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Post by elinorhelyn on Nov 11, 2023 23:58:16 GMT
Greens can do well in low turnout by elections but the Greens in London will always hit the ceiling if 'getting a significant number of ethnic minority votes' when it comes to doing well in Inner London
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,544
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Post by European Lefty on Nov 11, 2023 23:59:45 GMT
When I was first married, also around that age, 30 years ago, we also had housemates/lodgers. A young couple with a mortgage to pay and an asset that could generate an income, common sense. When we were first married, it worked the other way round- we rented the ground floor of small house, and the landlady occupied the first floor. I would have thought that was more normal, After two years we were buying our own 3 bed house ( how could we afford £3.2k?), and yes we were still only 24 at that point. How was a house that cheap!?
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,649
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 12, 2023 1:41:18 GMT
When I was first married, also around that age, 30 years ago, we also had housemates/lodgers. A young couple with a mortgage to pay and an asset that could generate an income, common sense. When we were first married, it worked the other way round- we rented the ground floor of small house, and the landlady occupied the first floor. I would have thought that was more normal, After two years we were buying our own 3 bed house ( how could we afford £3.2k?), and yes we were still only 24 at that point. Well, we'd rented for about three years before then (in Hong Kong), saving up a deposit, scraping everything together to get below the magic 90% loan to value threshold and (I think) 0.2 points off the interest rate. We got quite a good rate, we're 31 years into that 25-year mortgage, might get close to paying it off soon.
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Post by froome on Nov 12, 2023 6:39:14 GMT
Do you really think there are people who see the first two leaflets on their doormat and can't be bothered, but when the third leaflet arrives they are suddenly inspired to vote? You are assuming the first two leaflets have been seen by the people you are seeking to reach. Which may not be the case. If they haven't seen the first two, there is no more reason why they would see the third (or fourth or fifth).
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Post by iainbhx on Nov 12, 2023 7:12:20 GMT
When we were first married, it worked the other way round- we rented the ground floor of small house, and the landlady occupied the first floor. I would have thought that was more normal, After two years we were buying our own 3 bed house ( how could we afford £3.2k?), and yes we were still only 24 at that point. How was a house that cheap!? My parents 2 or 3-bed* house cost them £1.8k about 1968/9, I sold it in 2010 for 172k to help pay for care fees. It had one very large bedroom which in some houses of the same design could be configured as 2 bed rooms.
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weld
Non-Aligned
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Post by weld on Nov 12, 2023 8:11:12 GMT
When we were first married, it worked the other way round- we rented the ground floor of small house, and the landlady occupied the first floor. I would have thought that was more normal, After two years we were buying our own 3 bed house ( how could we afford £3.2k?), and yes we were still only 24 at that point. How was a house that cheap!? My grandad, who would later campaign for Vince Cable in City of York in the 80s, bought a house for £1,000 in 1958.
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 12, 2023 9:07:24 GMT
How was a house that cheap!? My grandad, who would later campaign for Vince Cable in City of York in the 80s, bought a house for £1,000 in 1958. When that first bought house was built 7 years earlier they were marketted by the builders ( Taylor Woodrow) at £1.7k, so nearly doubled in price in that time -runaway inflation we thought it. After 12 years use we sold it (1976) for £10k. By then the major disadvantage of the estate was apparent - TW had not expected the owners or 3-bed semis to be car owners- the roads were not wide enough for onstreet parking and while each semi had a space designated for a garage those spaces had to be accessed by a narrow shared drive. It was just about becoming a major problem when we moved out. Incidentally,in 1976 we had just about scraped together the £20k to buy our present property. Not sure what its worth now in its present condition but broadly similar properties on the same road go for well over £1m.
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 12, 2023 9:31:15 GMT
You need to factor in inflation to get a handle on property prices. Generally prices have increased by 12 times since the early 1970s. So a property that cost £10,000 in 1971 would if property prices followed general inflation be worth £120,000 today. In reality it would go for something close to £400,000 - £500,000 showing how out of hand property inflation has become. Unbelievable as it sounds my parents paid just £2500 for their 3 bedroom suburban house in 1954.
The flat I bought in 1987 sold recently for three times the amount it would have done if property prices had increased in line with general inflation. Admittedly this was London, where property inflation has been greatest. Before about 1975 there was no private housebuilding to speak of in inner London, as building costs were higher than the houses could be sold for. Almost all immediate post-war housing was therefore council built, thus explaining the Victorian terraces alongside council estates and not much else in places like Hackney. Of course much new housing has been built in the last 50 years almost all of it private.
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weld
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Post by weld on Nov 12, 2023 9:36:58 GMT
Hackney is the 12th most expensive place to buy property in London. Our landlady bought her council flat from Right to Buy and it’s probably worth about £300,000 in reality. The commodification of ex-council housing is quite something. I don’t care whether some folks here are beneficiaries of the policy, it fucked London housing for all time. Why would a council build new housing when it can be sold off for ridiculously generous discounts? Unless you’re virtually certain the council tenants can’t afford to buy. Hackney was, I suspect, a less unequal place before 1979.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 12, 2023 11:37:17 GMT
You need to factor in inflation to get a handle on property prices. Generally prices have increased by 12 times since the early 1970s. So a property that cost £10,000 in 1971 would if property prices followed general inflation be worth £120,000 today. In reality it would go for something close to £400,000 - £500,000 showing how out of hand property inflation has become. Unbelievable as it sounds my parents paid just £2500 for their 3 bedroom suburban house in 1954. The flat I bought in 1987 sold recently for three times the amount it would have done if property prices had increased in line with general inflation. Admittedly this was London, where property inflation has been greatest. Before about 1975 there was no private housebuilding to speak of in inner London, as building costs were higher than the houses could be sold for. Almost all immediate post-war housing was therefore council built, thus explaining the Victorian terraces alongside council estates and not much else in places like Hackney. Of course much new housing has been built in the last 50 years almost all of it private. FWIW, my parents' house was bought in 1973 for £34,000 and sold in 2023 for £1,200,000.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 12, 2023 12:46:53 GMT
You need to factor in inflation to get a handle on property prices. Generally prices have increased by 12 times since the early 1970s. So a property that cost £10,000 in 1971 would if property prices followed general inflation be worth £120,000 today. In reality it would go for something close to £400,000 - £500,000 showing how out of hand property inflation has become. Unbelievable as it sounds my parents paid just £2500 for their 3 bedroom suburban house in 1954. The flat I bought in 1987 sold recently for three times the amount it would have done if property prices had increased in line with general inflation. Admittedly this was London, where property inflation has been greatest. Before about 1975 there was no private housebuilding to speak of in inner London, as building costs were higher than the houses could be sold for. Almost all immediate post-war housing was therefore council built, thus explaining the Victorian terraces alongside council estates and not much else in places like Hackney. Of course much new housing has been built in the last 50 years almost all of it private. I think you may actually be under stating your case. As it happens my parents bought their house (where I grew up and where my mother still lives) in 1971 and paid £12k for it. It would be worth about a million now.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 12, 2023 12:49:26 GMT
You are assuming the first two leaflets have been seen by the people you are seeking to reach. Which may not be the case. If they haven't seen the first two, there is no more reason why they would see the third (or fourth or fifth). Actually, there is. Or television adverts would only appear once. (I think the ALC 'yellow book' used to say something like "the first one is picked up by the teenage daughter, the second by the husband who sticks it behind the mantelpiece clock, the third is read by the wife".) Or, to put it another way, if there's a 50% chance of any individual leaflet being seen/read then a second leaflet potentially ups that to 75%, a third 87.5%. Clearly this varies according to the structure of the household. And their literacy level.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 12, 2023 14:07:05 GMT
How was a house that cheap!? My grandad, who would later campaign for Vince Cable in City of York in the 80s, bought a house for £1,000 in 1958. My great-grandmother bought her house in Whitby in 1952 for £450. £150 down and a three-year mortgage.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 12, 2023 14:53:12 GMT
Once you go back beyond a certain point you have to be a little careful over how cheap houses appear to have been, as there was significant class-based discrimination when it came to being able to access the finance to pay for the purchase. We still live in a society in which class matters a great deal (even if it is increasingly complex), but we do not live in a Class Society in the sense that our grandparents (or, in the case of many posters here, parents) did, and it is important to be aware of the differences and distinctions.
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weld
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Post by weld on Nov 12, 2023 15:05:38 GMT
Presumably, Caroline Woodley resigns as a Councillor shortly, and any resulting by-election probably coincides with the 2024 Mayoral election because of the six month rule. It’d likely benefit Labour if the Cazenove by-election coincides with the 2024 elections because of higher turnout. The Lib Dems will obviously give it their all though since this is the their only winnable ward in Hackney for now. In 2022, the Lib Dems were 111 votes behind in the third seat.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 12, 2023 15:18:32 GMT
Presumably, Caroline Woodley resigns as a Councillor shortly She was automatically disqualified on election as Mayor. The timing is a bit difficult - either rush it through just before christmas or delay until the New Year and give other parties longer to campaign.
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Nov 12, 2023 15:48:44 GMT
Presumably, Caroline Woodley resigns as a Councillor shortly, and any resulting by-election probably coincides with the 2024 Mayoral election because of the six month rule. It’d likely benefit Labour if the Cazenove by-election coincides with the 2024 elections because of higher turnout. The Lib Dems will obviously give it their all though since this is the their only winnable ward in Hackney for now. In 2022, the Lib Dems were 111 votes behind in the third seat. I don't think that's how the six month rule works.
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weld
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Post by weld on Nov 12, 2023 16:34:04 GMT
Presumably, Caroline Woodley resigns as a Councillor shortly, and any resulting by-election probably coincides with the 2024 Mayoral election because of the six month rule. It’d likely benefit Labour if the Cazenove by-election coincides with the 2024 elections because of higher turnout. The Lib Dems will obviously give it their all though since this is the their only winnable ward in Hackney for now. In 2022, the Lib Dems were 111 votes behind in the third seat. I don't think that's how the six month rule works. Isn't it the case that vacancies that begin less than six months before the next set of locals are filled on the same day as the next local elections? Please explain.
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 12, 2023 16:46:26 GMT
I don't think that's how the six month rule works. Isn't it the case that vacancies that begin less than six months before the next set of locals are filled on the same day as the next local elections? Please explain. No. It just takes two electors in a ward to request the election to the returning officer and then the timetable begins. Only if that particular seat is up for election does the vacancy remain unfilled until the next scheduled election.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 12, 2023 16:58:43 GMT
I don't think that's how the six month rule works. Isn't it the case that vacancies that begin less than six months before the next set of locals are filled on the same day as the next local elections? Please explain. It would be if there were local elections in Hackney next year. There aren't.
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