YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Oct 7, 2023 19:59:29 GMT
Con 33.0
CPA 0.6
Emperor of India 0.1
Reform UK 2.2
Lib Dem 20.6
OMRLP 0.4
Mackey 4.8
Mainstream 0.3
Green 2.1
Lab 32.6
Heritage 0.7
True and Fair 2.0
Eng Dem 0.6
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,878 
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 8, 2023 15:20:31 GMT
As a casual aside may I remind members of the Labour candidate for the constituency at the 1959 GE which was the first that engaged my full attention. That was the late and much loved and regarded, Bryan Magee (1930-2019), who was the candidate again for the by-election in 1960. Later he became the Labour MP for Leyton (Feb 1974- 1983), the last year of which being served as an SDP member having fallen out of step with the Labour of Michael Foot.
Magee was a delightful man, met but once briefly, but with whom I corresponded from time to time on philosophy and whom I regarded as my mentor on the subject. He led a life that I regard to be a model for my own re-run of life! History and philosophy : politics and public affairs : poet, critic, commentator, biographer and novelist : intellectual, philosopher, academic and broadcaster/writer on philosophy and politcs : with rich cultural life largely bases in London.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 8, 2023 18:35:08 GMT
As a casual aside may I remind members of the Labour candidate for the constituency at the 1959 GE which was the first that engaged my full attention. That was the late and much loved and regarded, Bryan Magee (1930-2019), who was the candidate again for the by-election in 1960. Later he became the Labour MP for Leyton (Feb 1974- 1983), the last year of which being served as an SDP member having fallen out of step with the Labour of Michael Foot. Magee was a delightful man, met but once briefly, but with whom I corresponded from time to time on philosophy and whom I regarded as my mentor on the subject. He led a life that I regard to be a model for my own re-run of life! History and philosophy : politics and public affairs : poet, critic, commentator, biographer and novelist : intellectual, philosopher, academic and broadcaster/writer on philosophy and politcs : with rich cultural life largely bases in London. The Archive on 4 programme on Radio 4 featured him as its subject a couple of weeks ago :
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Post by greenhert on Oct 8, 2023 20:18:37 GMT
Who knows but let's put something on the table: Conservative 34% Labour 27% Lib Dem 24% Ind (Mackay) 7% Green 4% Reform 2.8% Loony 0.4% Eng Dem 0.3% Mainstream/Love/True and Fair/Heritage/CPA 0.1% each Mackey not Mackay for the record. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 8, 2023 20:24:28 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 25.2 Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.2 Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.0 Dave Holland (Reform UK) 5.2 Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 28.4 Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.7 Gareth Mackey (Independent) 5.5 Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.5 Cade Sibley (Green) 4.2 Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 27.9 Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 1.1 Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.9 Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.2 Interestingly your winning prediction is 0.9% higher than the record lowest winning vote share in a parliamentary by-election-Joseph Pointer gained Sheffield Attercliffe for Labour in a 1909 by-election with just 27.5% of the vote; the bottom-placed candidate polled 21.7%. There were immediate calls for proportional representation that were never followed through except for university constituencies-although it did remind me of why the Republic of Ireland is fond of STV, since it played a part in preventing the Irish Labour Party ever becoming a leading party. |
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Post by kevinf on Oct 15, 2023 19:48:35 GMT
Lab 30
Con 27
LibDem 25
Ind Mackey 10
Green 3.5
Reform 3
EngDem 0.5
True Fair 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Heritage 0.2
CPA 0.2
Mainstream 0.1
A kit India 0.1
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Post by batman on Oct 17, 2023 8:48:54 GMT
C 29.6
Lab 29.1
LD 25.7
Ind Mackey 4.9
RefUK 4.2
Green 3.7
True & Fair 0.9
Eng Dem 0.7
Mainstream 0.3
Heritage 0.3
CPA 0.2
OMRLP 0.2
Emp of India 0.2
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 17, 2023 11:08:36 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 28.6
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.1
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 1.7
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 28.4
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.6
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 8.9
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1
Cade Sibley (Green) 2.2
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 28.5
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.3
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.1
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.4
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Post by batman on Oct 17, 2023 11:24:35 GMT
bold prediction from you there DHAA. Lawks knows how long the recounts would take if you turned out to be right
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 17, 2023 12:44:56 GMT
bold prediction from you there DHAA. Lawks knows how long the recounts would take if you turned out to be right I'll either win the competition or come last.  |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 17, 2023 13:18:41 GMT
bold prediction from you there DHAA. Lawks knows how long the recounts would take if you turned out to be right I'll either win the competition or come last.  |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 18, 2023 10:26:17 GMT
Lab 33.2
Con 31.4
LD 20.4
Mackey 6.7
Grn 3.9
RefUK 2.1
CPA 0.9
True and Fair 0.6
OMRLP 0.2
Heritage 0.2
ED 0.2
Love 0.1
Mainstream 0.1
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Post by johnloony on Oct 18, 2023 12:35:03 GMT
So far (out of 16 predikshunz):
9 predict Con win
3 predict Lab win
4 predict LD win
5 predict Con 2nd
11 predict Lab 2nd
0 predict LD 2nd
2 predict Con 3rd
2 predict Lab 3rd
12 predict LD 3rd
11 predict Con > Lab
5 predict Lab > Con
12 predict Con > LD
4 predict LD > Con
12 predict Lab > LD
4 predict LD > Lab
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 18, 2023 14:18:48 GMT
Con 26.9
CPA 0.1
Eng Dem 0.2
Green 3.2
Heritage 0.3
Ind (Mackey) 5.0
Lab 29.2
LDm 30.9
Mainstream 0.1
ND (Love) 0.1
OMRLP 0.8
Reform UK 3.0
True & Fair 0.2
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 18, 2023 16:15:48 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 28.1
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.1
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.2
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 3.9
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 31.1
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.6
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 6
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1
Cade Sibley (Green) 2.5
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 27
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.1
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.1
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.2
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Post by jamesmanc22 on Oct 18, 2023 20:07:51 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 30.4%
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.4%
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.2%
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 2.3%
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 26.7%
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.4%
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 3.6%
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.3%
Cade Sibley (Green) 2.7%
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 32.5%
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.5%
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.6
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.4%
Labour Gain from conservative
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Oct 18, 2023 21:41:37 GMT
Con 28.4
CPA 0.1
Eng Dem 0.6
Green 1.4
Heritage 0.1
Ind (Mackey) 5.5
Lab 30.1
LDm 29.8
Mainstream 0.1
ND (Love) 0.1
OMRLP 0.2
Reform UK 3.6
True & Fair 0.0
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 18, 2023 23:17:00 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 32.5
Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.2
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.1
Dave Holland (Reform UK) 3.9
Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 21
Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.3
Gareth Mackey (Independent) 6.6
Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.1
Cade Sibley (Green) 3.9
Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 30.5
Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.2
Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.4
Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.3
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2023 5:37:22 GMT
bold prediction from you there DHAA. Lawks knows how long the recounts would take if you turned out to be right I'll either win the competition or come last. All the right votes. Not necessarily in the right order |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Oct 19, 2023 6:30:03 GMT
Festus Akinbusoye (Con) 30.4% Sid Cordle (CPA) 0.4% Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) 0.2% Dave Holland (Reform UK) 2.3% Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 26.7% Ann Kelly (OMRLP) 0.4% Gareth Mackey (Independent) 3.6% Chris Rooney (Mainstream) 0.3% Cade Sibley (Green) 2.7% Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) 32.5% Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) 0.5% Alan Victor (True and Fair) 0.6 Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) 0.4% Labour Gain from conservative
This prediction adds up to 101, so will incur penalties, you may wish to adjust.
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