neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Aug 19, 2023 14:29:30 GMT
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 20, 2023 12:25:04 GMT
I see it looks like Winston Peters may make yet another comeback
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 18, 2023 17:20:45 GMT
neilm any chance of a poll to see which party people would support?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 18, 2023 17:37:50 GMT
At this point, it’s really a choice between a National-ACT government and a National-ACT-New Zealand First government. Labour has slumped even further than expected since 2020 and the rise of the Maori Party (more in coverage than support) has pushed the chances of some sort of Labour Government even further into significance. If Labour did somehow still prevail, then the 2026 election could be truly nasty for them.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 18, 2023 17:44:01 GMT
At this point, it’s really a choice between a National-ACT government and a National-ACT-New Zealand First government. Labour has slumped even further than expected since 2020 and the rise of the Maori Party (more in coverage than support) has pushed the chances of some sort of Labour Government even further into significance. If Labour did somehow still prevail, then the 2026 election could be truly nasty for them. The conflict between the leaders of ACT and NZF certainly makes things interesting |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 18, 2023 18:18:41 GMT
The conflict between the leaders of ACT and NZF certainly makes things interesting “David Seymour discovered his Māori-ness the same way Columbus discovered America, purely by accident”. Of course it’s always fun when the labour splinter is a lot more right wing than the conservative splinter. |
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Post by pericles on Sept 19, 2023 4:08:22 GMT
neilm any chance of a poll to see which party people would support? Polling average. So different from 2020 for Labour.  |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 19, 2023 6:04:05 GMT
neilm any chance of a poll to see which party people would support? Polling average. So different from 2020 for Labour. Thank you, but I was referring to forum poll. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Sept 20, 2023 23:24:48 GMT
Latest poll, would apparently just give NAT-ACT a majority
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 20, 2023 23:41:07 GMT
AdminSTBMay we have a Forum Poll please?
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 21, 2023 15:33:33 GMT
On the way later today.
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 21, 2023 23:07:09 GMT
Done.
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Sept 21, 2023 23:12:59 GMT
Why are there two “Green” options? Are you a bonctilious noodle-wombat, or are you deliberately trying to splat the vote? |
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 22, 2023 9:44:11 GMT
Why are there two “Green” options? Are you a bonctilious noodle-wombat, or are you deliberately trying to splat the vote? I was tired and did it around midnight. I hadn't even been to the pub so can't use that as an excuse! |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 22, 2023 10:29:07 GMT
Might be impossible to put in a poll but there is of course the possibility of people wanting to vote differently between the electorate and list
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 22, 2023 11:29:57 GMT
Not just a possibility. The AMS (known as MMP there) system is complicated, particularly due to the requirement for a party to get either 5% or at least one constituency victory to qualify for list seats and also the overhang rules. Consequently, the ability of one party or existing pairing to get an outright majority can hinge on whether a party polling around 5% just makes it over the line or not, whether one of the smaller parties has sufficient concentrated support in certain electorates to get elected there (e.g. Te Pāti Māori in the Maori seats) or whether a big party throws a seat towards a potential coalition party. If a party wins more constituency seats than its list entitlement then it keeps the constituencies and additional list seats are created but only to the excess number, which again adds to the complexity.
Historically National has given nods and winks to individual constituencies to instead elect the candidate for a junior (potential) coalition partner and qualify them for list seats. The electorates have often responded accordingly (and led to the bizarre situation of Labour and Green supporters wanting a National victory locally more than National!).
Because both votes are on the same ballot paper it is possible to do an information count of combinations. In the past most National list voters voted National in the constituency but there was a massive deviation in the seats thrown to ACT or United Future. Green list voters were actually more likely to vote Labour in the constituency than Green.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 22, 2023 11:42:40 GMT
votecompass.tvnz.co.nz/nz2023How much you agree with the parties ACT New Zealand (ACT) 78% New Zealand First (NZF) 73% National Party (NAT) 73% The Opportunities Party (TOP) 51% Labour Party (LAB) 42% Te Pāti Māori (TPM) 20% Green Party of Aotearoa/New Zealand (GRN) 13%
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,367
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Post by stb12 on Sept 22, 2023 12:04:20 GMT
Not just a possibility. The AMS (known as MMP there) system is complicated, particularly due to the requirement for a party to get either 5% or at least one constituency victory to qualify for list seats and also the overhang rules. Consequently, the ability of one party or existing pairing to get an outright majority can hinge on whether a party polling around 5% just makes it over the line or not, whether one of the smaller parties has sufficient concentrated support in certain electorates to get elected there (e.g. Te Pāti Māori in the Maori seats) or whether a big party throws a seat towards a potential coalition party. If a party wins more constituency seats than its list entitlement then it keeps the constituencies and additional list seats are created but only to the excess number, which again adds to the complexity. Historically National has given nods and winks to individual constituencies to instead elect the candidate for a junior (potential) coalition partner and qualify them for list seats. The electorates have often responded accordingly (and led to the bizarre situation of Labour and Green supporters wanting a National victory locally more than National!). Because both votes are on the same ballot paper it is possible to do an information count of combinations. In the past most National list voters voted National in the constituency but there was a massive deviation in the seats thrown to ACT or United Future. Green list voters were actually more likely to vote Labour in the constituency than Green. Yes, I understand that’s why National have basically surrendered the Epsom seat to ACT for a number of years now I’m assuming the parties must have looser rules in terms of endorsing other candidates than you get in the UK because of this, as I believe National and Labour still run a candidate in every electorate even in ones where they encourage a vote for a smaller party |
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 22, 2023 13:13:11 GMT
I’m assuming the parties must have looser rules in terms of endorsing other candidates than you get in the UK because of this, as I believe National and Labour still run a candidate in every electorate even in ones where they encourage a vote for a smaller party Traditionally the National leader and ACT candidate would have a cup of tea in a cafe as a way of dropping the hint without actually saying it and leaving it to the media. |
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Post by aargauer on Sept 22, 2023 13:14:45 GMT
votecompass.tvnz.co.nz/nz2023How much you agree with the parties ACT New Zealand (ACT) 78% New Zealand First (NZF) 73% National Party (NAT) 73% The Opportunities Party (TOP) 51% Labour Party (LAB) 42% Te Pāti Māori (TPM) 20% Green Party of Aotearoa/New Zealand (GRN) 13% I was nowhere near anyone, which I was quite surprised by, as I see myself as a pretty good match for ACT. I don't think they've put ACT on the right place on the political compass at all. |
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