Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 6, 2023 14:18:29 GMT
CAMDEN LBC; Highgate (Grn resigned)
Candidates:
FEYESA, Wakjira Fekadu (Conservatives)
LEMAN, Tricia (Labour)
MONK, Farrell (Liberal Democrat)
RUSSELL, Lorna Jane (Green)
2022: Grn 1967, 1460, 929; Lab 1898, 1809, 1527; Con 431, 403, 380; LD 206, 188, 172
Lorna Russell was the second Green here in 2022 and was formerly councillor (elected as Labour) for Fortune Green ward. Farrell Monk stood for the Lib Dems in Bloomsbury ward last May.
Current Council: Lab 46; LD 5; Con 3; 1 vacancy
DURHAM UA; Dawdon (Lab died)
Candidates:
ARTHUR, Bob (Independent)
RAYNER, Josh (Conservative)
VILA, Roger Francois (Liberal Democrat)
WATSON, June (Labour)
2021: Lab 1043, 1035; Seaham Community Party 689, 542; Con 333
Jun 17by: Lab 693; Seaham CP 633
2017: Lab 886, 812; Seaham CP 710, 520; Con 209; Grn 117
2013: Lab 1115, 993; Ind 829.
Bob Arthur has stood here in every election since 2013 as an independent or for Seaham Community Party. The 2017 by-election here was slightly unusual in that it was won by the councillor who had vacated the seat to cause the by-election – I believe she had initially been declared ineligible after having won a seat in May that year. Roger Vila has previously stood for the Lib Dems in Seaham ward.
Current Council: Lab 55; Con 22; Ind 22; LD 17; Derwentside Ind 5; North East Party 2; Grn 1; Not specified 1; 1 vacancy
NORTH YORKSHIRE UA; Sowerby & Topcliffe (Grn resigned)
Candidates:
ELDERS, Dave (Conservative)
EXOTIC, Stew (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
HALL, John Philip (Yorkshire Party)
LAW, John Timothy (Green)
SLADDEN, Dan (Liberal Democrat)
TOMLINSON, Helen Kathleen (Labour)
2022: Grn 1091; Con 1010
In 2022, John Hall (Yorkshire) stood in Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale & Tockwith and Helen Tomlinson (Lab) in Huby and Tollerton.
Current Council: Con 45; LD 12; Lab 11; N Yorks Ind 10; Grn 4; Ind Unaffilated 3; Ind (Con & Ind Grp) 3; Lib 1; 1 vacancy (which means a Conservative gain would give them an overall majority).
|
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Nov 6, 2023 16:19:24 GMT
A bit strange there's no SCP candidate in Durham - there is one in the simultaneous town council election.
Edit: just saw your note about the Independent. That probably explains it.
|
|
davidh
Forum Regular
Posts: 38 
|
Post by davidh on Nov 6, 2023 20:19:38 GMT
It must be unusual (unique?) for the Greens to be mounting a majority of the defences in a weekly round?
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Nov 6, 2023 20:21:46 GMT
It must be unusual (unique?) for the Greens to be mounting a majority of the defences in a weekly round? Unique I suspect. They both look like pretty difficult defences too. |
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Nov 6, 2023 20:50:02 GMT
It must be unusual (unique?) for the Greens to be mounting a majority of the defences in a weekly round? Unique I suspect. They both look like pretty difficult defences too. Would predict the North Yorkshire one is a simple Tory gain (probably on a significantly reduced share) as the non-Tory vote splits several ways. Sunak will no doubt take it as corroboration that his scorched earth policies are working and carry on. Which ultimately makes his eventual crushing demise more likely. |
|
|
|
Post by ClevelandYorks on Nov 6, 2023 22:19:38 GMT
Unique I suspect. They both look like pretty difficult defences too. Would predict the North Yorkshire one is a simple Tory gain (probably on a significantly reduced share) as the non-Tory vote splits several ways. Sunak will no doubt take it as corroboration that his scorched earth policies are working and carry on. Which ultimately makes his eventual crushing demise more likely. I think you may be over-estimating how much political leaders concern themselves with, or are even aware of, local government by-elections. |
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Nov 6, 2023 23:16:44 GMT
It must be unusual (unique?) for the Greens to be mounting a majority of the defences in a weekly round? Unique I suspect. They both look like pretty difficult defences too. Does anyone know if the Green ran a campaign in 2022 in Sowerby or just got elected by virtue of being the anti-Tory candidate? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2023 4:56:20 GMT
It must be unusual (unique?) for the Greens to be mounting a majority of the defences in a weekly round? Unique I suspect. They both look like pretty difficult defences too. Highgate in Camden doesn’t look that difficult. The Greens have won a seat in that ward at every council election since 2006 and held 3/3 council seats there before 2010. I think they’ll hold that seat given the recent history of the ward. |
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Nov 7, 2023 18:49:21 GMT
In addition in the City of London a councillor and an Alderman are to be elected. Though one is unopposed. CITY OF LONDON; Farringdon Without councillor (Temple & Farringdon Together/Independent resignation) (Going by the Corporation website the councillors elected for this party seem to formally sit as Independents. Things are different in the City.) Candidates: ORNSBY, SUZANNE (Temple & Farringdon Together) 2022 (Alderman): Temple & Farringdon Together (incumbent) unopposed2022 (council): Temple & Farringdon Together 289, 286, 283, 282, 281, 278, 275, 267, 262, 249, Labour 108 2017 (council): Temple & Farringdon Together 440, 427, 425, 424, 410, 408, 404, 403, 400, 390, Independent 209, 208, 190, 168, 167, 164, 163, 149, 147, 144, 50, 42 2017 (Alderman): Independent 443, 98, 26 2013 (Alderman): Independent (incumbent) unopposed2013 (council): Independent 315, 307, 303, 244, 242, 240, 234, 225, 223, 213, 208, 208, 192, 175, 174, Labour 95, Independent 63 Diamond Geezer's guide to the wardSuzanne Ornsby is a barrister specialising in planning law. This appears to be her first candidacy. I'm not exactly sure of the technicalities around wardmotes when there candidates are unopposed so someone else can explain if we can chalk this up as a hold yet or not. CITY OF LONDON; Portsoken Alderman (Independent, incumbent seeking re-election) Candidates: CHOWDHURY, NAZIFA MAHER (Independent) GOYAL, PREM (Independent) 2022 (council): Independent 255, 254, 239, 213, Labour 114, 56, Women's Equality Party 37 2017 (Alderman): Independent 228, Labour 143, Independent 20, 2 2017 (council): Labour 230, 210, Independent 197, 187, 153, 111, 60 2013 (council): Independent 227, 211, 209, 205. 132, Labour 112, Independent 42 2011 (Alderman): Independent (incumbent) unopposedDiamond Geezer's guide to the wardNazifa Chowdhury appears to be a first time candidate. Prem Goyal is the incumbent seeking re-election, first elected in 2017. He was previously elected unopposed as councillor for Bishopsgate in 2017. At the 2015 election he stood in Camberwell & Peckham for the All People's Party after having left Labour. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 7, 2023 19:16:52 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 7, 2023 21:24:51 GMT
In addition in the City of London a councillor and an Alderman are to be elected. Though one is unopposed. CITY OF LONDON; Farringdon Without councillor (Temple & Farringdon Together/Independent resignation) (Going by the Corporation website the councillors elected for this party seem to formally sit as Independents. Things are different in the City.) Candidates: ORNSBY, SUZANNE (Temple & Farringdon Together) 2022 (Alderman): Temple & Farringdon Together (incumbent) unopposed2022 (council): Temple & Farringdon Together 289, 286, 283, 282, 281, 278, 275, 267, 262, 249, Labour 108 2017 (council): Temple & Farringdon Together 440, 427, 425, 424, 410, 408, 404, 403, 400, 390, Independent 209, 208, 190, 168, 167, 164, 163, 149, 147, 144, 50, 42 2017 (Alderman): Independent 443, 98, 26 2013 (Alderman): Independent (incumbent) unopposed2013 (council): Independent 315, 307, 303, 244, 242, 240, 234, 225, 223, 213, 208, 208, 192, 175, 174, Labour 95, Independent 63 Diamond Geezer's guide to the wardSuzanne Ornsby is a barrister specialising in planning law. This appears to be her first candidacy. I'm not exactly sure of the technicalities around wardmotes when there candidates are unopposed so someone else can explain if we can chalk this up as a hold yet or not. CITY OF LONDON; Portsoken (Independent, incumbent seeking re-election) Candidates: CHOWDHURY, NAZIFA MAHER (Independent) GOYAL, PREM (Independent) 2022 (council): Independent 255, 254, 239, 213, Labour 114, 56, Women's Equality Party 37 2017 (Alderman): Independent 228, Labour 143, Independent 20, 2 2017 (council): Labour 230, 210, Independent 197, 187, 153, 111, 60 2013 (council): Independent 227, 211, 209, 205. 132, Labour 112, Independent 42 2011 (Alderman): Independent (incumbent) unopposedDiamond Geezer's guide to the wardNazifa Chowdhury appears to be a first time candidate. Prem Goyal is the incumbent seeking re-election, first elected in 2017. He was previously elected unopposed as councillor for Bishopsgate in 2017. At the 2015 election he stood in Camberwell & Peckham for the All People's Party after having left Labour. Was Prem Goyal the one who lost the selection for Bermondsey and Southwark and flounced off? |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 9, 2023 13:04:57 GMT
Unique I suspect. They both look like pretty difficult defences too. Would predict the North Yorkshire one is a simple Tory gain (probably on a significantly reduced share) as the non-Tory vote splits several ways. Sunak will no doubt take it as corroboration that his scorched earth policies are working and carry on. Which ultimately makes his eventual crushing demise more likely. It might not be quite so simple - The Conservative vote has likely continued to fall since last May and their candidate then was a sitting councillor for the district ward, whilst they seem to have a new candidate. If one of the other candidates can emerge as clear main challenger* there could be room for the Tories to be beaten. * This may not necessarily be the Green. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 9, 2023 13:07:52 GMT
Unique I suspect. They both look like pretty difficult defences too. Highgate in Camden doesn’t look that difficult. The Greens have won a seat in that ward at every council election since 2006 and held 3/3 council seats there before 2010. I think they’ll hold that seat given the recent history of the ward. Diasgree - it's certainly possible, but still difficult. The point where Greens held all 3 seats was when Labour were at a significantly lower ebb in the polls than currently and also need to consider that both Sian Berry and Maya De Souza before her had personal votes that helped them hold on. All 3 Labour candidates beat the second Green last May. Not sure which way I'd predict this one at the moment, but it's likely to be close and a difficult defence. |
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 9, 2023 14:19:16 GMT
Would predict the North Yorkshire one is a simple Tory gain (probably on a significantly reduced share) as the non-Tory vote splits several ways. Sunak will no doubt take it as corroboration that his scorched earth policies are working and carry on. Which ultimately makes his eventual crushing demise more likely. It might not be quite so simple - The Conservative vote has likely continued to fall since last May and their candidate then was a sitting councillor for the district ward, whilst they seem to have a new candidate. If one of the other candidates can emerge as clear main challenger* there could be room for the Tories to be beaten. * This may not necessarily be the Green. I think the Conservative candidate is the previously sitting councillor from one of the previous borough wards that was merged, and was not selected for the county division. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
|
Post by maxque on Nov 9, 2023 14:59:13 GMT
It might not be quite so simple - The Conservative vote has likely continued to fall since last May and their candidate then was a sitting councillor for the district ward, whilst they seem to have a new candidate. If one of the other candidates can emerge as clear main challenger* there could be room for the Tories to be beaten. * This may not necessarily be the Green. I think the Conservative candidate is the previously sitting councillor from one of the previous borough wards that was merged, and was not selected for the county division. There is no merged wards there. Sowerby and Topcliffe division is exactly the same as the old Sowerby and Topcliffe ward (while the Conservative was a councillor for Thirsk, another unchanged ward/division, except for the fact it went from being a two-seater to a one-seater). |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2023 16:17:38 GMT
Highgate in Camden doesn’t look that difficult. The Greens have won a seat in that ward at every council election since 2006 and held 3/3 council seats there before 2010. I think they’ll hold that seat given the recent history of the ward. Diasgree - it's certainly possible, but still difficult. The point where Greens held all 3 seats was when Labour were at a significantly lower ebb in the polls than currently and also need to consider that both Sian Berry and Maya De Souza before her had personal votes that helped them hold on. All 3 Labour candidates beat the second Green last May. Not sure which way I'd predict this one at the moment, but it's likely to be close and a difficult defence. Labour haven't done so well in Camden by-elections lately - look at Hampstead Town and South Hampstead. I don't expect a Green landslide, but I think they should hold the seat - their candidate is decent and they can play the accountability card given that Labour runs Camden Council and the Greens had a sole opposition seat. |
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 9, 2023 16:33:52 GMT
I think the Conservative candidate is the previously sitting councillor from one of the previous borough wards that was merged, and was not selected for the county division. There is no merged wards there. Sowerby and Topcliffe division is exactly the same as the old Sowerby and Topcliffe ward (while the Conservative was a councillor for Thirsk, another unchanged ward/division, except for the fact it went from being a two-seater to a one-seater). That's it: the old Thirsk ward councillors were Gareth Dadd and David Elders. Gareth Dadd got selected for the new Thirsk division, David Elders didn't get selected for anywhere. (Geographically, Sowerby is functionally "South Thirsk". The ward/division/parish boundary slices through very close to the centre of Thirsk.) |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Nov 9, 2023 16:46:30 GMT
There is no merged wards there. Sowerby and Topcliffe division is exactly the same as the old Sowerby and Topcliffe ward (while the Conservative was a councillor for Thirsk, another unchanged ward/division, except for the fact it went from being a two-seater to a one-seater). That's it: the old Thirsk ward councillors were Gareth Dadd and David Elders. Gareth Dadd got selected for the new Thirsk division, David Elders didn't get selected for anywhere. (Geographically, Sowerby is functionally "South Thirsk". The ward/division/parish boundary slices through very close to the centre of Thirsk.) FWIW, from the SOPN Elders gives an address in Thirsk division, the Labour and LD candidates have addressed in Sowerby, whilst the Green is from the neighbouring Hillside & Raskelf division, however significant that may be... |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Nov 9, 2023 17:16:38 GMT
Diasgree - it's certainly possible, but still difficult. The point where Greens held all 3 seats was when Labour were at a significantly lower ebb in the polls than currently and also need to consider that both Sian Berry and Maya De Souza before her had personal votes that helped them hold on. All 3 Labour candidates beat the second Green last May. Not sure which way I'd predict this one at the moment, but it's likely to be close and a difficult defence. Labour haven't done so well in Camden by-elections lately - look at Hampstead Town and South Hampstead. I don't expect a Green landslide, but I think they should hold the seat - their candidate is decent and they can play the accountability card given that Labour runs Camden Council and the Greens had a sole opposition seat. Basically good sound reasoning but don’t forget that the circumstances of the Hampstead Town by-election were unusually awful for Labour, with our councillor (whom I count as a friend) resigning after only a week in office. Also our result in South Hampstead, which has never been easy territory for the party, wasn’t exactly disastrous, although the Tories did do better than we hoped. I knocked up on polling day in that by-election. |
|
davidh
Forum Regular
Posts: 38
|
Post by davidh on Nov 13, 2023 15:47:49 GMT
I did a day's campaigning in Sowerby & Topcliffe (or, specifically, Sowerby) on Saturday and my impression is that the Greens are stuffed. I met a couple of Green activists trudging round and had a quick chat - neither seemed enthused by their prospects and I strongly suspect their win in 2022 was strongly on an anti-Tory rather than pro-Green vote. Labour and the Lib Dems are clearly putting in an effort, and we're putting a leaflet out from the Yorkshire Party. Leaflet fatigue is, however, already a thing with several of the voters I spoke to. I assume the Tories are fighting it reasonably hard given the precariousness of N Yorks council, however I didn't see any evidence of it.
My guess is that the Greens could easily fall to fourth on a very split vote and that Labour ought to be favourites to take it in the current climate. However, that's only a one-day/one-town impression, plus obvious existing data points.
|
|
