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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 19, 2023 21:53:39 GMT
And we know what Roger's track record is like for by election predictions Quick! Get down the bookies! |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 19, 2023 21:55:16 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 30.0%Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.1% Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1% Dave Holland (Reform UK) 3.0% Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 30.2%Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.1% Gareth Mackey (Independent) 2.9% Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1% Cade Sibley (Green) 3.1% Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 30.1%Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.1% Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.1% Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.1% If this happens, I think there will be some sort of record broken for highest number of recounts  |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Oct 19, 2023 22:00:41 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 30.0%Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.1% Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1% Dave Holland (Reform UK) 3.0% Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 30.2%Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.1% Gareth Mackey (Independent) 2.9% Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1% Cade Sibley (Green) 3.1% Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 30.1%Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.1% Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.1% Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.1% If this happens, I think there will be some sort of record broken for highest number of recounts and we all want to stay up until mid-day tomorrow! |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 19, 2023 22:09:28 GMT
I am too tired to stay up but this has the makings of a 'goodie'! Enjoy the small hours. I shall enjoy reading up from this point tomorrow. It is possible I shall be up before the declaration.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 20, 2023 11:12:24 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire By-Election Prediction Competition Result
The result was determind by who didn't get any penalties, moving up from 6th to 1st is Tony Otim , congratulations on winning. jamesmanc22 finished second with froome completing the podium.
Final Points Tony Otim 11.3
jamesmanc22 11.7
froome 12.9
weld 13.9
nyx 15.7 sonofkrautrock 16.1
ntyuk1707 17.9
Pete Whitehead 18.3
YL 18.3
kevinf 18.5
manchesterman 19.6
batman 20.7
Roger Hamer 20.7
haribo 21.7
bigfatron 22.9
woolyliberal 23.9
Andrew_S 24.5
jamesdoyle 26.9
peterl 27.1
k9 27.3
DHAA 27.5
LDCaerdydd 27.9
nn2019 31.5
ricmk 32.9
johnloony 29.9
doktorb 36.5
greenhert 37.5
Points before Penalties weld 6.9
jamesmanc22 10.7
ntyuk1707 10.9
Pete Whitehead 11.3
YL 11.3
Tony Otim 11.3
manchesterman 12.6
froome 12.9
batman 13.7
Roger Hamer 13.7 nyx 15.7
bigfatron 15.9
sonofkrautrock 16.1
woolyliberal 16.9
Andrew_S 17.5
kevinf 18.5
jamesdoyle 19.9
peterl 20.1
k9 20.3
DHAA 20.5
LDCaerdydd 20.9
haribo 21.7
nn2019 24.5
ricmk 25.9
doktorb 29.5
johnloony 29.9
greenhert 30.5
Percentages used were as posted on the Mid-Bedfordshire By-Election Thread, which added up with rounding to 100.1
Thanks to all who took part. DHAA
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Post by froome on Oct 20, 2023 11:17:20 GMT
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,580 
Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Oct 20, 2023 12:21:23 GMT
I didn’t enter the prediction comps, but last night my predictions were Lab to win Tamworth by 3-4000 and the Conservatives to hold Mid Bedfordshire by 1-2000.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
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Post by nyx on Oct 20, 2023 13:14:21 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire By-Election Prediction Competition Result
The result was determind by who didn't get any penalties, moving up from 6th to 1st is Tony Otim , congratulations on winning. jamesmanc22 finished second with froome completing the podium. Final Points
nyx 34.1
Not that it matters much but I believe you may have used my discarded former prediction from before I had updated it yesterday? When I tried to calculate my score for the updated one, I got 15.7. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 20, 2023 13:40:07 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire By-Election Prediction Competition Result
The result was determind by who didn't get any penalties, moving up from 6th to 1st is Tony Otim , congratulations on winning. jamesmanc22 finished second with froome completing the podium. Final Points
nyx 34.1
Not that it matters much but I believe you may have used my discarded former prediction from before I had updated it yesterday? When I tried to calculate my score for the updated one, I got 15.7.
You are indeed correct, I used the old prediction thinking it was the new one, brainfart moment.
Results post corrected.
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 14:42:25 GMT
Not surprisingly, I am absolutely chuffed to monkeys that I got this prediction wrong. But it was a genuine prediction, not some sort of stupid expectation management.
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Post by greenhert on Oct 20, 2023 17:27:09 GMT
My biggest mistake was overestimating the Independent vote and thinking it would hurt the Liberal Democrat vote, as would a squeeze by Labour.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 20, 2023 18:22:44 GMT
My biggest mistake was overestimating the Independent vote and thinking it would hurt the Liberal Democrat vote, as would a squeeze by Labour.
I think with a shorter campaign they may well have done better, I initially thought higher than I predicted and I still went too high,
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 20:26:27 GMT
Congrats to Tony Otim for an impressive double! Also kudos to froome for 2 third-place finishes! Tremendous consistency! |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 21, 2023 7:32:39 GMT
I'm not going to do these predictions any more 😂
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 21, 2023 7:42:21 GMT
I'm not going to do these predictions any more 😂
That's fine, you don't have to, .........................................................................until the next time.  |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 21, 2023 10:48:33 GMT
I'm not going to do these predictions any more 😂
That's fine, you don't have to, .........................................................................until the next time. This is how scratchcards get you! See you for Wellingborough. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 22, 2023 11:52:55 GMT
I have decided to change the rules of the competition: your prediction is only valid if you predicted a bigger %age of the share of the vote for the winning candidate. Here are our predictions, compared with the actual result:  |
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