weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,341
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Post by weld on Nov 27, 2023 8:59:41 GMT
Hornsey & Wood Green had a 20,000 Labour majority in 1997. And a 19,200 one in 2019. I don’t expect Labour to have any issues in the new Hampstead & Highgate seat until they’re in government; by 2026, the Lib Dems could hold the lions share of councillors in the seat (they already hold all the seats in Belsize and Highgate (Haringey) and one seat in Fortune Green and Hampstead Town. They weren’t far off winning seats in West Hampstead either. It depends if the Tories recover.
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Post by batman on Nov 27, 2023 9:52:27 GMT
West Hampstead was a LD ward for a number of years until Labour finally took it a few years ago. Before that, as West End, it was regularly won by Labour but not usually by much.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2023 14:10:20 GMT
Hornsey & Wood Green had a 20,000 Labour majority in 1997. And a 19,200 one in 2019. And it was won by the Lib Dems twice in between. I'm not sure the point you're making. It doesn't seem controversial to me to suggest that Hampstead & Highgate might be a good seat for the Lib Dems at some point in the future (ie not at the next election, but some time threafter), nor to observe that the Lib Dems have been chronically weak in the Camden ward of Highgate when compared both with the neighbouring Haringey ward and with Hampstead Town to its West. I think its fair to say that there is a much more substantial latent or potential Lib Dem vote in this ward, which has been suppressed by the Labour/Green contest in recent elections. It's notable that the Lib Dems performed relatively well in the ward in 2010 when voting patterns would have more closely resembled those in the general election
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Post by batman on Nov 27, 2023 14:45:21 GMT
I thought the Lib Dems would win it in 2010 and think they would have done had Glenda Jackson not stood for re-election. Though it's also possible the Tories could have done.
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Post by phil156 on Nov 28, 2023 10:41:23 GMT
They all count on Thursday
Sorry I was not about last week but had no internet for 4 days due to a large tree coming down
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 28, 2023 14:44:29 GMT
They all count on Thursday Sorry I was not about last week but had no internet for 4 days due to a large tree coming down Northumbrian police officer: Excuse me Sir. Could you tell me where were you on the night that the tree at Hadrian's Wall came down?
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 28, 2023 21:36:18 GMT
And a 19,200 one in 2019. And it was won by the Lib Dems twice in between. I'm not sure the point you're making. It doesn't seem controversial to me to suggest that Hampstead & Highgate might be a good seat for the Lib Dems at some point in the future (ie not at the next election, but some time threafter), nor to observe that the Lib Dems have been chronically weak in the Camden ward of Highgate when compared both with the neighbouring Haringey ward and with Hampstead Town to its West. I think its fair to say that there is a much more substantial latent or potential Lib Dem vote in this ward, which has been suppressed by the Labour/Green contest in recent elections. It's notable that the Lib Dems performed relatively well in the ward in 2010 when voting patterns would have more closely resembled those in the general election I think my point was that Weld appeared to be over egging the Lib Dems somewhat. Labour have moved on campaign wise since then and I get the impression, particulalry in London, they are not as complacent as they were when the Lib Dems overtook them at the lowest points in their government. There's a bunch of metropolitan liberal voters who are still paying their tuition fees and will be for some time. And the demographics of London are all going increasingly in Labour's favour. These new north London seats may see a Lib Dem challenge - but I can't see them coming back to win any time soon - solid second places may be the most they can achieve going forward.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Nov 29, 2023 18:19:29 GMT
Most Lib Dems I know, confronted by a campaign in Highgate ward, would go for a meal at the Bull and Last, then sample the wares of the Southampton Arms.
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Nov 29, 2023 21:19:21 GMT
The LDs have never been a factor in Highgate ward (Camden as opposed to the Haringey one) and in a Green v Labour contest they ought to get squeezed once again. I remember when Highgate ward in Camden was a Labour-Conservative marginal, but that's a long time ago now. And my own reckoning on the Haringey Highgate ward (based mainly admittedly on ward-level figures for recent GLA elections) is that, whatever the situation 15 or so years ago, the ward's LD councillors are getting elected because (a) they are not Labour and (b) they are the incumbent party in the ward. I suspect that something like half the ward's LD voters would be voting Conservative if they thought that the Conservatives were at all likely to beat Labour in a straight fight, and that most of the rest would be just as (or more) willing to vote Green if the Greens looked more able to win than the LDs.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 30, 2023 8:29:32 GMT
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davidh
Forum Regular
Posts: 29
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Post by davidh on Nov 30, 2023 10:54:57 GMT
Farringdon Without must have a claim to have one of the narrowest boundaries in Britain, with a strip half the width of the A40 linking its two more substantial sections?
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Post by batman on Nov 30, 2023 11:45:02 GMT
I think that Thirsk & Malton is a berth rather than a birth for Kevin Hollinrake. He was already born by the time he was elected to Parliament.
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 30, 2023 20:07:50 GMT
I think that Thirsk & Malton is a berth rather than a birth for Kevin Hollinrake. He was already born by the time he was elected to Parliament. Gives a whole new meaning to "baby of the House".
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 30, 2023 21:36:22 GMT
Good stuff as usual. The mention of James Herriot in the preview for Sowerby and Topcliffe is apt. My sources there tell me the Lib Dems have been going for the ward big time including endorsement from James Herriot successor - Julian one of the current Yorkshire Vets. They have also been employing their very latest bar chart technology arguing that as they have outpolled Labour and the Greens in various other North Yorkshire by-elections (some the best part of 100 miles away) that they are best placed to beat the Conservatives in a ward they couldn't find a candidate to stand in 18 months ago. Sadly I expect it to be successful and a policy and ideology free campaign will win based on celebrity endorsement and lies. C'est la vie.
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Post by samdwebber on Nov 30, 2023 23:01:13 GMT
&
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Post by dizz on Nov 30, 2023 23:17:26 GMT
The wine bar revolutionaries are out in force.
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Post by MeirionGwril on Nov 30, 2023 23:45:40 GMT
whine bar?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 30, 2023 23:49:58 GMT
Highgate turnout 33.2%.
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Post by greenman on Nov 30, 2023 23:58:17 GMT
So the turnout is down from 49% at the 2022 general election in Camden.
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Post by olympian95 on Dec 1, 2023 0:02:17 GMT
Camden New Journal suggesting a clear Green win in Highgate, Camden
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