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Post by greenchristian on Nov 12, 2023 17:14:28 GMT
I don't think that's how the six month rule works. Isn't it the case that vacancies that begin less than six months before the next set of locals are filled on the same day as the next local elections? Please explain. In addition to what's already been said, it is often the case that a vacancy that arises less than six months before regular local elections is deliberately left. Even when the specific vcancy isn't covered by the six month rule. Whilst it only takes two electors to call an election, the number of people who know this and aren't (or haven't been) politicians or electoral services staff is vanishingly small. So the decision on when to call the by-election is usually made by one or more of the political parties who plan to stand non-paper candidates for the by-election. |
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 12, 2023 17:22:50 GMT
So the decision on when to call the by-election is usually made by one or more of the political parties who plan to stand non-paper candidates for the by-election. Or parties planning on standing a wafer-thin paper candidate, but who are busy elsewhere and would quite like their opponents to have an annoying distraction in early Spring. Not that I've ever heard of such a case *innocent face*. |
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Post by carolus on Nov 12, 2023 17:24:45 GMT
I don't think that's how the six month rule works. Isn't it the case that vacancies that begin less than six months before the next set of locals are filled on the same day as the next local elections? Please explain. It's six months before the date that particular seat would normally be up for election (actually the date the councillor would retire, a few days after the election). So for a London borough that would be six months before May 2026. |
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 12, 2023 17:27:25 GMT
Isn't it the case that vacancies that begin less than six months before the next set of locals are filled on the same day as the next local elections? Please explain. It's six months before the date that particular seat would normally be up for election (actually the date the councillor would retire, a few days after the election). So for a London borough that would be six months before May 2026. I'm trying to remember where, perhaps it was Sheffield, where a few years back there was a local by-election about three weeks after the usual round of in-thirds elections. People were receiving postal ballots for the by-election right around polling day for the regular election. |
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Nov 12, 2023 18:46:00 GMT
It's six months before the date that particular seat would normally be up for election (actually the date the councillor would retire, a few days after the election). So for a London borough that would be six months before May 2026. I'm trying to remember where, perhaps it was Sheffield, where a few years back there was a local by-election about three weeks after the usual round of in-thirds elections. People were receiving postal ballots for the by-election right around polling day for the regular election. Many years ago there was a by-election in Hull just one week before the annual election to the authority. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 12, 2023 19:15:58 GMT
It's six months before the date that particular seat would normally be up for election (actually the date the councillor would retire, a few days after the election). So for a London borough that would be six months before May 2026. I'm trying to remember where, perhaps it was Sheffield, where a few years back there was a local by-election about three weeks after the usual round of in-thirds elections. People were receiving postal ballots for the by-election right around polling day for the regular election. It might have been 1999 when Francis Butler stood down as LibDem councillor a week or so after the LibDems took control in the May elections. I thought the by-election was the same date as that year's Euro elections in June, but checking it was in July, so Chapel-Green voters will have had three ballots in three months. |
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weld
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Post by weld on Nov 13, 2023 8:16:52 GMT
Thanks for all the replies. That makes sense. Labour may still want the Cazenove by-election on the day of the Mayoral race - applying the Hackney Mayoral by-election swing to the 2022 locals, the Lib Dems take Cazenove. It has a history of marginality, so is likely close either way, but the Mayoral turnout would help Labour, IMO.
It's funny how, even if you apply the Mayoral by-election swing to the 2022 locals, Labour likely loses eight seats, all in the Hackney North & Stoke Newington seat.
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Post by carolus on Nov 13, 2023 8:20:18 GMT
Thanks for all the replies. That makes sense. Labour may still want the Cazenove by-election on the day of the Mayoral race - applying the Hackney Mayoral by-election swing to the 2022 locals, the Lib Dems take Cazenove. It has a history of marginality, so will likely be close either way, but the Mayoral turnout would hep Labour, IMO. Labour may want that, but it is not within their gift. I should think the Lib Dems will trigger it soon to avoid exactly that coincidence. |
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weld
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Post by weld on Nov 13, 2023 8:22:19 GMT
Thanks for all the replies. That makes sense. Labour may still want the Cazenove by-election on the day of the Mayoral race - applying the Hackney Mayoral by-election swing to the 2022 locals, the Lib Dems take Cazenove. It has a history of marginality, so will likely be close either way, but the Mayoral turnout would hep Labour, IMO. Labour may want that, but it is not within their gift. I should think the Lib Dems will trigger it soon to avoid exactly that coincidence. Fair enough. This will potentially be a close finish. Go check out the history of the ward on andrewteale's site. |
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Post by batman on Nov 13, 2023 8:34:33 GMT
I've told my friend on Hackney Council I will be willing to canvass in the by-election when it occurs. Not perhaps surprisingly (as it has been such a long-term safe Labour borough), I have never before campaigned in the borough. I have campaigned in 21 of the 32 London boroughs, though in some cases only in parliamentary elections (Croydon & Greenwich come to mind).
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weld
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Post by weld on Nov 13, 2023 8:46:02 GMT
I've told my friend on Hackney Council I will be willing to canvass in the by-election when it occurs. Not perhaps surprisingly (as it has been such a long-term safe Labour borough), I have never before campaigned in the borough. I have campaigned in 21 of the 32 London boroughs, though in some cases only in parliamentary elections (Croydon & Greenwich come to mind). Enjoy. I think it'll be close so definitely worth people getting involved. It's an interesting ward because it flipped to Labour in 2018, when you might have thought they would struggle in such a highly Jewish patch because of the antisemitism row, but it seems a highly idiosyncratic area. Any insights would be warmly welcomed. |
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