2023 Polish General Election

[eastmidlandsright]

Oct 16, 2023 19:00:44 GMT matureleft said:

The President, who is a former PiS parliamentarian, has the power to veto legislation subject to a three fifths majority override. His term runs until 2025. So this is going to be a period where some deft work in a polarised environment will be required.

And if the new government proves unpopular Duda, or another Law and Justice candidate, could easily win the 2025 election.

[WJ]

It's going to be interesting to see the effects of a new government on regional dynamics, particularly in the Visegrád Group and how they interact with the EU at large. Hungary will find itself more isolated and forced to buddy up with the Slovaks (who obviously have far less power than the Poles and with whom they have a far more fractious relationship with generally).

[mrpastelito]

Oct 16, 2023 17:51:12 GMT uthacalthing said:

Given that the EU is run by moderate reasonable and serious people, there must be electoral events where a government or potential government that they regarded as worryingly left-wing is elected or defeated, and this must I assume cause expressions of satisfaction or pleasure.

To balance out the occasions when a regrettably right-wing option is elected, or not elected

can anyone offer an example of when moderate reasonable and serious people regarded being too left-wing as a reason for interest or concern?

A bold assumption.

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 16, 2023 19:23:59 GMT WJ said:

It's going to be interesting to see the effects of a new government on regional dynamics, particularly in the Visegrád Group and how they interact with the EU at large. Hungary will find itself more isolated and forced to buddy up with the Slovaks (who obviously have far less power than the Poles and with whom they have a far more fractious relationship with generally).

Well, given Orban's "Greater Hungary" spiel when Slovakia has a large Hungarian-speaking minority, they aren't likely to be the most trusting of allies.

[johng]

The final results are very slowly trickling in with 99.89% now reported. What's left is mainly in Warsaw or abroad (results sent before the deadline, but not yet confirmed). The final 0.11% should be KO friendly meaning they've held PiS to less than a 5% margin.
On the whole, the IPSOS exit poll was very accurate.

PiS - 35.43%
KO - 30.66%
Third Way - 14.41%
Left - 8.60%
Confederation - 7.16%

The projected final seats have the three opposition parties on 249/460.
PiS - 196
KO - 158
Third Way - 61
Left - 30
Confederation - 15


Final Result for the (weak) Senate are in. The senate has 100 seats and uses FPTP. The opposition sensibly ran a single candidate in each district under Senate Pact and this has proved successful as they now have a comfortable margin there. Though there are multiple seats where a third party candidate(s) ran which likely affected the overall winner.
Senate Pact (KO, Poland 2050, PSL, Left, and several independents) - 66
PiS - 34

[johng]

100% in now according to the electoral commission (changes on 2019).

PiS - 35.38% (-8.21)
KO - 30.70% (+3.30)
Third Way - 14.40% (New (+5.85 on KP))
Left - 8.61% (-3.97)
Confederation - 7.16% (+0.35)

Tusk almost certain to lead the next government - but that's probably a while away.

[rcronald]

Oct 17, 2023 7:37:10 GMT johng said:

100% in now according to the electoral commission (changes on 2019).

PiS - 35.38% (-8.21)
KO - 30.70% (+3.30)
Third Way - 14.40% (New (+5.85 on KP))
Left - 8.61% (-3.97)
Confederation - 7.16% (+0.35)

Tusk almost certain to lead the next government - but that's probably a while away.

looks like Third way essentially won the election for the opposition.

[manchesterman]

[manchesterman]

Oct 16, 2023 18:04:20 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

God this forum is pathetic, it can't even discuss an important election without drifting off on the most absurd tangents.

Now that the results are pretty clear it raises the question of just what kind of government Tusk might be able to form. The opposition parties are united in pretty much nothing except their opposition to Law and Justice and putting together a vaguely coherent government is going to be a difficult task.

tabloid-esque headline:

Tough Tusk task risk

Try saying quickly 3 times

[johng]

Oct 17, 2023 7:37:10 GMT johng said:

100% in now according to the electoral commission (changes on 2019).

PiS - 35.38% (-8.21)
KO - 30.70% (+3.30)
Third Way - 14.40% (New (+5.85 on KP))
Left - 8.61% (-3.97)
Confederation - 7.16% (+0.35)

Seat distribution

PiS - 194 (-41)
KO - 157 (+23)
Third Way - 65 (New (+35 on KP))
Left - 26 (-23)
Confederation - 18 (+7)

Likely government will have 248 seats as the IPSOS exit poll predicted.

New government unlikely to be formed for a while as there are a lot of things to negotiate. Duda also has first choice and will likely pick PiS to try to have the first go at forming a government.

[rcronald]

Oct 16, 2023 18:04:20 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

God this forum is pathetic, it can't even discuss an important election without drifting off on the most absurd tangents.

Now that the results are pretty clear it raises the question of just what kind of government Tusk might be able to form. The opposition parties are united in pretty much nothing except their opposition to Law and Justice and putting together a vaguely coherent government is going to be a difficult task.

I don’t expect it to be that hard if Lewica understands that voters want nothing to do with any of their agenda.

[cogload]

The question is whether a government machinery subverted by PiS to it's own ends will allow a peaceful transfer of power?

[eastmidlandsright]

Oct 17, 2023 11:03:42 GMT cogload said:

The question is whether a government machinery subverted by PiS to it's own ends will allow a peaceful transfer of power?

If we go what is being said online there seems little indication that there will be any attempt to prevent the opposition forming a government, which most seem to recognise would be counter productive Instead the plan seems to be for Duda and the courts to prevent the new government from being able to achieve anything of great significance. 

[johng]

Oct 17, 2023 11:28:37 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

Oct 17, 2023 11:03:42 GMT cogload said:

The question is whether a government machinery subverted by PiS to it's own ends will allow a peaceful transfer of power?

If we go what is being said online there seems little indication that there will be any attempt to prevent the opposition forming a government, which most seem to recognise would be counter productive Instead the plan seems to be for Duda and the courts to prevent the new government from being able to achieve anything of great significance. 

PiS are already making noises about going into coalition. Their favoured choice at the moments looks like PSL (one half of Third Way). However, their leader and multiple other senior members have already said they wouldn't go into coalition with PiS. They've also previously been in coalition with Tusk. Poland 2050 was founded as a PiS opponent. The left obviously aren't going to either. Tusk is desperate for the reigns of power and is likely to be willing to offer a lot if really needed. PiS don't really seem to have a path.

Duda will likely pick them to form the government though which will likely take up to the next six weeks or so. Though he might not if it's clear the opposition have formed a stable coalition.

Then there's the question of what PiS can do to stop the opposition when they get into government.

A lot of things, like appointments to various tribunals, boards, commissions and public companies is largely out of the reach of Duda and the courts and in the hands of the Council of Ministers and Sejm. That will have a significant impact. In fact, I imagine the first year of the government will have relatively little legislation and a lot more policy and tone adjustment. I also expect Tusk to go after his opponents with a vengeance.

Duda has hardly been a PiS apparatchik also. He has vetoed a number of their most egregious bills including on media censorship, the judiciary and giving the government greater direct control over schools. He's term limited in 2025 so will want to maintain some legacy.

[iain]

Oct 17, 2023 13:25:27 GMT johng said:

Oct 17, 2023 11:28:37 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

If we go what is being said online there seems little indication that there will be any attempt to prevent the opposition forming a government, which most seem to recognise would be counter productive Instead the plan seems to be for Duda and the courts to prevent the new government from being able to achieve anything of great significance. 

PiS are already making noises about going into coalition. Their favoured choice at the moments looks like PSL (one half of Third Way). However, their leader and multiple other senior members have already said they wouldn't go into coalition with PiS.

And they don't have the numbers anyway - they'd need agreements with both PSL and Konfederacja.

[maxque]

Oct 17, 2023 10:01:32 GMT rcronald said:

Oct 16, 2023 18:04:20 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

God this forum is pathetic, it can't even discuss an important election without drifting off on the most absurd tangents.

Now that the results are pretty clear it raises the question of just what kind of government Tusk might be able to form. The opposition parties are united in pretty much nothing except their opposition to Law and Justice and putting together a vaguely coherent government is going to be a difficult task.

I don’t expect it to be that hard if Lewica understands that voters want nothing to do with any of their agenda.

I think it's pretty clear from the Senate Pact that things might already be tied up or close to it.

[Georg Ebner]

To remember, that the exitPoll of OSB was in % better than the one of IPSOS:

[johng]

Oct 17, 2023 14:08:58 GMT iain said:

Oct 17, 2023 13:25:27 GMT johng said:

PiS are already making noises about going into coalition. Their favoured choice at the moments looks like PSL (one half of Third Way). However, their leader and multiple other senior members have already said they wouldn't go into coalition with PiS.

And they don't have the numbers anyway - they'd need agreements with both PSL and Konfederacja.

Yes, the two of them.

[johng]

It seems Duda is highly likely to ask PiS to form the next government despite them having no chance of winning a confidence vote in the Sejm.

He has to recall parliament within 30 days of the election. Once recalled, his nominated candidate has 14 days to win a confidence vote. Only after that does the Sejm get to nominate its own government.

Wonder how soon we'll seen a wave of rats jumping off the sinking ship PiS.

“I say this as an accomplice: we created propaganda at a worse level than in the 1970s,” said Wolski at a post-election event organised on Monday by Klub Ronina (the Ronin Club), a leading right-wing discussion forum that meets weekly in Warsaw.

“This nation has simply been humiliated, the propaganda that has been pouring out over the last few months,” he added. Wolski stated that he had been suspended from appearing on TVP six months ago because he “didn’t fit that hard attack line”.

Wolski also argued that such “propaganda aimed at the core electorate” of the ruling party was “a waste of time and money” because those people would vote for PiS anyway. But at TVP, “the Stalinist logic won: whoever is not with us is against us”

In their preliminary report on Sunday’s elections, international observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) noted that during the campaign TVP “deliberately distort[ed] events through the promotion of the ruling party… while heavily attacking its main political rival”.

The OSCE found that 80% of TVP’s coverage of the main opposition group was negative in tone while coverage of PiS and the government “was almost entirely positive and often framed to amplify the party’s campaign messages”.

[johng]

Updates from Notes from Poland.