New boundaries - statistics and table thread

[Robert Waller]

Wonderful work by bjornhattan here

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jSoiVXos1xyVHx_FgyG5ctDRpxrDpleZ2KbIDH5A2rk/edit#gid=481844857

Copied across from the constituency table thraad on the older Almanac board:

Here are various stats for the new boundaries (in England and Wales, for the 2021 census). In each sheet you'll first find the raw numbers, then percentage figures, and finally ranks. I've done eight census variables so far (prioritising what Robert Waller uses for his constituency data tables and variables I personally find interesting):

Age
Household tenure
Ethnicity (both a broad overview and more detailed breakdowns for all 19 groups listed on the census)
Religion
Socioeconomic status (as measured by NS-SEC)
Qualifications
Travel to work

I'm happy to do any other variables that would interest people - just let me know and I'll look into doing them.

[Robert Waller]

2021 CENSUS

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF VOTERS WITH DEGREES

NEW BOUNDARIES

England and Wales

........ % ...... Result 2019 / notional

1. Battersea 65.2 Lab
2. Hampstead and Highgate 64.7 Lab
3. Richmond Park 64.1 LD gain from C
4. Cities of London and Westminster 62.2 C
5. Tooting 61.8 Lab
6. Putney 60.9 Lab gain from C
7. Kensington and Bayswater 60.6 C gain from Lab
8. Chelsea and Fulham 60.6 C
9. Wimbledon 60.5 C
10. Clapham and Brixton Hill 60.3 Lab
11. Hornsey and Friern Barnet 60.2 Lab
12. Hammersmith and Chiswick 58.4 Lab
13. Twickenham 58.2 LD
14. Lewisham West and East Dulwich 57.6 Lab
15. Islington North 57.6 Lab
16. Bermondsey and Old Southwark 56.9 Lab
17. Bristol Central 56.3 Lab
18. Dulwich and West Norwood 56.3 Lab
19. Islington South and Finsbury 56.2 Lab
20. Cambridge 55.7 Lab

Old boundaries table here
vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15070/vote-uk-almanac-constituency-tables?page=6

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 18, 2023 13:14:33 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 CENSUS

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF VOTERS WITH DEGREES

NEW BOUNDARIES

England and Wales

........ % ...... Result 2019 / notional

1. Battersea 65.2 Lab
2. Hampstead and Highgate 64.7 Lab
3. Richmond Park 64.1 LD gain from C
4. Cities of London and Westminster 62.2 C
5. Tooting 61.8 Lab
6. Putney 60.9 Lab gain from C
7. Kensington and Bayswater 60.6 C gain from Lab
8. Chelsea and Fulham 60.6 C
9. Wimbledon 60.5 C
10. Clapham and Brixton Hill 60.3 Lab
11. Hornsey and Friern Barnet 60.2 Lab
12. Hammersmith and Chiswick 58.4 Lab
13. Twickenham 58.2 LD
14. Lewisham West and East Dulwich 57.6 Lab
15. Islington North 57.6 Lab
16. Bermondsey and Old Southwark 56.9 Lab
17. Bristol Central 56.3 Lab
18. Dulwich and West Norwood 56.3 Lab
19. Islington South and Finsbury 56.2 Lab
20. Cambridge 55.7 Lab

Those 18 London constituencies form a contiguous block (but with Holborn & St Pancras forming a (perhaps rather surprising) hole in the doughnut)

[bjornhattan]

Jul 18, 2023 14:15:16 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 18, 2023 13:14:33 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 CENSUS

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF VOTERS WITH DEGREES

NEW BOUNDARIES

England and Wales

........ % ...... Result 2019 / notional

1. Battersea 65.2 Lab
2. Hampstead and Highgate 64.7 Lab
3. Richmond Park 64.1 LD gain from C
4. Cities of London and Westminster 62.2 C
5. Tooting 61.8 Lab
6. Putney 60.9 Lab gain from C
7. Kensington and Bayswater 60.6 C gain from Lab
8. Chelsea and Fulham 60.6 C
9. Wimbledon 60.5 C
10. Clapham and Brixton Hill 60.3 Lab
11. Hornsey and Friern Barnet 60.2 Lab
12. Hammersmith and Chiswick 58.4 Lab
13. Twickenham 58.2 LD
14. Lewisham West and East Dulwich 57.6 Lab
15. Islington North 57.6 Lab
16. Bermondsey and Old Southwark 56.9 Lab
17. Bristol Central 56.3 Lab
18. Dulwich and West Norwood 56.3 Lab
19. Islington South and Finsbury 56.2 Lab
20. Cambridge 55.7 Lab

Those 18 London constituencies form a contiguous block (but with Holborn & St Pancras forming a (perhaps rather surprising) hole in the doughnut)

There seem to be two reasons for Holborn & St Pancras being missing - firstly the Somers Town area which has a huge amount of social housing and a relatively low proportion of graduates, and secondly the massive concentration of students around Bloomsbury (enough to put the seat in the top 20 for that metric nationally). Either of these wouldn't be enough on its own - seats like the two Islingtons and Bermondsey have similar levels of social housing while Bristol Central and Cambridge both have more students - but both factors seem to combine to drive Holborn & St Pancras out of the top 20.

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF VOTERS WITH NO EDUCATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS

2021 Census

England and Wales

New Boundaries

......... % ........ Result 2019 (notional)

1. Leicester East 33.0 Lab
2. Tipton and Wednesbury 31.0 (C gain from Lab)
3. Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull N 29.5 Lab
4. Wolverhampton South East 29.3 Lab
5. Boston and Skegness 29.1 C
6. Bradford West 29.0 Lab
7. Clacton 29.0 C
8. Birmingham Perry Barr 28.9 Lab
9. Bradford East 28.9 Lab
10. Walsall and Bloxwich 28.9 C
11. Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney 28.7 Lab
12. Smethwick 28.5 Lab
13. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 28.4 Lab
14. Rhondda and Ogmore 28.0 Lab
15. Dewsbury and Batley 27.8 Lab
16. Knowsley 27.8 Lab
17. Birmingham Yardley 27.7 Lab
18. Barnsley South 27.4 Lab
19. West Bromwich 27.2 (C gain from Lab)
20. Aberafan Maesteg 27.0 Lab

Old boundaries table here
vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15070/vote-uk-almanac-constituency-tables?page=6

[Robert Waller]

2021 CENSUS

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING

NEW BOUNDARIES

England and Wales

....... % ….. Result 2019 (notional)….

1. Peckham 47.6 Lab
2. Vauxhall and Camberwell Green 45.1 (Lab)
3. Hackney South and Shoreditch 44.6 Lab
4. Holborn and St Pancras 43.3 Lab
5. Islington South and Finsbury 42.0 Lab
6. Bethnal Green and Stepney 40.8 Lab
7. Queen’s Park and Maida Vale 38.4 (Lab)
8. Islington North 37.7 Lab
9. Bermondsey and Old Southwark 37.2 Lab
10. Hackney North and Stoke Newington 37.1 Lab
11. Liverpool Riverside 37.0 Lab
12. Birmingham Ladywood 35.6 Lab
13. Manchester Rusholme 34.3 (Lab)
14. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 34.2 Lab
15. West Ham and Beckton 34.2 Lab
16. Dulwich and West Norwood 33.9 Lab
17. Clapham and Brixton Hill 33.7 (Lab)
18. Jarrow and Gateshead East 33.5 Lab
19. Lewisham North 33.2 (Lab)
20. Tottenham 33.0 Lab





Old boundaries table here, for comparison

2021 CENSUS

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING

England and Wales

% ….. Result 2019 …. Change since 2011

1. Hackney South and Shoreditch 45.8 Lab -4.3
2. Camberwell and Peckham 45.7 Lab -4.9
3. Islington South and Finsbury 42.7 Lab -1.0
4. Holborn and St Pancras 42.7 Lab +0.9
5. Bermondsey and Old Southwark 39.3 Lab -4.2
6. Bethnal Green and Bow 39.0 Lab -3.7
7. Vauxhall 39.0 Lab -2.2
8. Islington North 37.7 Lab -2.7
9. Hackney North and Stoke Newington 35.1 Lab -2.2
10. Birmingham Ladywood 35.1 Lab -3.1
11. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 34.5 Lab -3.0
12. Blackley and Broughton 33.5 Lab -3.8
13. Nottingham North 33.4 Lab -3.4
14. Poplar and Limehouse 33.3 Lab -3.4
15. Hammersmith 33.1 Lab -1.2
16. Greenwich and Woolwich 33.1 Lab -6.2
17. Barking 32.9 Lab -3.0
18. Wythenshawe and Sale East 32.8 Lab -0.2
19. Newcastle upon Tyne Central 32.7 Lab -2.6
20. Dulwich and West Norwood 31.5 Lab -0.9

[jamie]

I recently saw some polling by housing tenure that found the Conservatives led (not even that narrowly) among people in socially rented housing in 2019. I know correlation isn’t proof, but I’m sceptical.

[greenhert]

Jul 18, 2023 18:19:21 GMT jamie said:

I recently saw some polling by housing tenure that found the Conservatives led (not even that narrowly) among people in socially rented housing in 2019. I know correlation isn’t proof, but I’m sceptical.

Who conducted that polling? 

[jamie]

Jul 18, 2023 18:43:24 GMT greenhert said:

Jul 18, 2023 18:19:21 GMT jamie said:

I recently saw some polling by housing tenure that found the Conservatives led (not even that narrowly) among people in socially rented housing in 2019. I know correlation isn’t proof, but I’m sceptical.

Who conducted that polling? 

I saw it on a housing Susbstack post, can’t remember anything to identify it but it looked ‘credible’. 

[Robert Waller]

2021 CENSUS

NEW BOUNDARIES

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF OWNER OCCUPIED HOUSING

England and Wales

...... % ….. Result 2019 (notional)

1 Sefton Central 82.5 Lab
2. Cheadle 82.5 C
3. Rayleigh and Wickford 82.3 C
4. Stockton West 80.8 (C)
5. Ribble Valley 80.6 C
6. Castle Point 80.5 C
7. York Outer 80.3 C
8. Wirral West 80.2
9. Mid Leicestershire 79.6 (C)
10. Mid Derbyshire 79.3 C
11. Sheffield Hallam 79.3 Lab
12. Thornbury and Yate 79.0 C
13. Solihull W and Shirley 79.0 (C)
14. South Leicestershire 78.7 C
15. Bromsgrove 78.6 C
16. Kingswinford & South Staffordshire 78.4 (C)
17. Sutton Coldfield 78.2 C
18. North Somerset 78.2 C
19.. South West Devon 77.9 C
20. Staffordshire Moorlands 77.9 C


On current boundaries on this page
vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15070/vote-uk-almanac-constituency-tables?page=6

[YL]

Owner occupied, surely, with that list of constituencies?

[Robert Waller]

2021 CENSUS

NEW BOUNDARIES

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING

England and Wales

....................
% ........ 2019 result or notional

1. Cities of London and Westminster 47.2 C
2. Bristol Central 47.1 Lab
3. Sheffield Central 45.1 Lab
4. Leeds Central & Headingley 45.1 Lab
5. Kensington and Bayswater 42.7 C
6. Poplar and Limehouse 42.5 Lab
7. Manchester Central 40.9 Lab
8. Manchester Rusholme 39.7 Lab
9. East Ham 39.1 Lab
10. Hampstead and Highgate 38.9 Lab
11. Ealing Central and Acton 38.8 Lab
12. Finchley and Golders Green 38.4 C
13. Liverpool Riverside 38.3 Lab
14. Chelsea and Fulham 38.2 C
15. Battersea 38.1 Lab
16. Nottingham East 38.1 Lab
17. Stratford and Bow 37.8 Lab
18. Brent West 37.5 Lab
19. Tottenham 37.5 Lab
20. Reading Central 37.4 Lab




For comparison, on the existing/old boundaries

2021 CENSUS

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING

England and Wales

.................... % ........ 2019 result ....... Change 2011-21 censuses

1. Cities of London and Westminster 46.9 C +0.8
2. Bristol West 42.4 Lab +0.9
3. Poplar and Limehouse 40.7 Lab +5.0
4. Manchester Central 40.7 Lab +4.4
5. Westminster North 40.7 Lab +1.6
6. Hampstead and Kilburn 40.4 Lab +2.6
7. Ealing Central and Acton 40.0 Lab +4.1
8. East Ham 39.6 Lab +3.5
9. Ilford South 39.5 Lab +8.0
10. Liverpool, Riverside 39.0 Lab +1.3
11. Kensington 39.0 C gain from Lab +0.4
12. Sheffield Central 38.7 Lab +1.2
13. Chelsea and Fulham 38.7 C +2.8
14. Cardiff Central 38.6 Lab +1.0
15. Finchley and Golders Green 38.4 C +4.6
16. Leeds Central 38.3 Lab +4.5
17. Battersea 38.3 Lab +5.6
18. West Ham 38.1 Lab +3.5
19. Brent Central 38.0 Lab +4.2
20. Tottenham 37.7 Lab +5.3

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF MUSLIMS

NEW BOUNDARIES

2021 CENSUS

………..... % …… Result 2019/notional

1. Bradford West 58.7 Lab
2. Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley 54.4 Lab
3. Birmingham Ladywood 49.0 Lab
4. East Ham 47.1 Lab
5. Blackburn 46.8 Lab
6. Bethnal Green and Stepney 46.6 Lab
7. Bradford East 44.3 Lab
8. Dewsbury & Batley 43.7 (Lab)
9. Birmingham Perry Barr 42.9 Lab
10. Birmingham Yardley 42.6 Lab
11. Ilford South 41.4 Lab
12.Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull N 37.5 Lab
13. Poplar and Limehouse 35.9 Lab
14. Leicester South 34.8 Lab
15. Manchester Rusholme 33.7 (Lab)
16. Luton North 32.5 Lab
17. Stratford and Bow 32.2 (Lab)
18. Oldham West, Chadderton & Royton 32.1 Lab
19. Slough 31.1 Lab
20. Ilford North 30.6 Lab

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF HINDU RESIDENTS

2021 CENSUS

NEW BOUNDARIES

……… % ……. Winner 2019

1. Leicester East 37.6 Lab
2. Brent West 28.3 Lab
3. Harrow East 28.0 C
4. Harrow West 24.3 Lab
5. Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 17.9 C
6. Ilford N 14.3 Lab
7. Hayes and Harlington 11.8 Lab
8.Ilford South 10.8 Lab
9. Feltham and Heston 10.4 Lab
10. Brentford and Isleworth 10.3 Lab
11. Ealing Southall 10.2 Lab
12. Ealing North 9.8 Lab
13. East Ham 9.8 Lab
14. Uxbridge and South Ruislip 8.4 C
15. Watford 8.3 C
16. Leicester South 8.3 Lab
17. SW Hertfordshire 7.9 C
18. Croydon West 7.7 Lab
19. Sutton and Cheam 7.6 C
20. Slough 7.5 Lab


Maybe a few surprises here

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 19, 2023 21:15:36 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF HINDU RESIDENTS

2021 CENSUS

NEW BOUNDARIES

……… % ……. Winner 2019

1. Leicester East 37.6 Lab
2. Brent West 28.3 Lab
3. Harrow East 28.0 C
4. Harrow West 24.3 Lab
5. Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 17.9 C
6. Ilford N 14.3 Lab
7. Hayes and Harlington 11.8 Lab
8.Ilford South 10.8 Lab
9. Feltham and Heston 10.4 Lab
10. Brentford and Isleworth 10.3 Lab
11. Ealing Southall 10.2 Lab
12. Ealing North 9.8 Lab
13. East Ham 9.8 Lab
14. Uxbridge and South Ruislip 8.4 C
15. Watford 8.3 C
16. Leicester South 8.3 Lab
17. SW Hertfordshire 7.9 C
18. Croydon West 7.7 Lab
19. Sutton and Cheam 7.6 C
20. Slough 7.5 Lab


Maybe a few surprises here

Are there any figures for Sikhs please? 

[Robert Waller]

Sikhs in due course nodealbrexiteer, but you can also find for yourself in the link to the tables of bjornhattan in the first post in this thread, above ... look under the Religion tab in the footer.
Those marvellous tables are of course my source for these top 20 lists, as well as the stats I'm gradually adding to the seat profiles, so generally available, many thanks.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 19, 2023 22:12:34 GMT Robert Waller said:

Sikhs in due course nodealbrexiteer , but you can also find for yourself in the link to the tables of bjornhattan in the first post in this thread, above ... look under the Religion tab in the footer.
Those marvellous tables are of course my source for these top 20 lists, as well as the stats I'm gradually adding to the seat profiles, so generally available, many thanks.

thanks 

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF CHRISTIAN RESIDENTS

New boundaries

2021 census

..... % ...... Result 2019 incl notional

1. Sefton Central 68.8 Lab
2. Liverpool Walton 67.1 Lab
3. Knowsley 67.0 Lab
4. Liverpool West Derby 65.8 Lab
5. Makerfield 65.3 Lab
6. Bootle 64.9 Lab
7. Widnes & Halewood 64.8 Lab
8. Whitehaven & Workington 63.9 C
9. Wigan 63.8 Lab
10. Ribble Valley 63.7 C
11. South Ribble 62.8 C
12. St Helens S & Whiston 62.8 Lab
13. Liverpool Garston 62.4 Lab
14. St Helens N 62.3 Lab
15. Fylde 61.5 C
16. Wirral West 60.9 C
17. Chorley 60.8 Lab
18. West Lancashire 60.7 Lab
19. Leigh and Atherton 59.7 C gain from Lab
20. Kingswinford & S Staffordshire 59.5 C


Main correlation here, region. It takes till no. 20 for the first seat from outside the North West to appear.

[Dave Morgan]

Jul 20, 2023 9:21:14 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF CHRISTIAN RESIDENTS

New boundaries

2021 census

..... % ...... Result 2019 incl notional

1. Sefton Central 68.8 Lab
2. Liverpool Walton 67.1 Lab
3. Knowsley 67.0 Lab
4. Liverpool West Derby 65.8 Lab
5. Makerfield 65.3 Lab
6. Bootle 64.9 Lab
7. Widnes & Halewood 64.8 Lab
8. Whitehaven & Workington 63.9 C
9. Wigan 63.8 Lab
10. Ribble Valley 63.7 C
11. South Ribble 62.8 C
12. St Helens S & Whiston 62.8 Lab
13. Liverpool Garston 62.4 Lab
14. St Helens N 62.3 Lab
15. Fylde 61.5 C
16. Wirral West 60.9 C
17. Chorley 60.8 Lab
18. West Lancashire 60.7 Lab
19. Leigh and Atherton 59.7 C gain from Lab
20. Kingswinford & S Staffordshire 59.5 C


Main correlation here, region. It takes till no. 20 for the first seat from outside the North West to appear.

Fascinating. And of the 19 in the NW, only three (Whitehaven & Workington, Fylde and Ribble Valley not within the Liverpool orbit to some degree.

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF JEWISH RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

2021 census

% Result 2019/notional

1.Finchley & Golders Green 20.8 C
2. Hertsmere 16.9 C
3. Bury South 15.8 C gain from Lab
4. Hendon 14.2 C
5. Hackney N & Stoke Newington 12.6 Lab
6. Chipping Barnet 9.7 C
7. Hampstead and Highgate 7.6 Lab
8. Tottenham 4.4 Lab
9. Harrow East 4.3 C
10. Leeds NE 4.1 Lab
11. Hornsey & Friern Barnet 4.1 Lab
12. Epping Forest 3.7 C
13. Cities of London and Westminster 3.5 C
14. Ilford North 3.4 Lab
15. Gateshead Central & Whickham 2.9 Lab
16. Salford 2.8 Lab
17. Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 2.7 C
18. Altrincham & Sale West 2.1 C
19. Holborn & St Pancras 2.0 Lab
20. Southgate & Wood Green 2.0 Lab


Old Boundaries

2021 Census

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF JEWISH RESIDENTS

% Result 2019

1.Finchley & Golders Green 20.8 C
2. Hertsmere 17.0 C
3. Hendon 15.4 C
4. Hackney N & Stoke Newington 12.0 Lab
5. Bury South 10.0 C gain from Lab
6. Blackley & Broughton 8.5 Lab
7. Chipping Barnet 6.8 C
8. Hampstead and Kilburn 6.5 Lab
9. Harrow East 4.5 C
10. Leeds NE 4.1 Lab
11. Epping Forest 3.7 C
12. Ilford North 3.6 Lab
13. Hornsey & Wood Green 3.6 Lab
14. Tottenham 3.6 Lab
15. Westminster N 3.1 Lab
16. Gateshead 3.0 Lab
17. Enfield Southgate 2.6 Lab
18. Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 2.6 C
19. Holborn & St Pancras 2.6 Lab
20. Cities of London and Westminster S 2.6 C