024 22:43:00 GMT
Yes. From 1983 until 1997 Heywood & Middleton consisted of the two towns, while Rochdale consisted mostly of Rochdale proper and was really only slightly expanded from the seat Smith had first won in 1972. The eastern parts of the borough (Littleborough, Milnrow etc.) were of course in Littleborough & Saddleworth. In 1997 Littleborough & Saddleworth was abolished and Littleborough added to Rochdale, with Castleton as well as Bamford and Norden transferred to H & M; Milnrow stayed with Saddleworth at that point but followed Littleborough to Rochdale in 2010, when a bit more of western Rochdale went into H & M. (And now H & M, or rather H & M N, is going to pick up even more of Rochdale.) Although thanks to the 1995 by-election the area added actually had a Lib Dem MP, the notional 1992 result for the new boundaries nearly wiped out Liz Lynne's already quite small majority. On the old boundaries it switched Rochdale from Lib Dem -> Labour, but had there been no boundary changes Rochdale would have been a Labour gain anyway, and Oldham East & Saddleworth would have been a Lib Dem gain. Odd how these things turn out. I presume you mean the 2010 boundary changes here. (In the quoted post, I was talking about 1997.) But how would Littleborough & Saddleworth have voted in 1997 had it still existed? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 24, 2024 23:22:35 GMT
On the old boundaries it switched Rochdale from Lib Dem -> Labour, but had there been no boundary changes Rochdale would have been a Labour gain anyway, and Oldham East & Saddleworth would have been a Lib Dem gain. Odd how these things turn out. I presume you mean the 2010 boundary changes here. (In the quoted post, I was talking about 1997.) But how would Littleborough & Saddleworth have voted in 1997 had it still existed? Labour. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 24, 2024 23:30:19 GMT
I had a look at the areas of Liberal strength in Rochdale during the Cyril Smith / Liz Lynne era. The running theme seems to be that, aside from Spotland ward, the Liberals didn't really establish themselves permanently in one area, and did not do well in local elections generally. Only in 1982, 1983, 1992 and 1994 did they win a majority of wards in the constituency. Here are the number of councillors elected in the constituency and the wards won by Liberals:
1973: Lab 13, C 7, L 7 (All three in Central and Falinge, Spotland; one in Castleton)
1975: Lab 3, L 3, C 3 (Central and Falinge, Healey, Spotland)
1976: C 4, L 3, Lab 2 (Central and Falinge, Spotland, Smallbridge)
1978: Lab 5, C 2, L 2 (Central and Falinge, Spotland)
1979: Lab 6, L 2, C 1 (Central and Falinge, Spotland)
1980: Lab 6, L 2, C 1 (Central and Falinge, Spotland)
1982: L 6, Lab 2, C 1 (Brimrod and Deeplish, Castleton, Central and Falinge, Healey, Smallbridge and Wardleworth, Spotland)
1983: L 5, C 2, Lab 2 (Brimrod and Deeplish, Castleton, Central and Falinge, Healey, Spotland)
1984: Lab 5, L 3, C 1 (Central and Falinge, Healey, Spotland)
1986: Lab 5, L 3, C 1 (Castleton, Healey, Spotland)
1987: L 4, Lab 3, C 2 (Brimrod and Deeplish, Castleton, Spotland)
1988: Lab 6, SLD 2, C 1 (Healey, Spotland)
1990: Lab 5, SLD 3, C 1 (Brimrod and Deeplish, Castleton, Spotland)
1991: L Dem 4, Lab 3, C 2 (Brimrod and Deeplish, Castleton, Healey, Spotland)
1992: L Dem 7, C 2 (Brimrod and Deeplish, Castleton, Central and Falinge, Healey, Newbold, Smallbridge and Wardleworth, Spotland)
1994: L Dem 5, Lab 3, C 1 (Brimrod and Deeplish, Castleton, Healey, Newbold, Spotland)
1995: Lab 4, L Dem 4, C 1 (Brimrod and Deeplish, Castleton, Healey, Spotland)
1996: Lab 5, L Dem 3, C 1 (Brimrod and Deeplish, Healey, Spotland)
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 24, 2024 23:42:00 GMT
Yes, exactly. It was always a matter of precarious alliances and careful coalition management. The cultivation of elements in the Pakistani community became important early on and I suppose must have been a matter of chance: it happened that they largely lived in the central wards where the Liberals were already strongest going into the 1970s.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 24, 2024 23:56:07 GMT
On the old boundaries it switched Rochdale from Lib Dem -> Labour, but had there been no boundary changes Rochdale would have been a Labour gain anyway, and Oldham East & Saddleworth would have been a Lib Dem gain. Odd how these things turn out. I presume you mean the 2010 boundary changes here. (In the quoted post, I was talking about 1997.) But how would Littleborough & Saddleworth have voted in 1997 had it still existed? Indeed I was talking about 2010 - slight brain fade on my part there! Littleborough & Saddleworth would quite clearly have voted Lib Dem in 1997 if you were to construct a notional, and, given the fairly close miss from Chris Davies in Oldham East, there is little reason to imagine a different result had the seat continued to exist. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jan 25, 2024 7:38:02 GMT
Labour shortlist:
Azhar Ali, Lancashire county councillor (Nelson East division)
Nazia Rehman, Wigan councillor (Abram ward)
Paul Waugh, political journalist
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 25, 2024 9:42:26 GMT
Labour shortlist: Azhar Ali, Lancashire county councillor (Nelson East division) Nazia Rehman, Wigan councillor (Abram ward) Paul Waugh, political journalist Azhar Ali tried for Heywood and Middleton with, if I remember correctly, little actual support. Bot sure what his links to Rochdale are. Nazia Rehman seems a pleasant and competent enough Wigan Cabinet member. Not sure of her Rochdale connections. Paul Waugh is a good journalist, I never realised he was a Labour member, though I am now awsre he grew up in Rochdale. Whilst, as I have stated many times, the best candidate is not necessarily the local candidate, I am surprised that they weren't able to find anybody considered capable enough to shortlist from the Rochdale Labour Party. |
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Post by Yaffles on Jan 25, 2024 9:52:45 GMT
Labour shortlist: Azhar Ali, Lancashire county councillor (Nelson East division) Nazia Rehman, Wigan councillor (Abram ward) Paul Waugh, political journalist Azhar Ali tried for Heywood and Middleton with, if I remember correctly, little actual support. Bot sure what his links to Rochdale are. Nazia Rehman seems a pleasant and competent enough Wigan Cabinet member. Not sure of her Rochdale connections. Paul Waugh is a good journalist, I never realised he was a Labour member, though I am now awsre he grew up in Rochdale. Whilst, as I have stated many times, the best candidate is not necessarily the local candidate, I am surprised that they weren't able to find anybody considered capable enough to shortlist from the Rochdale Labour Party. I rather suspect they weren't trying very hard to find a local alternative, this is how the leadership ensures that their man/woman gets the nod. A tactic as old as time (or at least electoral politics). |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Jan 25, 2024 10:23:16 GMT
Labour shortlist: Azhar Ali, Lancashire county councillor (Nelson East division) Nazia Rehman, Wigan councillor (Abram ward) Paul Waugh, political journalist Azhar Ali tried for Heywood and Middleton with, if I remember correctly, little actual support. Bot sure what his links to Rochdale are. Nazia Rehman seems a pleasant and competent enough Wigan Cabinet member. Not sure of her Rochdale connections. Paul Waugh is a good journalist, I never realised he was a Labour member, though I am now awsre he grew up in Rochdale. Whilst, as I have stated many times, the best candidate is not necessarily the local candidate, I am surprised that they weren't able to find anybody considered capable enough to shortlist from the Rochdale Labour Party. Ali got 12 votes in Heywood and Middleton selection (the winner got 135 votes) Rehman was on the Leigh shortlist. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 25, 2024 10:38:39 GMT
Azhar Ali tried for Heywood and Middleton with, if I remember correctly, little actual support. Bot sure what his links to Rochdale are. Nazia Rehman seems a pleasant and competent enough Wigan Cabinet member. Not sure of her Rochdale connections. Paul Waugh is a good journalist, I never realised he was a Labour member, though I am now awsre he grew up in Rochdale. Whilst, as I have stated many times, the best candidate is not necessarily the local candidate, I am surprised that they weren't able to find anybody considered capable enough to shortlist from the Rochdale Labour Party. I rather suspect they weren't trying very hard to find a local alternative, this is how the leadership ensures that their man/woman gets the nod. A tactic as old as time (or at least electoral politics). Well, of course, just suprised the paper candidates go along with it. |
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