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Post by greenman on Nov 10, 2023 15:25:31 GMT
Well I came close to being correct on the prediction site:
Labour 51%
Green 25%
Conservative 10%
TUSC 7%
LD 5%
Ind 2%
Why this swing in Hackney to Green, but an opposite swing in Lewisham?
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Post by kevinf on Nov 10, 2023 16:08:44 GMT
Labour 49.8% (-9.3) Green 24.5% (+7.5) Conservative 13.6% (+0.2) Lib Dem 5.1% (-2) Independent 3.7% TUSC 3.4% 8.4% swing from Labour to Green. We will now get a by-election in Cazenove ward (Labour - Lib Dem marginal). So the Conservative vote went up despite them reportedly not being featured on the free post leaflet? |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 10, 2023 16:11:32 GMT
Labour 49.8% (-9.3) Green 24.5% (+7.5) Conservative 13.6% (+0.2) Lib Dem 5.1% (-2) Independent 3.7% TUSC 3.4% 8.4% swing from Labour to Green. We will now get a by-election in Cazenove ward (Labour - Lib Dem marginal). So the Conservative vote went up despite them reportedly not being featured on the free post leaflet? above average Jewish turnout? |
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Post by greatkingrat on Nov 10, 2023 16:44:49 GMT
Labour 49.8% (-9.3) Green 24.5% (+7.5) Conservative 13.6% (+0.2) Lib Dem 5.1% (-2) Independent 3.7% TUSC 3.4% 8.4% swing from Labour to Green. We will now get a by-election in Cazenove ward (Labour - Lib Dem marginal). So the Conservative vote went up despite them reportedly not being featured on the free post leaflet? The Conservatives still lost over 3000 votes numerically, it's just that their turnout fell by less than Labour's percentage wise. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 10, 2023 16:49:24 GMT
Labour 49.8% (-9.3) Green 24.5% (+7.5) Conservative 13.6% (+0.2) Lib Dem 5.1% (-2) Independent 3.7% TUSC 3.4% 8.4% swing from Labour to Green. We will now get a by-election in Cazenove ward (Labour - Lib Dem marginal). I do believe we have to. This has happened elsewhere where councillors have become Mayor, their seat is automatically vacated and has to be filled by the usual means.
Anyway, still not really close despite a decline in the Labour vote. Did the Greens really think that they might sneak this?
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 10, 2023 16:54:40 GMT
Not that there would be even a one in a million chance of the Greens winning this on second prefs, but the law change deprives us of a set of interesting data. 😠
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 10, 2023 17:38:17 GMT
Did the Greens really think that they might sneak this? We knew we could get our numerical vote to hold up.
What was far less easy to predict was how far the Labour numerical vote was going to fall.
It went from 36k to 18k. If it had gone a few thousand further, and we'd managed to raise ours slightly, it'd have headed towards marginal territory.
So yes, we did think that sneaking it was a potential outcome, albeit an unlikely one.
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Post by greenman on Nov 10, 2023 17:46:15 GMT
Owainsutton, wWhy the 8.4% swing from Labour to Green?
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 10, 2023 18:02:20 GMT
Owainsutton, wWhy the 8.4% swing from Labour to Green? By us keeping our vote up, a combination of heavy campaigning and Labour losing voters. Look at the numerical changes of vote compared to 2022, showing where the drop in turnout came from: Labour: 36k to 18k Green: 10k to 9k Con: 8k to 5k
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2023 18:16:51 GMT
Owainsutton, wWhy the 8.4% swing from Labour to Green? By us keeping our vote up, a combination of heavy campaigning and Labour losing voters. Look at the numerical changes of vote compared to 2022, showing where the drop in turnout came from: Labour: 36k to 18k Green: 10k to 9k Con: 8k to 5k
Looking to 2026, the Greens could take the remaining seats in Dalston and Hackney Downs, and one in Clissold, IMO. The latter (on different boundaries) elected a Green in 2006. It’s a pity we don’t have a ward breakdown here. |
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2023 13:31:44 GMT
It wasn't necessary for us because my wife and I voted at 8 am and our flatmates didn't bother registering (although I did suggest that they should). You and your wife have flatmates!? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2023 14:40:06 GMT
It wasn't necessary for us because my wife and I voted at 8 am and our flatmates didn't bother registering (although I did suggest that they should). You and your wife have flatmates!? Welcome to renting in London in 2023. Hackney is quite popular (and expensive) these days. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Nov 11, 2023 14:46:29 GMT
It wasn't necessary for us because my wife and I voted at 8 am and our flatmates didn't bother registering (although I did suggest that they should). You and your wife have flatmates!? Have you seen the cost of renting in London?! |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 11, 2023 15:00:19 GMT
You and your wife have flatmates!? Welcome to renting in London in 2023. Hackney is quite popular (and expensive) these days. You and your wife have flatmates!? Have you seen the cost of renting in London?! It’s very unusual for me to hear about that with a married or even cohabiting couple but yes fair point on London, I’m quite a distance away from it here in Glasgow |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2023 15:18:45 GMT
Welcome to renting in London in 2023. Hackney is quite popular (and expensive) these days. Have you seen the cost of renting in London?! It’s very unusual for me to hear about that with a married or even cohabiting couple but yes fair point on London, I’m quite a distance away from it here in Glasgow I moved to my current flat because we needed a flat that would allow my wife to move in with a spousal visa. We are buying our own place now. One of the fun things about getting married at 25. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2023 17:01:06 GMT
We're not comparing like with like (SV for #1 and #3, FPTP for #2) but it shows how unusual these sorts of results are (and how few mayoral elections we've had):
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Post by batman on Nov 11, 2023 18:39:25 GMT
The circumstances of the election were not all that good for Labour & I think the general reaction is "we'll take that". It was a good performance by the Greens, but still nothing like competitive.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 11, 2023 18:45:17 GMT
Do you really think there are people who see the first two leaflets on their doormat and can't be bothered, but when the third leaflet arrives they are suddenly inspired to vote? You are assuming the first two leaflets have been seen by the people you are seeking to reach. Which may not be the case. |
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 11, 2023 18:58:18 GMT
It’s very unusual for me to hear about that with a married or even cohabiting couple but yes fair point on London, I’m quite a distance away from it here in Glasgow. I moved to my current flat because we needed a flat that would allow my wife to move in with a spousal visa. We are buying our own place now. One of the fun things about getting married at 25. When I was first married, also around that age, 30 years ago, we also had housemates/lodgers. A young couple with a mortgage to pay and an asset that could generate an income, common sense. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 11, 2023 22:43:12 GMT
I moved to my current flat because we needed a flat that would allow my wife to move in with a spousal visa. We are buying our own place now. One of the fun things about getting married at 25. When I was first married, also around that age, 30 years ago, we also had housemates/lodgers. A young couple with a mortgage to pay and an asset that could generate an income, common sense. When we were first married, it worked the other way round- we rented the ground floor of small house, and the landlady occupied the first floor. I would have thought that was more normal, After two years we were buying our own 3 bed house ( how could we afford £3.2k?), and yes we were still only 24 at that point. |
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