Prediction Competition - November 2023

[manchesterman]

You forgot to blame VAR

[Tony Otim]

Bolton, Kearsley: FKF 48.0; Lab 29.0; RefUK/B4C 10.8; Con 8.9; Grn 2.2; LD 1.1
Bolton, Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill: LD 30.7; Con 29.4; Lab 25.2; W1st 6.7; RefUK/B4C 4.9; Grn 3.1
Ceredigion: PC 37.7; Lab 33.1; Morgan 17.5; LD 10.2; Con 1.5
Doncaster: Lab 52.7; Cooke 28.5; Con 12.4; RefUK 6.4
North Lanarkshire: Lab 37.9; SNP 32.1; Con 11.5; BUP 8.8; Grn 5.7; Alba 2.2; LD 1.4; UKIP 0.4
North Somerset: LD 42.6; Con 27.9; Grn 26.3; Lab 3.2

[johnloony]

Bolton K: FKF 800 Lab 600 Con 200 Ref 200 Grn 100 LD 50
Bolton WNHH: Lab 900 LD 800 Con 500 WFI 300 Ref 200 Grn 100
Ceredigion: PC 400 Lab 300 Ind 200 Con 100 LD 100
Doncaster: Lab 2000 Ref 800 Ind 600 Con 400
North Lanarkshire: Lab 2000 SNP 1500 Con 400 Grn 300 LD 100 BU 80 Alba 60 UKIP 10
North Somerset: LD 700 Con 300 Lab 200 Grn 100

Bolton K: FKF 41 Lab 31 Con 10 Ref 10 Grn 5 LD 3
Bolton WNHH: Lab 32 LD 29 Con 18 WFI 11 Ref 7 Grn 3
Ceredigion: PC 37 Lab 27 Ind 18 Con 9 LD 9
Doncaster: Lab 53 Ref 21 Ind 16 Con 10
North Lanarkshire: Lab 45.4 SNP 33 Con 9 Gun 7 LD 2.2 BU 1.8 Alba 1.4 UKIP 0.2
North Somerset: LD 53 Con 24 Lab 15 Grn 8

[batman]

BOLTON, Kearsley : FKF 42 Lab 37 C 11 RefUK 5 Green 3 LD 2

BOLTON, Westhoughton N. & Hunger Hill : LD 28 Lab 24 C 22 WFI 14 RefUK 8 Green 4

CEREDIGION, Aberystwyth Penparcau : PC 37 Lab 24 LD 22 C 10 Ind 7

DONCASTER, Rossington & Bawtry : Lab 46 Ind 28 C 18 RefUK 8

N.LANARKSHIRE, Motherwell NE & Ravenscraig : Lab 43 SNP 24 C 16 Green 9 Alba 3 LD 2 BU 2 UKIP 1. Lab win

N.SOMERSET, Wrington : LD 51 C 29 Lab 12 Green 8

[kevinf]

Bolton Kearsley
FKF 40, Lab 33, Con 15.5, Ref 4.5, Green 4, LD 3
Bolton Westhoughton
LD 36, Lab 21, Con 20, WFI 15, Reform 4, Green 4
Ceredigion
Lab 28, PC 27, Ind 26, LD 14, Con 5
Doncaster
Ind 39, Lab 38, Con 19, Ref 4
N Lanarkshire
Lab 32, SNP 30, Con 17, Green 10.4, LD 6.5, Alba 3.2, Ukip 0.5, Brit Union 0.4
N Somerset
LD 38, Green 29, Con 23, Lab 10

[Richard Cromwell]

Westhoughton North & Hunger, Bolton

LDEM	31%
CON	28%
LAB	20%
Westhoughton First	10%
Reform	6%
GRN	5%

Aberystwyth Penparcau, Ceredigion

Plaid Cymru	45%
LAB	35%
IND	11%
LDEM	8%
CON	1%

Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig, North Lanarkshire

LAB	23%	Win On Transfers
SNP	21%
GRN	13%
CON	11%
LDEM	11%
British Unionist	8%
Alba	7%
UKIP	6%

Kearsley, Bolton

Farnworth and Kearsley First	35%
LAB	20%
Reform	15%
CON	13%
GRN	11%
LDEM	6%

Wrington, North Somerset

LAB	28%
CON	27%
GRN	24%
LDEM	21%

Rossington & Bawtry, Doncaster

LAB	48%
IND	27%
Reform	15%
CON	10%

[andrewp]

Bolton. Kearsley FKF 45 Lab 28 Con 11 RefUK 10 Green 3 LD 3
Bolton, Westhoughton North and Hunger Hill. LD 35 Con 23 Lab 22 Westhoughton First 10 RefUK 6 Green 4
Ceredigion. Aberystwyth Pencarnau. Ind 32 Lab 30 PC 27 LD 8 Con 3
Doncaster, Rossington and Bawtry. Lab 50 Ind 31 Con 15 RefUK 4
North Lanarkshire. Lab 44 SNP 29.5 Con 11, Green 6 LD 4 Alba 2 BU 3 UKIP 0.5. Lab win
North Somerset. Wrington. LD 48 Green 25 Con 20 Lab 7

[Robert Waller]

Bolton Kearsley
FKF 43, Lab 38, Con 11, Ref 3, Green 3, LD 2

Bolton Westhoughton
LD 37, Lab 25, Con 25, WFI 8, Reform 2, Green 3

Ceredigion
Lab 20, PC 36, Ind 32, LD 7, Con 5

Doncaster
Ind 25, Lab 57, Con 13, Ref 5

N Lanarkshire
Lab 41, SNP 32, Con 14, Green 6, LD 2.5, Alba 2.5, Ukip 0.5, Brit Union 1.5

N Somerset
LD 38, Green 27, Con 25, Lab 10

[peterl]

Bolton. Kearsley FKF 47 Lab 29 Con 9 LD 6 RefUK 5 Green 4
Bolton, Westhoughton North and Hunger Hill. LD 38 Lab 23 Con 19 Westhoughton First 11 RefUK 5 Green 4
Ceredigion. Aberystwyth Pencarnau. Ind 31 Lab 29 PC 27 LD 10 Con 3
Doncaster, Rossington and Bawtry. Lab 48 Ind 35 Con 11 RefUK 6
North Lanarkshire. Lab 42 SNP 27 Con 12, Green 8 LD 6 Alba 2 BU 2 UKIP 1. Lab win
North Somerset. Wrington. LD 38 Green 32 Con 18 Lab 12

[manchesterman]

BOLTON, Kearsley : FKF 39, Lab 35, C 10, RefUK 10, Green 3, LD 3

BOLTON, Westhoughton N. & Hunger Hill : LD 33, Lab 24, C 23, WFI 10, RefUK 7, Green 3

CEREDIGION, Aberystwyth Penparcau : PC 34, Lab 26, Ind 20, LD 12, C 8

DONCASTER, Rossington & Bawtry : Lab 47, Ind 33, C 14, RefUK 6

N.LANARKSHIRE, Motherwell NE & Ravenscraig : Lab 42, SNP 26, C 14, Green 8, LD 5, Alba 2, BU 2, UKIP 1. Lab win

N.SOMERSET, Wrington : LD 46, C 23, Green 23, Lab 8

[corradino]

Bolton, Kearsley: FKF 42, Lab 32, Con 12, Reform 8, LD 3, Green 3.

Bolton, Westhoughton N etc: LD 34, Con 27, Lab 21, Westhoughton First 9, Reform 5, Green 4.

Ceredigion, Penparcau: PC 33, Ind (Morgan) 30, Lab 24, LD 9, Con 4.

Doncaster, Rossington & Bawtry: Lab 46, Ind 30, Con 16, Reform 8.

N. Lanarkshire, Motherwell NE etc: Lab 38, SNP 27, Con 16, Green 11, LD 3,Alba 2.5, BU 2, UKIP 0.5. (Lab win)

N. Somerset, Wrington: LD 37, Green 33, Con 20, Lab 10.

[greenman]

Bolton, Kearsley FKF 42%/Lab 31%/Con 11%/Reform UK 8%/LD 4%/Green 4%
Bolton, Westhoughton North & Hunger Hill LD 33%/Con 30%/Lab 20%/WFI 7%/Reform 7%/Green 3%
Doncaster, Rossington & Bawtry Lab 50%/Ind 25%/Con 20%/Reform 5%
Ceredigion, Aberystwyth Penparcau PC 43%/Labour 33%/Ind 9%/LD 8%/Con 7%
North Lanarkshire, Motherwell North East & Ravenscraig Lab 40%/ SNP 28%/Con 17%/Green 8%/LD 3%/Alba 2%/BU 1%/UKIP 1%
North Somerset, Wrington Green 33%/LD 30%/Labour 20%/Con 17%

[iainbhx]

Bolton MBC, Kearsley: FKF 49 Lab 28 Con 9 Ref-UK 7 Grn 4 LDm 3
Bolton MBC, Westhoughton N & Hunger Hill: LDm 33 Con 27 Lab 21 Westhoughton First 9 Grn 5.5 Ref-UK 4.5
Ceredigion WUA , Aberystwyth Penparcau: PC 35 Lab 28 Ind 18 LDm 15 Con 4
Doncaster MBC, Rossington and Bawtry: Lab 46 Ind 28 Con 19 Ref-UK 7
North Lanarkshire SUA, Motherwell SE & Ravenscraig: Lab 38 SNP 31.5, Con 14, Grn 5.5, Alba 4, LDm 3,5, BritUnion 3 UKIP 0.5. Lab win on transfers
North Somerset UA, Wrington: LDm 43 Grn 27 Con 21 Lab 9

[rightleaning]

Bolton. Kearsley FKF 44, Lab 27, Con 13, RefUK 7, Green 5, LD 4
Bolton, Westhoughton North and Hunger Hill. LD 35, Con 27, Lab 18, Westhoughton First 12, RefUK 5, Green 3,
Ceredigion. Aberystwyth Pencarnau. Ind 35, Lab 30 PC 26, LD 6, Con 3
Doncaster, Rossington and Bawtry. Lab 47, Ind 33, Con 17, RefUK 3
North Lanarkshire. Lab 39, SNP 30, Con 13, Green 8, LD 5, Alba 2, BU 2, UKIP 1. Lab win
North Somerset. Wrington. LD 52, Green 22, Con 22, Lab 4

[yellowperil]

Bolton, Kearsley: Con 11, Lab 30, LD 2, GP 4, Ref 5, FKF 48.
Bolton, Westhoughton, etc: Con 25, Lab 24, LD 36, GP4, Ref 4, WF 7.
Ceredigion, Aberyswyth Pencarnau: Con 4, Lab 21, LD 10, PC 35, Ind 30.
Doncaster, Rossington etc: Con 13, Lab 40, Ref 6, Ind 41.
North Lanarkshire, Motherwell NE, etc: Con 13,Lab 44, LD 3, GP 5, SNP 30, UKIP 0.5, Alba 3, BU 1.5
(Lab win on transfers)
North Somerset, Wrington: Con 22, Lab 10, LD 40, GP 28.

[Robert Waller]

I should say explicitly what was implied in my N Lanarkshire prediction:
Lab win on transfers

[kevinf]

Nov 16, 2023 10:34:38 GMT Robert Waller said:

I should say explicitly what was implied in my N Lanarkshire prediction:
Lab win on transfers

Ah, me too if I’m not too late!

[yellowperil]

I thought the rule was that if no winner after transfers was shown, the assumption was that the indicated winner of the first stage was staying ahead, so in a sense if that was your intention there is no need to indicate the final winner- only vital if you are expecting a different winner. Of course a number of us do still indicate the eventual winner even though it's unchanged - that's because we are belt and braces sort of people.

[batman]

that was my understanding also

[robbienicoll]

14 entries this week, all on time and correct.

Kearsley, Bolton: 100% Farnworth and Kearsley First gain from One Kearsley, with majorities ranging from 4% (manchesterman) to 21% (iainbhx).

Westhoughton North and Hunger Hill, Bolton: 13 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservatives, majorities ranging from 3% (Richard Cromwell) to 15% (kevinf and peterl). Johnloony has Labour gain with 3% majority.

Aberystwyth Penparcau, Ceredigion: 10 Plaid Cymru hold, with andrewp, peterl and Right Leaning Independent (Morgan) gain, and kevinf Labour gain.

Rossington and Bawtry, Doncaster: 12 Labour hold, with kevinf and yellowperil Independent (Cooke) gain.

Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig, North Lanarkshire: 100% Labour lead on first preferences and gain from SNP after transfers, first preference majorities ranging from 2% (kevinf and Richard Cromwell) to 19% (batman).

Wrington, North Somerset: 12 Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, with greenman Green gain and Richard Cromwell Labour gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zgicpdhuB7Fr90dDmtOHQbsyem8OVbljFwMOXkirFPk/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!