graham
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Post by graham on Jan 18, 2024 0:13:58 GMT
I am not expecting it to happen again but the Liberals did take the seat from Labour in October 1972 under a Tory Government.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 18, 2024 0:27:25 GMT
I am not expecting it to happen again but the Liberals did take the seat from Labour in October 1972 under a Tory Government. I think this time people will be asking the Liberal candidate for their views on the asbestos industry and on corporal punishment of children. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jan 18, 2024 1:00:47 GMT
It’s unlikely to be worth their while until Labour are back in government Well, they don't have a Rochdale by-election with Labour in government, but they do have one now, and getting back up from 7% to at least 20% in a by election would be groundwork for further work on the seat under a Labour govt. I suppose it depends what their resources are like and whether they can be spared really, obviously this will be a by-election but with the General Election due this year the Lib Dems already seem to be pouring everything into 'Blue Wall' campaigning |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jan 18, 2024 1:12:11 GMT
I am not expecting it to happen again but the Liberals did take the seat from Labour in October 1972 under a Tory Government. I guess the timing would be the obvious difference there, Labour being in government would still have been fairly fresh in the memory since it was only 1970. Whereas we're almost at 14 years since Labour were in power now, then of course there's still the coalition memories. But I think the Lib Dems will start to make up some ground in Labour seats again the longer Labour are in government. No doubt the Greens will be hoping to be a threat then as well but they clearly still don't have anywhere near the type of machine the Lib Dems do for by-elections and seat targetting |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 18, 2024 8:41:56 GMT
There are certain narrative points in Rochdale relating to safeguarding and immigration which will likely attract a few fringe candidates, if an election is called here prior to the general.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 18, 2024 9:54:26 GMT
I did wonder a few months back whether Nazir Afzal might consider standing for Labour, but his social media presence lately doesn't particularly suggest he's gearing up for a parliamentary run.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 18, 2024 10:32:16 GMT
There are certain narrative points in Rochdale relating to safeguarding and immigration which will likely attract a few fringe candidates, if an election is called here prior to the general. Whilst the press speak of Rochdale, the abuse issue relates particularly to Heywood which is a distinct town in a different constituency. The creation of metropolitan boroughs have not always created a sense of unity, Heywood looks to Bury, Middleton to Manchester and Rochdale to itself. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 18, 2024 10:43:41 GMT
It’s unlikely to be worth their while until Labour are back in government Well, they don't have a Rochdale by-election with Labour in government, but they do have one now, and getting back up from 7% to at least 20% in a by election would be groundwork for further work on the seat under a Labour govt. It is possible that, if Gaza is ongoing, a strong vote will go to the Lib Dems, as it did in 2005 when the Lib Dems gained the seat on the basis of unhappiness over the Iraq invasion, but many Muslim voters stuck with Labour even then. My experience of the Rochdale mosques is that they are not as ideological as ones in many other areas, including where I now live. I would be surprised if Labour didn't win very comfortably. It will be interesting to see who the candidates are. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Jan 18, 2024 10:45:45 GMT
I have no insider knowledge and it hasn't been discussed in the yellow room at all yet, but I can't imagine us sitting this one out. There is some local council base in the seat, albeit obviously nothing like it once was, and as various have said upthread, we'd surely want a decent result to position ourselves for when Labour seats become more feasible for us in a time of likely Labour government
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2024 10:50:06 GMT
There are certain narrative points in Rochdale relating to safeguarding and immigration which will likely attract a few fringe candidates, if an election is called here prior to the general. Whilst the press speak of Rochdale, the abuse issue relates particularly to Heywood which is a distinct town in a different constituency. The creation of metropolitan boroughs have not always created a sense of unity, Heywood looks to Bury, Middleton to Manchester and Rochdale to itself. IN other words the victims mostly lived in Heywood & Middleton - the perpetrators mostly live here |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 18, 2024 10:55:05 GMT
Whilst the press speak of Rochdale, the abuse issue relates particularly to Heywood which is a distinct town in a different constituency. The creation of metropolitan boroughs have not always created a sense of unity, Heywood looks to Bury, Middleton to Manchester and Rochdale to itself. IN other words the victims mostly lived in Heywood & Middleton - the perpetrators mostly live here Yes, you are right. I was unforgivably clumsy in my phrasing. Sadly though, I suspect that the issue won't be treated with the seriousness it deserves in the coming byelection. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 18, 2024 12:13:14 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 18, 2024 13:42:46 GMT
I feel a batley and spen coming on. Do you mean by this another Labour hold? |
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Post by owainsutton on Jan 18, 2024 17:33:21 GMT
that's true. But he doesn't tend to need much of an excuse to stand Isn't he also standing for London mayor in May, even for Galloway standards, standing for a parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester in March then going on to stand in the London Mayoral c. eight weeks later would surely be too much. We all know what happened last time he decided to try to boost his profile by standing in a parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester... |
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Post by owainsutton on Jan 18, 2024 17:35:10 GMT
There are certain narrative points in Rochdale relating to safeguarding and immigration which will likely attract a few fringe candidates, if an election is called here prior to the general. The Tory candidate for GM Mayor is already focussing on this narrative. Not sure if that's what you had in mind about 'fringe candidate'? |
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 18, 2024 18:09:46 GMT
I have no insider knowledge and it hasn't been discussed in the yellow room at all yet, but I can't imagine us sitting this one out. There is some local council base in the seat, albeit obviously nothing like it once was, and as various have said upthread, we'd surely want a decent result to position ourselves for when Labour seats become more feasible for us in a time of likely Labour government I suspect the yellow team may be wasting their time and cash if this is the case. Too much water has run under the bridge since they last won it and the reputation of Smith which wasn't known at the time (partly due it being covered up by his successors) means the brand is tarnished beyond repair (and that's before we get to the coalition). I would suspect they'll lose their deposit and be overtaken by one or more of the right wing pro-Brexit, anti immigration parties (whatever they're called this week). The difference between the Liberal party of the 1950s and the Lib Dems post 2015 is the Liberals had a proper core in a variety of seats including places like Rochdale where the thought of polling 7% would be laughably dismissed. It's what decades of transactional politics and a disastrous record of governing in the coalition - which is still unravelling currently (witness the horizon scandal) does to you. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jan 18, 2024 19:19:15 GMT
I have no insider knowledge and it hasn't been discussed in the yellow room at all yet, but I can't imagine us sitting this one out. There is some local council base in the seat, albeit obviously nothing like it once was, and as various have said upthread, we'd surely want a decent result to position ourselves for when Labour seats become more feasible for us in a time of likely Labour government I suspect the yellow team may be wasting their time and cash if this is the case. Too much water has run under the bridge since they last won it and the reputation of Smith which wasn't known at the time (partly due it being covered up by his successors) means the brand is tarnished beyond repair (and that's before we get to the coalition). I would suspect they'll lose their deposit and be overtaken by one or more of the right wing pro-Brexit, anti immigration parties (whatever they're called this week). The difference between the Liberal party of the 1950s and the Lib Dems post 2015 is the Liberals had a proper core in a variety of seats including places like Rochdale where the thought of polling 7% would be laughably dismissed. It's what decades of transactional politics and a disastrous record of governing in the coalition - which is still unravelling currently (witness the horizon scandal) does to you. All that makes sense certainly but on the other side I imagine many thought they’d killed themselves off in Tory heartlands that they used to challenge in thanks to opposing Brexit to the extent they did along with ongoing coalition reactions. Yet obviously we’ve seen the recent by-elections and they seem to have a serious shot at beating the Tories in at least a few more similar places There’s a longer way back to come from when it comes to challenging in Labour heartlands no doubt but if a majority Labour government is due to have at least a couple of terms in office then the opening is there for what is a classic party of protest. That’s a general point, obviously Rochdale there may be specific local factors like the Cyril Smith history but I don’t know enough about it personally |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 18, 2024 19:22:06 GMT
Might the Greens hold their deposit here? They have in some of the recent byelections and could pick up more votes in some of the ‘greener’ areas e.g Littleborough. I know they haven’t had a LD base but could be a destination for those put off Labour and LDs.
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YL
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Post by YL on Jan 18, 2024 23:33:19 GMT
I see that the Wikipedia page for this by-election says that Rochdale "is part of a Labour stronghold known as the red wall".
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 18, 2024 23:56:51 GMT
I see that the Wikipedia page for this by-election says that Rochdale "is part of a Labour stronghold known as the red wall". 🤮 |
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