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Post by ibfc on Oct 13, 2023 11:24:02 GMT
NZF 77% ACT 77% NP 71% Labour 43% TOP 39% Māori Parti 21% Greens 9%
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Post by dundas on Oct 13, 2023 15:15:12 GMT
ACT New Zealand 69% National Party 60% New Zealand First 59% The Opportunities Party 51% Labour Party 36% Te Pāti Māori 30% Green Party of Aotearoa/New Zealand 22%
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,251
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 14, 2023 6:35:05 GMT
Over 10% counted and so far quite a blowOut: 41% vs. 26%!
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Post by ibfc on Oct 14, 2023 7:10:50 GMT
That trend remains with 25% counted. Looks like a comfortable majority for NP + ACT.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 14, 2023 8:47:45 GMT
With 53% counted it is
NP 51 seats Lab 27 Greens 13 ACT 12 New Zealand First 8 Maori 4
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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2023 8:50:11 GMT
With 53% counted it is NP 51 seats Lab 27 Greens 13 ACT 12 New Zealand First 8 Maori 4 + another NAT seat in late November.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 14, 2023 10:14:47 GMT
A most wonderful result. Labour swept from office and it looks like Luxon will have no need to go begging to the deplorable Winston.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 14, 2023 10:16:26 GMT
90% counted
NP 50 seats Lab 34 Greens 13 ACT 12 New Zealand First 8 Maori 4
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on Oct 14, 2023 10:25:02 GMT
FPTP seats
ACT winning Epson (hold; 6890 votes lead with 92% counted) and Tāmaki (4,547 lead with 92% counted). Tamaki is a gain from Nat
Greens leading Auckland Central (would be an hold. 1,935 votes lead, with 86% counted), Rongotai (783 lead, with 74% counted) and Wellington Central (3,054 lead, with 87% counted). Rongotai and WC would gains from Lab.
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Post by matureleft on Oct 14, 2023 10:41:32 GMT
Presumably we have the normal 10 day interval for special votes. Those have a history of marginally altering the results, I think.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,812
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 14, 2023 10:49:54 GMT
After 4 completed counts Electorate Vote: ACT 4.49%, Greens 2.70%, Labour 38.17%, National 47.58%, New Zealand First 2.03%, Others 5.02% Party Vote: ACT 11.08%, Greens 9.95%, Labour 27.24%, Maoris 0.67%, National 37.91%, New Zealand First 8.98%, TOP 1.77%, Others 2.39%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,708
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 14, 2023 11:08:55 GMT
Even earlier this year, there looked likely to be another Labour government despite (as was always obvious) a big swing to the Nationals compared to 2020.
Hard to avoid the conclusion that Hipkins blew it.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2023 11:11:58 GMT
Even earlier this year, there looked likely to be another Labour government despite (as was always obvious) a big swing to the Nationals compared to 2020. Hard to avoid the conclusion that Hipkins blew it. I disagree, it was clearly going in the Nats direction by the time Arden resigned (there was a bump after that, but it was never going to last).
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,336
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 14, 2023 11:13:17 GMT
Even earlier this year, there looked likely to be another Labour government despite (as was always obvious) a big swing to the Nationals compared to 2020. Hard to avoid the conclusion that Hipkins blew it. Two members of the cabinet resigning in quick succession due to scandal during the relaunch phase will do that.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 14, 2023 12:32:52 GMT
98% counted
NP 50 seats Lab 34 Greens 14 ACT 11 New Zealand First 8 Maori 4
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 14, 2023 13:16:42 GMT
Close FPTP seats
Te Atatū: Nats lead Lab by 30 votes. Labour candidate won't be elected with the list as he is down in #49 spot Nelson: Nats lead Lab by 54 votes. Labour candidate won't be elected with the list as he is down in #42 spot. Banks Peninsula: Nats lead Lab by 83 votes. Labour candidate set to get the last list seat so far. Mt Albert: Lab lead Nats by 103 votes with 98.8% counted. Nat candidate will get in through the list. Tāmaki Makaurau: Lab lead Maori Party by 471 votes with 97.3% counted Te Tai Tokerau: Lab lead Maori Party by 476 votes with 98.6% counted New Lynn: Nats lead Lab by 484 votes with 98.2% counted. Labour candidate should get one of the list seats.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 14, 2023 15:22:52 GMT
Even earlier this year, there looked likely to be another Labour government despite (as was always obvious) a big swing to the Nationals compared to 2020. Hard to avoid the conclusion that Hipkins blew it. I disagree, it was clearly going in the Nats direction by the time Arden resigned (there was a bump after that, but it was never going to last). A parallel could be drawn with the departure of Merkel and the subsequent implosion under her two handpicked successors. Voters didn't drop the CDU just because she wasn't going to be the Spitzenkandidat. This can't be just for Hipkins to own.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 14, 2023 15:35:54 GMT
Close FPTP seats Te Atatū: Nats lead Lab by 30 votes. Labour candidate won't be elected with the list as he is down in #49 spot Nelson: Nats lead Lab by 54 votes. Labour candidate won't be elected with the list as he is down in #42 spot. Banks Peninsula: Nats lead Lab by 83 votes. Labour candidate set to get the last list seat so far. Mt Albert: Lab lead Nats by 103 votes with 98.8% counted. Nat candidate will get in through the list. Tāmaki Makaurau: Lab lead Maori Party by 471 votes with 97.3% counted Te Tai Tokerau: Lab lead Maori Party by 476 votes with 98.6% counted New Lynn: Nats lead Lab by 484 votes with 98.2% counted. Labour candidate should get one of the list seats. Mount Albert is Ardern's old seat (and Helen Clark's). It has only ever voted Labour. To win by 100 or so votes is quite a collapse.
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Post by greenhert on Oct 14, 2023 20:16:12 GMT
Close FPTP seats Te Atatū: Nats lead Lab by 30 votes. Labour candidate won't be elected with the list as he is down in #49 spot Nelson: Nats lead Lab by 54 votes. Labour candidate won't be elected with the list as he is down in #42 spot. Banks Peninsula: Nats lead Lab by 83 votes. Labour candidate set to get the last list seat so far. Mt Albert: Lab lead Nats by 103 votes with 98.8% counted. Nat candidate will get in through the list. Tāmaki Makaurau: Lab lead Maori Party by 471 votes with 97.3% counted Te Tai Tokerau: Lab lead Maori Party by 476 votes with 98.6% counted New Lynn: Nats lead Lab by 484 votes with 98.2% counted. Labour candidate should get one of the list seats. Mount Albert is Ardern's old seat (and Helen Clark's). It has only ever voted Labour. To win by 100 or so votes is quite a collapse. Quite. Nearby Mount Roskill-almost as rough as Mount Albert-elected a National MP at electorate level for the very first time. In fact, as many as 18 NZ Labour MPs defending single member electorates lost their seats this election, with Sarah Pallett being pushed into 3rd place by Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji in Ilam.
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Post by greenhert on Oct 14, 2023 20:19:47 GMT
Although the Nationals can form a coalition with ACT, the resulting coalition will only have a majority of 2 so NZ First will likely be needed for confidence and supply.
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