Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2023 13:46:05 GMT
Hackney mayoral by-election formally announced for November 9th 2023, nominations close on October 13th 2023 t.co/lCbCXCfVZKI believe that's the latest possible date they could hold the contest, since the greatest delay allowed was 35 working days after Mayor Glanville's resignation. That's pretty disappointing since it'll be a dark, possibly cold, possibly wet, possibly windy day. We only had 18% turnout in the 2016 mayoral by-election. I think we may fall below that because of the quagmire that the former Labour mayor now seems to find himself in. Who that benefits, I don't know. |
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skyep
Non-Aligned
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Post by skyep on Oct 9, 2023 20:21:06 GMT
the questions that come to my mind with this by-election is what effort might the greens make to squeeze tory voters in the north of the borough and to get labour switchers everywhere in order to go all out and win this, or whether they might concentrate on key wards to build on their 2022 vote and get more councillors off the back of that effort in 2026.
i assume the latter is more likely but i wonder if that might then be seen as a missed opportunity if they end up close after doing better than expected.
it might come down to a question of capacity of the local party. but i think that despite having adopted the 'target to win' strategy from the main parties, the greens are still a long way behind in gearing up for potentially winnable contests like this one, by getting the support in from neighbouring areas. this was evident in the de beauvoir by-election, with despite a deputy leader coming to help campaign, it still got very little attention and support from even neighbouring london boroughs.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2023 6:03:30 GMT
the questions that come to my mind with this by-election is what effort might the greens make to squeeze tory voters in the north of the borough and to get labour switchers everywhere in order to go all out and win this, or whether they might concentrate on key wards to build on their 2022 vote and get more councillors off the back of that effort in 2026. i assume the latter is more likely but i wonder if that might then be seen as a missed opportunity if they end up close after doing better than expected. it might come down to a question of capacity of the local party. but i think that despite having adopted the 'target to win' strategy from the main parties, the greens are still a long way behind in gearing up for potentially winnable contests like this one, by getting the support in from neighbouring areas. this was evident in the de beauvoir by-election, with despite a deputy leader coming to help campaign, it still got very little attention and support from even neighbouring london boroughs. As a resident of Hackney South & Shoreditch constituency, let me try to add something to this. The Greens have a decent crowdfunding effort here - they've raised £1500 of their £3k target: www.hackneygreens.org.uk/2023_mayor_byelection_crowdfunder. Still, they seem to be campaigning in wards they already have Councillors in like Dalston and Hackney Downs. I've not seen much activity in Stoke Newington ward which they lost 51-37 in 2022 - this is a must win for them if they want to take the mayoralty. The De Beauvoir swing was obviously large, but even if they replicate that across Hackney, Labour still wins the mayoral by-election by around 10%. To your point about the north of the borough, given that the Tories haven't selected a candidate yet, I don't see the Hasidic Jewish population turning out in big numbers in this contest. Thus, I think on a low turnout, Labour may carry Springfield and Stamford Hill West. I've never thought about Jewish support for the Greens. Yes, this is mostly about preparing for 2026 (when the Greens can likely profit from a Starmer 'mid-term') when the Greens have a realistic shot at c10 seats in Hackney. The other issue is what happens with Diane Abbott. If she's deselected, could that depress Black turnout in Hackney? We had an 18% turnout in the 2016 by-election borough-wide, so I'd expect something around that or lower. For the Greens to win, you probably need a low turnout, where their young professional supporters (generalising here) are over-represented in those turning out. If you are one of the 13% who voted for the Tories in the 2022 contest, who do you back? The Greens to mess with Labour? Labour because you don't like the Greens. The circumstances of this contest should help the Greens just like the context of the De Beauvoir contest. The other thing is the opposition to Labour was split in that by-election - the Women's Equality Party vote was equal to the Labour majority (27 votes), for example. This, it goes without saying, is a more high stakes election - the Greens have never had a mayoral victory in the era of directly-elected mayors, and after Bristol, this is their best opportunity to do that. In their worst result in the last 20 years, Labour got 40% in the 00s, so if they can be pared back to that (or less), the Greens may have a chance. I actually think the switch to FPTP from SV helps the Greens here (just as it helps Susan Hall in the London-wide contest) because I somehow struggle to see the Greens getting above 50%. I've not seen any polling. FYI there was a 6% swing to the Greens in 2022. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2023 12:03:27 GMT
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
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Post by ColinJ on Oct 13, 2023 17:46:14 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 13, 2023 17:48:36 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2023 18:06:50 GMT
Poll now added.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 13, 2023 18:36:50 GMT
The erstwhile Communist candidate Monty Goldman is not standing again, but Wikipedia says he is still alive at the age of 92.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 13, 2023 18:36:58 GMT
Valent is, or was, a full time offical of NAPO. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 13, 2023 18:38:59 GMT
The erstwhile Communist candidate Monty Goldman is not standing again, but Wikipedia says he is still alive at the age of 92. That reasonably rare bird a Communist accountant. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 13, 2023 18:40:06 GMT
The erstwhile Communist candidate Monty Goldman is not standing again, but Wikipedia says he is still alive at the age of 92. That reasonably rare bird a Communist accountant. Literally an oxymoron. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2023 9:23:15 GMT
Tory candidate Simche Steinberger has been a Councillor in Springfield since 2006. I think he could poll the most votes there, and in Cazenove and Stamford Hill West. If, as looks likely, Caroline Wooley wins, we'll probably get a by-election in Cazenove, where the Lib Dems had Councillors until 2018. That'd be interesting to watch.
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Post by batman on Oct 14, 2023 9:44:23 GMT
I have a friend who is a Labour councillor in Cazenove. I'd be very likely to help out in a by-election there. It would be the first time I've ever worked in an election in the borough.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2023 5:43:33 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 9:43:37 GMT
Apply the De Beauvoir by-election swing (16.9%), using the 2022 Hackney council result as a baseline for the next mayoral election, the Greens win. Then apply the 2016 by-election turnout (18.6%) sans some voter ID rejections: Green: 12.390 41.3% Labour: 11,370 37.9% Is this likely? Of course not. Is it possible? Yes. It's notable that 69% of participants in the poll think Labour win - Labour got 69% here in 2016. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
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Post by ColinJ on Oct 21, 2023 11:22:22 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 11:31:38 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 21, 2023 16:21:38 GMT
You’re unlikely to find out, whilst crowdfunding like isn’t unusual the bulk of fundraising will come from cheques/bank transfer donations etc and parties will use existing cash reserves to fund the campaign and will hope to replenish them during the campaign. What will be interesting is after the election to see how much each party/candidate spent. My gut says Labour will spend the most and declare upto the maximum others will struggle to match. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 21, 2023 19:35:26 GMT
To me it seems a very American thing to be looking at money raised in order to evaluate prospects and not something that is really relevant or to be encouraged here...
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Post by froome on Oct 21, 2023 19:50:20 GMT
To me it seems a very American thing to be looking at money raised in order to evaluate prospects and not something that is really relevant or to be encouraged here... I agree, but I think weld's point is that crowdfunding this much (which presumably is a large number of small donations) indicates substantial support. |
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