Prediction Competition - November 2023

[Robert Waller]

Quite a swift set of declarations tonight, especially given that Notlob had to count two ...

By my rough calculations, I think yellowperil may be ahead for the night, as it were, with iainbhx close behind and holding his month lead, ahead of YP who has overtaken me.

As ever, I await the authoritative word from robbienicoll, plus if course there is Doncaster to come tomorrow, where we have some varying assessments of the Independent's strength.

[yellowperil]

Nov 17, 2023 0:23:27 GMT Robert Waller said:

Quite a swift set of declarations tonight, especially given that Notlob had to count two ...

By my rough calculations, I think yellowperil may be ahead for the night, as it were, with iainbhx close behind and holding his month lead, ahead of YP who has overtaken me.

As ever, I await the authoritative word from robbienicoll , plus if course there is Doncaster to come tomorrow, where we have some varying assessments of the Independent's strength.

We have that authoritative word now, but that does mean all now hinges on the idle lot in Doncaster, sometime after lunch probably. I may well have shot my bolt there and gone for the Indy winning, so plenty of room to come crashing down. 

[iainbhx]

Nov 17, 2023 0:47:16 GMT yellowperil said:

Nov 17, 2023 0:23:27 GMT Robert Waller said:

Quite a swift set of declarations tonight, especially given that Notlob had to count two ...

By my rough calculations, I think yellowperil may be ahead for the night, as it were, with iainbhx close behind and holding his month lead, ahead of YP who has overtaken me.

As ever, I await the authoritative word from robbienicoll , plus if course there is Doncaster to come tomorrow, where we have some varying assessments of the Independent's strength.

We have that authoritative word now, but that does mean all now hinges on the idle lot in Doncaster, sometime after lunch probably. I may well have shot my bolt there and gone for the Indy winning, so plenty of room to come crashing down. 

Bold moves sometimes pay off, after all it was my hunch that Labour could win in Melton which put me ahead. We'll see about lunchtime.

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to iainbhx for the week's win and an extension of his month lead; and honourable mention for the podium position of greenman after he shared his advice on Wrington and most of us failed to take notice!

Commiserations to yellowperil after his bold move on today's count misfired, ruining an otherwise excellent week.
But I know that part of South Yorkshire quite well, and reckoned it would be difficult for a local Independent when there are two very different and quite widely separated communities involved (Rossington and Bawtry); and also his previous percentage was inflated by being a single candidate in a three member ward. Only one vote now being available was likely to present a further problem.

[yellowperil]

Nov 17, 2023 14:48:49 GMT Robert Waller said:

Congratulations to iainbhx for the week's win and an extension of his month lead; and honourable mention for the podium position of greenman after he shared his advice on Wrington and most of us failed to take notice!

Commiserations to yellowperil after his bold move on today's count misfired, ruining an otherwise excellent week.
But I know that part of South Yorkshire quite well, and reckoned it would be difficult for a local Independent when there are two very different and quite widely separated communities involved (Rossington and Bawtry); and also his previous percentage was inflated by being a single candidate in a three member ward. Only one vote now being available was likely to present a further problem.

Yup- when a hunch pays off it's great but when it doesn't you are just left feeling stupid and ignorant .

 Especially when folk helpfully point out  just why  the hunch was flawed in the first place

[Robert Waller]

I am likely to forget the one on the 22nd so

POWYS UA; Talybont-on-Usk (LD resigned)
Candidates:
DEVLIN, Raiff (Liberal Democrat) 35%
DE WINTON, Charles (Conservative) 26%
FITZPATRICK, Liam (Independent) 38%
MARKINSON, David (Independent) 1%

[greenman]

Powys - Talybont-on-Usk Fitzpatrick 35%/LD 27.6%/Markinson 20.1%/Con 17.3%
Cambridge - Queen Edith LD 35%/Lab 28%/Green 19%/Con 18%
Newham - Plaistow North Labour 29.6%/Green 23.5%/Sophia Naqvi 22.7%/Con 14.2%/Khan 7.1%/LD 2.9%

[Richard Cromwell]

Talybont-on-Usk, Powys

LDEM	30%
David Markinson	27%
Liam Fitzpatrick	26%
CON	17%

Queen Edith's, Cambridge

LDEM	40%
LAB	26%
CON	19%
GRN	15%

Plaistow North, London Borough of Newham

LAB	36%
GRN	25%
LDEM	12%
Anas Khan	10%
Sophia Naqvi	9%
CON	8%

[kevinf]

Powys
LibDem 34, Ind Fitzpatrick 31, Con 20, Ind Markinson 15

[corradino]

Powys, Talybont: Fitzpatrick (Ind)34, Con 33, LD 32, Markinson (Ind) 1.

[Tony Otim]

This is a really tough month - another hard week this week:
Powys: Fitzpatrick 39.9; Con 33.3; LD 24.2; Markinson 2.6
Cambridge: LD 43.5; Lab 27.1; Con 19.2; Grn 10.2
Newham: Lab 34.2; Naqvi 25.4; Grn 18.6; Con 9.7; Khan 8.6; LD 3.5

[andrewp]

Powys. Fitzpatrick 39 LD 34 Con 24 Markinson 3

[johnloony]

Powys: LD 33 IndF 27 IndM 22 Con 18
Cambridge: LD 38 Lab 29 Grn 19 Con 14
Newham: Lab 48 Grn 22 Con 11 IndKh 10 IndN 5 LD 4

[yellowperil]

Powys, Talybont on Usk: Con 25, LD 35, Ind Fitzpatrick 38, Ind Markinson 2.

[manchesterman]

Powys: LD 33, Fitzpatrick 31, Con 28 , Markinson 8

Cambridge: LD 38, Lab 24, Con 20, Grn 18

Newham: Lab 30, Grn 24, Naqvi 24, Con 9, Khan 9, LD 4

[peterl]

Powys: LD 36 IndF 25 Con 21 IndM 18
Cambridge: LD 37 Lab 32 Grn 21 Con 10
Newham: Lab 42 Grn 24 IndK 12 Con 10 IndN 7 LD 5

[rightleaning]

Powys, Talybont on Usk: LD 39, Ind Fitzpatrick 33, Con 23, Ind Markinson 5.

[iainbhx]

Powys WUA, Talybont on Usk: Ind Fitzpatrick 39, LDm 36, Con 21, Ind Markinson 4

[kevinf]

Cambridge
LD 40, Lab 25, Con 20, Green 15
Newham
Lab 35, Ind Khan 30, Green 13, Con 10, LD 7, Ind Naqvi 5

[batman]

POWYS, Talybont-on-Usk (if I'm not too late) : LD 44 Ind Fitzpatrick 28 C 22 Ind Markinson 6