Local Council by-elections 22nd/23rd November 2023

[Tony Otim]

22nd November:


POWYS UA; Talybont-on-Usk (LD resigned)
Candidates:
DEVLIN, Raiff (Liberal Democrat)
DE WINTON, Charles (Conservative)
FITZPATRICK, Liam (Independent)
MARKINSON, David (Independent)

2022: LD 236; No Desc 217; Con 206; Ind 195

Charles De Winton (Con) was the Independent candidate last May. Also in 2022,Raiff Devlin (LD) stood in Yscir with Honddu Isaf & Llanddew David Markinson (Ind) stood in Llandrinio and is also contesting the Crickhowell with Cwmdu & Tretower by-election 2 weeks previous to this. Liam Fitzpatrick is a former councillor for the ward on previous boundaries – elected as a LD in 2008 and Independent in 2012 and 2017 (unopposed in the latter), but did not stand last May.

Current Council: LD 19; Con 14; Lab 9; Ind 8; Ind 4 Powys 6; Not specified 5; PC 3; Grn 1; 3 vacancies



23rd November:

CAMBRIDGE DC; Queen Edith’s (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
BLACKBURN-HORGAN, Immy (Liberal Democrat)
CARMONA, David (Conservative)
FISHER, Oliver Edward (Green)
RON, Thomas (Labour)

2023: LD 1131; Lab 709; Con 580; Grn 306; Ind 261
2022: LD 1202; Lab 881; Grn 396; Con 382
2021: Ind 1874, 536; LD 1074, 816, 709; Lab 647, 647, 554; Con 512, 279, 199; Grn 473, 377, 318

Vacancy is for the 2021-24 term. Thomas Ron was the Labour candidate here in May.

Current Council: Lab 25; LD 10; Grn 4; Con 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NEWHAM LBC; Plaistow North (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
ALAM, Aktharul (Labour)
CLIFFORD, James Stuart (Conservative)
KHAN, Anas (Independent)
KHEYRE, Zahra (Green)
NAQVI, Sophia (Independent)
SHAH, Taqi (Independent) nomination withdrawn...
TERRAR, David Graham (Liberal Democrat)

2022: Lab 2151, 2022, 1936; Grn 560, 518, 390; Con 523, 522, 390

David Terrar (LD) was their candidate in the July by-election in Boleyn and stood in Forest Gate South last year. Also last year, James Clifford (Con) stood in East Ham South,

Current Council: Lab 61; Grn 2; Ind 2; 1 vacancy

[batman]

Thomas Ron is incorrectly described as Ron Thomas on the Cambridge council site election results section. He is not the former Labour MP Ron Thomas. He works I think for Daniel Zeichner.

[Deleted]

I think Lib Dems should take Queen Edith's, but keep in mind the 2023 result saw a Tory surge on account of congestion charging, IIRC:

2023 - Queen Edith's
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrats Karen Young 1,131 37.9 –4.1
Labour Thomas Ron 709 23.7 –7.1
Conservative Gordon Gregory 580 19.4 +6.0
Green Jacqueline Whitmore 306 10.2 –3.6
Independent Antony Carpen 261 8.7 N/A
Majority 422 14.2 +3.0
Turnout 2,987
Liberal Democrats hold Swing Increase1.5

Given recent events, an independent win in Plaistow North wouldn't shock me at all.

[The Bishop]

Three independents here though, as opposed to just one in the byelection Labour recently lost.

(and the winner there campaigned on traffic issues amongst other things, not Palestine)

[maxque]

Oct 29, 2023 11:40:05 GMT The Bishop said:

Three independents here though, as opposed to just one in the byelection Labour recently lost.

(and the winner there campaigned on traffic issues amongst other things, not Palestine)

From a short research, it seems that Khan is a former Labour member, linked to the campaign to deselect Wales and select Fiah and allegations by Opennewham he is linked to the Tablighi Jamaat. Stridently pro-Palestine.
Navqi seems to be a very westernized woman with barely any existence online.
Shah is the former CLP secretary for East Ham. Seems to be a continuity Corbynite.

[timrollpickering]

Oct 27, 2023 17:40:26 GMT Tony Otim said:

23rd November:

NEWHAM LBC; Plaistow North (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
ALAM, Aktharul (Labour)
CLIFFORD, James Stuart (Conservative)
KHAN, Anas (Independent)
KHEYRE, Zahra (Green)
NAQVI, Sophia (Independent)
SHAH, Taqi (Independent)
TERRAR, David Graham (Liberal Democrat)

I am the agent for James Clifford and will not be commenting on this one here other to confirm any formal details.

Taqi Shah's nomination was withdrawn before the close. Withdrawn nominations appear on the SOPN but not the ballot paper.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Oct 29, 2023 10:44:55 GMT @weld said:

I think Lib Dems should take Queen Edith's, but keep in mind the 2023 result saw a Tory surge on account of congestion charging, IIRC:

2023 - Queen Edith's
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrats Karen Young 1,131 37.9 –4.1
Labour Thomas Ron 709 23.7 –7.1
Conservative Gordon Gregory 580 19.4 +6.0
Green Jacqueline Whitmore 306 10.2 –3.6
Independent Antony Carpen 261 8.7 N/A
Majority 422 14.2 +3.0
Turnout 2,987
Liberal Democrats hold Swing Increase1.5

Given recent events, an independent win in Plaistow North wouldn't shock me at all.

The congestion charging plans have now been withdrawn, FWIW.

[The Bishop]

Ah, missed that. I wonder if the summer byelection helped that process along at all.

[East Anglian Lefty]

It certainly didn't encourage it. For a while it looked like the proposals were going to come back in a revised form, but then South Cambs Lib Dems pulled support and that meant there was no way to get it through the GCP.

That said, it or other controversial traffic management schemes are inevitably going to come back in a few years time, because everybody agrees that the city's roads are congested and that you can't achieve modal shift without reducing the number of cars, because otherwise the public transport will be too slow and unreliable to be an attractive alternative. It's just a question of whether there's ever a situation where it gets put through despite public opposition (and is then either accepted as an improvement or overturned a couple of years later) or whether the whole dance repeats another few times.

[finsobruce]

Oct 30, 2023 9:41:35 GMT The Bishop said:

Ah, missed that. I wonder if the summer byelection helped that process along at all.

As surely as night follows day.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 30, 2023 0:18:25 GMT timrollpickering said:

Oct 27, 2023 17:40:26 GMT Tony Otim said:

23rd November:

NEWHAM LBC; Plaistow North (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
ALAM, Aktharul (Labour)
CLIFFORD, James Stuart (Conservative)
KHAN, Anas (Independent)
KHEYRE, Zahra (Green)
NAQVI, Sophia (Independent)
SHAH, Taqi (Independent)
TERRAR, David Graham (Liberal Democrat)

I am the agent for James Clifford and will not be commenting on this one here other to confirm any formal details.

Taqi Shah's nomination was withdrawn before the close. Withdrawn nominations appear on the SOPN but not the ballot paper.

Thanks - one of these days, I'll actually spot one of those before i post ...

[stodge]

I'm indebted to the Open Newham website for revealing the complexities behind the Plaistow North candidates.

www.opennewham.co.uk/news/are-leading-labour-councillors-supporting-an-opposition-candidate

Anas Khan is running as a pro-Labour spoiler against Sophia Naqvi who is the candidate, while officially Independent, of Mehmood Mirza's anti-Labour faction. Mirza won the next door Boleyn by-election in the summer trouncing the Labour candidate to become the third opposition councillor on Newham (alongside the two Greens).

The view on the ground seems to be this is going to be a tough fight for Labour - there is the possibility the anti-Labour vote will split (the Green candidate is well known locally). Events in Gaza have intervened with the Labour and Independent candidates rushing to confirm their support for Gaza to shore up the vote in the Muslim community.

www.opennewham.co.uk/news/labour-candidate-stresses-muslim-identity-opposition-stress-incompetence

We've had the spectacle of Mehmood Mirza, Anas Khan and Rokhsana Fiaz all organising pro-Gaza vigils at the Town Hall in recent days.

I imagine the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have chosen to opt out and stock up on the popcorn.

[stodge]

Latest from Plaistow North:

www.opennewham.co.uk/news/the-campaign-enters-the-final-week

Open Newham is fiercely anti-Labour and seems to give Mirza and his candidates an easy ride by comparison.

[greenman]

So tonight I read that an international legal group has sent out statements to President Biden, Prime Minister of Canada, members of the Dutch government and UK Prime Minister and Starmer and two members of his shadow cabinet saying they are considering seeking charges at the ICC for aiding and abetting War Crimes by the Israelis government in Gaza. Starmer is on the list for apparently supporting the turning off of water and electricity, holding back food and medicines to residents of Gaza. Whether one agrees with the actions or not of any group I am wondering how word of these allegations is going to affect the Labour candidates vote in North Plaistow? I am wondering this, especially in light of the Boleyn by-election result on July 13th this year. Labour lost 27% of their May vote and the Conservatives 15.6%, while the Green vote went up 3.5%. This suggests that the political splintering is crossing typical ideological lines.

[batman]

Nov 18, 2023 6:24:54 GMT greenman said:

So tonight I read that an international legal group has sent out statements to President Biden, Prime Minister of Canada, members of the Dutch government and UK Prime Minister and Starmer and two members of his shadow cabinet saying they are considering seeking charges at the ICC for aiding and abetting War Crimes by the Israelis government in Gaza. Starmer is on the list for apparently supporting the turning off of water and electricity, holding back food and medicines to residents of Gaza. Whether one agrees with the actions or not of any group I am wondering how word of these allegations is going to affect the Labour candidates vote in North Plaistow? I am wondering this, especially in light of the Boleyn by-election result on July 13th this year. Labour lost 27% of their May vote and the Conservatives 15.6%, while the Green vote went up 3.5%. This suggests that the political splintering is crossing typical ideological lines.

how can an opposition politician, no matter what you think of his or her views, from a non-combatant country be legally guilty of aiding and abetting war crimes? Or indeed governing personalities from non-combatant countries?

[batman]

And I take it that this august and learned group has no interest in those who have supported Hamas in its murderous activities.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 18, 2023 6:24:54 GMT greenman said:

So tonight I read that an international legal group has sent out statements to President Biden, Prime Minister of Canada, members of the Dutch government and UK Prime Minister and Starmer and two members of his shadow cabinet saying they are considering seeking charges at the ICC for aiding and abetting War Crimes by the Israelis government in Gaza. Starmer is on the list for apparently supporting the turning off of water and electricity, holding back food and medicines to residents of Gaza. Whether one agrees with the actions or not of any group I am wondering how word of these allegations is going to affect the Labour candidates vote in North Plaistow? I am wondering this, especially in light of the Boleyn by-election result on July 13th this year. Labour lost 27% of their May vote and the Conservatives 15.6%, while the Green vote went up 3.5%. This suggests that the political splintering is crossing typical ideological lines.

That just seems like a truly infantile, stupid and futile waste of time for all involved. And I'm speaking as someone who supports calls for a ceasefire.

In terms of electoral impact, zero probably- most people will never hear of it and those that do won't care or will have their mind already made up if Gaza is such an important issue to them.

[maxque]

Nov 18, 2023 6:24:54 GMT greenman said:

So tonight I read that an international legal group has sent out statements to President Biden, Prime Minister of Canada, members of the Dutch government and UK Prime Minister and Starmer and two members of his shadow cabinet saying they are considering seeking charges at the ICC for aiding and abetting War Crimes by the Israelis government in Gaza. Starmer is on the list for apparently supporting the turning off of water and electricity, holding back food and medicines to residents of Gaza. Whether one agrees with the actions or not of any group I am wondering how word of these allegations is going to affect the Labour candidates vote in North Plaistow? I am wondering this, especially in light of the Boleyn by-election result on July 13th this year. Labour lost 27% of their May vote and the Conservatives 15.6%, while the Green vote went up 3.5%. This suggests that the political splintering is crossing typical ideological lines.

Considering Trudeau got Netanhayu fuming by saying that the current military operations by Israel are the main cause of instability in the Middle East at this moment, they are sorely misinformed.

[greenman]

Well all I can point to is that between May 2022 and July 13th 2023 in Boleyn the Labour vote dropped from 69.8-57.3% to 32.1% and the Conservatives dropped from 21.4% to 14.6% to 2.5%. So my question is are those declines going to be continue in North Plaistow and why? Here in British Columbia the centrist liberals and the centre-right conservatives and the social-conservatives used to operate in one party, but right now they have split into two groups, causing their vote into two halves. Lots of angry voters around right now for a variety of reasons.

Also note the Green vote went up from 5.2% in 2018 to 16.7% in 2022 in Newham and grew from 20.8% to 15% to 21.1% between 2022 and 2023, so I am wondering if this by-election could become a three way fight between Labour, the Independents and Green in this by-election?

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Nov 18, 2023 6:24:54 GMT greenman said:

So tonight I read that an international legal group has sent out statements to President Biden, Prime Minister of Canada, members of the Dutch government and UK Prime Minister and Starmer and two members of his shadow cabinet saying they are considering seeking charges at the ICC for aiding and abetting War Crimes by the Israelis government in Gaza. Starmer is on the list for apparently supporting the turning off of water and electricity, holding back food and medicines to residents of Gaza. Whether one agrees with the actions or not of any group I am wondering how word of these allegations is going to affect the Labour candidates vote in North Plaistow? I am wondering this, especially in light of the Boleyn by-election result on July 13th this year. Labour lost 27% of their May vote and the Conservatives 15.6%, while the Green vote went up 3.5%. This suggests that the political splintering is crossing typical ideological lines.

Nobody in North Plaistow is going to even be remotely aware of any crank organisation sending spurious messages to global leaders.