New boundaries - statistics and table thread

[bjornhattan]

Jul 27, 2023 9:20:21 GMT spinach said:

Jul 25, 2023 21:48:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

2021 CENSUS

............ % ...... Result 2019/notional

1. Whitehaven & Workington 98.2 C
2. Torridge & Tavistock 98.2 C
3. Dwyfor Meirionnydd 98.2 PC
4. North Northumberland 98.2 C
5. Tiverton & Minehead 98.1 C
6. Penrith & Solway 98.1 C
7. Ynys Mon 98.1 C gain from Lab
8. Easington 98.1 Lab
9. North Norfolk 98.1 C gain from LD
10. Thirsk & Malton 98.1 C
11. Bridlington & The Wolds 98.1 C
12. Bishop Auckland 98.0 C gain from Lab
13. Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr 98.0 C
14. Staffordshire Moorlands 98.0 C
15. Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney 98.0 Lab
16. Louth & Horncastle 97.9 C
17. Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor 97.8 C gain from Lab
18. Blaydon & Consett 97.8 Lab
19. Clwyd East 97.8 C gain from Lab
20. South West Devon 97.8 C

So the whitest parts of England and Wales are predominantly in rural or small ex-industrial towns in the North East of England, Cumbria and Wales.

Although I can imagine many seats in Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a higher % of white residents.

I don't have figures for the new boundaries (I'd expect them to be fairly similar), but on the old boundaries seven Northern Irish constituencies have figures exceeding the 97.8% recorded in South Devon (20th place) - and four exceed the 98.2% figure for Whitehaven and Workington:

South Down 98.6
West Tyrone 98.6
East Londonderry 98.4
Strangford 98.4
North Antrim 98.0
Newry and Armargh 98.0
Mid Ulster 97.9

The most diverse seats are the four Belfast seats (probably unsurprisingly) and Fermanagh and South Tyrone (perhaps more surprisingly but due to Dungannon). But even the seat with the lowest proportion of white residents, 88.9% white Belfast South, is fairly close to the England and Wales median.

[Pete Whitehead]

Whats the deal with Dungannon?

[bjornhattan]

Jul 27, 2023 10:46:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Whats the deal with Dungannon?

Hard to say - there seem to be a lot of food processing factories around there which have attracted immigrants (I'm not sure whether they've recruited directly from abroad or whether immigrants have gone there knowing there's work). About 21% of residents in the town are now from a minority group (many being East Timorese Asians) with a further 20% being white immigrants (with significant Lithuanian and Portuguese communities). It does seem like a fairly random town to see such an influx though.

[The Bishop]

Jul 27, 2023 9:44:44 GMT jakegb said:

I would not rule out the ultimate surprise gain in the 2024/25 GE.

Except that lots of people are predicting it will be close at least, so not really *that* much of a surprise if it happens.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 27, 2023 10:59:07 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jul 27, 2023 10:46:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Whats the deal with Dungannon?

Hard to say - there seem to be a lot of food processing factories around there which have attracted immigrants (I'm not sure whether they've recruited directly from abroad or whether immigrants have gone there knowing there's work). About 21% of residents in the town are now from a minority group (many being East Timorese Asians) with a further 20% being white immigrants (with significant Lithuanian and Portuguese communities). It does seem like a fairly random town to see such an influx though.

Where are you stats for the Northern Ireland seats? They (and the Scottish ones) don't appear on the spreadsheet I have which you produced

[bjornhattan]

Jul 27, 2023 12:51:42 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 27, 2023 10:59:07 GMT bjornhattan said:

Hard to say - there seem to be a lot of food processing factories around there which have attracted immigrants (I'm not sure whether they've recruited directly from abroad or whether immigrants have gone there knowing there's work). About 21% of residents in the town are now from a minority group (many being East Timorese Asians) with a further 20% being white immigrants (with significant Lithuanian and Portuguese communities). It does seem like a fairly random town to see such an influx though.

Where are you stats for the Northern Ireland seats? They (and the Scottish ones) don't appear on the spreadsheet I have which you produced

I haven't got stats for the new boundaries yet - the Northern Irish census website does however now have figures for the old constituency boundaries (as well as things like wards and settlements) and is fully up to date.

[jakegb]

Jul 27, 2023 12:08:04 GMT The Bishop said:

Jul 27, 2023 9:44:44 GMT jakegb said:

I would not rule out the ultimate surprise gain in the 2024/25 GE.

Except that lots of people are predicting it will be close at least, so not really *that* much of a surprise if it happens.

Being close is one thing, winning is a big step further. 
The Tories still need a 6% swing to take it: a tall order in a very challenging climate for them.  So - in that respect - winning Leicester E would be one of the ultimate surprises of the forthcoming election. 

[Deleted]

Didn't Labour notionally gain four seats in 1983: Birmingham, Erdington; Crewe & Nantwich, Glasgow, Cathcart, and Liverpool, Broadgreen?

Somebody else might know more about the '83 nationals.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Yep. Three out of the four being marginal seats flipped by the boundary changes; in Crewe and Cathcart the sitting MP was re-elected anyway, while in Erdington a new candidate took the seat. Only Broadgreen was a clearcut addition of a Labour MP representing somewhere the MP used to be from a different party.

In fact the three were all slightly different. Cathcart was on a long term trend to Labour and had changed hands at the previous election. Erdington was also not out of line with similar inner-city areas - there was a swing to Labour across urban Birmingham in 1983. However in Crewe there was a distinct campaign to keep Gwyneth Dunwoody and keep a Labour MP, coupled with a feeling the Boundary Commission had conspired to get an extra Tory seat. Perhaps this led to the belief that Gwyneth Dunwoody was an exceptionally popular local MP.

[Clark]

Jul 27, 2023 9:44:44 GMT jakegb said:

Jul 27, 2023 9:24:24 GMT spinach said:

All safely held by the Labour Party apart from Harrow East.

Harrow East must be one of few numbers of minority-majority constituencies held by the Tories.

Locally, the Tories hold Slough (albeit under minority control).
Though not marginal, the Tories have also made significant inroads into Leicester East; this was highlighted by strong 2023 local election results in that particular constituency. With the right candidate, I would not rule out the ultimate surprise gain in the 2024/25 GE.

That would be a surprise if they gained Leicester East.

It's kind of sad that people there put religion ahead of what actually would make the best difference for their lives

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 27, 2023 13:06:40 GMT jakegb said:

Jul 27, 2023 12:08:04 GMT The Bishop said:

Except that lots of people are predicting it will be close at least, so not really *that* much of a surprise if it happens.

Being close is one thing, winning is a big step further. 
The Tories still need a 6% swing to take it: a tall order in a very challenging climate for them.  So - in that respect - winning Leicester E would be one of the ultimate surprises of the forthcoming election. 

Bethnal Green & Bow saw a 6% swing to the Conservatives in 1997. Bradford West was only slightly lower (and in contrast with BG&B the Tory share did not increase) but these were the only two seats which swung to the Conservatives. Similar dynamics to some extent, albeit with a different ethno-religious group involved. Not that I do expect the Conservatived to gain Leicester East - all will depend on who Labour selects to defend the seat, but if they mess that up, then it wouldn't be such a surprise given the recent local election results and other shenanigans.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 27, 2023 10:59:07 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jul 27, 2023 10:46:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Whats the deal with Dungannon?

Hard to say - there seem to be a lot of food processing factories around there which have attracted immigrants (I'm not sure whether they've recruited directly from abroad or whether immigrants have gone there knowing there's work). About 21% of residents in the town are now from a minority group (many being East Timorese Asians) with a further 20% being white immigrants (with significant Lithuanian and Portuguese communities). It does seem like a fairly random town to see such an influx though.

I don't find that site very east to use - there is not as far as I can tell a nice mapping system which shades small areas according to given variables. But from what I can tell, a couple of data zones around downtown Dungannon are majority non-white (although still overwhelmingly Christian, mostly Catholic (as I guess East Timorese would be)). That is astonishing.

[bjornhattan]

Jul 27, 2023 16:22:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 27, 2023 10:59:07 GMT bjornhattan said:

Hard to say - there seem to be a lot of food processing factories around there which have attracted immigrants (I'm not sure whether they've recruited directly from abroad or whether immigrants have gone there knowing there's work). About 21% of residents in the town are now from a minority group (many being East Timorese Asians) with a further 20% being white immigrants (with significant Lithuanian and Portuguese communities). It does seem like a fairly random town to see such an influx though.

I don't find that site very east to use - there is not as far as I can tell a nice mapping system which shades small areas according to given variables. But from what I can tell, a couple of data zones around downtown Dungannon are majority non-white (although still overwhelmingly Christian, mostly Catholic (as I guess East Timorese would be)). That is astonishing.

I found three - the one covering the northern part of the town centre and Greer's Road is 44% white, and the ones covering the southern part of the town centre and out towards Northland Row as well as the one covering the estate around Windmill Drive were 46% white. Interestingly these are all diverse in terms of minorities - generally the numbers identifying as Asian, Black, Mixed, and Other are all quite significant and white residents are clearly the largest group - probably partly because no single community dominates in the town and also because East Timorese identity probably doesn't map neatly onto our census categories.

[Pete Whitehead]

I wasn't able to find more details figures on Black, Asian etc but will have more of a play with that site later - I hadn't looked at it at all before today. It gives a whole new meaning to the term 'bog wog' lol

[pl]

Jul 27, 2023 16:22:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 27, 2023 10:59:07 GMT bjornhattan said:

Hard to say - there seem to be a lot of food processing factories around there which have attracted immigrants (I'm not sure whether they've recruited directly from abroad or whether immigrants have gone there knowing there's work). About 21% of residents in the town are now from a minority group (many being East Timorese Asians) with a further 20% being white immigrants (with significant Lithuanian and Portuguese communities). It does seem like a fairly random town to see such an influx though.

I don't find that site very east to use - there is not as far as I can tell a nice mapping system which shades small areas according to given variables. But from what I can tell, a couple of data zones around downtown Dungannon are majority non-white (although still overwhelmingly Christian, mostly Catholic (as I guess East Timorese would be)). That is astonishing.

Apparently the East Timorese were first recruited to Dungannon via job fairs in Portugal, and are heavily in the butchery trade. Population numbers I've seen are 894 East Timoreese in Northern Ireland in 2011, but 1,777 in Dungannon by 2021. I imagine a number of them are probably Portuguese nationals as well - not sure how that complicates all the numbers.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 27, 2023 16:52:08 GMT pl said:

Jul 27, 2023 16:22:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don't find that site very east to use - there is not as far as I can tell a nice mapping system which shades small areas according to given variables. But from what I can tell, a couple of data zones around downtown Dungannon are majority non-white (although still overwhelmingly Christian, mostly Catholic (as I guess East Timorese would be)). That is astonishing.

Apparently the East Timorese were first recruited to Dungannon via job fairs in Portugal, and are heavily in the butchery trade. Population numbers I've seen are 894 East Timoreese in Northern Ireland in 2011, but 1,777 in Dungannon by 2021. I imagine a number of them are probably Portuguese nationals as well - not sure how that complicates all the numbers.

I wonder if some of the other groups are via Portugal, ie Angolans etc

[pl]

Jul 27, 2023 16:55:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 27, 2023 16:52:08 GMT pl said:

Apparently the East Timorese were first recruited to Dungannon via job fairs in Portugal, and are heavily in the butchery trade. Population numbers I've seen are 894 East Timoreese in Northern Ireland in 2011, but 1,777 in Dungannon by 2021. I imagine a number of them are probably Portuguese nationals as well - not sure how that complicates all the numbers.

I wonder if some of the other groups are via Portugal, ie Angolans etc

Some will likely be like the Latin Americans in London. Either have an EU passport (Spanish/Italian/Portuguese) before coming directly to Britain or get a work permit for Spain/Portugal to get a passport after five years which gave you free movement to the UK. Mind you, chain migration/family reunification was also very likely.

[greenhert]

Jul 25, 2023 21:48:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

2021 CENSUS

............ % ...... Result 2019/notional

1. Whitehaven & Workington 98.2 C
2. Torridge & Tavistock 98.2 C
3. Dwyfor Meirionnydd 98.2 PC
4. North Northumberland 98.2 C
5. Tiverton & Minehead 98.1 C
6. Penrith & Solway 98.1 C
7. Ynys Mon 98.1 C gain from Lab
8. Easington 98.1 Lab
9. North Norfolk 98.1 C gain from LD
10. Thirsk & Malton 98.1 C
11. Bridlington & The Wolds 98.1 C
12. Bishop Auckland 98.0 C gain from Lab
13. Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr 98.0 C
14. Staffordshire Moorlands 98.0 C
15. Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney 98.0 Lab
16. Louth & Horncastle 97.9 C
17. Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor 97.8 C gain from Lab
18. Blaydon & Consett 97.8 Lab
19. Clwyd East 97.8 C gain from Lab
20. South West Devon 97.8 C

Strong correlation with % of voters aged over 65 as well. 

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The Labour target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures

Rank	Constituency	Held by	Lab place†	Lab behind %	Maj. ††
1	Burnley	C		0.27	127
2	Leigh and Atherton	C		0.66	293
3	High Peak	C		1.09	590
4	Bangor Aberconwy	C		1.55	749
5	Wolverhampton West	C		1.83	934
6	Bury South	C		1.88	935
7	Bury North	C		2.4	1,282
8	Bolton North East	C		2.56	1,278
9	Watford	C		2.69	1,300
10	Chingford and Woodford Green	C		2.94	1,604
11	Wycombe	C		3.19	1,494
12	Birmingham Northfield	C		3.38	1,478
13	Leeds North West	C		3.59	2,001
14	Stroud	C		4.07	2,467
15	Keighley and Ilkley	C		4.22	2,218
16	Stoke-on-Trent Central	C		4.22	1,715
17	Whitehaven and Workington	C		4.34	2,144
18	Lothian East	SNP		4.35	2,207
19	Gedling	C		4.45	2,407
20	Walsall and Bloxwich	C		4.79	2,186
21	Peterborough	C		4.94	2,333
22	Vale of Glamorgan	C		5.13	2,566
23	West Bromwich	C		5.2	2,150
24	Mid Cheshire	C		5.32	2,494
25	Wakefield and Rothwell	C		5.35	2,626
26	Ynys Môn	C		5.38	1,968
27	Derby North	C		5.4	2,540
28	Bridgend	C		5.47	2,553
29	Clwyd North	C		5.53	2,834
30	Lancaster and Wyre	C		6.1	3,012
31	Hastings and Rye	C		6.72	3,532
32	Eltham and Chislehurst	C		6.74	3,444
33	Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	SNP		6.83	3,220
34	Lincoln	C		6.94	3,514
35	Hyndburn	C		6.96	2,951
36	Broxtowe	C		7.16	3,819
37	Chipping Barnet	C		7.2	4,209
38	Northampton North	C		7.7	3,932
39	Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor	C		7.86	3,408
40	Hendon	C		8.03	3,661
41	Truro and Falmouth	C		8.08	4,459
42	Wrexham	C		8.36	3,939
43	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	C		8.71	3,626
44	Blackpool South	C		8.72	3,700
45	Calder Valley	C		9.05	5,107
46	Milton Keynes Central	C		9.41	4,952
47	Southampton Itchen	C		9.49	4,498
48	Clwyd East	C		10	5,284
49	Glasgow North East	SNP		10.02	4,277
50	Ceredigion Preseli	PC	Third	10.28	1,443
51	Darlington	C		10.73	4,968
52	Redcar	C		10.91	4,878
53	Ipswich	C		11.05	5,479
54	Coatbridge and Bellshill	SNP		11.08	5,084
55	Altrincham and Sale West	C		11.21	6,139
56	Swindon South	C		11.41	5,650
57	Cities of London and Westminster	C		11.47	5,976
58	Airdrie and Shotts	SNP		11.49	5,324
59	Bolsover	C		11.54	5,273
60	Shipley	C		11.56	6,242
61	Crewe and Nantwich	C		11.59	5,816
62	Loughborough	C		11.8	6,091
63	Midlothian	SNP		11.83	5,705
64	Rutherglen	SNP		11.95	5,855
65	Tipton and Wednesbury	C		12.29	4,693
66	Rushcliffe	C		12.36	7,354
67	Norwich North	C		12.62	6,365
68	Spen Valley	C		12.85	6,064
69	Glasgow South West	SNP		12.86	5,533
70	Milton Keynes North	C		13.1	6,327
71	Worcester	C		13.28	6,758
72	Glasgow North	SNP		13.44	5,582
73	Rother Valley	C		13.49	6,135
74	Southport	C		13.59	6,771
75	Ashfield	C	Third	13.63	5,303
76	Shrewsbury	C		13.92	7,175
77	East Worthing and Shoreham	C		14.07	7,474
78	Caerfyrddin	C	Third	14.08	4,529
79	Penistone and Stocksbridge	C		14.56	7,210
80	Barrow and Furness	C		14.86	7,436
81	Colne Valley	C		14.99	7,761
82	Filton and Bradley Stoke	C		15.23	7,842
83	Glasgow East	SNP		15.24	6,276
84	Uxbridge and South Ruislip	C		15.63	7,939
85	Mid and South Pembrokeshire	C		15.68	8,621
86	East Thanet	C		15.83	7,585
87	Corby and East Northamptonshire	C		16.1	8,676
88	Leeds South West and Morley	C		16.32	7,114
89	Hamilton and Clyde Valley	SNP		16.36	7,758
90	Bishop Auckland	C		16.39	8,113
91	Chelsea and Fulham	C		16.42	8,993
92	Crawley	C		16.75	8,360
93	Na h-Eileanan an Iar	SNP		16.84	2,438
94	Harrow East	C		17.19	8,987
95	South Ribble	C		17.3	8,515
96	Newcastle-under-Lyme	C		17.45	8,265
97	Bournemouth East	C		17.87	8,817
98	Stevenage	C		17.96	8,562
99	Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	SNP		18.46	8,294
100	Glasgow South	SNP		18.85	9,151
101	Wimbledon	C	Third	18.96	839
102	Camborne and Redruth	C		19.09	9,848
103	Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	SNP		19.28	8,933
104	Stoke-on-Trent North	C		19.3	8,077
105	Gloucester	C		19.34	9,880
106	Finchley and Golders Green	C	Third	19.43	6,629
107	York Outer	C		19.69	10,782
108	Rossendale and Darwen	C		19.7	9,834
109	Wolverhampton North East	C		19.83	7,847
110	Macclesfield	C		19.88	10,711
111	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	C		20.22	10,119
112	Monmouthshire	C		20.5	10,837
113	Glasgow West	SNP		20.58	9,728
114	Scarborough and Whitby	C		20.65	10,270
115	Dunfermline and Dollar	SNP		20.72	10,073
116	Welwyn Hatfield	C		20.8	10,773
117	Hitchin	C		20.84	11,264
118	West Dunbartonshire	SNP		21.11	9,841
119	Bolton West	C		21.29	10,619
120	Scunthorpe	C		21.44	10,133
121	Erewash	C		21.73	10,606
122	Bournemouth West	C		21.73	9,941
123	Carlisle	C		22.03	11,290
124	Edinburgh North and Leith	SNP		22.06	12,983
125	Earley and Woodley	C		22.1	11,293
126	Glenrothes and Mid Fife	SNP		22.12	9,352
127	Colchester	C		22.29	10,940
128	Stockton West	C		22.57	11,749
129	Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	SNP		22.57	11,796
130	Hexham	C		22.59	12,186
131	Ossett and Denby Dale	C		22.69	11,027
132	Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	C		22.87	10,299
133	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	PC	Third	22.9	9,880
134	Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	C		23.41	10,085
135	Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	C		23.42	9,759
136	Pendle and Clitheroe	C		23.85	11,568
137	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	SNP		23.92	11,023
138	Basingstoke	C		24.03	12,301
139	Bathgate and Linlithgow	SNP	Third	24.21	8,671
140	Dover and Deal	C		24.26	12,421
141	Penrith and Solway	C		24.67	13,760
142	Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	SNP		24.9	12,005
143	Telford	C		25.04	10,900
144	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	SNP		25.13	11,753
145	Livingston	SNP		25.22	12,424
146	Buckingham and Bletchley	C		25.37	13,345
147	East Kilbride and Strathaven	SNP		25.48	13,169
148	Morecambe and Lunesdale	C		25.49	14,188
149	North East Derbyshire	C		26.08	12,902
150	Rugby	C		26.2	13,395
151	Croydon South	C		26.34	13,408
152	Bassetlaw	C		26.4	12,588
153	Worthing West	C		26.47	13,912
154	Stafford	C		26.74	13,720
155	Hemel Hempstead	C		26.82	13,161
156	Northampton South	C		26.86	13,324
157	Thurrock	C		26.96	11,962
158	Banbury	C		27.16	13,799
159	Plymouth Moor View	C		27.54	13,262
160	Halesowen	C		27.63	12,082
161	Southend East and Rochford	C		27.67	11,942
162	Swindon North	C		27.96	13,250
163	Frome and East Somerset	C	Third	28.12	12,395
164	Selby	C		28.13	14,838
165	South Cambridgeshire	C	Third	28.4	1,498
166	Mid Dunbartonshire	SNP	Fourth	28.45	1,986
167	North Somerset	C		28.46	16,184
168	North East Somerset and Hanham	C		28.53	16,389
169	Aylesbury	C		28.75	16,640
170	Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	C		28.83	14,765
171	St Austell and Newquay	C		28.93	15,942
172	Weston-super-Mare	C		29.02	13,310
173	Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	C	Third	29.08	9,091
174	Nuneaton	C		29.09	13,144
175	Bromley and Biggin Hill	C		29.31	14,380
176	Hazel Grove	C	Third	29.31	4,219
177	Edinburgh West	L Dem	Fourth	29.53	2,888
178	Folkestone and Hythe	C		29.55	13,239
179	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	C		29.68	15,608
180	Burton and Uttoxeter	C		29.74	14,496
181	Carshalton and Wallington	C	Third	30.02	629
182	Southend West and Leigh	C		30.05	15,454
183	Bracknell	C		30.13	14,129
184	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	SNP	Third	30.16	2,329
185	Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	C		30.25	15,810
186	Rochester and Strood	C		30.36	13,553
187	Isle of Wight West	C		30.49	11,618
188	Central Devon	C		30.5	17,300
189	Forest of Dean	C		30.83	15,869
190	Sherwood Forest	C		31.26	16,290
191	Woking	C	Third	31.53	8,683
192	Dartford	C		31.63	14,704
193	Bexleyheath and Crayford	C		31.79	15,038
194	Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard	C		31.87	15,386
195	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	SNP	Third	31.93	12,659
196	Hertford and Stortford	C		32.01	17,806
197	Central Ayrshire	SNP	Third	32.03	5,304
198	Dudley	C		32.23	13,609
199	Ribble Valley	C		32.23	16,839
200	St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire	C	Third	32.48	12,250
201	East Renfrewshire	SNP	Third	32.56	5,426
202	Mid Derbyshire	C		32.6	16,816
203	Dundee Central	SNP		32.63	15,221
204	Harwich and North Essex	C		32.64	17,651
205	Stourbridge	C		32.68	15,133
206	Lowestoft	C		32.72	14,850
207	Gravesham	C		32.76	15,581
208	North Northumberland	C		32.81	17,306
209	North East Hertfordshire	C		32.88	18,189
210	Gillingham and Rainham	C		32.9	15,119
211	Stoke-on-Trent South	C		32.9	15,393
212	South Norfolk	C		33.12	17,175
213	Mid Sussex	C	Third	33.28	13,665
214	Edinburgh South West	SNP	Third	33.29	11,982
215	Isle of Wight East	C		33.35	12,119
216	Kettering	C		33.37	17,363
217	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	SNP	Fourth	33.57	2,788
218	Cheadle	C	Third	33.71	2,336
219	Didcot and Wantage	C	Third	33.74	10,023
220	Reading West and Mid Berkshire	C		33.89	16,758
221	Mansfield	C		34.03	16,247
222	Wellingborough and Rushden	C		34.09	16,038
223	Portsmouth North	C		34.37	15,780
224	Brighton Pavilion	GP		34.38	19,630
225	South Dorset	C		34.42	18,147
226	Dumfries and Galloway	C	Third	34.43	1,556
227	North Ayrshire and Arran	SNP	Third	34.63	8,521
228	Aldershot	C		34.7	17,985
229	Tatton	C		34.81	19,281
230	Derbyshire Dales	C		34.85	18,797
231	South Derbyshire	C		34.92	16,483
232	Suffolk Coastal	C		35.05	18,355
233	Harlow	C		35.25	16,694
234	Ashford	C		35.43	17,211
235	Runnymede and Weybridge	C	Third	35.47	16,072
236	North East Fife	SNP	Fourth	35.48	728
237	Sutton and Cheam	C	Third	35.72	8,351
238	South West Hertfordshire	C	Third	36.1	17,623
239	North West Cambridgeshire	C		36.21	17,032
240	Beverley and Holderness	C		36.33	17,976
241	Windsor	C		36.47	18,247
242	Aberdeen South	SNP	Fourth	36.49	5,463
243	Salisbury	C	Third	36.51	18,848
244	South Devon	C	Third	36.54	13,719
245	Congleton	C		36.54	18,203
246	Chelmsford	C	Third	36.56	15,416
247	Mid Leicestershire	C		36.58	20,188
248	North West Leicestershire	C		36.66	18,548
249	Guildford	C	Third	36.7	3,117
250	Epsom and Ewell	C	Third	36.76	16,856
251	South West Wiltshire	C		36.79	17,378
252	Sutton Coldfield	C		36.83	19,272
253	Amber Valley	C		37.03	16,891
254	Bicester and Woodstock	C	Third	37.06	14,205
255	Fylde	C		37.06	19,254
256	Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	SNP	Fourth	37.08	4,897
257	Spelthorne	C		37.15	18,393
258	Bridgwater	C		37.16	16,724
259	Staffordshire Moorlands	C		37.41	17,659
260	Broadland and Fakenham	C		37.54	19,825
261	Chester South and Eddisbury	C		37.72	20,826
262	Newton Abbot	C	Third	37.84	17,456
263	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	C	Fourth	38.09	843
264	Poole	C		38.13	18,608
265	Orkney and Shetland	L Dem	Fourth	38.13	2,507
266	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	C	Third	38.17	4,338
267	Alloa and Grangemouth	SNP	Third	38.17	12,727
268	Romford	C		38.33	18,536
269	Huntingdon	C		38.43	21,645
270	South East Cornwall	C		38.71	20,225
271	Redditch	C		38.78	18,423
272	Reigate	C	Third	38.9	19,220
273	North Warwickshire and Bedworth	C		39.11	17,956
274	Newark	C		39.17	21,697
275	Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	SNP		39.28	12,865
276	North Shropshire	C	Fourth	39.3	20,543
277	Exmouth and Exeter East	C	Third	39.31	8,809
278	Ely and East Cambridgeshire	C	Third	39.59	13,449
279	Skipton and Ripon	C		39.66	22,517
280	Falkirk	SNP	Third	39.68	12,578
281	Melton and Syston	C		39.76	19,004
282	St Ives	C	Third	39.91	5,227
283	Mid Bedfordshire	C		39.96	20,509
284	Herne Bay and Sandwich	C		39.97	20,372
285	Kenilworth and Southam	C		39.98	22,303
286	Maidstone and Malling	C	Third	40.01	19,448
287	Old Bexley and Sidcup	C		40.04	20,769
288	Central Suffolk and North Ipswich	C		40.1	20,213
289	Horsham	C	Third	40.14	17,353
290	Eastbourne	C	Third	40.14	2,168
291	Eastleigh	C	Third	40.21	8,641
292	Broxbourne	C		40.26	19,192
293	Perth and Kinross-shire	SNP	Fourth	40.27	2,364
294	Tunbridge Wells	C	Third	40.29	14,645
295	The Wrekin	C		40.38	21,173
296	Oxford West and Abingdon	L Dem	Third	40.39	9,577
297	Great Yarmouth	C		40.64	17,663
298	Arbroath and Broughty Ferry	SNP	Third	40.73	10,777
299	Bath	L Dem	Third	40.89	12,125
300	Aberdeen North	SNP	Third	40.92	14,210
301	Bexhill and Battle	C		40.98	20,384
302	St Albans	L Dem	Third	41.11	5,905
303	South West Devon	C		41.16	23,090
304	Dorking and Horley	C	Third	41.23	10,381
305	Solihull West and Shirley	C		41.45	20,798
306	Chatham and Aylesford	C		41.46	18,992
307	Lewes	C	Third	41.47	4,126
308	Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	SNP	Fourth	41.47	2,906
309	Mid Norfolk	C		41.51	20,388
310	Meriden and Solihull East	C		41.56	20,270
311	Harpenden and Berkhamsted	C	Third	41.67	15,044
312	Hereford and South Herefordshire	C		41.76	19,321
313	South Basildon and East Thurrock	C		41.88	18,731
314	Torridge and Tavistock	C	Third	41.98	22,899
315	North Bedfordshire	C		42.05	23,631
316	Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket	C		42.08	22,085
317	Orpington	C		42.13	20,627
318	West Suffolk	C		42.15	20,797
319	Stirling and Strathallan	SNP	Third	42.18	8,556
320	Wyre Forest	C		42.35	21,413
321	Harrogate and Knaresborough	C	Third	42.35	8,787
322	Maidenhead	C	Third	42.37	17,101
323	South Northamptonshire	C		42.4	23,671
324	Tewkesbury	C	Third	42.41	19,443
325	Chesham and Amersham	C	Third	42.43	18,216
326	Kingston and Surbiton	L Dem	Third	42.44	11,174
327	Gordon and Buchan	C	Fourth	42.46	3,224
328	Hornchurch and Upminster	C		42.57	21,735
329	Bromsgrove	C		42.57	23,106
330	Witney	C	Third	42.66	15,674
331	Faversham and Mid Kent	C		42.76	20,618
332	North Cotswolds	C	Third	42.82	20,997
333	South Suffolk	C		42.86	21,473
334	Cannock Chase	C		42.92	19,879
335	Lichfield	C		43.09	22,609
336	North West Hampshire	C	Third	43.18	21,507
337	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	C		43.2	22,682
338	Westmorland and Lonsdale	C	Third	43.24	5,140
339	Chichester	C	Third	43.38	19,622
340	North West Norfolk	C		43.4	21,077
341	Tamworth	C		43.42	20,663
342	Waveney Valley	C		43.61	22,364
343	Cheltenham	C	Third	43.65	1,421
344	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	C	Fourth	43.72	5,148
345	Hertsmere	C		43.76	22,980
346	Taunton and Wellington	C	Third	44.08	8,536
347	Epping Forest	C		44.11	22,173
348	Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	C	Fourth	44.15	2,399
349	West Worcestershire	C	Third	44.17	24,499
350	Basildon and Billericay	C		44.29	20,749
351	Godalming and Ash	C	Third	44.48	10,720
352	Goole and Pocklington	C		44.69	22,302
353	Thirsk and Malton	C		44.71	23,337
354	Chippenham	C	Third	44.71	13,200
355	Esher and Walton	C	Third	44.72	3,015
356	Arundel and South Downs	C	Third	44.76	24,105
357	East Grinstead and Uckfield	C	Third	44.9	20,291
358	West Dorset	C	Third	44.91	12,388
359	Gainsborough	C		45.14	22,172
360	Wells and Mendip Hills	C	Third	45.36	14,295
361	Fareham and Waterlooville	C	Third	45.39	21,276
362	Henley and Thame	C	Third	45.55	11,901
363	Beaconsfield	C	Third	45.6	13,772
364	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	C		45.63	21,337
365	Wokingham	C	Third	45.63	12,750
366	Romsey and Southampton North	C	Third	45.73	16,251
367	Melksham and Devizes	C	Third	45.8	17,028
368	Grantham and Bourne	C		45.84	22,393
369	Torbay	C	Third	46.08	17,751
370	Angus and Perthshire Glens	SNP	Fourth	46.17	6,005
371	Honiton and Sidmouth	C		46.17	26,229
372	Mid Buckinghamshire	C	Third	46.18	22,648
373	South Leicestershire	C		46.61	25,534
374	Bridlington and the Wolds	C		46.69	21,685
375	East Hampshire	C	Third	46.71	20,200
376	Daventry	C		46.72	26,612
377	Richmond and Northallerton	C		46.9	24,331
378	Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge	C		46.9	21,922
379	Tiverton and Minehead	C	Third	47.01	20,665
380	East Surrey	C	Third	47.16	20,565
381	South Cotswolds	C	Third	47.24	16,092
382	North Herefordshire	C		47.27	25,719
383	Newbury	C	Third	47.37	11,460
384	Havant	C		47.42	21,792
385	North Devon	C	Third	47.47	14,813
386	Twickenham	L Dem	Third	47.58	13,074
387	Sleaford and North Hykeham	C		47.89	24,680
388	North West Essex	C	Third	47.92	23,227
389	Glastonbury and Somerton	C	Third	47.96	14,183
390	Gosport	C		48.04	23,278
391	Aldridge-Brownhills	C		48.09	22,758
392	Sevenoaks	C	Third	48.21	21,793
393	Richmond Park	L Dem	Third	48.38	7,725
394	Surrey Heath	C	Third	48.48	15,552
395	Droitwich and Evesham	C		48.65	25,631
396	Hamble Valley	C	Third	48.66	23,488
397	Rutland and Stamford	C	Third	48.67	25,537
398	Sussex Weald	C	Third	48.84	23,164
399	Stratford-on-Avon	C	Third	48.85	19,020
400	Winchester	C	Third	49.26	9,050
401	Witham	C		49.26	25,669
402	Braintree	C		49.28	25,466
403	North Cornwall	C	Third	49.45	15,783
404	South Shropshire	C		49.6	28,636
405	Tonbridge	C		49.68	27,052
406	New Forest East	C		49.72	25,251
407	Thornbury and Yate	C	Third	49.75	14,538
408	Wetherby and Easingwold	C		49.94	27,164
409	East Wiltshire	C		50.06	24,523
410	South West Norfolk	C		50.32	24,180
411	Hinckley and Bosworth	C	Third	50.42	22,851
412	New Forest West	C	Third	50.73	24,403
413	North Norfolk	C	Third	50.74	14,492
414	North East Hampshire	C	Third	51.68	22,433
415	Brigg and Immingham	C		51.74	24,444
416	North Dorset	C	Third	51.82	23,195
417	Yeovil	C	Third	51.84	14,638
418	Farnham and Bordon	C	Third	52.58	13,577
419	Christchurch	C	Third	52.73	25,034
420	Mid Dorset and North Poole	C	Third	52.79	16,570
421	Louth and Horncastle	C		54.74	27,883
422	Brentwood and Ongar	C		54.86	28,974
423	Clacton	C		56.31	25,717
424	Rayleigh and Wickford	C		57.26	30,348
425	Kingswinford and South Staffordshire	C		57.51	29,355
426	North East Cambridgeshire	C		57.82	25,779
427	Weald of Kent	C		57.91	28,751
428	Maldon	C		59.59	32,001
429	Castle Point	C		59.73	27,009
430	Boston and Skegness	C		60.87	27,402
431	South Holland and the Deepings	C		62.71	30,838

† If not second
†† Numerical majority over second place candidate, whether or not Labour

[froome]

Very interesting list. There are a few there in positions I find surprising, such as Eltham & Chislehurst at 32.

I cannot find Beckenham & Penge listed. Has it been missed out by mistake? It should be notionally Conservative but must be on Labour's radar.