Local Council By-elections 7th December 2023

[Tony Otim]

BROMLEY LBC; Hayes & Coney Hall (Con died)
Candidates:
CHANT, Sarah Louise (Green)
COLDSPRING-WHITE, Josh (Conservative)
GRIFFITHS, Tudor (Liberal Democrat)
MOORE, Susan Margaret (Labour)

2022: Con 2537, 2347, 2184; Lab 1552, 1171, 1049; Grn 986; LD 858, 679, 491

The Labour, Lib Dem and Green candidates all stood here last May, whilst Josh Coldspring-White stood in Penge & Cator for the Conservatives.

Current Council: Con 33; Lab 12; LD 5; Chislehurst Matters 3; Biggin Hill Ind 2; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



DENBIGHSHIRE UA; Rhyl South West (Lab died)
Candidates:
MAY, James (Labour)
PEAKE, Leslie (Conservative)
THOMAS, David Lee (Independent)

2022: Lab 529, 492; Con 246, 241; Ind 122

Leslie Peake stood for the Conservatives in Rhyl Trellewellyn last year, whilst David Thomas was the Conservative candidate in Rhyl South (there was also a David Thomas who was Labour councillor for this ward 2004-12 and stood as an independent in 2012, but I’m guessing that’s somebody else.

Current Council: Lab 16; Ind 13; PC 8; Con 7; Grn 2; Non-aligned 1; 1 vacancy



HERTFORDSHIRE CC; Harpenden Rural (Con resigned)
Candidates:
DURAN, Claudio (Conservative)
MAY, Mario (Green)
VEGRO, Symon (Labour)
WREN, Allison Frances (Liberal Democrat)

2021: Con 2833; LD 1253; Lab 531; Grn 341
2017: Con 2795; LD 868; Lab 479; Grn 190; UKIP 148

Symon Vegro was the Labour candidate here in 2021 and has contested Redbourn Ward (in this division) in recent St Albans council elections. Claudio Duran was the second Conservative candidate for Sandridge & Wheathampstead Ward (see below, also mainly in this divison) last year. The Lib Dems would have comfortably carried this division in May.

Current Council: Con 45; LD 23; Lab 7; Grn 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH NORFOLK DC; Briston (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
FLETCHER, Andrew (Liberal Democrat)
HARRIS, Philip Alan (Labour)
STENTON, Jolanda (Conservative)
WHITEHEAD, James Patrick (Green)

2023: LD 366; Con 288; Lab 56
2019: LD 408; Con 271; Lab 30

Yolanda Stenton was the runner-up for the Conservatives this May, but the incumbent elected for the Lib Dems in 2019. Also this May, Andrew Fletcher stood for the Lib Dems in Bactonand Phil Harris for Labour in Wells with Holkham.

Current council: LD 24; Con 12; Ind (Grouped) 3; 1 vacancy



ST ALBANS DC; Sandridge & Wheatampstead (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
DURAN, Claudio (Conservative)
HITCH, Oliver James (Green)
JOHNS, Simon Richard (Liberal Democrat)
MORRELL, James Elliot (Labour)

2023: LD 1213; Con 960; Grn 166; Lab 148
2022: LD 1358, 1298, 1254; Con 1240, 1125, 984; Grn 432; Lab 274

Vacancy is for the 2022-24 term. James Morrell was the Labour candidate here in May and Oliver Hitch has contested the last 2 elections here for the Greens. Caudio Duran was the second Conservative candidate here last year.

Current Council: LD 47; Con 4; Grn 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

[carolus]

Nov 13, 2023 16:56:30 GMT Tony Otim said:

Leslie Peake stood for the Conservatives in Rhyl Trellewellyn last year, whilst David Thomas was the Conservative candidate in Rhyl South (there was also a David Thomas who was Labour councillor for this ward 2004-12 and stood as an independent in 2012, but I’m guessing that’s somebody else.

Looks like it - the one standing now is David Lee Thomas, the 2004-12 one was David Anthony James Thomas.

[samdwebber]

Worth clarifying that the Conservative candidate in Hayes and Coney Hall will be described on the ballot paper according to the SOPN as "Local Conservatives"

www.bromley.gov.uk/downloads/file/2332/statement-of-persons-nominated-hayes-and-coney-hall-ward-by-election-2023

A few tweets from the local campaign trail that might be of interest to outsiders:

[Tony Otim]

Nov 17, 2023 1:43:25 GMT samdwebber said:

Worth clarifying that the Conservative candidate in Hayes and Coney Hall will be described on the ballot paper according

About half the Conservative candidates standing at the moment use that description. I just don't bother differentiating on these threads because I think it's probably more confusing than helpful...

[The Bishop]

I wonder if there is any actual evidence that putting "Local" in front of their name improves Tory electoral performance even a bit?

[Tony Otim]

For the sake of fairness, I should point out I also don't differentiate where the ballot description is for example, Liberal Democrat Focus Team or Labour and Co-operative Party or Conservative and Unionist (which crops up in the bizarrest places) tend the drop the word Scottish or Welsh from the front of UK wide parties and the supporting local people description from various localist groups. Laziness on my part should not be ruled out...

[greenchristian]

Nov 17, 2023 12:21:57 GMT The Bishop said:

I wonder if there is any actual evidence that putting "Local" in front of their name improves Tory electoral performance even a bit?

It might have a marginal effect in places where the councillors/candidates are actually known by the local community, or if the election literature successfully puts across a message that is at odds with perceptions of the national party. Which will only be a minority of winnable seats.

[greenman]

Given the last two London results I am wondering whether either the Green or LD might overtake Labour in Bromley, the lone Green was within 63 votes of overtaking the third Labour candidate and the LD just 128 behind Green in 2022. Again I ask were the results in Plaistow North and Highgate local events or a reflection of something else? Only time will tell I guess.
On Thursday in southern Ontario the social democrats lost a legislative seat to the Green party, after expelling a muslim member for declaring Israel was an apartheid state in the Ontario Legislature. Green went from 6.8% to 58.7%, while the social democrats dropped from 43.4% to 26.7%. The Conservatives went from 27.7% to 13.2% and the liberals from 20.1% to 7.7% after they voted prevent the former muslim member from speaking in the Legislature altogether.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Dec 2, 2023 18:03:38 GMT greenman said:

Given the last two London results I am wondering whether either the Green or LD might overtake Labour in Bromley

I think you may be making the mistake of detecting a nonexistent Londonwide pattern from two wholly exceptional wards.

[iain]

Dec 2, 2023 18:10:17 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Dec 2, 2023 18:03:38 GMT greenman said:

Given the last two London results I am wondering whether either the Green or LD might overtake Labour in Bromley

I think you may be making the mistake of detecting a nonexistent Londonwide pattern from two wholly exceptional wards.

Though less of a mistake than extrapolating a Londonwide pattern based on a legislative by-election in southern Ontario.

[minionofmidas]

til there's two Hayeses in London

[stodge]

Hayes and Coney Hall is an area I know from my childhood. Coney Hall was part of the West Wickham South Ward on Bromley Council while Hayes was a Ward in its own right.

The Liberals did win Hayes back in the 1960s - I believe the local chemist stood and won on one occasion. Coney Hall was always staunchly Conservative but now perhaps not so much. It's the kind of area which probably voted for Blair in large numbers.

It's been 30-40 years since I was politically active in the area so my "intel" is of historical interest only. One of the other Hayes & Coney Hall Conservative Councillors was originally elected as a Liberal Democrat but defected to the Conservatives and switched to this Ward in 2022.

[samdwebber]

It was the local *dentist* in fact: Brian Taylor, who was elected here under old boundaries in 1968.
Also elected in 1957 and 1962 before the LB of Bromley was formed.

I knew him well through the local party when I first joined. He died in 2013.
His daughter Wendy Taylor is along-serving LD Cllr in Newcastle and grand-daughter Rebecca was a LibDem MEP: www.libdemvoice.org/obituary-brian-taylor-35733.html

This is a summary of his local government career:
"Brian first stood for election to Bromley Council in 1956, was first elected in 1957 (allegedly the first Liberal Councillor in Kent), lost his seat in 1960, then regained it in 1962. During this period he was Health Committee Chair, elected by fellow councillors who thought a dentist well qualified for the role. He failed to get elected to the new London borough of Bromley Council in 1964, but was returned via a by-election in 1968."

I haven't ben able to track down the 1968 Keston and Hayes by-election result online but this article by Brian Taylor indicates he beat his Tory opponent by around 200 votes.

www.libdemvoice.org/pick-a-ward-and-win-it-in-the-1950s-67177.html

[ColinJ]

Dec 3, 2023 0:40:13 GMT samdwebber said:

It was the local *dentist* in fact: Brian Taylor, who was elected here under old boundaries in 1968.
Also elected in 1957 and 1962 before the LB of Bromley was formed.

I knew him well through the local party when I first joined. He died in 2013.
His daughter Wendy Taylor is along-serving LD Cllr in Newcastle and grand-daughter Rebecca was a LibDem MEP: www.libdemvoice.org/obituary-brian-taylor-35733.html

This is a summary of his local government career:
"Brian first stood for election to Bromley Council in 1956, was first elected in 1957 (allegedly the first Liberal Councillor in Kent), lost his seat in 1960, then regained it in 1962. During this period he was Health Committee Chair, elected by fellow councillors who thought a dentist well qualified for the role. He failed to get elected to the new London borough of Bromley Council in 1964, but was returned via a by-election in 1968."

I haven't been able to track down the 1968 Keston and Hayes by-election result online but this article by Brian Taylor indicates he beat his Tory opponent by around 200 votes.

www.libdemvoice.org/pick-a-ward-and-win-it-in-the-1950s-67177.html

The by-election you are after was held on 30 June 1966 following the resignation of Cllr. F.G. Austin (Con). 

B.H. Taylor    (L)   2,168 
M.G. Law   (C)   1,764
Mrs. D.M. Wright    (Lab)   214

Majority 404. Electors 9,642, turnout 43.0%.

Four weeks later a by-election was held in Chelsfield ward and resulted in a Conservative gain from Liberals, thus restoring the state of the parties on the Council prior to the Keston and Hayes by-election.

[Credit for this information to Davıd Boothroyd who shared his London by-election data with me in 2016.]

[batman]

There's a good way of looking up post-1964 London elections, both borough & London-wide. If you type in London Election Datastore it gives you all borough election results since then, plus all by-elections in the previous council terms - you just have to select the right year. It can be fascinating looking at old results & suddenly finding people who subsequently became really famous, e.g. Betty Boothroyd & Tessa Jowell.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Dec 3, 2023 10:07:56 GMT batman said:

There's a good way of looking up post-1964 London elections, both borough & London-wide. If you type in London Election Datastore it gives you all borough election results since then, plus all by-elections in the previous council terms - you just have to select the right year. It can be fascinating looking at old results & suddenly finding people who subsequently became really famous, e.g. Betty Boothroyd & Tessa Jowell.

The 1964 publication did not include the result of voting by candidate in each ward, and the 1968 publication does not include any byelection results between 1964 and 1968. (There are also a few byelections accidentally omitted from ensuing publications.)

[michaelarden]

Nov 17, 2023 1:43:25 GMT samdwebber said:

Worth clarifying that the Conservative candidate in Hayes and Coney Hall will be described on the ballot paper according to the SOPN as "Local Conservatives"

www.bromley.gov.uk/downloads/file/2332/statement-of-persons-nominated-hayes-and-coney-hall-ward-by-election-2023

A few tweets from the local campaign trail that might be of interest to outsiders:

I make that a Conservative 28, Labour 17 and Lib Dem 12 (including two minors).

[Crimson King]

gwynthegriff ISTR a Tudor Griffiths at Cardiff in our time, could they be the same?

[Pete Whitehead]

I drove through Sandridge and Wheathampstead yesterday (by which I do mean the villages of Sandridge and Wheathampstead, not just the ward of Sandridge & Wheathampstead). I saw zero poster boards in Sandridge and just two in neighbouring houses on Marford Road in Wheathampstead. I obviously don't read too much into poster board numbers, but I used to drive this route quite often and at the last two May elections there were many more Lib Dem boards than this - in May 2022 indeed it was the large number of Lib Dem boards in Wheathampstead especially which alerted me to the fact that they were making a serious play for the ward. Could just be down to the inclement weather of course

[samdwebber]

Dec 3, 2023 14:18:10 GMT Crimson King said:

gwynthegriff ISTR a Tudor Griffiths at Cardiff in our time, could they be the same?

He was indeed at Cardiff yes.