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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 22, 2023 15:23:13 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Mid-Bedfordshire by election. 19th October 2023
The 13 candidates as a reminder are:
Festus Akinbusoye (Con)
Sid Cordle (CPA)
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description)
Dave Holland (Reform UK)
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem)
Ann Kelly (OMRLP)
Gareth Mackey (Independent)
Chris Rooney (Mainstream)
Cade Sibley (Green)
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab)
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage)
Alan Victor (True and Fair)
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem)
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 13 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 7 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 7 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 19th October 2023.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,755 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 22, 2023 18:15:40 GMT
Good God, is Hissing Sid still around?
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Post by greenhert on Sept 22, 2023 18:48:26 GMT
My prediction is as follows:
Conservative 36
Labour 30
Liberal Democrats 13.7
Independent (Mackey) 11
Green 4
Reform UK 2
True & Fair 1.5
CPA 0.5
OMRLP 0.5
Heritage 0.3
English Democrats 0.3
Mainstream 0.1
Ankit Love 0.1
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 22, 2023 19:06:29 GMT
| Con | 32.9% | | Lab | 30.9% | | LD | 20.8% | | Ind | 6.3% | | Ref | 4.3% | | Grn | 2.9% | | MRLP | 0.4% | | TFP | 0.4% | | ED | 0.4% | | H | 0.3% | | CPA | 0.2% | | M | 0.1% | | ND | 0.1% |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 22, 2023 20:36:16 GMT
26.5 Festus Akinbusoye (Con)
00.4 Sid Cordle (CPA)
00.1 Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description)
03.2 Dave Holland (Reform UK)
18.1 Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem)
00.2 Ann Kelly (OMRLP)
08.1 Gareth Mackey (Independent)
00.1 Chris Rooney (Mainstream)
03.6 Cade Sibley (Green)
38.4 Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab)
00.3 Alberto George Thomas (Heritage)
00.2 Alan Victor (True and Fair)
00.8 Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem)
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 22, 2023 21:11:24 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Mid-Bedfordshire by election. 19th October 2023 The 13 candidates as a reminder are: Festus Akinbusoye (Con) Sid Cordle (CPA) Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) Dave Holland (Reform UK) Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) Ann Kelly (OMRLP) Gareth Mackey (Independent) Chris Rooney (Mainstream) Cade Sibley (Green) Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) Alan Victor (True and Fair) Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) Rules 1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 13 candidates, to 1 decimal place. 2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%. 3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully. 4. You will be penalised 7 points for each candidate missing from your prediction. 5. You will be penalised 7 points for predicting the wrong winner. 6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 19th October 2023. 8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election. Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 35.3 Sid Cordle (CPA) 1.1 Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.0 Dave Holland (Reform UK) 2.0 Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 15.0 Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.5 Gareth Mackey (Independent) 2.7 Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.2 Cade Sibley (Green) 4.5 Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 31.3 Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 3.5 Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.1 Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 3.8 |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 22, 2023 21:15:28 GMT
Good God, is Hissing Sid still around? No He’s tall and thin |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2023 1:44:19 GMT
CON 33%
LAB 32%
LD 24%
IND 5%
REF 3%
GRN 2%
OMRLP 0.4%
ND 0.1%
MAINSTREAM 0.1%
LOVE 0.1%
TRUE & FAIR 0.1%
HERITAGE 0.1%
ENG DEM 0.1%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 23, 2023 7:04:16 GMT
CON 33% LAB 32% LD 24% IND 5% LD 3% GRN 2% REF 0.4% OMRLP 0.1% MAINSTREAM 0.1% LOVE 0.1% TRUE & FAIR 0.1% HERITAGE 0.1% ENG DEM 0.1% You have 2 Lib Dems there... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2023 7:39:26 GMT
CON 33% LAB 32% LD 24% IND 5% LD 3% GRN 2% REF 0.4% OMRLP 0.1% MAINSTREAM 0.1% LOVE 0.1% TRUE & FAIR 0.1% HERITAGE 0.1% ENG DEM 0.1% You have 2 Lib Dems there... Corrected. Thanks for pointing that out. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 23, 2023 7:48:25 GMT
My prediction is as follows: Conservative 36 Labour 30 Liberal Democrats 13.7 Independent (Sankey) 11 Green 4 Reform UK 2 True & Fair 1.5 CPA 0.5 OMRLP 0.5 Heritage 0.3 English Democrats 0.3 Mainstream 0.1 Ankit Love 0.1
I have accepted this on the assumption that the Independent prediction is for Gareth Mackey, and that Sankey is a nickname I'm not familiar with.
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k9
Non-Aligned
Posts: 126
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Post by k9 on Sept 23, 2023 7:49:45 GMT
LD 32%
CON 29%
LAB 29%
IND 4%
GRN 3%
REF 2%
OMRLP 0.4%
ND 0.1%
MAINSTREAM 0.1%
LOVE 0.1%
TRUE & FAIR 0.1%
HERITAGE 0.1%
ENG DEM 0.1%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 23, 2023 8:00:37 GMT
LD 32% CON 29% LAB 29% IND 4% GRN 3% REF 2% OMRLP 0.4% ND 0.1% MAINSTREAM 0.1% LOVE 0.1% TRUE & FAIR 0.1% HERITAGE 0.1% ENG DEM 0.1%
You have the candidate Love (no description) down twice as Love and ND, and are missing Sid Cordle (CPA).
Please rectify if you wish prediction not to attract faults.
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k9
Non-Aligned
Posts: 126
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Post by k9 on Sept 23, 2023 8:38:30 GMT
LD 32% CON 29% LAB 29% IND 4% GRN 3% REF 2% OMRLP 0.4% CPA 0.1% MAINSTREAM 0.1% LOVE 0.1% TRUE & FAIR 0.1% HERITAGE 0.1% ENG DEM 0.1%
You have the candidate Love (no description) down twice as Love and ND, and are missing Sid Cordle (CPA).
Please rectify if you wish prediction not to attract faults.
Thank you! Amended. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 23, 2023 9:25:30 GMT
You have the candidate Love (no description) down twice as Love and ND, and are missing Sid Cordle (CPA).
Please rectify if you wish prediction not to attract faults.
Thank you! Amended. Amendment entered. |
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Post by greenhert on Sept 23, 2023 10:01:08 GMT
My prediction is as follows: Conservative 36 Labour 30 Liberal Democrats 13.7 Independent (Sankey) 11 Green 4 Reform UK 2 True & Fair 1.5 CPA 0.5 OMRLP 0.5 Heritage 0.3 English Democrats 0.3 Mainstream 0.1 Ankit Love 0.1
I have accepted this on the assumption that the Independent prediction is for Gareth Mackey, and that Sankey is a nickname I'm not familiar with.
Sorry, I did indeed mean Gareth Mackey. My post has been edited accordingly. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
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Post by nyx on Sept 23, 2023 12:13:20 GMT
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 26.0%
Alistair Luke Strathern (Labour) 25.4%
Festus Akinbusoye (Conservative) 22.8%
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 10.8%
Cade Sibley (Green) 6.2%
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 5.3%
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 1.7%
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.6%
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.5%
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.3%
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.2%
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1%
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1%
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 23, 2023 15:05:00 GMT
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 26.1% Alistair Luke Strathern (Labour) 25.4% Festus Akinbusoye (Conservative) 22.8% Gareth Mackey (Independent) 10.8% Cade Sibley (Green) 6.2% Dave Holland (Reform UK) 5.3% Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 1.7% Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.6% Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.5% Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.3% Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.2% Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1% Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1%
This adds up to 100.1, you may wish to adjust.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
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Post by nyx on Sept 23, 2023 15:45:17 GMT
This adds up to 100.1, you may wish to adjust.
So it does, thank you. Fixed. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 23, 2023 18:15:08 GMT
This adds up to 100.1, you may wish to adjust.
So it does, thank you. Fixed. Amendment entered |
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