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Post by gramps191919 on Nov 24, 2023 0:40:32 GMT
A result for Newham would be useful, there is nothing on the Council site yet.
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Post by samdwebber on Nov 24, 2023 0:51:49 GMT
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 24, 2023 1:12:09 GMT
From Election Maps
Plaistow North (Newham) Council By-Election Result:
🙋 IND (Naqvi): 46.3% (New) 🌹 LAB: 27.4% (-39.1) 🙋 IND (Khan): 10.0% (New) 🌳 CON: 9.4% (-6.8) 🌍 GRN: 4.1% (-13.2) 🔶 LDM: 2.7% (New)
Independent GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2022.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 24, 2023 3:01:01 GMT
So tonight I read that an international legal group has sent out statements to President Biden, Prime Minister of Canada, members of the Dutch government and UK Prime Minister and Starmer and two members of his shadow cabinet saying they are considering seeking charges at the ICC for aiding and abetting War Crimes by the Israelis government in Gaza. Starmer is on the list for apparently supporting the turning off of water and electricity, holding back food and medicines to residents of Gaza. Whether one agrees with the actions or not of any group I am wondering how word of these allegations is going to affect the Labour candidates vote in North Plaistow? I am wondering this, especially in light of the Boleyn by-election result on July 13th this year. Labour lost 27% of their May vote and the Conservatives 15.6%, while the Green vote went up 3.5%. This suggests that the political splintering is crossing typical ideological lines. how can an opposition politician, no matter what you think of his or her views, from a non-combatant country be legally guilty of aiding and abetting war crimes? Or indeed governing personalities from non-combatant countries? Thoughtcrime
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Post by johnloony on Nov 24, 2023 3:02:19 GMT
The description of the ward in the preview thingy suggests that “Queen Ediths’” would be just as accurate as “Queen Edith’s”.
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weld
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Post by weld on Nov 24, 2023 7:29:33 GMT
From Election Maps Plaistow North (Newham) Council By-Election Result: 🙋 IND (Naqvi): 46.3% (New) 🌹 LAB: 27.4% (-39.1) 🙋 IND (Khan): 10.0% (New) 🌳 CON: 9.4% (-6.8) 🌍 GRN: 4.1% (-13.2) 🔶 LDM: 2.7% (New) Independent GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2022. 46% Muslim ward. Tells you everything you need to know.
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 24, 2023 7:36:34 GMT
Gaza may well be a factor in Plaistow North, but Labour also lost Boleyn ward to an Independent in July, and AIUI the winning candidate in that one endorsed Naqvi. So I don't think it's just about the Middle East.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 24, 2023 8:03:51 GMT
Cambridge percentages and changes since May
LD 35% (-2.9) Lab 31.8% (+8.1) Con 21.3% (+1.9) Green 11.8% (+1.6)
No Independent from May
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Post by matureleft on Nov 24, 2023 8:09:22 GMT
Cambridge percentages and changes since May LD 35% (-2.9) Lab 31.8% (+8.1) Con 21.3% (+1.9) Green 11.8% (+1.6) No Independent from May The hoo-ha over the congestion charge seems to have subsided with the watering down of the proposal?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 24, 2023 8:13:56 GMT
Cambridge percentages and changes since May LD 35% (-2.9) Lab 31.8% (+8.1) Con 21.3% (+1.9) Green 11.8% (+1.6) No Independent from May The hoo-ha over the congestion charge seems to have subsided with the watering down of the proposal? You’d think it probably is. Although the Tories getting a higher percentage in the BE than they did in May and a much higher percentage than they did in 2021 and 2022 may be a legacy of it?
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Post by matureleft on Nov 24, 2023 8:30:15 GMT
The hoo-ha over the congestion charge seems to have subsided with the watering down of the proposal? You’d think it probably is. Although the Tories getting a higher percentage in the BE than they did in May and a much higher percentage than they did in 2021 and 2022 may be a legacy of it? Well the Independent muddies the waters. And it's worth saying that this ward used to be a Tory stronghold and was one of the last to fall as the party shrank to municipal irrelevance. There must remain quite a bit of latent support here (mainly of the "pained" variety repelled by Johnson and Brexit) who have backed the Lib Dems in sometimes tight contests with Labour. But bearing in mind yesterday was one of those they did well to slightly increase their vote. Their candidate made some reference to the charge (in typically polite and guarded terms - this isn't the place for loud climate-change scepticism from any party!). www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/candidates-for-the-queen-edith-s-by-election-on-why-they-sho-9340580/
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 24, 2023 8:39:08 GMT
You’d think it probably is. Although the Tories getting a higher percentage in the BE than they did in May and a much higher percentage than they did in 2021 and 2022 may be a legacy of it? Well the Independent muddies the waters. And it's worth saying that this ward used to be a Tory stronghold and was one of the last to fall as the party shrank to municipal irrelevance. There must remain quite a bit of latent support here (mainly of the "pained" variety repelled by Johnson and Brexit) who have backed the Lib Dems in sometimes tight contests with Labour. But bearing in mind yesterday was one of those they did well to slightly increase their vote. Their candidate made some reference to the charge (in typically polite and guarded terms - this isn't the place for loud climate-change scepticism from any party!). www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/candidates-for-the-queen-edith-s-by-election-on-why-they-sho-9340580/Yes the Independent in May muddies the waters for comparisons to then but they got 11% in 2021 and 13% in 2022, so getting 21% now when they are doing so poorly in the polls compared to how they were doing in May 2021 and May 2022 does suggest that there is perhaps a bit of congestion charge effect. Perhaps it is an area where the latent support is a bit less repelled by Sunak and Hunt than Johnson, which would seem quite possible in this sort of area?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 24, 2023 9:11:23 GMT
Numbers updated following the contests this week.
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 23rd November , there have now been 100 ordinary by elections for 101 seats since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 25- Held 7 and lost 18: 5 to the Greens, 8 to the Lib Dem’s, 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 28%) and have gained 6
Labour have defended 39- Held 29 and lost 10: 3 to the Conservatives, 4 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 74%) and have gained 8
Lib Dem’s have defended 13: Held 11 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 85%) and have gained 13
Greens have defended 7: Held 4 and lost 3: 1 to the Conservatives, 1 to Labour and 1 to an Independent( retention rate 57%) and have gained 8
There have been elections for 6 seats previously held by Independents: 3 have been won by an another Independent , 1 each were lost to the Conservatives, the Lib Dem’s and the Greens. . And Independents have gained 7 Residents/ local groups have defended 5, held 4 and lost 1 to the Lib Dem’s SNP have defended 4 Lost 4, 1 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%) PC have defended 1, held 1 Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dem’s
Overall net changes
Con -12 Lab -2 LD +11 Green +5 Ind + 4 SNP -4 Res/ local groups -1 Vectis -1
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Post by robert1 on Nov 24, 2023 9:57:22 GMT
Mid Beds-Lab gain. Queen Edith's-Lab do better than expected. 2 one-offs don't make a trend but I ask the question.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 24, 2023 10:04:54 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +74 Con +0 Grn -8 Lab -45
What?! Cons not bottom of the week? In fact, they're second? Well, the budget must have been a rousing success then! Nah, not really. LibDems, winning here.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 24, 2023 10:52:39 GMT
Mid Beds-Lab gain. Queen Edith's-Lab do better than expected. 2 one-offs don't make a trend but I ask the question. What question?
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Post by johnloony on Nov 24, 2023 10:58:56 GMT
Mid Beds-Lab gain. Queen Edith's-Lab do better than expected. 2 one-offs don't make a trend but I ask the question. What question? I think what he means is that he doesn’t ask the (or any, or a) question.
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Post by robert1 on Nov 24, 2023 11:00:09 GMT
Is there a trend developing in areas which would previously have been regarded as natural LD targets which now seem to be moving more to Labour.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 24, 2023 11:01:11 GMT
Mid Beds-Lab gain. Queen Edith's-Lab do better than expected. 2 one-offs don't make a trend but I ask the question. No you don’t.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 24, 2023 11:04:20 GMT
Is there a trend developing in areas which would previously have been regarded as natural LD targets which now seem to be moving more to Labour. Ah right, as you will doubtless agree two data points do not in themselves make a definite trend As far as Queen Edith's is concerned, it may be as simple as Labour putting a bit more effort into the ward than would normally be the case.
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