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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 3, 2023 9:22:36 GMT
13 entries to begin the month, with Right Leaning returning and Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev both out. All on time, but with corradino having a phantom Labour candidate instead of Green in Elmbridge, thereby incurring a 5 point penalty for not reaching 100. *snip* With apologies to yellowperil, I've noticed that he also has a phantom Labour candidate in place of the Lib Dem in Argyll and Bute, which is unfortunately 10 faults for going under 100. Results are linked in the above post with only Trafford to go. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 3, 2023 9:51:55 GMT
13 entries to begin the month, with Right Leaning returning and Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev both out. All on time, but with corradino having a phantom Labour candidate instead of Green in Elmbridge, thereby incurring a 5 point penalty for not reaching 100. *snip* With apologies to yellowperil , I've noticed that he also has a phantom Labour candidate in place of the Lib Dem in Argyll and Bute, which is unfortunately 10 faults for going under 100. Results are linked in the above post with only Trafford to go. How did I manage that? I meant Lib Dem, of course I did. I was too busy trying to alert Corradino to his mistype to notice my own.  |
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 3, 2023 10:18:14 GMT
In case anyone is wondering my prediction of a Lab victory on Melton DC was mainly a hunch.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2023 10:31:58 GMT
In case anyone is wondering my prediction of a Lab victory on Melton DC was mainly a hunch. I did wonder if it was totally out of the question, given their previous history there. |
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Post by kevinf on Nov 3, 2023 11:53:47 GMT
I think we can safely congratulate Iain, impressive to win with one still to declare…
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 3, 2023 12:07:48 GMT
In case anyone is wondering my prediction of a Lab victory on Melton DC was mainly a hunch. I did wonder if it was totally out of the question, given their previous history there. I wonder if geography also played a part - the other 3 candidates were all from Melton itself, whilst the Labour one I think was a bit closer to Asfordby itself? |
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 3, 2023 12:26:19 GMT
I did wonder if it was totally out of the question, given their previous history there. I wonder if geography also played a part - the other 3 candidates were all from Melton itself, whilst the Labour one I think was a bit closer to Asfordby itself? Yes, just over the river in Frisby, which came up in local social media as well. I think that, prior history, the unusually high number of rail related jobs and candidate proximity tilted me into making the hunch. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 3, 2023 13:30:11 GMT
I am sure that iainbhx has won the week convincingly, but I do think that something has gone wrong with the scores. Could robbienicoll have a look at the way the total faults in South Kintyre do not seem to be the sum of those for each candidate? |
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 3, 2023 14:06:38 GMT
I am sure that iainbhx has won the week convincingly, but I do think that something has gone wrong with the scores. Could robbienicoll have a look at the way the total faults in South Kintyre do not seem to be the sum of those for each candidate? Now amended, hadn't copied in the full range, fortunately not too much of a difference in the rankings as a result and iain remains in the lead. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 3, 2023 17:37:00 GMT
Thinking back to what happened to my entry for Kintyre south- the version in my notebook was of course correct with a reasonably realistic prediction for the Lib Dem and no phantom Labour. Because I was struggling with illness I nearly missed actually typing them in on here, but in the end found a few minutes to do so just inside the deadline. But typing the Kintyre line I was obviously not thinking at all, and how I set out the parties Labour always comes second after the Tories,but in this case they fiendishly had failed to muster a candidate. And then checking back I made sure the total added to 100, but failed to notice I didn't have a Lib Dem(oh the shame of that).And because I was so late , no kind person could point out my error as some us were trying to do for corradino. In the end, that was costly- I think without that mistype, I would have been second for the week but still would have been behind iainbhx of course. However I could very easily have missed the cut altogether, so I suppose I should take consolation in that. At least I won in Rotherham, which is the new Burnley. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 6, 2023 13:57:45 GMT
robbienicoll Are we treating the Indies in Crickhowell this week as a team or separately? batman treated them as a team in his early prediction
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Post by kevinf on Nov 6, 2023 14:51:37 GMT
robbienicoll Are we treating the Indies in Crickhowell this week as a team or separately? batman treated them as a team in his early prediction And are we doing the Hackney Mayoral separately? |
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Post by robbienicoll on Nov 6, 2023 19:54:12 GMT
robbienicoll Are we treating the Indies in Crickhowell this week as a team or separately? batman treated them as a team in his early prediction Separately, I know there's been controversy over this before but I'm happier on this occasion that they aren't on the same ticket. I'll have a think about how to handle batman's since I didn't specify. Hackney mayoralty isn't included in the competition but feel free to pop something down. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 7, 2023 21:25:16 GMT
What an absolutely horrible week to predict:
Lewisham: Lab 56.1; Grn 29.0; LD 9.2; Con 5.7
Lincolnshire: Harrison 31.9; Con 24.0; Lab 17.0; Ward 12.1; Grn 10.8; LD 4.2
Powys: LD 37.6; Games 26.6; Con 23.1; Markinson 7.4; Lab 5.3 (2xLD elected)
South Holland: SHI 39.8; Con 26.7; Timewell 14.5; Wheeler 11.1; Lab 7.9
South Kesteven: Swinburn 27.7; Con 22.4; Lab 20.4; Ward 19.2; Grn 7.3; LD 3.0
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Nov 8, 2023 10:48:27 GMT
Spalding St Paul's, South Holland| South Holland Independents | 58% | | CON | 20% | | LAB | 12% | | Stephen Timewell | 7% | | Julian Wheeler | 3% |
Grantham St Wulfram's, South Kesteven| GRN | 35% | | CON | 34% | | LAB | 19% | | LDEM | 7% | | Susan Swinburn | 3% | | James Osborn | 2% |
Deptford, London Borough of LewishamGrantham North, Lincolnshire| CON | 45% | | LAB | 23% | | GRN | 13% | | LDEM | 10% | | Tim Harrison | 5% | | Dean Ward | 4% |
Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower, Powys| LDEM | 44% | | Sam Games | 29% | | CON | 19% | | LAB | 8% | | David Markinson | 0% |
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Post by kevinf on Nov 8, 2023 12:05:18 GMT
Lewisham
Lab 50, Green 35, Con 8, LD 7
Lincolnshire
Ind Harrison 32, Con 30, Lab 13.5, Green 10, LD 7.5, Ind Ward 7
Powys
LD 50, Con 30, Ind Games 10, Lab 5.5, Ind Markinson 4.5
South Holland
SHI 35, Con 30, Ind Wheeler 21, Ind Timewell 7, Lab 7
South Kesteven
Ind Swinburne 30, Con 29, Green 15, Lab 12, Ind Ward 9, LD 5
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2023 12:09:51 GMT
Lewisham Lab 50, Green 35, Con 8, LD 7 Lincolnshire Ind Harrison 32, Con 30, Lab 13.5, Green 10, LD 7.5, Ind Ward 7 Powys LD 50, Con 3, Ind Games 10, Lab 5.5, Ind Markinson 4.5 South Holland SHI 35, Con 30, Ind Wheeler 21, Ind Timewell 7, Lab 7 South Kesteven Ind Swinburne 30, Con 29, Green 15, Lab 12, Ind Ward 9, LD 5 Think you might have missed a zero in Powys? |
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Post by kevinf on Nov 8, 2023 17:09:36 GMT
Lewisham Lab 50, Green 35, Con 8, LD 7 Lincolnshire Ind Harrison 32, Con 30, Lab 13.5, Green 10, LD 7.5, Ind Ward 7 Powys LD 50, Con 3, Ind Games 10, Lab 5.5, Ind Markinson 4.5 South Holland SHI 35, Con 30, Ind Wheeler 21, Ind Timewell 7, Lab 7 South Kesteven Ind Swinburne 30, Con 29, Green 15, Lab 12, Ind Ward 9, LD 5 Think you might have missed a zero in Powys? Cheers, will amend. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 8, 2023 22:33:00 GMT
Some horrors to predict here
Lewisham. Deptford. Lab 60 Green 22 LD 12 Con 6
Lincolnshire. Grantham North. Harrison 37 Con 34 Lab 15 Ward 5 LD 5 Green 4
Powys. Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower. LD 44 Con 28 Games 17 Lab 6 Markinson 5. 2x LD win
South Holland. Spalding St Paul’s. Browning - SHI 40, Con 25, Wheeler 15, Lab 12, Timewell 8
South Kesteven. Grantham St Wulfrums. Swinburn 40 Con 30 Lab 13 Ward 7 LD 5 Green 5
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 8, 2023 23:03:23 GMT
Lewisham, Deptford: Con 7, Lab 60, LD 11, GP 22.
Lincolnshire, Grantham N: Con 36, Lab 13, LD 5, GP 5, Ind H 36, Ind W 5. Ind Harrison to win.
South Holland, Spalding St Pauls: Con 26, Lab 10, Ind T 7, Ind W 17, SHI 40.
South Kesteven, Grantham St Wulframs: Con 30, Lab 14, LD 5, GP 6, Ind S 38 Ind W 7.
Powys, Crickhowell, etc: Con 26, Lab 5, LD 45, Ind G 20, Ind M 4. LD x2 seats.
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