The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 1, 2023 12:46:23 GMT
So the turnout is down from 49% at the 2022 general election in Camden. Which is pretty routine for a council by-election. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Dec 1, 2023 12:56:43 GMT
It always seems a reasonable line of argument in such circumstances to say an opposition voice on the council will make more difference than adding to an already considerable majority
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 1, 2023 13:06:30 GMT
And it was won by the Lib Dems twice in between. I'm not sure the point you're making. It doesn't seem controversial to me to suggest that Hampstead & Highgate might be a good seat for the Lib Dems at some point in the future (ie not at the next election, but some time threafter), nor to observe that the Lib Dems have been chronically weak in the Camden ward of Highgate when compared both with the neighbouring Haringey ward and with Hampstead Town to its West. I think its fair to say that there is a much more substantial latent or potential Lib Dem vote in this ward, which has been suppressed by the Labour/Green contest in recent elections. It's notable that the Lib Dems performed relatively well in the ward in 2010 when voting patterns would have more closely resembled those in the general election the Lib Dems somewhat. Labour have moved on campaign wise since then and I get the impression, particulalry in London, they are not as complacent as they were when the Lib Dems overtook them at the lowest points in their government. There's a bunch of metropolitan liberal voters who are still paying their tuition fees and will be for some time. And the demographics of London are all going increasingly in Labour's favour. These new north London seats may see a Lib Dem challenge - but I can't see them coming back to win any time soon - solid second places may be the most they can achieve going forward. I'm shocked I tell you. Shocked.  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 1, 2023 13:16:58 GMT
Greens may now fancy their chances at winning three out of three in Highgate in 2026, especially if Labour is in government. That was a strong result from them, and shows that the Green success is down to a bit more than Sian Berry's personal vote. I thought they would hold, but a 2-1 margin wasn't expected. Perhaps Berry had a negative personal vote?  |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Dec 1, 2023 13:47:44 GMT
A quick search of the LEAP database shows nine since 2002. Two of them were in by-elections, but this is the first LD by-election gain from Grn outside the normal May polls. The two by-elections were 6 May 2021: Richmond upon Thames, Hampton Wick 5 May 2022: Rutland, Uppingham (Grn did not defend seat) Ah - if you go back a little further you'll find two further instances of Lib Dem gains from Green. 7th June 2001 Oxfordshire CC, Oxford Central division (normal election) 7th June 2001 Oxford City, Central Ward (by-election) My instant recall of this is because the by-election is where I stood for election for the first time. I came last. The count was fun as both elections were close. I remember the defeated Green County Councillor took it pretty badly as losing wasn't expected. Also Wolvercote division for the County Council a year later, the only council by-election I’ve ever voted in. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 1, 2023 14:37:26 GMT
If the Lib Dems claim to be best placed to beat the Tories, and the result of the election is that the Lib Dems comfortably win and the Tory is second, with Green Party and Labour well behind, can you explain how that claim is a lie, as opposed to an entirely accurate statement borne out by subsequent events? The leaflets I've seen showed bar charts based on election results in completely different wards. It's the equivalent of Labour targeting a Lib Dem seat in a general election - say Kingston and Surbiton - and saying because in 2019 they won 20x the seats and 5x the votes they were best placed to win in a seat they have never won. Of course if the Greens were any good they would have exposed this sort of tactics - but they appear to be useless in the face of a decent non-Tory campaign (Camden excepted assuming Labour actually bothered). The Lib Dems do need to start saying what they are for; not being Tory isn't sufficient, because when in the next few months the Tories are out of office at Westminster their platform will come under scrutiny and being patsies for a dull centrist Starmer government won't do the any good. The Guardian letter yesterday made the point better than I could. Try looking up the definition of "lie" in a dictionary. A chart showing results in another ward isn't a lie unless the result is wrong or the ward isn't disclosed. It might be irrelevant, but not necessarily that either. In a ward where we didn't stand last time, how do voters know the latent LD strength? Evidence from comparable nearby wards could easily be entirely relevant, especially if it's part of a pattern of progress across an area. Labour are welcome to turn up in Kingston and point out that nationally they're the bigger party (which the national media do for them free of charge every day) and see if it convinces anyone that it's relevant to Kingston. You need a degree of credibility for these things to work. If you're LD, Green, or Reform, you operate in a 2-party system where the usual assumption (correctly) is that you can't win. Pointing out you're in with a chance is the first step - until you win that argument no one gives a toss about your policies (unless they're purely registering a protest.) In a local council by-election the only meaningful policies anyway are hyper-local. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 1, 2023 15:06:22 GMT
So the turnout is down from 49% at the 2022 general election in Camden. Which is pretty routine for a council by-election. Plus it was freezing yesterday unlike in May 2022. |
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Post by michaelarden on Dec 1, 2023 22:20:47 GMT
The leaflets I've seen showed bar charts based on election results in completely different wards. It's the equivalent of Labour targeting a Lib Dem seat in a general election - say Kingston and Surbiton - and saying because in 2019 they won 20x the seats and 5x the votes they were best placed to win in a seat they have never won. Of course if the Greens were any good they would have exposed this sort of tactics - but they appear to be useless in the face of a decent non-Tory campaign (Camden excepted assuming Labour actually bothered). The Lib Dems do need to start saying what they are for; not being Tory isn't sufficient, because when in the next few months the Tories are out of office at Westminster their platform will come under scrutiny and being patsies for a dull centrist Starmer government won't do the any good. The Guardian letter yesterday made the point better than I could. Try looking up the definition of "lie" in a dictionary. A chart showing results in another ward isn't a lie unless the result is wrong or the ward isn't disclosed. It might be irrelevant, but not necessarily that either. In a ward where we didn't stand last time, how do voters know the latent LD strength? Evidence from comparable nearby wards could easily be entirely relevant, especially if it's part of a pattern of progress across an area. Labour are welcome to turn up in Kingston and point out that nationally they're the bigger party (which the national media do for them free of charge every day) and see if it convinces anyone that it's relevant to Kingston. You need a degree of credibility for these things to work. If you're LD, Green, or Reform, you operate in a 2-party system where the usual assumption (correctly) is that you can't win. Pointing out you're in with a chance is the first step - until you win that argument no one gives a toss about your policies (unless they're purely registering a protest.) In a local council by-election the only meaningful policies anyway are hyper-local. I agree with most of this - and you're right lie is probably too strong a criticism. But advanced Lib Dem bar chart technology isn't just about historical fact it is in many cases a self fulfilling prophecy - usually where the principle opposition party fails to respond and is rolled over by the band wagon. Clearly in Thirsk the Greens were too weak (or naive) to understand the strong choice of Lib Dem candidate and their brazen push polling was going to collapse their vote. The Lib Dems deserved their victory but it doesn't mean they don't need to explain more about what they stand for - not being Tory isn't sufficient and the recent Guardian letter shows that many Lib Dems agree. |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 5, 2023 22:44:06 GMT
What was the result of the City of London Portsoken by-election? I predicted 86 / 14 but I can’t find any mention of the result.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 5, 2023 23:06:01 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 6, 2023 13:23:57 GMT
Quite unusual for johnloony to miss that sort of thing, though in fairness they weren't far out with the prediction. |
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Dec 20, 2023 13:51:53 GMT
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Dec 20, 2023 15:38:47 GMT
I enjoy your London write-ups, mrtoad |
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