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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 6:40:46 GMT
I'll either win the competition or come last.  All the right votes. Not necessarily in the right order 
True and Fair  |
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bigfatron
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,960
Member is Online
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 19, 2023 8:09:01 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 30.4%
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.2%
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1%
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 3.4%
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 29.6%
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.2%
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 5.6%
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1%
Cade Sibley (Green) 2.2%
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 27.9%
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.1%
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.1%
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.1%
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haribo
Forum Regular
Posts: 12
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Post by haribo on Oct 19, 2023 8:39:41 GMT
Lab 32.1
Con 26.4
Lib Dem 20.7
Mackey 11.4
Green 4.6
Reform UK 2.1
True and Fair 0.9
CPA 0.4
Heritage 0.4
Eng Dem 0.4
OMRLP 0.4
Mainstream 0.1
Emperor of India 0.1
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2023 15:10:00 GMT
Con 34.0%
Lab 28.2%
Lib Dem 27.6%
Reform UK 4.1
Green 2.5
Mackey 2.2
True and Fair 0.3
Heritage 0.3
Eng Dem 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
CPA 0.2
Mainstream 0.1
Emperor of India 0.1
Turnout: 45.9%
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 19, 2023 16:40:50 GMT
All 24 entries accepted. Competition open for enteries and revisions until 10pm tonight. I was tempted to amend my predictions to something closer to Haribo's after their stunning debut in the Rutherglen prediction competition, but will stick for now |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
Member is Online
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Post by nyx on Oct 19, 2023 16:42:35 GMT
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 26.0% Alistair Luke Strathern (Labour) 25.4% Festus Akinbusoye (Conservative) 22.8% Gareth Mackey (Independent) 10.8% Cade Sibley (Green) 6.2% Dave Holland (Reform UK) 5.3% Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 1.7% Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.6% Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.5% Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.3% Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.2% Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1% Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1% Going to update this prediction. New prediction: Alistair Luke Strathern (Labour) 32.4% Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 28.5% Festus Akinbusoye (Conservative) 26.1% Dave Holland (Reform UK) 4.3% Gareth Mackey (Independent) 3.8% Cade Sibley (Green) 3.2% Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.5% Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.3% Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.3% Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.2% Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.2% Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1% Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1% |
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 19, 2023 16:43:18 GMT
All 24 entries accepted. Competition open for enteries and revisions until 10pm tonight. I was tempted to amend my predictions to something closer to Haribo's after their stunning debut in the Rutherglen prediction competition, but will stick for now Haribo is indeed plural |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 19, 2023 16:46:58 GMT
does that mean 2 entries then? surely against the rules!
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 18:30:08 GMT
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 26.0% Alistair Luke Strathern (Labour) 25.4% Festus Akinbusoye (Conservative) 22.8% Gareth Mackey (Independent) 10.8% Cade Sibley (Green) 6.2% Dave Holland (Reform UK) 5.3% Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 1.7% Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.6% Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.5% Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.3% Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.2% Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1% Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1% Going to update this prediction. New prediction: Alistair Luke Strathern (Labour) 32.4%
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 28.5%
Festus Akinbusoye (Conservative) 26.1%
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 4.3%
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 3.8%
Cade Sibley (Green) 3.2%
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.5%
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.3%
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.3%
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.2%
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.2%
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1%
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1%
Updated prediction accepted, original discarded.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 18:30:36 GMT
Reminder competition closes at 10pm
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Post by woollyliberal on Oct 19, 2023 20:02:45 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 30.0%
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.1%
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1%
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 3.0%
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 30.2%
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.1%
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 2.9%
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1%
Cade Sibley (Green) 3.1%
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 30.1%
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.1%
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.1%
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.1%
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Post by froome on Oct 19, 2023 20:14:02 GMT
Going for the latest entry contest.  Labour 33.9 Conservative 27.4 Lib Dem 21.1 Mackey 7.4 Green 4.6 Reform 4.1 CPA 0.4 True & Fair 0.3 OMLRP 0.3 English Dem 0.2 Heritage 0.1 Mainstream 0.1 Emperor of India 0.1 |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 20:33:15 GMT
All 26 entries accepted.
Final Call Competition closes at 10pm tonight.
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Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
Posts: 247
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Post by Roger Harmer on Oct 19, 2023 20:42:34 GMT
Just to annoy froome!
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 28.8%
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.1%
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1%
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 3.5%
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 30.7%
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.1%
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 2.9%
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1%
Cade Sibley (Green) 3.6%
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 29.8%
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.1%
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.1%
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.1%
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Oct 19, 2023 20:54:49 GMT
And we know what Roger's track record is like for by election predictions
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 21:00:51 GMT
All 27 entries accepted.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 21:01:36 GMT
Competition Closed
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 19, 2023 21:10:43 GMT
And now that it has closed, I can make my entry (which is just going to be positions as I am useless with the vote share). Conservative HOLD, Labour second, Liberal Democrats third (in a classic three way marginal) with none of them broaching 30% of the vote. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 21:18:23 GMT
I have tried to keep all these predictions straight, 27 in all.
Prediction Ranges Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 25.20% by nn2019 to 36.00% by greenhert a range of 10.8
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.10% by 10 predictors to 1.10% by doktorb a range of 1
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.00% by doktorb & nn2019 to 0.20% by batman & LDCaerdydd a range of 0.2
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 1.70% by DHAA to 5.20% by nn2019 a range of 3.5
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 13.70% by greenhert to 32.50% by peterl a range of 18.8
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.10% by woolyliberal & Roger Harmer to 0.80% by jamesdoyle a range of 0.7
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 2.20% by Andrew_S to 11.40% by haribo a range of 9.2
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.10% by 21 predictors to 0.50% by nn2019 a range of 0.4
Cade Sibley (Green) 1.40% by sonofkrautrock to 4.60% by haribo & froome a range of 3.2
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 26.50% by peterl to 46.40% by johnloony a range of 19.9
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.10% by 10 predictors to 3.50% by doktorb a range of 3.4
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.00% by sonofkrautrock to 2.00% by YL a range of 2
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.10% by 6 predictors to 3.80% by doktorb a range of 3.7
Winner Predictions 1 out of 27 predicts a Liberal Democrat win over the Conservatives & Labour by 3.00% by k9
2 out of 27 predict a Liberal Democrat win over the Consevative ranging 2.30% by peterl to 3.00% by LDCaerdydd a range of 0.70%
4 out of 27 predict a Liberal Democrat win over the Labour ranging 0.10% by woolyliberal to 1.70% by jamesdoyle a range of 1.60% predicted by nn2019, jamesdoyle, woolyliberal, Roger Hamer
6 out of 27 predict a Labour win over the Conservatives ranging from 1.80% by Tony Otim to 19.90% by johnloony a range of 16.90% predicted by johnloony, Tony Otim, kevinf, jamesmanc22, haribo, froome
2 out of 27 predict a Labour win over the Liberal Democrats ranging from 0.30% by sonofkrautrock to 2.10% by nyx a range of 1.80%
11 out of 27 predict a Conservative win over Labour ranging from 0.10% by DHAA to 7.00% by ricmk a range of 6.90% predicted by greenhert, Pete Whitehead, doktorb, weld, ntyuk1707, ricmk, YL, batman, DHAA, manchesterman, Andrew_S
1 out of 27 predicts Consevative win over the Liberal Democrats by 0.80% by bigfatron
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Post by froome on Oct 19, 2023 21:33:09 GMT
Just to annoy froome! Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 28.8% Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.1% Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1% Dave Holland (Reform UK) 3.5% Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 30.7% Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.1% Gareth Mackey (Independent) 2.9% Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1% Cade Sibley (Green) 3.6% Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 29.8% Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.1% Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.1% Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.1% Damn! |
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