Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 21, 2023 21:38:34 GMT
To me it seems a very American thing to be looking at money raised in order to evaluate prospects and not something that is really relevant or to be encouraged here... I agree, but I think weld's point is that crowdfunding this much (which presumably is a large number of small donations) indicates substantial support. Although not necessarily from within Hackney... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2023 4:04:26 GMT
I agree, but I think weld's point is that crowdfunding this much (which presumably is a large number of small donations) indicates substantial support. Although not necessarily from with Hackney... I take your point, though as a resident of Hackney South & Shoreditch, I chipped in about £150. Fools and their money, eh?  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 22, 2023 9:12:11 GMT
I agree, but I think weld's point is that crowdfunding this much (which presumably is a large number of small donations) indicates substantial support. Although not necessarily from within Hackney... Just as with Driscoll's crowdfunder for the NE mayoralty, of course. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2023 9:26:50 GMT
I don't think they could divulge the origin of their donations due to GDPR? Anyway, I think the forum is being a bit too bullish about Labour here. I also note that Tory candidate Simche Steinberger has been around for years. I think he could increase the Tory share and carry Cazenove as well as Springfield and Stamford Hill West.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Oct 22, 2023 11:42:56 GMT
As this by-election fills the casual vacancy of someone elected by the SV system, will it be run on an SV basis? Or does FPTP operate immediately after the law change, whatever the circumstances?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2023 12:34:45 GMT
As this by-election fills the casual vacancy of someone elected by the SV system, will it be run on an SV basis? Or does FPTP operate immediately after the law change, whatever the circumstances? It's FPTP, which is why I think the Greens have a chance. Although this is a decent area for them because only 41% have a car. I also think Diane Abbott being suspended might lead to a low Black turnout, and also Hackney Labour's recent woes around Tom Dewey and Philip Glanville. Hackney is also trending Green, IMO, due to gentrification (parts of it, the parts where the Greens run strong, are genuinely up-and-coming with good links to the City). |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 22, 2023 12:39:06 GMT
I don't think they could divulge the origin of their donations due to GDPR? Anyway, I think the forum is being a bit too bullish about Labour here. I also note that Tory candidate Simche Steinberger has been around for years. I think he could increase the Tory share and carry Cazenove as well as Springfield and Stamford Hill West. depends on size of donation, if it's more than £500 it has to be declared. It's advisable not to donate that much on crowdfunder for that reason |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2023 12:40:35 GMT
I don't think they could divulge the origin of their donations due to GDPR? Anyway, I think the forum is being a bit too bullish about Labour here. I also note that Tory candidate Simche Steinberger has been around for years. I think he could increase the Tory share and carry Cazenove as well as Springfield and Stamford Hill West. depends on size of donation, if it's more than £500 it has to be declared. It's advisable not to donate that much on crowdfunder for that reason I should've donated £499 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2023 12:31:13 GMT
Just for fun: X (Twitter) followers;
Hackney Greens: 4,477
Hackney Labour: 4,412
Hackney Lib Dems: 1,963
Hackney Conservatives: 211
Peter Smorthit: 77
Hackney and Islington TUSC: 55
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2023 13:14:23 GMT
Out and about in Hackney today and saw a Labour poster in Stoke Newington and four TUSC posters in Victoria ward where I live. First sign of an election going on.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2023 9:36:22 GMT
Sadiq Khan was campaigning here recently. He also campaigned in Hackney in the 2022 locals:
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2023 7:26:04 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Nov 7, 2023 19:20:21 GMT
This one will count on Friday morning
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2023 15:45:40 GMT
My only vote while living in Hackney since I'm moving out on Sunday. This may also be the last mayoral race her - at least one candidate wants to axe the post.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 9, 2023 15:12:57 GMT
I’ve only just remembered / realised that this one is today. I can’t find the prediction thread, so my prediction is:
Lab 30,000
Green 13,000
Con 5,000
LD 4,000
TUSC 1000
Ind 500
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Post by johnloony on Nov 9, 2023 15:27:51 GMT
Why did they change the Conservative candidate?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2023 16:04:56 GMT
I’ve only just remembered / realised that this one is today. I can’t find the prediction thread, so my prediction is: Lab 30,000 Green 13,000 Con 5,000 LD 4,000 TUSC 1000 Ind 500 I'm slightly sceptical Labour could get that many votes, since this is a by-election. In 2016 they got 22,000 votes (almost 70%) with a turnout of <20%. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 9, 2023 16:06:33 GMT
I’ve only just remembered / realised that this one is today. I can’t find the prediction thread, so my prediction is: Lab 30,000 Green 13,000 Con 5,000 LD 4,000 TUSC 1000 Ind 500 Turnout looks a bit high |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2023 19:13:08 GMT
I got a 'Time Is Running Out' flyer from Labour. Might Labour genuinely be concerned about apathy here? The last mayoral by-election (and this is why I don't think Labour can poll 30,000 votes) got a sub-20% turnout.
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 9, 2023 19:35:48 GMT
I got a 'Time Is Running Out' flyer from Labour. Might Labour genuinely be concerned about apathy here? The last mayoral by-election (and this is why I don't think Labour can poll 30,000 votes) got a sub-20% turnout. nah that's pretty standard |
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