Prediction Competition - November 2023

[manchesterman]

Lewisham
Lab 57, Green 24, LD 10, Con 7

Lincolnshire
Ind Harrison 33, Con 32, Lab 14, Ward 9, Green 7, LD 5

Powys
LD 43, Con 26, Ind Games 21, Lab 6, Ind Markinson 4

South Holland
SHI 43, Con 26, Ind Wheeler 15, Ind Timewell 8, Lab 8

South Kesteven
Ind Swinburne 30, Con 29, Ind Ward 18, Lab 11, Green 8, LD 4

[johnloony]

Lewisham : Lab 14 G 5 LD 3 Con 2
Lincolnshire: Con 11 Lab 5 Grn 4 Ld 1 I 1 I 1
South Holland SHI 3 zaaaaqa Con 150 Lab 100 Ind 50 Ind 50
SKesteven: C4 Lab 2 I2 I2 G1 Ld 1

[peterl]

Lewisham. Deptford. Lab 55 Green 25 LD 14 Con 6
Lincolnshire. Grantham North. Harrison 38 Con 32 Lab 17 LD 6 Ward 4 Green 3
Powys. Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower. LD 40 Con 24 Games 21 Lab 10 Markinson 7. 2x LD win
South Holland. Spalding St Paul’s. Browning - SHI 38, Con 22, Wheeler 18, Lab 14, Timewell 8
South Kesteven. Grantham St Wulfrums. Swinburn 40 Con 24 Lab 15 Ward 10 LD 7 Green 4

[manchesterman]

Nov 8, 2023 23:09:33 GMT johnloony said:

Lewisham : Lab 14 G 5 LD 3 Con 2
Lincolnshire: Con 11 Lab 5 Grn 4 Ld 1 I 1 I 1
South Holland SHI 3 zaaaaqa Con 150 Lab 100 Ind 50 Ind 50
SKesteven: C4 Lab 2 I2 I2 G1 Ld 1

Paging johnloony ... I'm not entirely sure that this was what you meant to post as your final predictions

[corradino]

First, belated thanks to those kind souls who tried to save me from my blunder last Wednesday. It was to no avail as, depressed by Arsenal's defeat that night, I switched off early from the forum. Tonight, by contrast, I feel elated, ready to confront whatever shifting and shifty allegiances Lincolnshire and Powys might put in my path. Here is the result of my no doubt misplaced optimism:-

Lewisham, Deptford: Lab 57, Green 28, LD 10, Con 5.

Lincolnshire, Grantham North: Harrison (Ind)33, Con 31, Lab 20, Green 6, LD 6, Ward (Ind) 4.

South Kesteven, Grantham St Wulfrum's: Con 31, Swinburn (Ind)30, Lab 23, Green 7, Ward (Ind) 5, LD 4.

South Holland, Spalding St Paul's: SHI 40, Con 30, Lab 15, Timewell (Ind) 10, Wheeler (Ind) 5.

Powys, Crickhowell etc: LD 37, Con 20, Lab 18, Games(Ind) 19 Markinson (Ind) 6. 1 LD and Games (!nd)elected.

[Robert Waller]

Lewisham: Lab 62; Grn 25; LD 7; Con 6

Lincolnshire: Harrison 33; Con 30; Lab 22; Ward 5; Grn 5; LD 5

Powys: LD 39; Games 20; Con 20; Markinson 6; Lab 15 (2 x LD elected)

South Holland: SHI 39; Con 27; Timewell 15; Wheeler 9; Lab 10

South Kesteven: Swinburn 33; Con 29; Lab 22; Ward 6; Grn 4; LD 6

[greenman]

Lewisham, Deptford Labour 60.2%/Green 26.9%/LD 7.2%/Con 5.7%
South Kesteven, Grantham St Wulfram's Swinburn 30%/Green 20%/Labour 20%/Conservative 20%/Ward 6%/LD 4%
Lincolnshire, Grantham North Harrison Ind 30%/Conservative 30%/Labour 17%/Green 12%/Ward 6%/LD 5%
South Holland, Spalding St Paul's SHI 50%/Conservative 27%/Labour 10%/Timewell 7%/Wheeler 6%
Powys, Crickhowell with Cwmdu & Tretower LD 50%/50%/Con 35%/Games35%/Labour 15%/Markinson/15%

Hackney Mayor Labour 51%/Green 25%/Conservative 10%/TUSC 7%/LD 5%/Ind 2%

[rightleaning]

Lewisham. Deptford. Lab 61, Gn 23, LD 10, Con 6
Lincolnshire. Grantham North. Harrison 35, Con 34, Lab 19, LD 5, Gn 4, Ward 3
Powys. Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower. LD 42, Con 26, Games 20, Lab 8, Markinson 4 2x LD win
South Holland. Spalding St Paul’s. SHI 43, Con 24, Wheeler 17, Lab 11, Timewell 5
South Kesteven. Grantham St Wulfrums. Swinburn 34, Con 29, Lab 18, Ward 10, LD 5, Green 4

[iainbhx]

Absolute nightmare to predict this week

Lewisham MBC, Deptford: Lab 51, Grn 32, LDm 12, Con 5.

Lincolnshire CC, Grantham North: Con 33, Ind Harrison 30, Lab 16, Ind Ward 9, Grn 7, LDm 5

South Kesteven DC, Grantham St Wulfrum's: Ind Swinburn 33, Con 25, Lab 21, Green 10, Ind Ward 7, LDm 4

South Holland DC, Spalding St Paul's: SHI 38, Con 29, Lab 18, Ind Timewell 9, Ind Wheeler 6.

Powys WUA, Crickhowell: LDm 39, Ind Games 19, Con 17, Lab 14, Ind Markinson 11 - 2 LDm elected but close

[batman]

Nov 9, 2023 6:41:56 GMT iainbhx said:

Absolute nightmare to predict this week

Lewisham MBC, Deptford: Lab 51, Grn 32, LDm 12, Con 5.

Lincolnshire CC, Grantham North: Con 33, Ind Harrison 30, Lab 16, Ind Ward 9, Grn 7, LDm 5

South Kesteven DC, Grantham St Wulfrum's: Ind Swinburn 33, Con 25, Lab 21, Green 10, Ind Ward 7, LDm 4

South Holland DC, Spalding St Paul's: SHI 38, Con 29, Lab 18, Ind Timewell 9, Ind Wheeler 6.

Powys WUA, Crickhowell: LDm 39, Ind Games 19, Con 17, Lab 14, Ind Markinson 11 - 2 LDm elected but close

- you mean it’s all a SHIshow?

[johnloony]

Nov 8, 2023 23:41:20 GMT manchesterman said:

Nov 8, 2023 23:09:33 GMT johnloony said:

Lewisham : Lab 14 G 5 LD 3 Con 2
Lincolnshire: Con 11 Lab 5 Grn 4 Ld 1 I 1 I 1
South Holland SHI 3 zaaaaqa Con 150 Lab 100 Ind 50 Ind 50
SKesteven: C4 Lab 2 I2 I2 G1 Ld 1

Paging johnloony ... I'm not entirely sure that this was what you meant to post as your final predictions

Oh crumbs…

I have been very tired a lot of the time because (for the last 3 weeks or so) I have had a headache in my arm, which (apart from anything else) gets worse when I’m in bed lying down, so it’s difficult to get sleep. And I must have been distracted if I didn’t finish editing it properly.

The numbers are supposed to be hundreds of votes. So it should be:

Lewisham: Lab 1400 Grn 500 LD 300 Con 200
Lincolnshire: Con 1100 Lab 500 Grn 400 LD 100 Ind 100 Ind 100
South Holland: SHI 300 Con 150 Lab 100 Ind 50 Ind 50
South Kesteven: Con 400 Lab 200 Ind 200 Ind 200 Grn 100 LD 100

Which In percentages is:

Lewisham: Lab 58 Grn 21 LD 13 Con 8
Lincolnshire: Con 48 Lab 22 Grn 17 LD 5 Ind 4 Ind 4
South Holland: SHI 46 Con 23 Lab 15 Ind 8 Ind 8
South Kesteven: Con 33 Lab 17 Ind 16 Ind 16 Grn 9 LD 9

[andrewp]

Nov 9, 2023 14:26:39 GMT johnloony said:

Nov 8, 2023 23:41:20 GMT manchesterman said:

Paging johnloony ... I'm not entirely sure that this was what you meant to post as your final predictions

Oh crumbs…

I have been very tired a lot of the time because (for the last 3 weeks or so) I have had a headache in my arm, which (apart from anything else) gets worse when I’m in bed lying down, so it’s difficult to get sleep. And I must have been distracted if I didn’t finish editing it properly.

The numbers are supposed to be hundreds of votes. So it should be:

Lewisham: Lab 1400 Grn 500 LD 300 Con 200
Lincolnshire: Con 1100 Lab 500 Grn 400 LD 100 Ind 100 Ind 100
South Holland: SHI 300 Con 150 Lab 100 Ind 50 Ind 50
South Kesteven: Con 400 Lab 200 Ind 100 Ind 100 Grn 100 LD 100

Which In percentages is:

Lewisham: Lab 58 Grn 21 LD 13 Con 8
Lincolnshire: Con 48 Lab 22 Grn 17 LD 5 Ind 4 Ind 4
South Holland: SHI 46 Con 23 Lab 15 Ind 8 Ind 8
South Kesteven: Con 43 Lab 21 Ind 9 Ind 9 Grn 9 LD 9

You have omitted the Powys contest as well.

[johnloony]

Nov 9, 2023 14:37:25 GMT andrewp said:

Nov 9, 2023 14:26:39 GMT johnloony said:

Oh crumbs…

I have been very tired a lot of the time because (for the last 3 weeks or so) I have had a headache in my arm, which (apart from anything else) gets worse when I’m in bed lying down, so it’s difficult to get sleep. And I must have been distracted if I didn’t finish editing it properly.

The numbers are supposed to be hundreds of votes. So it should be:

Lewisham: Lab 1400 Grn 500 LD 300 Con 200
Lincolnshire: Con 1100 Lab 500 Grn 400 LD 100 Ind 100 Ind 100
South Holland: SHI 300 Con 150 Lab 100 Ind 50 Ind 50
South Kesteven: Con 400 Lab 200 Ind 100 Ind 100 Grn 100 LD 100

Which In percentages is:

Lewisham: Lab 58 Grn 21 LD 13 Con 8
Lincolnshire: Con 48 Lab 22 Grn 17 LD 5 Ind 4 Ind 4
South Holland: SHI 46 Con 23 Lab 15 Ind 8 Ind 8
South Kesteven: Con 43 Lab 21 Ind 9 Ind 9 Grn 9 LD 9

You have omitted the Powys contest as well.

Oh frothdribble

[johnloony]

Powys: LD 400 LD 400 Con 200 Con 200 Ind 150 Ind 150 Lab 80
LD 48 Con 24 Ind 18 Lab 10

[johnloony]

I’ve only just realised that last week I was the third best predictionist, even though on that occasion I was also very tired and ai scrambled a few numbers just by looking at other people’s predictions without looking at the actual stuff in any detail.

[yellowperil]

This has been one hell of a week for predictors, I guess, but I wouldn't fancy trying to moderate this lot either.

Robbie, have fun...

[Robert Waller]

Well, we have to wait for robbienicoll to sort out all this mayhem ... but on my rough calculations I can't sort out a week winner from about five contestants! (yellowperil, rightleaning, kevinf, andrewp and myself)

But I am fairly sure iainbhx is still in the lead for the month, with maybe yellowperil just ahead among those dicing for second place.

I look forward to various official rulings...!

[robbienicoll]

An extremely difficult week, both in terms of predictions and moderation. First off is johnloony, I tried every way to see if I could decipher something which would reduce the time penalty but no luck. Posting the full predictions 5 hours after deadline incurs a 50 fault penalty per contest, which I have halved on the premise that an attempted posting was made - this totals 100. Powys has incurred the full 50 as it wasn't included in the initial post. I am desperately sorry about this one, especially since without those faults John would have won the week quite comfortably 

The other main one was batman in Powys. I didn't feel it was fair to penalise based on an instruction that wasn't explicit, so I have interpreted the prediction on the basis that both Independents would be elected and the top percentages given to the other parties - both would have been largely unaltered had batman predicted the independents separately. I capped both Independents at the maximum they would be able to win the seats (favouring Games with the extra 1%) and reduced everyone by 5% so that the total would reach 100%. In the end this one didn't matter hugely as the Lib Dems won both, but for future reference in all multi-seat elections Independents and No Descriptions alone are treated as separate entities (a lesson which South Holland Council has hopefully learned tonight!)

Additional faults were given to greenman (50, for going over in Powys), manchesterman (2 for going under in Lewisham), peterl (2, for going over in Powys) and Richard Cromwell (2, for going under in South Kesteven). Incidentally, welcome back Richard!

Deptford, Lewisham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 15% (kevinf) to 50% (Richard Cromwell).

Grantham North, Lincolnshire: 10 Independent (Harrison) gain from Conservative, with iainbhx, johnloony and Richard Cromwell Conservative hold.

Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower, Powys: 11 Liberal Democrats hold of both seats, batman with both Independents gaining both, and corradino Liberal Democrat hold and Independent (Games) gain. corradino, I'd noticed that despite you having Games winning you had him behind the Conservatives, just something to keep an eye out for!

Spalding St Pauls, South Holland: 100% South Holland Independent hold, majorities ranging from 1% (batman) to 38% (Richard Cromwell).

Grantham St Wulfram's, South Kesteven: 9 Independent (Swinburn) gain from Conservative, with batman, corradino and johnloony Conservative hold, and Richard Cromwell Green gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AuGQkaoq7knMJNiPn-XkyxndrtcfXBxzgwEvv1dnxqo/edit?usp=sharing - it's a very tight win for Robert Waller with less than 10 faults separating first and sixth. Although as mentioned above I think credit has to go to John Loony for a weekly win in all but the final result.

Now for a lie down!

[Robert Waller]

Well, thank you very much indeed for all that work, robbienicoll ... I'm not sure anyone else would have taken this on.

I should say I 'liked' the post before I saw who had been declared winner for the week. I had 10 fewer faults for yellowperil which is why I wrote what I did in the post two above, but I'm sure it was my addition that was at 'fault'! Still a very close result in one of the most difficult weeks I can remember.

[johnloony]

Nov 10, 2023 1:51:26 GMT robbienicoll said:

An extremely difficult week, both in terms of predictions and moderation. First off is johnloony, I tried every way to see if I could decipher something which would reduce the time penalty but no luck. Posting the full predictions 5 hours after deadline incurs a 50 fault penalty per contest, which I have halved on the premise that an attempted posting was made - this totals 100. Powys has incurred the full 50 as it wasn't included in the initial post. I am desperately sorry about this one,

Don’t worry. I don’t want any special treatment. It was my fault that I didn’t do my predikshun properly. Having a headache in my arm and being very tired is a reason but not an excuse. King Cnut didn’t say “Please sir, my dog ate my homework” when he got his feet wet. Anybody who enters the prediction competition has to do so according to the rules.

especially since without those faults John would have won the week quite comfortably 

Oh would I? This is outrageous! I demand compensation! I demand a public enquiry! Why should I be punished just because my arm is hurting? What difference does five hours make when nobody knows anything about how people are voting anyway? I demand that all five by-elections be decalred null and void and should be re-run so that I can do it properly. I blame Piers Corbyn. It’s all part of a conspiracy by the Deep State. This shows that Enoch Icke was right all along. Bring back Enver Hoxha! Rroftë Populli! Jemi gati kurdohere!