johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849 
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Post by johng on Oct 15, 2023 14:13:04 GMT
There was a great article in the FT the other day setting out just how much of this polarisation is down to Tusk and Kaczynski being completely bitter and obsessed with each other. Kaczynski came off as a nutter but Tusk has a strong whiff of I Am The Man of Destiny about him.
The three men (including the late Lech Kaczynski) have really been the dominant personalities in Polish politics since the mid noughties. Kaczynski is incredibly polarizing, but has the sense not to run as PM (or presidential) candidate. That would likely hand the opposition the win. Tusk was yesterday's man who went to Brussels for prestige and cash and is now back. I genuinely believe he thinks he is Poland's savior. Not sure whether the electorate think the same.
At each election, divisive issues like immigration (even Tusk has heavily focussed on this area this time around) and the EU seem to become more and more prominent and the two are at polar ends on the latter issue.
Turnout looks like it is up quite a bit on 2019 and 2015. The greatest increase in turnout compared to 2019 is in urban areas and in the west. That suggests, along with record overseas registration, (and it's a very early reading on the tea leaves) that the opposition is doing better getting its voters to turn out.
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Post by robert1 on Oct 15, 2023 17:32:02 GMT
Friend of mine queued this afternoon for over one and quarter hours to vote at the Embassy. First time he has voted since he came to this country 20 years ago.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Oct 15, 2023 17:33:27 GMT
There's just over ninety minutes left until polls close.
The 5pm (Polish time) turnout figure is an impressive 57.54%, and we'll certainly see a record modern turnout (vs 62.7% in 1989 and 61.7% last time in 2019). It wasn't too long ago when turnout struggled to get far into the 40s so clearly the population and riled and engaged.
On turnout variation, on the whole, there are still bigger increases in the west versus the east (favouring the opposition), however, the turnout increase in cities versus rural areas now slightly favours rural areas (favouring PiS). This is still totally far too early tea leaf stuff as I said after the twelve o'clock figures came out.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2023 18:00:22 GMT
Saw a poster for this election in Derbyshire a week ago. Was it in Edale? There's a house there that has posters for foreign elections quite often. One for Lula last time. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 15, 2023 18:21:09 GMT
Saw a poster for this election in Derbyshire a week ago. Was it in Edale? There's a house there that has posters for foreign elections quite often. One for Lula last time. Just outside Derby. Very professional looking poster. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2023 19:06:44 GMT
First exit poll.
PiS 36.8
Civic Platform 31.6
Third Way 13
Lewica 8.6
Konfederacja 6.2
Squeaky-bum czas.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2023 19:09:29 GMT
I wonder if TD would prefer a coalition with KO+L or PiS in the unlikely case that Confederation doesn’t cross the threshold. (They would obviously prefer KO+L if Con cross the threshold) This seems very relevant if the exit polls are right. (But it should be noted that the exit polls underestimated the right in the last presidential,legislative and European elections) |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2023 19:19:33 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 15, 2023 19:22:02 GMT
Interesting exit poll, but remember: the only country where you can be absolutely sure that the exit poll = the result is France.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2023 19:22:16 GMT
Well, Tusk has declared victory. Seems a bit premature.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2023 19:22:58 GMT
Well, Tusk has declared victory. Seems a bit premature. Tusk doing Tusk things. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2023 19:23:47 GMT
Interesting exit poll, but remember: the only country where you can be absolutely sure that the exit poll = the result is France. And Russia! |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2023 19:24:31 GMT
Interesting exit poll, but remember: the only country where you can be absolutely sure that the exit poll = the result is France. And Russia! Well, they already know the results in Russia ahead of time! 😁 |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2023 19:25:12 GMT
ExitPoll by IPSOS for the 3 main TeleVision-channels predicts a majority for the opPosition:
72,9% participation; 460 seats
36.8% = 200 ZP
31.6% = 163 KO
13.0% = 055 TD
08.6% = 030 Left
06.2% = 012 ConFed.
02.4% = 000 BS (centre-left)
01.2% = 000 PJJ (antiVacc.)
00.2% = 000 Inne
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2023 19:31:32 GMT
ExitPoll by IPSOS for the 3 main TeleVision-channels predicts a majprity for the opPosition: 72,9% participation; 460 seats 36.8% = 200 ZP 31.6% = 163 KO 13.0% = 055 TD 06.2% = 030 ConFed. 02.4% = 000 BS (centre-left) 01.2% = 000 PJJ (antiVacc.) 00.2% = 000 Inne exactly 50% of the seats for PiS+Con Sorry: 30 = Left, ConFed. = 12. |
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Post by redvers on Oct 15, 2023 22:46:02 GMT
On a forlorn hope, does anyone have a link to anywhere doing any English-language live coverage of the results?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2023 23:18:23 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2023 23:59:11 GMT
After 5 hours the EC has counted 0.54%... At least we have the crossTabulations of the IPSOS-ExitPoll - another one by OGB-Pro is even more negative for the Right, by the way - for sexes, ages, proFessions, formal education, municipalityInHabitants, voteStreams since 2019 (& pres. 2020): tvn24.pl/wybory-parlamentarne-2023 |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Oct 16, 2023 0:55:40 GMT
Good results for the opposition in the exit poll. They are clearly ahead rather than the tighter exit poll I was expecting. The two exit polls show seat projections of: Ipsos PiS - 200 KO - 163 TD - 55 NL - 30 Kon - 12 Opposition - 248 PiS/KO - 212 ISGB PiS - 178 KO - 155 TD - 63 NL - 38 Kon - 25 MN - 1 Opposition - 256 PiS/KO - 203
Turnout appears to have been the real winner though.
There are lots of fun and games ahead though. Duda has 30 days to recall parliament and he gets to pick the PM. That means he'll almost certainly pick a PiS PM. That PM then has 14 days to present their programme to parliament and win a vote of confidence. Only then may parliament have a go. Duda will remain president Tusk has seemingly united the opposition behind him. However, that was very much opposition vs. PiS rather than actually uniting behind him. Duda also remains as president and can veto legislation. The opposition would need a 3/5 majority to overide the veto. Some good places for results: National Electoral Office (In English) - wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/enTVP World (State broadcaster. Pro PiS) tvpworld.com/ (The current headline is Law and Justice in the lead and the second is Morawiecki will try to form a government - what a joke given the exit polls) TVN24 (In Polish) - tvn24.pl/Guardian Live Blog - www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/15/poland-election-pis-hopes-to-win-third-term-and-fend-off-donald-tusk-led-opposition-follow-liveNotes from Poland - notesfrompoland.com/It has to be remembered, though, PiS campaigned in this election on staying in the EU and 'Polexit' was a Tusk attack line.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 16, 2023 2:43:02 GMT
After nearly 8 hours 2% is released and mostly from the diaSpora, so random; in the mainLand often special precincts in hospitals and elderlyHomes, so PiS-friendly.
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