|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 14, 2023 20:42:11 GMT
Although the Nationals can form a coalition with ACT, the resulting coalition will only have a majority of 2 so NZ First will likely be needed for confidence and supply. Governing with a narrow majority is way better than doing a deal with Winston. |
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2023 20:47:01 GMT
Although the Nationals can form a coalition with ACT, the resulting coalition will only have a majority of 2 so NZ First will likely be needed for confidence and supply. Governing with a narrow majority is way better than doing a deal with Winston. They should only make deals with that twat on Maori issues. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,367 
|
Post by stb12 on Oct 14, 2023 20:58:08 GMT
The defeated Tāmaki MP Simon O’Connor was one of the most socially conservative members in parliament and caused controversy last year by celebrating the Roe v Wade overturn on Twitter
He’s also 54th on the National list so isn’t going to be saved by that
|
|
xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
|
Post by xenon on Oct 14, 2023 21:30:40 GMT
I wish Britain had a Winston Peters, if only to make election night a bit more interesting. Maybe an opportunity for Ed Davey to reinvent himself?
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,367
|
Post by stb12 on Oct 14, 2023 21:33:53 GMT
I wish Britain had a Winston Peters, if only to make election night a bit more interesting. Maybe an opportunity for Ed Davey to reinvent himself? He’s an impressive politician in many ways but New Zealand’s electoral system has obviously helped give him the prominence he’s had over the years |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
|
Post by maxque on Oct 14, 2023 22:11:11 GMT
Although the Nationals can form a coalition with ACT, the resulting coalition will only have a majority of 2 so NZ First will likely be needed for confidence and supply. Governing with a narrow majority is way better than doing a deal with Winston. Nothing is played yet, through, special votes won't be counted for another 10 days and they usually lean to the left, so that majority might be wiped or reduced. Special votes are for people on the unpublished register, people who registered within 31 days of the election, voted from outside their electorate, are overseas postal voters, hospitalized, unable to attend the polling station for a convincing reason or are on remand (so in prison but awaiting their trial). |
|
|
|
Post by groznik on Oct 15, 2023 1:09:41 GMT
Governing with a narrow majority is way better than doing a deal with Winston. Nothing is played yet, through, special votes won't be counted for another 10 days and they usually lean to the left, so that majority might be wiped or reduced. Special votes are for people on the unpublished register, people who registered within 31 days of the election, voted from outside their electorate, are overseas postal voters, hospitalized, unable to attend the polling station for a convincing reason or are on remand (so in prison but awaiting their trial). Apparently, there are 567,000 Special Votes to count (just over 2,250,000 votes counted to date). The votes last night were provisionally counted at the polling place, so they go to central points and are recounted. Historically, as stated above they go left (the Centre-Right loses 1-2 electorates). This may change as many of the overseas voters re likely to have been badly affected by the closing of the borders 2020-2 and may vote differently this time. My takeaways from a fascinating night: 1) A lot of huge Labour majorities were overturned - nearly 19,000 in Wellington Central and just over in Rongotai next door which is likely to go Green as well. The Green campaigning machine in Wellington is impressive and effective.
2) Extraordinary results in West Auckland - Mts Albert and Roskill in particular are Labour heartland seats and Mt Albert was home to Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern. Mt Roskill is likely to go National (the outgoing MP Michael Wood tagged as a future Labour leader until he had to resign as a Minister over non-declaration of shareholdings in his name and in a trust he was a trustee of which he failed to do despite numerous reminders). 3 other former Labour seats are currently too close to call there, all previously with 5 figure majorities. Worth noting that Jacinda's successor Helen White was the losing candidate in Auckland Central in 2017 and 2020 so not a great record. She inherited a majority of 21,246 and currently leads by 106.
3) 3 Christchurch Labour MPs are currently hanging on by majorities of under 2,000 (even Christchurch East which is considered a very safe seat).
4) Astonishing to see the likely demise of two Labour Maori political dynasties in Hauraki-Waikato (just south of Auckland) (Nanaia Mahuta the Foreign Minister to a 20-year-old) and Te Tai Tonga (South Island and much of Greater Wellington) (Rino Tirakatene). I would not attempt to explain voting patterns in Maori seats which are often driven by personal and tribal connections and relationships, but with such enormous seats profile and name recognition are key.
4) The return of Winston Peters - you just can't kill him off. I remember him from the late 1970s as a young National MP. I thought he represented those nostalgic for the collectivism of the Muldoon years, but he's now reinvented himself as the repository of voters for those affected by COVID vaccination requirements, discontent with creeping Maorification and followers of conspiracy theories. I suspect he'll hold the balance of power in 2 weeks time though there is still the Port Waikato by-election to come on 25 November (very safe National). Incidentally, there were probably 5 parties from the anti-vaxxer, 'freedom' end of the political spectrum who got under 2% of the party vote between them.
5) As things stand Labour do not have a single seat with a 5-figure majority. In 2020 they had 5 over 18,000 and 65 MPs (now down to 34 though that will change).
6) Possibly a record number of electorate seats held by minor parties. At present they lead in 9 which equals the 1996 figure. The 'Tamati Coffey moment' in 2023 was Brooke van Velden of ACT defeating the social conservative Simon O'Connor in Tamaki, next door to David Seymour and another very safe seat (former stronghold of Robert Muldoon).
7) If we assume that an interim majority of 2,000 means a candidate is very likely to be elected, then 18/71 electorate seats are still up for grabs. It makes a huge difference to Labour in particular as there are a lot of senior figures relying on getting back in on the list. Currently the split is 17 electorate - 17 list but could easily be 27-7.
|
|
|
|
Post by pericles on Oct 15, 2023 7:32:49 GMT
Labour were annihilated-even considering the Covid bump in 2020 both the swing and actual party vote were historically bad for an incumbent government. There will be lots of soul-searching to be done, but Labour clearly need to be a much better government next time. As for the electorates, there clearly was an Auckland effect. West Auckland could even be called a 'red wall' for Labour, this vote interestingly was very diverse-Mt Roskill was 49% Asian for example. Why Labour doesn't connect with working-class immigrants will need to be a big point of the analysis, and it might even be useful for overseas progressive parties to pay attention.
|
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Oct 15, 2023 8:38:39 GMT
Labour were annihilated-even considering the Covid bump in 2020 both the swing and actual party vote were historically bad for an incumbent government. There will be lots of soul-searching to be done, but Labour clearly need to be a much better government next time. As for the electorates, there clearly was an Auckland effect. West Auckland could even be called a 'red wall' for Labour, this vote interestingly was very diverse-Mt Roskill was 49% Asian for example. Why Labour doesn't connect with working-class immigrants will need to be a big point of the analysis, and it might even be useful for overseas progressive parties to pay attention. I wonder if their aggressively pro-Mauri stance hurt them with immigrants (As we saw in Western Sydney). |
|
ibfc
BJP
Posts: 1,963
Member is Online
|
Post by ibfc on Oct 15, 2023 9:26:42 GMT
Labour were annihilated-even considering the Covid bump in 2020 both the swing and actual party vote were historically bad for an incumbent government. There will be lots of soul-searching to be done, but Labour clearly need to be a much better government next time. As for the electorates, there clearly was an Auckland effect. West Auckland could even be called a 'red wall' for Labour, this vote interestingly was very diverse-Mt Roskill was 49% Asian for example. Why Labour doesn't connect with working-class immigrants will need to be a big point of the analysis, and it might even be useful for overseas progressive parties to pay attention. I wonder if their aggressively pro-Mauri stance hurt them with immigrants (As we saw in Western Sydney). I think that's likely. Left wing parties have historically gained support from immigrants on the ground that right wing parties are racist towards them. This undermines that argument to quite an extent irrespective of whatever motivations the Left Wing party has. A family with debts to pay in relation to the move and money to send back home is not interested in correcting perceived historical injustice. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2023 9:53:38 GMT
Has anyone found maps - no, not the x-th of winner and margin, instead of partyStrength and %-change 2020-vs.-2023?
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2023 10:43:23 GMT
Labour were annihilated-even considering the Covid bump in 2020 both the swing and actual party vote were historically bad for an incumbent government. There will be lots of soul-searching to be done, but Labour clearly need to be a much better government next time. As for the electorates, there clearly was an Auckland effect. West Auckland could even be called a 'red wall' for Labour, this vote interestingly was very diverse-Mt Roskill was 49% Asian for example. Why Labour doesn't connect with working-class immigrants will need to be a big point of the analysis, and it might even be useful for overseas progressive parties to pay attention. I wonder if their aggressively pro-Mauri stance hurt them with immigrants (As we saw in Western Sydney). I seem to recall there being an Indian shopkeeper being murdered last year that led to some protests. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,797
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2023 11:13:07 GMT
Pollster-perFormances: - chronological order (only 2023):  - best (= lowest deViation per polled party):  - last of each company:  TalbotMills did best, but perhaps only, because they didn't poll in the last 2 weeks, when others recorded a LabourSurge? |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Oct 15, 2023 11:42:00 GMT
By my reckoning Labour is back roughly where it was in 2014 in terms of overall support, and marginally better in seats, with special votes still to be counted. A bad result but largely reflecting an abnormal previous election plus the inevitable political pendulum. The campaign and its prelude were pretty poor making matters worse.
|
|
|
|
Post by groznik on Oct 16, 2023 8:48:51 GMT
I wonder if their aggressively pro-Mauri stance hurt them with immigrants (As we saw in Western Sydney). I seem to recall there being an Indian shopkeeper being murdered last year that led to some protests. Correct: Janek Patel was killed on 23 November last year in a raid on the Rose Cottage Superette in Sandringham, Auckland: earlier this month an Indian origin couple owning the New Windsor Dairy (corner shop) nearby were both stabbed by someone on electronically monitored bail: one I believe is still in hospital. Both of these are in either Mt Albert or Mt Roskill electorates. Auckland is experiencing a crimewave which the soon to be former Government chose to downplay. It seems to be particularly bad in West Auckland. |
|
|
|
Post by pericles on Oct 17, 2023 19:22:32 GMT
I seem to recall there being an Indian shopkeeper being murdered last year that led to some protests. Correct: Janek Patel was killed on 23 November last year in a raid on the Rose Cottage Superette in Sandringham, Auckland: earlier this month an Indian origin couple owning the New Windsor Dairy (corner shop) nearby were both stabbed by someone on electronically monitored bail: one I believe is still in hospital. Both of these are in either Mt Albert or Mt Roskill electorates. Auckland is experiencing a crimewave which the soon to be former Government chose to downplay. It seems to be particularly bad in West Auckland. Imo this likely is a bigger factor than the Auckland lockdown. Crime was the second most important issue nationally and in Auckland it nearly tied with cost of living. Labour did not come across as in touch on that one and the actual results-higher violent and retail crime-were unacceptable to the electorate. I am liberal on crime so I don't blame them for trying to reduce the prison population, but it was disastrous timing to do it. I think the Auckland lockdown has been getting a lot more attention in the analysis than it deserves. It might have had a marginal impact but people had moved on from Covid and most people did support Labour's Covid response anyway. Dan Andrews in Victoria after all won in a landslide after having the world's longest lockdown. As far as I can tell the Labour brand, while getting hurt at the time, was still winning going into 2022. I think the turning point was the rise in inflation in early 2022 and lasting economic hangover, combined with Labour's struggles to deliver across most non Covid issues, that crashed its numbers and led most people to think the country was going in the wrong direction. I will say though I am not from Auckland so I had a much better experience of the pandemic. |
|
|
|
Post by groznik on Oct 18, 2023 6:17:55 GMT
Correct: Janek Patel was killed on 23 November last year in a raid on the Rose Cottage Superette in Sandringham, Auckland: earlier this month an Indian origin couple owning the New Windsor Dairy (corner shop) nearby were both stabbed by someone on electronically monitored bail: one I believe is still in hospital. Both of these are in either Mt Albert or Mt Roskill electorates. Auckland is experiencing a crimewave which the soon to be former Government chose to downplay. It seems to be particularly bad in West Auckland. Imo this likely is a bigger factor than the Auckland lockdown. Crime was the second most important issue nationally and in Auckland it nearly tied with cost of living. Labour did not come across as in touch on that one and the actual results-higher violent and retail crime-were unacceptable to the electorate. I am liberal on crime so I don't blame them for trying to reduce the prison population, but it was disastrous timing to do it. I think the Auckland lockdown has been getting a lot more attention in the analysis than it deserves. It might have had a marginal impact but people had moved on from Covid and most people did support Labour's Covid response anyway. Dan Andrews in Victoria after all won in a landslide after having the world's longest lockdown. As far as I can tell the Labour brand, while getting hurt at the time, was still winning going into 2022. I think the turning point was the rise in inflation in early 2022 and lasting economic hangover, combined with Labour's struggles to deliver across most non Covid issues, that crashed its numbers and led most people to think the country was going in the wrong direction. I will say though I am not from Auckland so I had a much better experience of the pandemic. Like you I don’t live in Auckland and I surprise my UK based family and friends by saying that my experience was far better than theirs. Other than the long 7 week lockdown at the beginning it was an exercise in working out what the maximum number of people allowed at an public event was. My Auckland friends did deeply resent the 2 ‘bonus’ lockdowns they got though and I don’t think we should ignore that. However, what you say above accords with what my friends say. I think Jacinda realised that she was a ,liability for Labour last year and Chippy had his work cut out to restore their position. He got a momentary bounce and that was it. Some of the swings might well be akin to those in recent UK by elections lost by the Tories, but it’s difficult to do a direct comparison in an MMP system. We also still have a lot of votes left to count - a friend scrutineering in Central Wellington said the vast majority of votes in her polling station were ones that would not have been counted on the night. |
|
|
|
Post by groznik on Oct 18, 2023 6:23:18 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by pericles on Oct 18, 2023 22:57:21 GMT
Campaign-focused analysis of how Chris Hipkins ended up as a 'gigantic loser'Labour's weak tax policy definitely hurt them, but the fuel tax relief being lifted was also a big and totally unnecessary mistake. Additionally, losing three ministers to scandal and one defecting in a few months was hugely damaging and it exacerbated the already prevalent narrative that Labour was just incompetent and didn't have a solid team. I remember when I saw the fourth minister go down, Kiri Allan for getting arrested for reckless driving as the Justice Minister (!), it just felt so damaging and so hard for Labour to come back from. The timing of that fits with Labour plummeting into the political death zone of the 20s.
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
|
Post by maxque on Oct 19, 2023 0:35:59 GMT
Lessons for Starmer here. Listen to the base and your MPs, not unelected advisors whose main focus is low tax rates for when they get a job in the private sector or at McKinsey.
|
|
