Local Council by-elections 22nd/23rd November 2023

[batman]

I know Queen Edith’s was worked in May. Perhaps it’s the effects of the congestion charge wearing off

[The Bishop]

Nov 24, 2023 7:36:34 GMT YL said:

Gaza may well be a factor in Plaistow North, but Labour also lost Boleyn ward to an Independent in July, and AIUI the winning candidate in that one endorsed Naqvi. So I don't think it's just about the Middle East.

I don't doubt it had a negative effect for Labour, but the once invincible electoral machine of the Robin Wales era is now clearly more beatable generally.

[iain]

Nov 24, 2023 11:00:09 GMT robert1 said:

Is there a trend developing in areas which would previously have been regarded as natural LD targets which now seem to be moving more to Labour.

Mid Beds isn’t a natural Lib Dem target (or a natural Labour target for that matter).

[ricmk]

Did Labour simply have the stronger candidate? Immy Horgan-Blackburn is around 25 and hasn't been in Cambridge all that long (2 min google suggests she was brought up in Letchworth and has worked in Berlin) Labour candidate well-established and connected. Key thing for Lib Dems will be persuading those Green and Lab voters to back them in the General - and having good local councillors will help with that.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I doubt that's a big part of the picture. Tom Ron can't be that much older and whilst he's been involved in campaigning for a long time, I don't think his profile in the ward is any more established than having been the candidate who stood in May. Apparently he ran quite a good campaign, but I don't think his profile in of itself was that decisive.

[stodge]

I'm far from convinced Gaza had much impact in Plaistow North.

The majority of Muslims in Newham are from Bangladesh, Pakistan and sub-saharan Africa not the Middle East.

I think what we saw, as in Boleyn, was Mirza's ability to push dissatisfaction with the current council into a strong anti-Labour vote. On most measures, Newham has declined since 2018 and particularly with the coming of Mayor Fiaz. As I said elsewhere and once again channelling my inner Cleverly, Newham was a sh8thole but it was a well run sh8thole. Currently, and this is happening in almost all Councils, funding problems are putting huge pressure on Services and the result is a general sense of deterioration and breakdown.

In other authorities, the LDs and Greens might have been able to take advantage of local dissatisfaction but Mirza's Newham Independents have grabbed that role and are playing it strongly. As to whether they pose a coherent threat to Labour's domination of the Borough, I suspect they don't have the capacity to fight 22 Wards simultaenously. In July, they fought and won Boleyn but didn't even contest Wall End. It may be Mirza will concentrate on the more strongly Muslim Wards and leave the others - I do think he will stand (and there will be allied candidates) in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton and Stratford & Bow at the GE.

With the defection of a Plashet Councillor, Mirza is now Leader of the Opposition Group with three Councillors, the Greens have two and Labour has 61 so the role of opposition is likely to be more symbolic than actual but it'll be interesting to see if the Labour Group remains coherent and disciplined or whether other Muslim Labour Councillors will leave the Party.

[maxque]

Nov 24, 2023 21:37:39 GMT stodge said:

I'm far from convinced Gaza had much impact in Plaistow North.

The majority of Muslims in Newham are from Bangladesh, Pakistan and sub-saharan Africa not the Middle East.

I think what we saw, as in Boleyn, was Mirza's ability to push dissatisfaction with the current council into a strong anti-Labour vote. On most measures, Newham has declined since 2018 and particularly with the coming of Mayor Fiaz. As I said elsewhere and once again channelling my inner Cleverly, Newham was a sh8thole but it was a well run sh8thole. Currently, and this is happening in almost all Councils, funding problems are putting huge pressure on Services and the result is a general sense of deterioration and breakdown.

In other authorities, the LDs and Greens might have been able to take advantage of local dissatisfaction but Mirza's Newham Independents have grabbed that role and are playing it strongly. As to whether they pose a coherent threat to Labour's domination of the Borough, I suspect they don't have the capacity to fight 22 Wards simultaenously. In July, they fought and won Boleyn but didn't even contest Wall End. It may be Mirza will concentrate on the more strongly Muslim Wards and leave the others - I do think he will stand (and there will be allied candidates) in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton and Stratford & Bow at the GE.

With the defection of a Plashet Councillor, Mirza is now Leader of the Opposition Group with three Councillors, the Greens have two and Labour has 61 so the role of opposition is likely to be more symbolic than actual but it'll be interesting to see if the Labour Group remains coherent and disciplined or whether other Muslim Labour Councillors will leave the Party.

East Ham is also barely represented in the Cabinet compared to West Ham, so it's not surprising the most recent defection is from East.

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Nov 24, 2023 21:37:39 GMT stodge said:

I'm far from convinced Gaza had much impact in Plaistow North.

The majority of Muslims in Newham are from Bangladesh, Pakistan and sub-saharan Africa not the Middle East.

I think what we saw, as in Boleyn, was Mirza's ability to push dissatisfaction with the current council into a strong anti-Labour vote. On most measures, Newham has declined since 2018 and particularly with the coming of Mayor Fiaz. As I said elsewhere and once again channelling my inner Cleverly, Newham was a sh8thole but it was a well run sh8thole. Currently, and this is happening in almost all Councils, funding problems are putting huge pressure on Services and the result is a general sense of deterioration and breakdown.

In other authorities, the LDs and Greens might have been able to take advantage of local dissatisfaction but Mirza's Newham Independents have grabbed that role and are playing it strongly. As to whether they pose a coherent threat to Labour's domination of the Borough, I suspect they don't have the capacity to fight 22 Wards simultaenously. In July, they fought and won Boleyn but didn't even contest Wall End. It may be Mirza will concentrate on the more strongly Muslim Wards and leave the others - I do think he will stand (and there will be allied candidates) in East Ham, West Ham & Beckton and Stratford & Bow at the GE.

With the defection of a Plashet Councillor, Mirza is now Leader of the Opposition Group with three Councillors, the Greens have two and Labour has 61 so the role of opposition is likely to be more symbolic than actual but it'll be interesting to see if the Labour Group remains coherent and disciplined or whether other Muslim Labour Councillors will leave the Party.

The suspension of both the CLPs for the past two years won't have helped too, and it is probably one of the boroughs where the redevelopment rate is very high - not just Stratford now, it's spreading to the more settled residential areas like Forest Gate and Upton Park etc.
In a cost of living crisis, the Newham Councillors sitting in their nice Royal Docks office when East London gets more and more unaffordable, cabbies with older cabs get ULEZ fees whacked on, the Gaza issue, council incompetence (a lot of people have been affected as Stodge has mentioned - rubber-stamping of small scale planning applications without scrutiny during lockdown I'm told is a particular issue) all add up to a lot of discontent.

[greenchristian]

Nov 24, 2023 21:37:39 GMT stodge said:

I'm far from convinced Gaza had much impact in Plaistow North.

The majority of Muslims in Newham are from Bangladesh, Pakistan and sub-saharan Africa not the Middle East.

Not going to disagree with your other analysis, but Muslim feeling about Gaza has almost nothing to do with the ethnic origin of the Muslims in question.The overwhelming majority of Muslims on pro-Palestine demonstrations in the UK are ethnically Indian/Pakistani/Bangladeshi. For those Muslims who feel strongly about this issue, their connection with the Gazans is about being members of the Ummah/ And there is additional motivation for many from a conviction that the whole of the Holy Land belongs under Islamic control and from antisemitic passages in the Muslim holy texts (particularly the Hadith).

[minionofmidas]

I will just note the fall in the Green vote in Plaistow. Doubt it tactically went to Labour, doubt it was a Muslim vote in the first place. ie I'm unconvinced this election was all that particularly religiously polarized.

[timrollpickering]

The Greens nominated a candidate but did no work in the ward.

The Newham Independents campaigning heavily on Gaza and the Palestinian flag was seen widely.

[La Fontaine]

Nov 23, 2023 12:45:18 GMT The Bishop said:

Castle ward in Newcastle upon Tyne is another well known and long standing example.

Tedious history: first there was a medieval Castle Ward comprising large area of SE Northumberland, including City of Newcastle. Then various developments & changes with bits left over becoming the  Castle Ward Rural District in late 19th century. HQ in Ponteland, residence of many famous footballers. RD divided in 1974 between new Castle Morpeth District in Northumberland and four parishes being absorbed into Newcastle. Woolsington Parish became Castle Ward No.1 Ward and Brunswick, Dinnington & Hazlerigg comprised Castle Ward No.2 Ward. Boundary revision changed Castle Ward No.1 Ward to Woolsington Ward. Nobody came up with a suitable name for the other, expanded, ward,  so Castle Ward No.2 Ward became just Castle Ward. Castle Morpeth District was abolished in 2009. So the name of the former medieval ward survives only as one Newcastle City ward. No castle of course. I think this is correct though I may have left some bits out.

[mrtoad]

Some thoughts on Plaistow North - forgot to post this up at the time www.onlondon.co.uk/newham-plaistow-north-by-election-loss-confirms-headache-for-local-labour/