Prediction Competition - November 2023

[robbienicoll]

There are currently 23 by-elections including a double election to be held during November.

- 6 by-elections on 2 November
- 5 including the double on 9 November
- 6 on 16 November
- 1 on 22 November (a Wednesday)
- 2 on 23 November
- 3 on 30 November

5 by-elections are for district councils, all last contested in May
5 are for metropolitan boroughs, 3 last contested in 2022 and 2 in 2021
3 including the double are for Welsh authorities, all last contested in 2022
3 are for London Borough Councils, all last contested in 2022
3 are for unitary authorities, 1 last contested in May, 1 in 2022 and 1 in 2021
2 are for county councils, both last contested in 2021
2 are for Scottish authorities, both last contested in 2022

Labour defend 6 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 5 a resignation
Conservatives defend 4 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, all following a resignation (2 of whom were sitting as Independents)
Greens defend 3 seats, all following a resignation
Independents defend 3 seats, all following a resignation
SNP defend 1 seat following a resignation
Plaid Cymru defend 1 seat following a resignation (sitting as Ungrouped)
Molesey Residents Association defend 1 seat following a resignation
One Kearsley defend 1 seat following a resignation
South Holland Independents defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 24 candidates for the Conservatives, 21 Liberal Democrats, 20 Labour, 14 Greens, 5 Reform UK (2 listed as Reform UK and Bolton for Change), 2 SNP and 2 Yorkshire Party along with 1 apiece for Plaid Cymru, Scottish Greens, Alba, UKIP, Monster Raving Loony Party, British Unionist, Molesey Residents Association, Freedom Alliance, South Holland Independents, Farnworth and Kearsley First, Westhoughton First Independents and True Independents together with 16 Independents contesting 11 elections – a total of 116 candidates for 24 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[batman]

I will enter this week's competition but will be away for the results, and will have to put in my entry for next week's very early.

[batman]

November 2

ARGYLL & BUTE, S.Kintyre : Ind 40 C 28 SNP 22 LD 8 FA 2

BUCKINGHAMSHIRE, Buckingham E : C 40 Lab 35 LD 17 Green 8

ELMBRIDGE, Molesey E : LD 48 RA 27 Con 19 Green 6

MELTON, Asfordby : Green 33 Ind 27 Lab 21 C 19

ROTHERHAM, Kilnhurst & Swinton E. : Lab 62 C 15 LD 9 RefUK 7 Green 5 Yorks 2

TRAFFORD, Bucklow St MarMtin's : Lab 55 C 25 Green 9 LD 7 RefUK 4

CITY OF LONDON, Cripplegate : Mielken 28 Lab 25 Hogg 24 Petroschka 23


November 9

LEWISHAM, Deptford : Lab 53 Green 29 C 12 LD 6

LINCOLNSHIRE, Grantham N. : Ind Harrison 30 C 27 Lab 16 Ind Ward 14 Green 9 LD 4

POWYS, Crickhowell with Cwmdu & Tretower (top candidate) : Ind 41 LD 29 C 22 Lab 8. 2 x Ind elected

S.HOLLAND, Spalding St Paul's : SHI 38 C 37 Lab 12 True Ind 9 Ind Wheeler 4

S.KESTEVEN, Grantham St Wulfrun's : C 30 Ind Swinburn 28 Lab 18 Ind Ward 16 LD 5 Green 3


If my predictions are, as I'm quite sure, way out I can blame it on the mist rolling in from the sea.

[Tony Otim]

Argyll & Bute: Kelly 42.5; Con 22.9; SNP 22.5; LD 11.5; FA 0.6 (Kelly win)
Bucks: Con 39.4; LD 28.5; Lab 19.4; Grn 12.7
Elmbridge: LD 42.5; MRA 31.2; Con 19.6; Grn 6.7
Melton: Faulkner 38.4; Con 25.5; Grn 23.2; Lab 12.9
Rotherham: Lab 66.6; Con 19.4; LD 7.4; RefUK 2.8; YP 2.1; Grn 1.7
Trafford: Lab 61.5; Con 17.3; Grn 11.5; LD 6.9; RefUK 2.8

[Richard Cromwell]

I will have to skip this week, unfortunately.

[kevinf]

Argyll
Ind 43, Con 24, SNP 23, LD, 9.5, FA 0.5 - Ind win
Bucks
Con 44, Lab 27, LD 20, Green 9
Elmbridge
LD 43, MRA 30, Con 22, Green 5
Melton
Ind 35, Green 25, Con 24, Lab 16
Rotherham
Lab 50, Con 27, LD 9.5, Green 6, Yorks 4, Reform 3.5
Trafford
Lab 60, Con 22, Green 9, LD 5.5, Reform 3.5

[greenman]

South Kintyre Ind 38%/22.5% SNP/22% Con/16.5% LD/1% F
Buckingham East Con 36%/35% Labour/15% LD/14% Green
Molesey East LD 42.6%/29.7% MRA/15.7% Con/12% Green
Asfordby Green 30%/30% Ind/21% Con/16%/19% Lab
Kilnhurst & Swinton East Lab 50%/22% Con/12% Green/10% LD/4% Yorks/2% Reform
Bucklow St Martins Lab 49%/20% Green/17% Con/12% LD/2% Reform

[corradino]

Argyll and Bute, South Kintyre: Kelly (Ind) 37, SNP 29, Con 21, LD 12, FA 1. Ind wins after transfers.

Bucks, Buckingham East: LD 31, Con 30, Lab 25, Green 14.

Melton, Asfordby: Ind 46, Green 22, Con 20, Lab 12.

Elmbridge, Molesey East: LD 40, MRA 37, Con 18, Lab 5.

Rotherham, Kilnhurst & Swinton East: Lab 54, Con 22, LD 10, Yorkshire 3, Green 4, Reform 7.

Trafford, Bucklow & St Martins: Lab 58, Con 18, Green 11, LD 5, Reform 8.

[andrewp]

Argyll and Bute. South Kintyre. Ind 40 SNP 25 Con 23 LD 11 FA 1. Ind win
Buckinghamshire. Buckingham East. Lab 38 Con 32 LD 23 Green 7
Elmbridge. Molesey East. LD 47 Res 31 Con 17 Green 5
Melton. Ashfordby. Ind 40 Green 30 Con 24 Lab 6
Rotherham. Kilnhurst and Swindon East Lab 58 Con 22 LD 10 Yorks 4 RefUK 3 Green 3
Trafford. Bucklow St Martins. Lab 63 Con 17 Green 12 LD 6 RefUK 2

[manchesterman]

Argyll and Bute, South Kintyre: Kelly (Ind) 39, SNP 23, Con 23, LD 14, FA 1. Ind wins after transfers.

Bucks, Buckingham East: Con 36, LD 30, Lab 26, Green 8.

Melton, Asfordby: Faulkner (Ind) 38, Con 26, Grn 25, Lab 11.

Elmbridge, Molesey East: LD 41, MRA 30, Con 22, Grn 7.

Rotherham, Kilnhurst & Swinton East: Lab 54, Con 22, LD 9, Grn 7, Reform 5, Yorkshire 3.

Trafford, Bucklow & St Martins: Lab 58, Con 18, Green 14, LD 7, Reform 3.

[yellowperil]

Nov 1, 2023 22:04:51 GMT corradino said:

Argyll and Bute, South Kintyre: Kelly (Ind) 37, SNP 29, Con 21, LD 12, FA 1. Ind wins after transfers.

Bucks, Buckingham East: LD 31, Con 30, Lab 25, Green 14.

Melton, Asfordby: Ind 46, Green 22, Con 20, Lab 12.

Elmbridge, Molesey East: LD 40, MRA 37, Con 18, Lab 5.

Rotherham, Kilnhurst & Swinton East: Lab 54, Con 22, LD 10, Yorkshire 3, Green 4, Reform 7.

Trafford, Bucklow & St Martins: Lab 58, Con 18, Green 11, LD 5, Reform 8.

I think you may have made an error with the Labour vote in Elmbridge...

[Robert Waller]

Argyll & Bute: Kelly 38; Con 26; SNP 26; LD 9; FA 1 (Kelly win)

Bucks: Con 35; LD 37; Lab 18; Grn 10

Elmbridge: LD 47; MRA 29; Con 16; Grn 8

Melton: Faulkner 40; Con 20; Grn 30; Lab 10

Rotherham: Lab 60; Con 20; LD 9; RefUK 2; YP 5; Grn 4

Trafford: Lab 62; Con 18; Grn 11; LD 7; RefUK 2

[peterl]

Argyll & Bute: Kelly 36; Con 29; SNP 22; LD 12; FA 1 (Kelly win)

Bucks: Con 35; LD 33; Lab 20; Grn 12

Elmbridge: LD 42; MRA 34; Con 14; Grn 10

Melton: Green 38, Faulkner 35; Con 17; Lab 10

Rotherham: Lab 55; LD 17; Con 14; YP 6; Gun 5; RefUK 3

Trafford: Lab 58; Grn 15; LD 14; Con 11; RefUK 2

[johnloony]

Bucks: Con 40 Lab 30 LD 20 Grn 10
Elmbridge: LD 40 RA 30 Con 20 Grn 10
Melton: Ind 25.1 Grn 25.0 Lab 25.0 Con 24.9
Rotherham: Lab 60 Con 20 LD 5 Grn 5 Ref 5 Y 5
Trafford: Lab 50 Con 20 LD 10 Grn 10 Ref 10
Argyll: Ind 40 Con 30 SNP 20 LD 10 FA 0

[greenman]

Correction Asfordby Green 30%/30% Ind/21% Con/19% Lab

[rightleaning]

Argyll & Bute, South Kintyre: Kelly 39; Con 28; SNP 25; LD 7; FA 1 (Kelly win)

Bucks, Buckingham East: LD 40; Con 34; Lab 18; Grn 8

Elmbridge, Molesey East: LD 44; MRA 32; Con 15; Grn 9

Melton, Asfordby: Faulkner 37; Grn 34; Con 20; Lab 9

Rotherham, Kilnhurst & Swinton East: Lab 53; Con 22; LD 12; Grn 7; YP 4; RefUK 2;

Trafford, Bucklow St Martin’s: Lab 64; Con 17; Grn 10; LD 7; RefUK 2

[batman]

Nov 1, 2023 22:04:51 GMT corradino said:

Argyll and Bute, South Kintyre: Kelly (Ind) 37, SNP 29, Con 21, LD 12, FA 1. Ind wins after transfers.

Bucks, Buckingham East: LD 31, Con 30, Lab 25, Green 14.

Melton, Asfordby: Ind 46, Green 22, Con 20, Lab 12.

Elmbridge, Molesey East: LD 40, MRA 37, Con 18, Lab 5.

Rotherham, Kilnhurst & Swinton East: Lab 54, Con 22, LD 10, Yorkshire 3, Green 4, Reform 7.

Trafford, Bucklow & St Martins: Lab 58, Con 18, Green 11, LD 5, Reform 8.

Labour aren't standing in Elmbridge

[iainbhx]

Argyll and Bute SUA, South Kintyre: Ind 45 SNP 28 Con 16 LDm 10 FA 1. Ind win after transfers
Buckinghamshire UA, Buckingham East: LDm 38 Con 31 Lab 22 Grn 9
Elmbridge DC, Molesey East: LDm 44 Res 32 Con 17 Grn 7
Melton DC, Ashfordby: Lab 33 Grn 31 Con 26 Ind 10
Rotherham MBC, Kilnhurst & Swinton East: Lab 52 Con 25 REF-UK 12 Yorks 5 LDm 3,5 Grn 2.5
Trafford MBC, Bucklow St Martins: Lab 58 Con 18 Grn 17 LDm 5 REF-UK 2

[yellowperil]

Argyll & Bute, S. Kintyre: Con 23, Lab 10, SNP 26, Ind 40,FA 1.Ind win.
Bucks, Buckingham E: Con 30, Lab 20, LD 40, GP 10.
Elmbridge, Molesey E: Con 14, LD 45, GP 6, RA 35.
Melton, Asfordby: Con 20, Lab 15, GP 35, Ind 30.
Rotherham, Kinhurst etc: Con 24, Lab 60, LD 6, GP 3, Ref UK 3, YP 4.
Trafford, Bucklow St Martins: Con 19, Lab 60, LD5, GP 13, RefUK 3.

[robbienicoll]

13 entries to begin the month, with Right Leaning returning and Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev both out. All on time, but with corradino having a phantom Labour candidate instead of Green in Elmbridge, thereby incurring a 5 point penalty for not reaching 100.

South Kintyre, Argyll and Bute: 100% Independent (Kelly) ahead on first preferences and winner after transfers, first preference majority ranging from 7% (peterl) to 19.6% (Tony Otim).

Buckingham East, Buckinghamshire: 7 Conservative hold, with corradino, iainbhx, Right Leaning, Robert Waller and Yellow Peril Liberal Democrat gain, and andrewp Labour gain.

Molesey East, Elmbridge: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Molesey Residents Association, with majorities ranging from 3% (corradino) to 21% (batman).

Asfordby, Melton: 8 Independent (Faulkner) gain from Green, with batman, greenman, peterl and yellowperil Green hold, and iainbhx Labour gain.

Kilnhurst and Swinton East, Rotherham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 23% (kevinf) to 47.2% (Tony Otim).

Bucklow St Martin's, Trafford: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 29% (greenman) to 47% (Right Leaning).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CcLb7SWj7dPxK6MyRGVFGaun78MuQijslf9epIDYH-4/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!