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Post by finsobruce on Jan 19, 2024 0:05:03 GMT
I see that the Wikipedia page for this by-election says that Rochdale "is part of a Labour stronghold known as the red wall". Good Lord. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Jan 19, 2024 2:06:50 GMT
And now it doesn't.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 19, 2024 8:03:47 GMT
Might the Greens hold their deposit here? They have in some of the recent byelections and could pick up more votes in some of the ‘greener’ areas e.g Littleborough. I know they haven’t had a LD base but could be a destination for those put off Labour and LDs. Highly unlikely, I would guess - Rochdale is pretty weak part of the country for us at any level. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 19, 2024 10:17:05 GMT
I have no insider knowledge and it hasn't been discussed in the yellow room at all yet, but I can't imagine us sitting this one out. There is some local council base in the seat, albeit obviously nothing like it once was, and as various have said upthread, we'd surely want a decent result to position ourselves for when Labour seats become more feasible for us in a time of likely Labour government I suspect the yellow team may be wasting their time and cash if this is the case. Too much water has run under the bridge since they last won it and the reputation of Smith which wasn't known at the time (partly due it being covered up by his successors) means the brand is tarnished beyond repair (and that's before we get to the coalition). I would suspect they'll lose their deposit and be overtaken by one or more of the right wing pro-Brexit, anti immigration parties (whatever they're called this week). The difference between the Liberal party of the 1950s and the Lib Dems post 2015 is the Liberals had a proper core in a variety of seats including places like Rochdale where the thought of polling 7% would be laughably dismissed. It's what decades of transactional politics and a disastrous record of governing in the coalition - which is still unravelling currently (witness the horizon scandal) does to you. This is demonstrably untrue. The Liberal Party in the Pennines in the 1950s was dependent on anti-Labour pacts. They didn't have a core vote, they just had enough organisation for it to be worth the local Tories doing the occasional deal with them. In contrast, the post-2015 Lib Dems have much more of a core vote, it's just that none of it lives anywhere near Rochdale. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jan 19, 2024 12:28:00 GMT
Such core vote as the party had in the 50s was in a handful of rural areas where traditional nonconformity remained strong and Labour had largely not established itself as an alternative - ie parts of Devon & Cornwall (and far from all of those areas) and parts of rural Welsh speaking Wales. What created an opportunity in Rochdale was a by-election with a high profile candidate in 1958. In 1955, the Liberals didn't fight it - don't see how you extrapolate that into an example of a "proper core in a variety of seats"
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jan 19, 2024 12:39:03 GMT
Well, they don't have a Rochdale by-election with Labour in government, but they do have one now, and getting back up from 7% to at least 20% in a by election would be groundwork for further work on the seat under a Labour govt. It is possible that, if Gaza is ongoing, a strong vote will go to the Lib Dems, as it did in 2005 when the Lib Dems gained the seat on the basis of unhappiness over the Iraq invasion, but many Muslim voters stuck with Labour even then. My experience of the Rochdale mosques is that they are not as ideological as ones in many other areas, including where I now live. I would be surprised if Labour didn't win very comfortably. It will be interesting to see who the candidates are. Could see there being a problem next door in Oldham though... |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 19, 2024 14:00:29 GMT
It is possible that, if Gaza is ongoing, a strong vote will go to the Lib Dems, as it did in 2005 when the Lib Dems gained the seat on the basis of unhappiness over the Iraq invasion, but many Muslim voters stuck with Labour even then. My experience of the Rochdale mosques is that they are not as ideological as ones in many other areas, including where I now live. I would be surprised if Labour didn't win very comfortably. It will be interesting to see who the candidates are. Could see there being a problem next door in Oldham though... Indeed - the only time I had problems with aggressive types were when they attended a meeting in Rochdale but it turned out they were from an Oldham-situated Muslim youth group. They were told to shut up. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 21, 2024 22:16:57 GMT
Candidate rumours:
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 21, 2024 22:22:43 GMT
Why would he? He is a very respected politics reporter, at the top of his game. Also, does he have an actual connection to Rochdale? A serious question as I do not know. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 21, 2024 22:29:04 GMT
That isn't asked nor answered in the tweets though I'm sure somebody will have a response! I've no clue.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 21, 2024 22:51:05 GMT
Why would he? He is a very respected politics reporter, at the top of his game. Also, does he have an actual connection to Rochdale? A serious question as I do not know. The answer (from the slightly unexpected source of the Rochdale Development Agency) is Yes.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 21, 2024 22:57:17 GMT
Not his connection to Rochdale that worries me but his lack of history with the Labour Party.
And the fact that good journalists seldom make good politicians (there are shining exceptions such as Michael Foot).
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jan 21, 2024 23:11:13 GMT
Not his connection to Rochdale that worries me but his lack of history with the Labour Party. And the fact that good journalists seldom make good politicians (there are shining exceptions such as Michael Foot). Maybe Austin Mitchell and William Deedes. |
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Post by batman on Jan 21, 2024 23:25:11 GMT
Dick Crossman?
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jan 22, 2024 0:01:13 GMT
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skyep
Non-Aligned
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Post by skyep on Jan 22, 2024 11:36:13 GMT
putting in an effort for the ld's here might be worthwile if they can snatch back second place over the tories?
would help them to make the argument that a lib vote isn't a wasted vote.
but as mentioned, just depends on resources in a general election year.
would imagine they might start putting in appeals for donations about it and run a campaign that matches the increase in donations?
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 22, 2024 11:39:49 GMT
Michael Crick (@tomorrowsmps) has also added these names to the potential Rochdale selections for Labour | Paul Waugh | Political commentator and journalist, as mentioned earlier | | Azhar Ali | Lancashire Cllr | | Dalaat Ali | Rochdale MBC Deputy Leader | | Luthfur Rahman | Manchester CC Deputy Leader | | Yasmine Dar | Manchester Cllr | | Eamonn O'Brien | Bury MBC Leader | | Zahid Chauhan | Oldham Cllr |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jan 22, 2024 11:40:18 GMT
Yes, I think that's the point. Obviously, there is very little prospect of success against Labour at the moment, and in any case, that isn't the priority clearly, but assuming we do have a Labour government in the next 12 months, all governments suffer mid term blues etc, so we will want to be in position to challenge Labour when the political circumstances allow. Rochdale is a former Lib Dem seat with still something of a local government base, so if we could get 2nd in the by election, it puts us potentially in a position to challenge again in an election or two
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 22, 2024 11:43:57 GMT
Barbara Castle had a minor journalistic career. Bill Deedes's achievements in politics are difficult to discern. Austin Mitchell was a lighthearted local TV broadcaster turned unpromoted backbench MP.
Had Crossman's two great reforms (the Redcliff-Maud local government review and the earnings-related supplement to state pensions) happened as he intended them, then he would have a claim to be a success as a politician. Unfortunately both were to be frustrated.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jan 22, 2024 12:12:31 GMT
Clive Lewis was a BBC local correspondent. I discovered this when listening to coverage of the 2008 local elections
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