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Post by pericles on Oct 19, 2023 0:42:28 GMT
Lessons for Starmer here. Listen to the base and your MPs, not unelected advisors whose main focus is low tax rates for when they get a job in the private sector or at McKinsey. I do think this shows he is definitely going to win and likely in a landslide because the UK Tories have every problem Labour has and then lots more. However I am seeing history repeat, I think he is boxing himself in and so I think his government is on track to end up like NZ Labour-not delivering the change people expect. |
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Post by pericles on Oct 19, 2023 0:42:42 GMT
Actually I just realised that this election is basically a mirror of the 2011 election, except for ACT's vote being a lot higher and National's being lower. It really is striking how well they compare. I'll post the two sets of results side by side for each party to show how well they line up. National=59 seats 47.31% (2011)/50 seats 38.99% (2023) ACT=1 seat 1.07% (2011)/11 seats 9.00% (2023) National + ACT=60 seats 48.38% (2011)/61 seats 47.99% (2023) Labour=34 seats 27.48% (2011)/34 seats 26.85% (2023) Green=14 seats 11.06% (2011)/14 seats 10.78% (2023) Labour + Green= 48 seats 38.54% (2011)/48 seats 37.63% (2023) NZ First=8 seats 6.59% (2011)/8 seats 6.46% (2023) The Mana Party was a split from the Maori Party so their combined vote is also a useful comparison. Maori=3 seats 1.43% (2011)/4 seats 2.60% (2023) Mana=1 seat 1.08% (2011) Combined=4 seats 2.51% (2011)/4 seats 2.60% (2023) In 2011, National got back into government thanks to Maori Party support and support from United Future, which had 1 overhang seat then and doesn't exist now. I'll need to review this after the final results, I expect by then that Labour will squeeze ahead of its 2011 vote and the Greens will have a record vote share (2011 being their current record). 2011 was an uncompetitive election when National won with a very popular incumbent PM in John Key and the economic recovery from the GFC was seen as successful. So getting those results with an incumbent Labour government (let alone one in 2020 that was arguably the most popular in history) looks really bad. On the other hand, it also shows that John Key had some closer calls than it looks and National's vote was so high in the 2010s from them cannibalising their support partners-they figured this out the hard way in 2017. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_Zealand_general_electionelections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the-2023-general-election/ |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 19, 2023 1:09:25 GMT
Lessons for Starmer here. Listen to the base and your MPs, not unelected advisors whose main focus is low tax rates for when they get a job in the private sector or at McKinsey. Isn’t listening to the base something that can also backfire in politics? |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 19, 2023 3:15:54 GMT
Lessons for Starmer here. Listen to the base and your MPs, not unelected advisors whose main focus is low tax rates for when they get a job in the private sector or at McKinsey. Isn’t listening to the base something that can also backfire in politics?
It's all about the base...
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Post by pericles on Nov 3, 2023 1:37:26 GMT
 Full results. National and ACT will need Winston Peters, but so far it looks like negotiations are going smoothly so the new government will have 68 seats after Port Waikato, while the opposition will have 55 seats. This was the best result ever for TPM and the Greens. Labour regained Nelson and Te Atatu (not like Phil Twyford is a high value MP lol), while losing two more electorates and senior ministers Kelvin Davis and Peeni Henare to Te Pati Maori. Labour now officially lost 31 MPs and 23.10% of their vote share from the 2020 election. Here are the detailed results, I will do some analysis of these to try and find what was going on in this election. |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 3, 2023 1:51:09 GMT
Good to see Winston back.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 3, 2023 1:54:24 GMT
Good to see Winston back. Said nobody, ever... |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 3, 2023 2:03:42 GMT
Good to see Winston back. Said nobody, ever... Well maybe his voters will be |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 3, 2023 2:17:49 GMT
Full results. National and ACT will need Winston Peters, but so far it looks like negotiations are going smoothly so the new government will have 68 seats after Port Waikato, while the opposition will have 55 seats. This was the best result ever for TPM and the Greens. Labour regained Nelson and Te Atatu (not like Phil Twyford is a high value MP lol), while losing two more electorates and senior ministers Kelvin Davis and Peeni Henare to Te Pati Maori. Labour now officially lost 31 MPs and 23.10% of their vote share from the 2020 election. Here are the detailed results, I will do some analysis of these to try and find what was going on in this election. It was a pretty horrendous result from Labour, they've lost seats to the right and left as well as Maori
Possibly the remarkably good 2020 result didn't help with setting expectations
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 3, 2023 2:25:03 GMT
Well maybe his voters will be By past evidence, they'll regret their vote sooner or later... Especially as he's back with a list only party. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Nov 3, 2023 3:57:00 GMT
Good to see Winston back. Said nobody, ever... They did in 1940 |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Nov 3, 2023 8:40:41 GMT
Close FPTP seats Te Atatū: Nats lead Lab by 30 votes. Labour candidate won't be elected with the list as he is down in #49 spot Nelson: Nats lead Lab by 54 votes. Labour candidate won't be elected with the list as he is down in #42 spot. Banks Peninsula: Nats lead Lab by 83 votes. Labour candidate set to get the last list seat so far. Mt Albert: Lab lead Nats by 103 votes with 98.8% counted. Nat candidate will get in through the list. Tāmaki Makaurau: Lab lead Maori Party by 471 votes with 97.3% counted Te Tai Tokerau: Lab lead Maori Party by 476 votes with 98.6% counted New Lynn: Nats lead Lab by 484 votes with 98.2% counted. Labour candidate should get one of the list seats. Labour won Te Atatū and Nelson (by 29 votes). In both cases the NAT candidate isn't elected through the list. Maori won Tāmaki Makaurau (by 4 votes) and Te Tai Tokerau. Both Labour candidates are elected through the list. The Labour candidate who lost Banks Peninsula by 396 votes is now the first not-elected spot on Labour list. |
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Post by pericles on Nov 3, 2023 10:14:37 GMT
Full results. National and ACT will need Winston Peters, but so far it looks like negotiations are going smoothly so the new government will have 68 seats after Port Waikato, while the opposition will have 55 seats. This was the best result ever for TPM and the Greens. Labour regained Nelson and Te Atatu (not like Phil Twyford is a high value MP lol), while losing two more electorates and senior ministers Kelvin Davis and Peeni Henare to Te Pati Maori. Labour now officially lost 31 MPs and 23.10% of their vote share from the 2020 election. Here are the detailed results, I will do some analysis of these to try and find what was going on in this election. It was a pretty horrendous result from Labour, they've lost seats to the right and left as well as Maori
Possibly the remarkably good 2020 didn't help with setting expectations
Maybe? Most people expected Labour to lose this year imo. |
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Post by pericles on Nov 3, 2023 10:14:49 GMT
Some electorate stats now that we have the final results-
National won the party vote in 54 seats, Labour in 16 (and in all the Maori seats, so just 9 general electorates), and the Greens in 2 seats.
National won a majority of the party vote in 10 electorates (including Labour-held Takanini), Labour won a majority in 4 electorates (Mangere, Manurewa, Panmure Otahuhu and Ikaroa-Rawhiti).
The electorate that gave a single party the highest share of the party vote was still Labour-held, Mangere with 60.72%.
National won a majority of the candidate vote in 26 electorates (8 of them Labour-held), Labour won in 5 (the same safe 4 plus Hipkins' Remutaka), and Te Pati Maori in 3 (Hauraki Waikato, Te Tai Hauauru, and Waiarik).
The MP who received the highest share of the vote was Rawiri Waititi, in Waiariki (74.25%).
Of the general electorate MPs, Erica Stanford in East Coast Bays did the best (71.52%).
The general electorate MP with the lowest vote share and worst performance compared to their party's vote was Maureen Pugh, in West Coast-Tasman, who won with just 31.35% and 2.15% behind National.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 3, 2023 10:34:53 GMT
It was a pretty horrendous result from Labour, they've lost seats to the right and left as well as Maori
Possibly the remarkably good 2020 didn't help with setting expectations
Maybe? Most people expected Labour to lose this year imo. Indeed, with the scale of the defeat I’m just thinking that winning a majority in 2020 maybe set some unrealistic expectations for what the government could achieve |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 3, 2023 11:03:10 GMT
Well maybe his voters will be By past evidence, they'll regret their vote sooner or later... Especially as he's back with a list only party. To be fair he’s pretty consistently been part of parliament since leaving National and forming New Zealand First. They narrowly missed out on the threshold in 2008 in the wake of a fraud investigation scandal but got back in at the first opportunity. 2020 they did suffer a battering and were well short which I guess is why a different approach has been taken this time e.g. ruling out Labour, negotiations seemingly not being dragged out like they have been previously As for being list only, simply the electoral system allows it. They don’t really have any constituency bases at the moment so it would make sense to focus purely on the party vote especially as 5% is a fairly high threshold for a PR system In saying all that Winston isn’t getting any younger and he’s been that much of a one man band there doesn’t seem to have been any clear succession planning. So whenever he’s forced to retire I don’t imagine NZF have much of a future |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 3, 2023 18:07:06 GMT
By past evidence, they'll regret their vote sooner or later... Especially as he's back with a list only party. To be fair he’s pretty consistently been part of parliament since leaving National and forming New Zealand First. They narrowly missed out on the threshold in 2008 in the wake of a fraud investigation scandal but got back in at the first opportunity. 2020 they did suffer a battering and were well short which I guess is why a different approach has been taken this time e.g. ruling out Labour, negotiations seemingly not being dragged out like they have been previously As for being list only, simply the electoral system allows it. They don’t really have any constituency bases at the moment so it would make sense to focus purely on the party vote especially as 5% is a fairly high threshold for a PR system In saying all that Winston isn’t getting any younger and he’s been that much of a one man band there doesn’t seem to have been any clear succession planning. So whenever he’s forced to retire I don’t imagine NZF have much of a future Being list only and not having a constituency base is pretty much my point. It makes them much more vulnerable to having no representation at all as they can't rely on a local electorate to keep them in. And you're right, I think this is pretty much their last hurrah. I expect them to be out again in three years time and then Peters will call it a day and that'll be it. Be interesting to see if a similar party takes their place or the vote disperses elsewhere. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 3, 2023 18:18:49 GMT
To be fair he’s pretty consistently been part of parliament since leaving National and forming New Zealand First. They narrowly missed out on the threshold in 2008 in the wake of a fraud investigation scandal but got back in at the first opportunity. 2020 they did suffer a battering and were well short which I guess is why a different approach has been taken this time e.g. ruling out Labour, negotiations seemingly not being dragged out like they have been previously As for being list only, simply the electoral system allows it. They don’t really have any constituency bases at the moment so it would make sense to focus purely on the party vote especially as 5% is a fairly high threshold for a PR system In saying all that Winston isn’t getting any younger and he’s been that much of a one man band there doesn’t seem to have been any clear succession planning. So whenever he’s forced to retire I don’t imagine NZF have much of a future Being list only and not having a constituency base is pretty much my point. It makes them much more vulnerable to having no representation at all as they can't rely on a local electorate to keep them in. And you're right, I think this is pretty much their last hurrah. I expect them to be out again in three years time and then Peters will call it a day and that'll be it. Be interesting to see if a similar party takes their place or the vote disperses elsewhere. It’s difficult to say because they’ve been one of those populist parties that have genuinely managed to win votes from the left and the right |
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Post by pericles on Nov 4, 2023 9:24:28 GMT
Maybe? Most people expected Labour to lose this year imo. Indeed, with the scale of the defeat I’m just thinking that winning a majority in 2020 maybe set some unrealistic expectations for what the government could achieve A little bit yeah, but the main problem with Labour's expectation setting came with their 2017 campaign promising to be a 'transformational government' with ambitious promises on housing, child poverty and Auckland light rail. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 27, 2023 11:55:34 GMT
Winston has returned as Deputy PM
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