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Post by yellowbelly on Dec 8, 2023 9:39:16 GMT
That Hertfordshire result is a portent of what's to come for Conservative county divisions around the country in 2025. Well they will be in opposition nationally by then, so you’d think there’s a chance that it wont be quite as bad as if they were in government but they will still be defending from a high water mark. It would be in the first 6-9 months of presumably a majority Labour government. There'll either be a honeymoon period, the Tories will be tearing themselves apart or as it's mainly Lib Dem/Green facing in the shires it doesn't matter either way. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 8, 2023 10:41:49 GMT
Denbighshire, Rhyl South West
Lab 236
Ind 153
Con 71
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 8, 2023 10:51:56 GMT
That Hertfordshire result is a portent of what's to come for Conservative county divisions around the country in 2025. The Lib Dems will fancy their chances in the new Harpenden and Berkhamstead seat. |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 8, 2023 11:03:25 GMT
Meanwhile, there is this huge mystery around the Labour and Green votes in darkest North Norfolk...
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 8, 2023 11:25:34 GMT
I think the carrier pigeon to convey the paper with the results on, must have injured its wing.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 8, 2023 11:43:30 GMT
Well they will be in opposition nationally by then, so you’d think there’s a chance that it wont be quite as bad as if they were in government but they will still be defending from a high water mark. It would be in the first 6-9 months of presumably a majority Labour government. There'll either be a honeymoon period, the Tories will be tearing themselves apart or as it's mainly Lib Dem/Green facing in the shires it doesn't matter either way.Quite a few shires (especially outside Southern England) where that is not the case at all, a few unitaries and other councils up too. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 8, 2023 11:58:57 GMT
Briston
FLETCHER, Andrew Liberal Democrat 342 Elected
HARRIS, Philip Alan Labour and Co-Operative Party 15
STENTON, Jolanda Local Conservative 274
WHITEHEAD, James Patrick Green Party 64
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 8, 2023 11:59:27 GMT
NORTH NORFOLK Briston
FLETCHER, Andrew (Liberal Democrat) 342
STENTON, Jolanda (Local Conservative) 274
WHITEHEAD, James Patrick (Green Party) 64
HARRIS, Philip Alan (Labour and Co-Operative Party) 15
E. 2,067; Turnout 33.6%
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 8, 2023 12:01:40 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +146
Lab +41
Grn -16
Con -93
LDm positive everywhere they stood, with half the score coming in Hertfordshire
Lab based on a good score in Denbighshire
Green largely driven by the fall in vote share in Bromley
Con got a positive result in Bromley, slightly negative elsewhere, except Hertfordshire.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 8, 2023 12:02:58 GMT
It would be in the first 6-9 months of presumably a majority Labour government. There'll either be a honeymoon period, the Tories will be tearing themselves apart or as it's mainly Lib Dem/Green facing in the shires it doesn't matter either way.Quite a few shires (especially outside Southern England) where that is not the case at all, a few unitaries and other councils up too. I think for the LibDems especially, local results after the next GE may well be coloured by how well the GE went - due to both activist happiness/disappointment, and voter views on how strong the party is. |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 8, 2023 12:27:03 GMT
BROMLEY, Hayes and Coney Hall - C hold C 1541 Lab 962 LD 526 Grn 183 The Ontario effect in action. Wot, pray tell, is the “Ontario effect”? Google doesn’t enlighten me on the question. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 8, 2023 12:43:59 GMT
Well, that Labour vote figure in North Norfolk was worth waiting for  |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 8, 2023 12:51:30 GMT
also Denbighshire still to declare and just North Norfolk Lab & Grn votes I will guess Labour has done better in Denbighshire than in Norfolk. One thing I like about this forum is that occasionally people stick their necks out by making recklessly unlikely and implausible predictions about events which are inherently unlikely but do occasionally happen. Thusly you have not disappointed.. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 8, 2023 13:00:32 GMT
NORTH NORFOLK Briston FLETCHER, Andrew (Liberal Democrat) 342 STENTON, Jolanda (Local Conservative) 274 WHITEHEAD, James Patrick (Green Party) 64 HARRIS, Philip Alan (Labour and Co-Operative Party) 15 E. 2,067; Turnout 33.6% From Election Maps UK Briston (North Norfolk) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 49.2% (-2.3) 🌳 CON: 39.4% (-1.1) 🌍 GRN: 9.2% (New) 🌹 LAB: 2.2% (-5.7) Liberal Democrat HOLD. Changes w/ 2023. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 8, 2023 13:07:16 GMT
Denbighshire, Rhyl South West Lab 236 Ind 153 Con 71 From Election Maps UK Rhyl South West (Denbighshire) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 51.3% (-7.7) 🙋 IND: 33.3% (New) 🌳 CON: 15.4% (-12.0) No other IND (-13.6) as previous. Labour HOLD. Changes w/ 2022. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 8, 2023 13:29:45 GMT
NORTH NORFOLK Briston FLETCHER, Andrew (Liberal Democrat) 342 STENTON, Jolanda (Local Conservative) 274 WHITEHEAD, James Patrick (Green Party) 64 HARRIS, Philip Alan (Labour and Co-Operative Party) 15 E. 2,067; Turnout 33.6% Good job Harris had the support of two parties! |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 8, 2023 13:53:00 GMT
Some might have expected the collapse of the Green vote in Bromley to help Labour more, but that shows that the Green vote comes from rather surprising sources at times. Also a slight factor is that there was 1 Green candidate in a 3 seat ward in 2022 and the top Labour candidate ( who was also the candidate yesterday) considerably outpolled her running mates in 2022 suggesting a bit of Lab/ Green split ticket voting in 2022, which when faced with a need to make a choice went back to Labour. Bromley is, perhaps, more evidence that Outer London is amongst the least worst parts of the country for the Tories at the moment. Slight? Lol. Note there's also large gaps between the LD candidates' votes - while I haven't seen the total vote cast, it doesn't look like they were many Green/blank/blank votes here. The Tories polled closely together, and the effect of that silly 'highest vote method' in situations like that is to massively underreport the Tory voteshare. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 8, 2023 14:19:20 GMT
Also a slight factor is that there was 1 Green candidate in a 3 seat ward in 2022 and the top Labour candidate ( who was also the candidate yesterday) considerably outpolled her running mates in 2022 suggesting a bit of Lab/ Green split ticket voting in 2022, which when faced with a need to make a choice went back to Labour. Bromley is, perhaps, more evidence that Outer London is amongst the least worst parts of the country for the Tories at the moment. Slight? Lol. Note there's also large gaps between the LD candidates' votes - while I haven't seen the total vote cast, it doesn't look like they were many Green/blank/blank votes here. The Tories polled closely together, and the effect of that silly 'highest vote method' in situations like that is to massively underreport the Tory voteshare. It does a bit but I wouldn’t say massively. The Tory share in 2022 on highest vote is 43% but the Tory candidates got the support of 52%, 48% and 45% of voters respectively. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Dec 8, 2023 15:15:58 GMT
Also a slight factor is that there was 1 Green candidate in a 3 seat ward in 2022 and the top Labour candidate ( who was also the candidate yesterday) considerably outpolled her running mates in 2022 suggesting a bit of Lab/ Green split ticket voting in 2022, which when faced with a need to make a choice went back to Labour. Bromley is, perhaps, more evidence that Outer London is amongst the least worst parts of the country for the Tories at the moment. Slight? Lol. Note there's also large gaps between the LD candidates' votes - while I haven't seen the total vote cast, it doesn't look like they were many Green/blank/blank votes here. The Tories polled closely together, and the effect of that silly 'highest vote method' in situations like that is to massively underreport the Tory voteshare. I agree absolutely that the "highest vote" method of calculating the support of a political party at a multi-vacancy election leaves a lot to be desired. In the case of Hayes and Coney Hall in 2022 the method undoubtedly overstates the strength of the Green Party as a result of their single candidate attracting all Green/Other split ticket voters. Nor is the "average vote" method particularly satisfactory either. It is a problem that has exercised me for a long time; in the end my preference is to consider the popularity of each candidate individually, as a percentage of those voting, by dividing the number of votes the candidate receives by the number of ballot papers issued (and multiplying by 100 to get a percentage). So looking at Hayes and Coney Hall in 2022 we have (note the small error in the Con 1 vote in the original post in this thread): 12,106 electors, 4,859 BPs issued, turnout 40.1% | Con 1 | 2,527 | 52.0% | | Con 2 | 2,347 | 48.3% | | Con 3 | 2,184 | 44.9% | | Lab 1 | 1,552 | 31.9% | | Lab 2 | 1,171 | 24.1% | | Lab 3 | 1,049 | 21.6% | | Green | 986 | 20.3% | | LD 1 | 858 | 17.7% | | LD 2 | 679 | 14.0% | | LD 3 | 491 | 10.1% |
So, we can see the Conservative candidates' vote share is in the range 44.9 to 52.0%, for Labour 21.6 to 31.9%, for Lib Dems 10.1 to 17.7%. Applying the same methodology to the 2023 by-election we get 12,063 electors, 3,220 BPs issued, turnout 26.7%. | Con | 1,541 | 47.9% | | Lab | 962 | 29.9% | | LD | 526 | 16.3% | | Green | 183 | 5.7% |
So, we have to make a nuanced judgment...... the Con performance in the by-election was worse compared to two of their three candidates at the 2022 election; for Labour and the Lib Dems it was better for two out of three of their candidates compared to the previous year. The real losers appear to be the Greens; what they 'gained' by having a single candidate in 2022 disappears when every elector has one vote. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 8, 2023 15:16:21 GMT
Numbers updated following the contests this week.
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 7th December , there have now been 108 ordinary by elections for 109 seats since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 27- Held 8 and lost 19: 5 to the Greens, 9 to the Lib Dems 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 30%) and have gained 6
Labour have defended 41- Held 31 and lost 10: 3 to the Conservatives, 4 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dems and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 76%) and have gained 8
Lib Dems have defended 15 : Held 13 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 87%) and have gained 15
Greens have defended 9- Held 5 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 56%) and have gained 8
There have been elections for 6 seats previously held by Independents: 3 have been won by an another Independent , 1 each were lost to the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the Greens. . And Independents have gained 7
Residents/ local groups have defended 5, held 4 and lost 1 to the Lib Dems
SNP have defended 4 Lost 4, 1 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 1, held 1
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dems
Overall net changes
Con -13
Lab -2
LD +13
Green +4
Ind + 4
SNP -4
Res/ local groups -1
Vectis -1
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