New boundaries - statistics and table thread

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 20, 2024 13:17:59 GMT froome said:

I cannot find Beckenham & Penge listed. Has it been missed out by mistake? It should be notionally Conservative but must be on Labour's radar.

Beckenham and Penge is notionally Labour on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News figures:

Lab 24,118
C 23,487
L Dem 9,657
GP 2,416
BxP 464

Lab maj 631 (1.05%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Jan 20, 2024 12:32:45 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The Labour target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures

Rank	Constituency	Held by	Lab place†	Lab behind %	Maj. ††
1	Burnley	C		0.27	127
2	Leigh and Atherton	C		0.66	293
3	High Peak	C		1.09	590
4	Bangor Aberconwy	C		1.55	749
5	Wolverhampton West	C		1.83	934
6	Bury South	C		1.88	935
7	Bury North	C		2.4	1,282
8	Bolton North East	C		2.56	1,278
9	Watford	C		2.69	1,300
10	Chingford and Woodford Green	C		2.94	1,604
11	Wycombe	C		3.19	1,494
12	Birmingham Northfield	C		3.38	1,478
13	Leeds North West	C		3.59	2,001
14	Stroud	C		4.07	2,467
15	Keighley and Ilkley	C		4.22	2,218
16	Stoke-on-Trent Central	C		4.22	1,715
17	Whitehaven and Workington	C		4.34	2,144
18	Lothian East	SNP		4.35	2,207
19	Gedling	C		4.45	2,407
20	Walsall and Bloxwich	C		4.79	2,186
21	Peterborough	C		4.94	2,333
22	Vale of Glamorgan	C		5.13	2,566
23	West Bromwich	C		5.2	2,150
24	Mid Cheshire	C		5.32	2,494
25	Wakefield and Rothwell	C		5.35	2,626
26	Ynys Môn	C		5.38	1,968
27	Derby North	C		5.4	2,540
28	Bridgend	C		5.47	2,553
29	Clwyd North	C		5.53	2,834
30	Lancaster and Wyre	C		6.1	3,012
31	Hastings and Rye	C		6.72	3,532
32	Eltham and Chislehurst	C		6.74	3,444
33	Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	SNP		6.83	3,220
34	Lincoln	C		6.94	3,514
35	Hyndburn	C		6.96	2,951
36	Broxtowe	C		7.16	3,819
37	Chipping Barnet	C		7.2	4,209
38	Northampton North	C		7.7	3,932
39	Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor	C		7.86	3,408
40	Hendon	C		8.03	3,661
41	Truro and Falmouth	C		8.08	4,459
42	Wrexham	C		8.36	3,939
43	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	C		8.71	3,626
44	Blackpool South	C		8.72	3,700
45	Calder Valley	C		9.05	5,107
46	Milton Keynes Central	C		9.41	4,952
47	Southampton Itchen	C		9.49	4,498
48	Clwyd East	C		10	5,284
49	Glasgow North East	SNP		10.02	4,277
50	Ceredigion Preseli	PC	Third	10.28	1,443
51	Darlington	C		10.73	4,968
52	Redcar	C		10.91	4,878
53	Ipswich	C		11.05	5,479
54	Coatbridge and Bellshill	SNP		11.08	5,084
55	Altrincham and Sale West	C		11.21	6,139
56	Swindon South	C		11.41	5,650
57	Cities of London and Westminster	C		11.47	5,976
58	Airdrie and Shotts	SNP		11.49	5,324
59	Bolsover	C		11.54	5,273
60	Shipley	C		11.56	6,242
61	Crewe and Nantwich	C		11.59	5,816
62	Loughborough	C		11.8	6,091
63	Midlothian	SNP		11.83	5,705
64	Rutherglen	SNP		11.95	5,855
65	Tipton and Wednesbury	C		12.29	4,693
66	Rushcliffe	C		12.36	7,354
67	Norwich North	C		12.62	6,365
68	Spen Valley	C		12.85	6,064
69	Glasgow South West	SNP		12.86	5,533
70	Milton Keynes North	C		13.1	6,327
71	Worcester	C		13.28	6,758
72	Glasgow North	SNP		13.44	5,582
73	Rother Valley	C		13.49	6,135
74	Southport	C		13.59	6,771
75	Ashfield	C	Third	13.63	5,303
76	Shrewsbury	C		13.92	7,175
77	East Worthing and Shoreham	C		14.07	7,474
78	Caerfyrddin	C	Third	14.08	4,529
79	Penistone and Stocksbridge	C		14.56	7,210
80	Barrow and Furness	C		14.86	7,436
81	Colne Valley	C		14.99	7,761
82	Filton and Bradley Stoke	C		15.23	7,842
83	Glasgow East	SNP		15.24	6,276
84	Uxbridge and South Ruislip	C		15.63	7,939
85	Mid and South Pembrokeshire	C		15.68	8,621
86	East Thanet	C		15.83	7,585
87	Corby and East Northamptonshire	C		16.1	8,676
88	Leeds South West and Morley	C		16.32	7,114
89	Hamilton and Clyde Valley	SNP		16.36	7,758
90	Bishop Auckland	C		16.39	8,113
91	Chelsea and Fulham	C		16.42	8,993
92	Crawley	C		16.75	8,360
93	Na h-Eileanan an Iar	SNP		16.84	2,438
94	Harrow East	C		17.19	8,987
95	South Ribble	C		17.3	8,515
96	Newcastle-under-Lyme	C		17.45	8,265
97	Bournemouth East	C		17.87	8,817
98	Stevenage	C		17.96	8,562
99	Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	SNP		18.46	8,294
100	Glasgow South	SNP		18.85	9,151
101	Wimbledon	C	Third	18.96	839
102	Camborne and Redruth	C		19.09	9,848
103	Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	SNP		19.28	8,933
104	Stoke-on-Trent North	C		19.3	8,077
105	Gloucester	C		19.34	9,880
106	Finchley and Golders Green	C	Third	19.43	6,629
107	York Outer	C		19.69	10,782
108	Rossendale and Darwen	C		19.7	9,834
109	Wolverhampton North East	C		19.83	7,847
110	Macclesfield	C		19.88	10,711
111	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	C		20.22	10,119
112	Monmouthshire	C		20.5	10,837
113	Glasgow West	SNP		20.58	9,728
114	Scarborough and Whitby	C		20.65	10,270
115	Dunfermline and Dollar	SNP		20.72	10,073
116	Welwyn Hatfield	C		20.8	10,773
117	Hitchin	C		20.84	11,264
118	West Dunbartonshire	SNP		21.11	9,841
119	Bolton West	C		21.29	10,619
120	Scunthorpe	C		21.44	10,133
121	Erewash	C		21.73	10,606
122	Bournemouth West	C		21.73	9,941
123	Carlisle	C		22.03	11,290
124	Edinburgh North and Leith	SNP		22.06	12,983
125	Earley and Woodley	C		22.1	11,293
126	Glenrothes and Mid Fife	SNP		22.12	9,352
127	Colchester	C		22.29	10,940
128	Stockton West	C		22.57	11,749
129	Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	SNP		22.57	11,796
130	Hexham	C		22.59	12,186
131	Ossett and Denby Dale	C		22.69	11,027
132	Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	C		22.87	10,299
133	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	PC	Third	22.9	9,880
134	Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme	C		23.41	10,085
135	Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes	C		23.42	9,759
136	Pendle and Clitheroe	C		23.85	11,568
137	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	SNP		23.92	11,023
138	Basingstoke	C		24.03	12,301
139	Bathgate and Linlithgow	SNP	Third	24.21	8,671
140	Dover and Deal	C		24.26	12,421
141	Penrith and Solway	C		24.67	13,760
142	Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	SNP		24.9	12,005
143	Telford	C		25.04	10,900
144	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	SNP		25.13	11,753
145	Livingston	SNP		25.22	12,424
146	Buckingham and Bletchley	C		25.37	13,345
147	East Kilbride and Strathaven	SNP		25.48	13,169
148	Morecambe and Lunesdale	C		25.49	14,188
149	North East Derbyshire	C		26.08	12,902
150	Rugby	C		26.2	13,395
151	Croydon South	C		26.34	13,408
152	Bassetlaw	C		26.4	12,588
153	Worthing West	C		26.47	13,912
154	Stafford	C		26.74	13,720
155	Hemel Hempstead	C		26.82	13,161
156	Northampton South	C		26.86	13,324
157	Thurrock	C		26.96	11,962
158	Banbury	C		27.16	13,799
159	Plymouth Moor View	C		27.54	13,262
160	Halesowen	C		27.63	12,082
161	Southend East and Rochford	C		27.67	11,942
162	Swindon North	C		27.96	13,250
163	Frome and East Somerset	C	Third	28.12	12,395
164	Selby	C		28.13	14,838
165	South Cambridgeshire	C	Third	28.4	1,498
166	Mid Dunbartonshire	SNP	Fourth	28.45	1,986
167	North Somerset	C		28.46	16,184
168	North East Somerset and Hanham	C		28.53	16,389
169	Aylesbury	C		28.75	16,640
170	Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr	C		28.83	14,765
171	St Austell and Newquay	C		28.93	15,942
172	Weston-super-Mare	C		29.02	13,310
173	Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	C	Third	29.08	9,091
174	Nuneaton	C		29.09	13,144
175	Bromley and Biggin Hill	C		29.31	14,380
176	Hazel Grove	C	Third	29.31	4,219
177	Edinburgh West	L Dem	Fourth	29.53	2,888
178	Folkestone and Hythe	C		29.55	13,239
179	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	C		29.68	15,608
180	Burton and Uttoxeter	C		29.74	14,496
181	Carshalton and Wallington	C	Third	30.02	629
182	Southend West and Leigh	C		30.05	15,454
183	Bracknell	C		30.13	14,129
184	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	SNP	Third	30.16	2,329
185	Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	C		30.25	15,810
186	Rochester and Strood	C		30.36	13,553
187	Isle of Wight West	C		30.49	11,618
188	Central Devon	C		30.5	17,300
189	Forest of Dean	C		30.83	15,869
190	Sherwood Forest	C		31.26	16,290
191	Woking	C	Third	31.53	8,683
192	Dartford	C		31.63	14,704
193	Bexleyheath and Crayford	C		31.79	15,038
194	Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard	C		31.87	15,386
195	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	SNP	Third	31.93	12,659
196	Hertford and Stortford	C		32.01	17,806
197	Central Ayrshire	SNP	Third	32.03	5,304
198	Dudley	C		32.23	13,609
199	Ribble Valley	C		32.23	16,839
200	St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire	C	Third	32.48	12,250
201	East Renfrewshire	SNP	Third	32.56	5,426
202	Mid Derbyshire	C		32.6	16,816
203	Dundee Central	SNP		32.63	15,221
204	Harwich and North Essex	C		32.64	17,651
205	Stourbridge	C		32.68	15,133
206	Lowestoft	C		32.72	14,850
207	Gravesham	C		32.76	15,581
208	North Northumberland	C		32.81	17,306
209	North East Hertfordshire	C		32.88	18,189
210	Gillingham and Rainham	C		32.9	15,119
211	Stoke-on-Trent South	C		32.9	15,393
212	South Norfolk	C		33.12	17,175
213	Mid Sussex	C	Third	33.28	13,665
214	Edinburgh South West	SNP	Third	33.29	11,982
215	Isle of Wight East	C		33.35	12,119
216	Kettering	C		33.37	17,363
217	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	SNP	Fourth	33.57	2,788
218	Cheadle	C	Third	33.71	2,336
219	Didcot and Wantage	C	Third	33.74	10,023
220	Reading West and Mid Berkshire	C		33.89	16,758
221	Mansfield	C		34.03	16,247
222	Wellingborough and Rushden	C		34.09	16,038
223	Portsmouth North	C		34.37	15,780
224	Brighton Pavilion	GP		34.38	19,630
225	South Dorset	C		34.42	18,147
226	Dumfries and Galloway	C	Third	34.43	1,556
227	North Ayrshire and Arran	SNP	Third	34.63	8,521
228	Aldershot	C		34.7	17,985
229	Tatton	C		34.81	19,281
230	Derbyshire Dales	C		34.85	18,797
231	South Derbyshire	C		34.92	16,483
232	Suffolk Coastal	C		35.05	18,355
233	Harlow	C		35.25	16,694
234	Ashford	C		35.43	17,211
235	Runnymede and Weybridge	C	Third	35.47	16,072
236	North East Fife	SNP	Fourth	35.48	728
237	Sutton and Cheam	C	Third	35.72	8,351
238	South West Hertfordshire	C	Third	36.1	17,623
239	North West Cambridgeshire	C		36.21	17,032
240	Beverley and Holderness	C		36.33	17,976
241	Windsor	C		36.47	18,247
242	Aberdeen South	SNP	Fourth	36.49	5,463
243	Salisbury	C	Third	36.51	18,848
244	South Devon	C	Third	36.54	13,719
245	Congleton	C		36.54	18,203
246	Chelmsford	C	Third	36.56	15,416
247	Mid Leicestershire	C		36.58	20,188
248	North West Leicestershire	C		36.66	18,548
249	Guildford	C	Third	36.7	3,117
250	Epsom and Ewell	C	Third	36.76	16,856
251	South West Wiltshire	C		36.79	17,378
252	Sutton Coldfield	C		36.83	19,272
253	Amber Valley	C		37.03	16,891
254	Bicester and Woodstock	C	Third	37.06	14,205
255	Fylde	C		37.06	19,254
256	Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	SNP	Fourth	37.08	4,897
257	Spelthorne	C		37.15	18,393
258	Bridgwater	C		37.16	16,724
259	Staffordshire Moorlands	C		37.41	17,659
260	Broadland and Fakenham	C		37.54	19,825
261	Chester South and Eddisbury	C		37.72	20,826
262	Newton Abbot	C	Third	37.84	17,456
263	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	C	Fourth	38.09	843
264	Poole	C		38.13	18,608
265	Orkney and Shetland	L Dem	Fourth	38.13	2,507
266	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	C	Third	38.17	4,338
267	Alloa and Grangemouth	SNP	Third	38.17	12,727
268	Romford	C		38.33	18,536
269	Huntingdon	C		38.43	21,645
270	South East Cornwall	C		38.71	20,225
271	Redditch	C		38.78	18,423
272	Reigate	C	Third	38.9	19,220
273	North Warwickshire and Bedworth	C		39.11	17,956
274	Newark	C		39.17	21,697
275	Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	SNP		39.28	12,865
276	North Shropshire	C	Fourth	39.3	20,543
277	Exmouth and Exeter East	C	Third	39.31	8,809
278	Ely and East Cambridgeshire	C	Third	39.59	13,449
279	Skipton and Ripon	C		39.66	22,517
280	Falkirk	SNP	Third	39.68	12,578
281	Melton and Syston	C		39.76	19,004
282	St Ives	C	Third	39.91	5,227
283	Mid Bedfordshire	C		39.96	20,509
284	Herne Bay and Sandwich	C		39.97	20,372
285	Kenilworth and Southam	C		39.98	22,303
286	Maidstone and Malling	C	Third	40.01	19,448
287	Old Bexley and Sidcup	C		40.04	20,769
288	Central Suffolk and North Ipswich	C		40.1	20,213
289	Horsham	C	Third	40.14	17,353
290	Eastbourne	C	Third	40.14	2,168
291	Eastleigh	C	Third	40.21	8,641
292	Broxbourne	C		40.26	19,192
293	Perth and Kinross-shire	SNP	Fourth	40.27	2,364
294	Tunbridge Wells	C	Third	40.29	14,645
295	The Wrekin	C		40.38	21,173
296	Oxford West and Abingdon	L Dem	Third	40.39	9,577
297	Great Yarmouth	C		40.64	17,663
298	Arbroath and Broughty Ferry	SNP	Third	40.73	10,777
299	Bath	L Dem	Third	40.89	12,125
300	Aberdeen North	SNP	Third	40.92	14,210
301	Bexhill and Battle	C		40.98	20,384
302	St Albans	L Dem	Third	41.11	5,905
303	South West Devon	C		41.16	23,090
304	Dorking and Horley	C	Third	41.23	10,381
305	Solihull West and Shirley	C		41.45	20,798
306	Chatham and Aylesford	C		41.46	18,992
307	Lewes	C	Third	41.47	4,126
308	Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	SNP	Fourth	41.47	2,906
309	Mid Norfolk	C		41.51	20,388
310	Meriden and Solihull East	C		41.56	20,270
311	Harpenden and Berkhamsted	C	Third	41.67	15,044
312	Hereford and South Herefordshire	C		41.76	19,321
313	South Basildon and East Thurrock	C		41.88	18,731
314	Torridge and Tavistock	C	Third	41.98	22,899
315	North Bedfordshire	C		42.05	23,631
316	Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket	C		42.08	22,085
317	Orpington	C		42.13	20,627
318	West Suffolk	C		42.15	20,797
319	Stirling and Strathallan	SNP	Third	42.18	8,556
320	Wyre Forest	C		42.35	21,413
321	Harrogate and Knaresborough	C	Third	42.35	8,787
322	Maidenhead	C	Third	42.37	17,101
323	South Northamptonshire	C		42.4	23,671
324	Tewkesbury	C	Third	42.41	19,443
325	Chesham and Amersham	C	Third	42.43	18,216
326	Kingston and Surbiton	L Dem	Third	42.44	11,174
327	Gordon and Buchan	C	Fourth	42.46	3,224
328	Hornchurch and Upminster	C		42.57	21,735
329	Bromsgrove	C		42.57	23,106
330	Witney	C	Third	42.66	15,674
331	Faversham and Mid Kent	C		42.76	20,618
332	North Cotswolds	C	Third	42.82	20,997
333	South Suffolk	C		42.86	21,473
334	Cannock Chase	C		42.92	19,879
335	Lichfield	C		43.09	22,609
336	North West Hampshire	C	Third	43.18	21,507
337	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	C		43.2	22,682
338	Westmorland and Lonsdale	C	Third	43.24	5,140
339	Chichester	C	Third	43.38	19,622
340	North West Norfolk	C		43.4	21,077
341	Tamworth	C		43.42	20,663
342	Waveney Valley	C		43.61	22,364
343	Cheltenham	C	Third	43.65	1,421
344	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	C	Fourth	43.72	5,148
345	Hertsmere	C		43.76	22,980
346	Taunton and Wellington	C	Third	44.08	8,536
347	Epping Forest	C		44.11	22,173
348	Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	C	Fourth	44.15	2,399
349	West Worcestershire	C	Third	44.17	24,499
350	Basildon and Billericay	C		44.29	20,749
351	Godalming and Ash	C	Third	44.48	10,720
352	Goole and Pocklington	C		44.69	22,302
353	Thirsk and Malton	C		44.71	23,337
354	Chippenham	C	Third	44.71	13,200
355	Esher and Walton	C	Third	44.72	3,015
356	Arundel and South Downs	C	Third	44.76	24,105
357	East Grinstead and Uckfield	C	Third	44.9	20,291
358	West Dorset	C	Third	44.91	12,388
359	Gainsborough	C		45.14	22,172
360	Wells and Mendip Hills	C	Third	45.36	14,295
361	Fareham and Waterlooville	C	Third	45.39	21,276
362	Henley and Thame	C	Third	45.55	11,901
363	Beaconsfield	C	Third	45.6	13,772
364	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	C		45.63	21,337
365	Wokingham	C	Third	45.63	12,750
366	Romsey and Southampton North	C	Third	45.73	16,251
367	Melksham and Devizes	C	Third	45.8	17,028
368	Grantham and Bourne	C		45.84	22,393
369	Torbay	C	Third	46.08	17,751
370	Angus and Perthshire Glens	SNP	Fourth	46.17	6,005
371	Honiton and Sidmouth	C		46.17	26,229
372	Mid Buckinghamshire	C	Third	46.18	22,648
373	South Leicestershire	C		46.61	25,534
374	Bridlington and the Wolds	C		46.69	21,685
375	East Hampshire	C	Third	46.71	20,200
376	Daventry	C		46.72	26,612
377	Richmond and Northallerton	C		46.9	24,331
378	Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge	C		46.9	21,922
379	Tiverton and Minehead	C	Third	47.01	20,665
380	East Surrey	C	Third	47.16	20,565
381	South Cotswolds	C	Third	47.24	16,092
382	North Herefordshire	C		47.27	25,719
383	Newbury	C	Third	47.37	11,460
384	Havant	C		47.42	21,792
385	North Devon	C	Third	47.47	14,813
386	Twickenham	L Dem	Third	47.58	13,074
387	Sleaford and North Hykeham	C		47.89	24,680
388	North West Essex	C	Third	47.92	23,227
389	Glastonbury and Somerton	C	Third	47.96	14,183
390	Gosport	C		48.04	23,278
391	Aldridge-Brownhills	C		48.09	22,758
392	Sevenoaks	C	Third	48.21	21,793
393	Richmond Park	L Dem	Third	48.38	7,725
394	Surrey Heath	C	Third	48.48	15,552
395	Droitwich and Evesham	C		48.65	25,631
396	Hamble Valley	C	Third	48.66	23,488
397	Rutland and Stamford	C	Third	48.67	25,537
398	Sussex Weald	C	Third	48.84	23,164
399	Stratford-on-Avon	C	Third	48.85	19,020
400	Winchester	C	Third	49.26	9,050
401	Witham	C		49.26	25,669
402	Braintree	C		49.28	25,466
403	North Cornwall	C	Third	49.45	15,783
404	South Shropshire	C		49.6	28,636
405	Tonbridge	C		49.68	27,052
406	New Forest East	C		49.72	25,251
407	Thornbury and Yate	C	Third	49.75	14,538
408	Wetherby and Easingwold	C		49.94	27,164
409	East Wiltshire	C		50.06	24,523
410	South West Norfolk	C		50.32	24,180
411	Hinckley and Bosworth	C	Third	50.42	22,851
412	New Forest West	C	Third	50.73	24,403
413	North Norfolk	C	Third	50.74	14,492
414	North East Hampshire	C	Third	51.68	22,433
415	Brigg and Immingham	C		51.74	24,444
416	North Dorset	C	Third	51.82	23,195
417	Yeovil	C	Third	51.84	14,638
418	Farnham and Bordon	C	Third	52.58	13,577
419	Christchurch	C	Third	52.73	25,034
420	Mid Dorset and North Poole	C	Third	52.79	16,570
421	Louth and Horncastle	C		54.74	27,883
422	Brentwood and Ongar	C		54.86	28,974
423	Clacton	C		56.31	25,717
424	Rayleigh and Wickford	C		57.26	30,348
425	Kingswinford and South Staffordshire	C		57.51	29,355
426	North East Cambridgeshire	C		57.82	25,779
427	Weald of Kent	C		57.91	28,751
428	Maldon	C		59.59	32,001
429	Castle Point	C		59.73	27,009
430	Boston and Skegness	C		60.87	27,402
431	South Holland and the Deepings	C		62.71	30,838

† If not second
†† Numerical majority over second place candidate, whether or not Labour

The winning line constituency highlighted (they need as many gains from Con, as Con needed in 2010 to win outright)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The Liberal Democrat target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures. Only seats with Lib Dems within 35% of the leader are shown.

Rank	Constituency	Held by	L Dem place†	L Dem behind %	Maj. ††
1	Carshalton and Wallington	C		1.28	629
2	North East Fife	SNP		1.40	728
3	Wimbledon	C		1.48	839
4	Sheffield Hallam	Lab		1.84	1,108
5	South Cambridgeshire	C		2.49	1,498
6	Cheltenham	C		2.50	1,421
7	Mid Dunbartonshire	SNP		3.39	1,986
8	Cheadle	C		4.18	2,336
9	Eastbourne	C		4.23	2,168
10	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	SNP		5.29	2,788
11	Esher and Walton	C		5.37	3,015
12	Guildford	C		5.93	3,117
13	Lewes	C		7.42	4,126
14	Hazel Grove	C		8.36	4,219
15	Westmorland and Lonsdale	C		9.48	5,140
16	St Ives	C		9.70	5,227
17	Finchley and Golders Green	C		11.96	6,629
18	Cities of London and Westminster	C	Third	12.10	5,976
19	Winchester	C		14.16	9,050
20	Taunton and Wellington	C		15.68	8,536
21	Harrogate and Knaresborough	C		15.82	8,787
22	Cambridge	Lab		16.28	8,099
23	Ceredigion Preseli	PC	Fourth	16.42	1,443
24	Sutton and Cheam	C		16.54	8,351
25	Woking	C		17.20	8,683
26	Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	C		17.39	9,091
27	Eastleigh	C		17.43	8,641
28	Didcot and Wantage	C		18.44	10,023
29	Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Lab		18.56	8,515
30	Kensington and Bayswater	Lab	Third	18.88	390
31	Dorking and Horley	C		19.05	10,381
32	Godalming and Ash	C		19.25	10,720
33	West Dorset	C		21.43	12,388
34	Chelsea and Fulham	C	Third	21.64	8,993
35	Henley and Thame	C		22.10	11,901
36	Newbury	C		22.48	11,460
37	Wokingham	C		23.18	12,750
38	Hitchin	C	Third	23.35	11,264
39	Hampstead and Highgate	Lab		23.35	13,400
40	City of Durham	Lab	Third	24.00	4,657
41	Beckenham and Penge	Lab	Third	24.04	631
42	Watford	C	Third	24.26	1,300
43	St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire	C		24.48	12,250
44	Ely and East Cambridgeshire	C		24.69	13,449
45	South Devon	C		25.32	13,719
46	Wells and Mendip Hills	C		25.33	14,295
47	Mid Sussex	C		25.81	13,665
48	Frome and East Somerset	C		25.84	12,395
49	Thornbury and Yate	C		25.92	14,538
50	Chippenham	C		26.13	13,200
51	Farnham and Bordon	C		26.55	13,577
52	North Devon	C		26.65	14,813
53	Glastonbury and Somerton	C		26.66	14,183
54	Tunbridge Wells	C		26.80	14,645
55	Earley and Woodley	C	Third	26.95	11,293
56	Harpenden and Berkhamsted	C		26.99	15,044
57	Yeovil	C		27.04	14,638
58	Leeds North West	C	Third	27.12	2,001
59	Bicester and Woodstock	C		27.32	14,205
60	Putney	Lab	Third	27.43	4,416
61	North Norfolk	C		28.11	14,492
62	Lothian East	SNP	Fourth	28.51	2,207
63	Chelmsford	C		28.64	15,416
64	North Cornwall	C		29.19	15,783
65	Epsom and Ewell	C		29.37	16,856
66	Romsey and Southampton North	C		29.71	16,251
67	Aylesbury	C	Third	29.81	16,640
68	Surrey Heath	C		29.83	15,552
69	Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	SNP	Fourth	29.85	3,220
70	Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	SNP	Third	30.03	4,897
71	Mid Dorset and North Poole	C		30.18	16,570
72	South Cotswolds	C		30.25	16,092
73	Newcastle upon Tyne North	Lab	Third	30.35	6,823
74	Runnymede and Weybridge	C		30.52	16,072
75	Melksham and Devizes	C		30.54	17,028
76	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	C	Fourth	30.93	843
77	York Outer	C	Third	30.96	10,782
78	Horsham	C		31.07	17,353
79	Battersea	Lab	Third	31.21	6,026
80	Edinburgh North and Leith	SNP	Fourth	31.28	12,983
81	Rushcliffe	C	Third	31.38	7,354
82	Chesterfield	Lab	Third	31.39	1,451
83	Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Lab	Third	31.40	1,082
84	Hornsey and Friern Barnet	Lab		31.61	16,607
85	Banbury	C	Third	31.61	13,799
86	Wycombe	C	Third	31.78	1,494
87	Witney	C		32.09	15,674
88	Warwick and Leamington	Lab	Third	32.41	1,169
89	Burnley	C	Third	32.78	127
90	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	C	Fourth	33.27	3,626
91	Newton Abbot	C		33.31	17,456
92	Hartlepool	Lab	Fourth	33.55	3,595
93	Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	SNP	Third	33.55	12,865
94	Maidenhead	C		33.59	17,101
95	Chesham and Amersham*	C		33.91	18,216
96	Wakefield and Rothwell	C	Third	33.94	2,626
97	Brentford and Isleworth	Lab	Third	34.01	11,369
98	Bedford	Lab	Third	34.31	1,113
99	Rotherham	Lab	Fourth	34.42	3,297
100	Houghton and Sunderland South	Lab	Fourth	34.46	3,271
101	Midlothian	SNP	Fourth	34.51	5,705
102	Aberdeen South	SNP	Third	34.57	5,463
103	Gordon and Buchan	C	Third	34.61	3,224
104	Doncaster North	Lab	Fourth	34.71	2,070
105	Bathgate and Linlithgow	SNP	Fourth	34.79	8,671
106	Torbay	C		34.83	17,751
107	Gateshead Central and Whickham	Lab	Third	34.86	5,911
108	Ealing Central and Acton	Lab	Third	34.95	14,133
109	Barnsley North	Lab	Fourth	34.97	4,002

* Affected by lack of Liberal Democrat candidate in Beaconsfield in 2019

[andrewp]

I know it’s because the winning party got a relatively low share but I wouldn’t have thought that Rotherham would be in the Lib Dems top 100 targets!

[greenhert]

Jan 21, 2024 19:42:49 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The Liberal Democrat target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures. Only seats with Lib Dems within 35% of the leader are shown.

Rank	Constituency	Held by	L Dem place†	L Dem behind %	Maj. ††
1	Carshalton and Wallington	C		1.28	629
2	North East Fife	SNP		1.40	728
3	Wimbledon	C		1.48	839
4	Sheffield Hallam	Lab		1.84	1,108
5	South Cambridgeshire	C		2.49	1,498
6	Cheltenham	C		2.50	1,421
7	Mid Dunbartonshire	SNP		3.39	1,986
8	Cheadle	C		4.18	2,336
9	Eastbourne	C		4.23	2,168
10	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	SNP		5.29	2,788
11	Esher and Walton	C		5.37	3,015
12	Guildford	C		5.93	3,117
13	Lewes	C		7.42	4,126
14	Hazel Grove	C		8.36	4,219
15	Westmorland and Lonsdale	C		9.48	5,140
16	St Ives	C		9.70	5,227
17	Finchley and Golders Green	C		11.96	6,629
18	Cities of London and Westminster	C	Third	12.10	5,976
19	Winchester	C		14.16	9,050
20	Taunton and Wellington	C		15.68	8,536
21	Harrogate and Knaresborough	C		15.82	8,787
22	Cambridge	Lab		16.28	8,099
23	Ceredigion Preseli	PC	Fourth	16.42	1,443
24	Sutton and Cheam	C		16.54	8,351
25	Woking	C		17.20	8,683
26	Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	C		17.39	9,091
27	Eastleigh	C		17.43	8,641
28	Didcot and Wantage	C		18.44	10,023
29	Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Lab		18.56	8,515
30	Kensington and Bayswater	Lab	Third	18.88	390
31	Dorking and Horley	C		19.05	10,381
32	Godalming and Ash	C		19.25	10,720
33	West Dorset	C		21.43	12,388
34	Chelsea and Fulham	C	Third	21.64	8,993
35	Henley and Thame	C		22.10	11,901
36	Newbury	C		22.48	11,460
37	Wokingham	C		23.18	12,750
38	Hitchin	C	Third	23.35	11,264
39	Hampstead and Highgate	Lab		23.35	13,400
40	City of Durham	Lab	Third	24.00	4,657
41	Beckenham and Penge	Lab	Third	24.04	631
42	Watford	C	Third	24.26	1,300
43	St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire	C		24.48	12,250
44	Ely and East Cambridgeshire	C		24.69	13,449
45	South Devon	C		25.32	13,719
46	Wells and Mendip Hills	C		25.33	14,295
47	Mid Sussex	C		25.81	13,665
48	Frome and East Somerset	C		25.84	12,395
49	Thornbury and Yate	C		25.92	14,538
50	Chippenham	C		26.13	13,200
51	Farnham and Bordon	C		26.55	13,577
52	North Devon	C		26.65	14,813
53	Glastonbury and Somerton	C		26.66	14,183
54	Tunbridge Wells	C		26.80	14,645
55	Earley and Woodley	C	Third	26.95	11,293
56	Harpenden and Berkhamsted	C		26.99	15,044
57	Yeovil	C		27.04	14,638
58	Leeds North West	C	Third	27.12	2,001
59	Bicester and Woodstock	C		27.32	14,205
60	Putney	Lab	Third	27.43	4,416
61	North Norfolk	C		28.11	14,492
62	Lothian East	SNP	Fourth	28.51	2,207
63	Chelmsford	C		28.64	15,416
64	North Cornwall	C		29.19	15,783
65	Epsom and Ewell	C		29.37	16,856
66	Romsey and Southampton North	C		29.71	16,251
67	Aylesbury	C	Third	29.81	16,640
68	Surrey Heath	C		29.83	15,552
69	Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	SNP	Fourth	29.85	3,220
70	Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	SNP	Third	30.03	4,897
71	Mid Dorset and North Poole	C		30.18	16,570
72	South Cotswolds	C		30.25	16,092
73	Newcastle upon Tyne North	Lab	Third	30.35	6,823
74	Runnymede and Weybridge	C		30.52	16,072
75	Melksham and Devizes	C		30.54	17,028
76	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	C	Fourth	30.93	843
77	York Outer	C	Third	30.96	10,782
78	Horsham	C		31.07	17,353
79	Battersea	Lab	Third	31.21	6,026
80	Edinburgh North and Leith	SNP	Fourth	31.28	12,983
81	Rushcliffe	C	Third	31.38	7,354
82	Chesterfield	Lab	Third	31.39	1,451
83	Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Lab	Third	31.40	1,082
84	Hornsey and Friern Barnet	Lab		31.61	16,607
85	Banbury	C	Third	31.61	13,799
86	Wycombe	C	Third	31.78	1,494
87	Witney	C		32.09	15,674
88	Warwick and Leamington	Lab	Third	32.41	1,169
89	Burnley	C	Third	32.78	127
90	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	C	Fourth	33.27	3,626
91	Newton Abbot	C		33.31	17,456
92	Hartlepool	Lab	Fourth	33.55	3,595
93	Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	SNP	Third	33.55	12,865
94	Maidenhead	C		33.59	17,101
95	Chesham and Amersham*	C		33.91	18,216
96	Wakefield and Rothwell	C	Third	33.94	2,626
97	Brentford and Isleworth	Lab	Third	34.01	11,369
98	Bedford	Lab	Third	34.31	1,113
99	Rotherham	Lab	Fourth	34.42	3,297
100	Houghton and Sunderland South	Lab	Fourth	34.46	3,271
101	Midlothian	SNP	Fourth	34.51	5,705
102	Aberdeen South	SNP	Third	34.57	5,463
103	Gordon and Buchan	C	Third	34.61	3,224
104	Doncaster North	Lab	Fourth	34.71	2,070
105	Bathgate and Linlithgow	SNP	Fourth	34.79	8,671
106	Torbay	C		34.83	17,751
107	Gateshead Central and Whickham	Lab	Third	34.86	5,911
108	Ealing Central and Acton	Lab	Third	34.95	14,133
109	Barnsley North	Lab	Fourth	34.97	4,002

* Affected by lack of Liberal Democrat candidate in Beaconsfield in 2019

Caveat: Guildford and Harpenden & Berkahmsted's notionals are affected by the good result of an Independent candidate who won over a lot of votes that would have gone to the Liberal Democrats in 2019 otherwise.

[nyx]

Jan 21, 2024 20:28:16 GMT andrewp said:

I know it’s because the winning party got a relatively low share but I wouldn’t have thought that Rotherham would be in the Lib Dems top 100 targets!

For comparison, these are the seats where the margin was between 35% and 45% (i.e. off the bottom of that list from the BBC), and also where the Lib Dems came second to the Conservatives:

East Grinstead and Uckfield 35.45%

Stratford-on-Avon 35.51%

Salisbury 35.74%

Reigate 35.95%

Tewkesbury 36.10%

East Hampshire 37.29%

Chichester 38.46%

North East Hampshire 39.54%

Maidstone and Malling 39.77%

East Surrey 39.95%

Hamble Valley 41.18%

North Cotswolds 41.34%

Arundel and South Downs 41.49%

North West Hampshire 41.61%

Mid Buckinghamshire 41.77%

Tiverton and Minehead 41.82%

Torridge and Tavistock 41.89%

North West Essex 42.02%

Fareham and Waterlooville 42.23%

Sevenoaks 42.33%

West Worcestershire 42.58%

North Dorset 43.38%


Whilst they're all long shots, I find it easier to imagine one or two of those seats going Lib Dem than somewhere like Rotherham!

[bjornhattan]

Personally I tend to think a multiplicative formula works better here. A seat where the Lib Dems are on 20% and the Tories are on 50% seems to me a much more plausible target than one where they are on 5% and the winner took 30% of the vote. In the former the leading candidate won 2.5 times as many votes as the Lib Dem; in the latter the difference is a factor of 6.

[Harry Hayfield]

Jan 21, 2024 19:42:49 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The Liberal Democrat target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures. Only seats with Lib Dems within 35% of the leader are shown.

Rank	Constituency	Held by	L Dem place†	L Dem behind %	Maj. ††
1	Carshalton and Wallington	C		1.28	629
2	North East Fife	SNP		1.40	728
3	Wimbledon	C		1.48	839
4	Sheffield Hallam	Lab		1.84	1,108
5	South Cambridgeshire	C		2.49	1,498
6	Cheltenham	C		2.50	1,421
7	Mid Dunbartonshire	SNP		3.39	1,986
8	Cheadle	C		4.18	2,336
9	Eastbourne	C		4.23	2,168
10	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	SNP		5.29	2,788
11	Esher and Walton	C		5.37	3,015
12	Guildford	C		5.93	3,117
13	Lewes	C		7.42	4,126
14	Hazel Grove	C		8.36	4,219
15	Westmorland and Lonsdale	C		9.48	5,140
16	St Ives	C		9.70	5,227
17	Finchley and Golders Green	C		11.96	6,629
18	Cities of London and Westminster	C	Third	12.10	5,976
19	Winchester	C		14.16	9,050
20	Taunton and Wellington	C		15.68	8,536
21	Harrogate and Knaresborough	C		15.82	8,787
22	Cambridge	Lab		16.28	8,099
23	Ceredigion Preseli	PC	Fourth	16.42	1,443
24	Sutton and Cheam	C		16.54	8,351
25	Woking	C		17.20	8,683
26	Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe	C		17.39	9,091
27	Eastleigh	C		17.43	8,641
28	Didcot and Wantage	C		18.44	10,023
29	Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Lab		18.56	8,515
30	Kensington and Bayswater	Lab	Third	18.88	390
31	Dorking and Horley	C		19.05	10,381
32	Godalming and Ash	C		19.25	10,720
33	West Dorset	C		21.43	12,388
34	Chelsea and Fulham	C	Third	21.64	8,993
35	Henley and Thame	C		22.10	11,901
36	Newbury	C		22.48	11,460
37	Wokingham	C		23.18	12,750
38	Hitchin	C	Third	23.35	11,264
39	Hampstead and Highgate	Lab		23.35	13,400
40	City of Durham	Lab	Third	24.00	4,657
41	Beckenham and Penge	Lab	Third	24.04	631
42	Watford	C	Third	24.26	1,300
43	St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire	C		24.48	12,250
44	Ely and East Cambridgeshire	C		24.69	13,449
45	South Devon	C		25.32	13,719
46	Wells and Mendip Hills	C		25.33	14,295
47	Mid Sussex	C		25.81	13,665
48	Frome and East Somerset	C		25.84	12,395
49	Thornbury and Yate	C		25.92	14,538
50	Chippenham	C		26.13	13,200
51	Farnham and Bordon	C		26.55	13,577
52	North Devon	C		26.65	14,813
53	Glastonbury and Somerton	C		26.66	14,183
54	Tunbridge Wells	C		26.80	14,645
55	Earley and Woodley	C	Third	26.95	11,293
56	Harpenden and Berkhamsted	C		26.99	15,044
57	Yeovil	C		27.04	14,638
58	Leeds North West	C	Third	27.12	2,001
59	Bicester and Woodstock	C		27.32	14,205
60	Putney	Lab	Third	27.43	4,416
61	North Norfolk	C		28.11	14,492
62	Lothian East	SNP	Fourth	28.51	2,207
63	Chelmsford	C		28.64	15,416
64	North Cornwall	C		29.19	15,783
65	Epsom and Ewell	C		29.37	16,856
66	Romsey and Southampton North	C		29.71	16,251
67	Aylesbury	C	Third	29.81	16,640
68	Surrey Heath	C		29.83	15,552
69	Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	SNP	Fourth	29.85	3,220
70	Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	SNP	Third	30.03	4,897
71	Mid Dorset and North Poole	C		30.18	16,570
72	South Cotswolds	C		30.25	16,092
73	Newcastle upon Tyne North	Lab	Third	30.35	6,823
74	Runnymede and Weybridge	C		30.52	16,072
75	Melksham and Devizes	C		30.54	17,028
76	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	C	Fourth	30.93	843
77	York Outer	C	Third	30.96	10,782
78	Horsham	C		31.07	17,353
79	Battersea	Lab	Third	31.21	6,026
80	Edinburgh North and Leith	SNP	Fourth	31.28	12,983
81	Rushcliffe	C	Third	31.38	7,354
82	Chesterfield	Lab	Third	31.39	1,451
83	Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley	Lab	Third	31.40	1,082
84	Hornsey and Friern Barnet	Lab		31.61	16,607
85	Banbury	C	Third	31.61	13,799
86	Wycombe	C	Third	31.78	1,494
87	Witney	C		32.09	15,674
88	Warwick and Leamington	Lab	Third	32.41	1,169
89	Burnley	C	Third	32.78	127
90	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	C	Fourth	33.27	3,626
91	Newton Abbot	C		33.31	17,456
92	Hartlepool	Lab	Fourth	33.55	3,595
93	Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	SNP	Third	33.55	12,865
94	Maidenhead	C		33.59	17,101
95	Chesham and Amersham*	C		33.91	18,216
96	Wakefield and Rothwell	C	Third	33.94	2,626
97	Brentford and Isleworth	Lab	Third	34.01	11,369
98	Bedford	Lab	Third	34.31	1,113
99	Rotherham	Lab	Fourth	34.42	3,297
100	Houghton and Sunderland South	Lab	Fourth	34.46	3,271
101	Midlothian	SNP	Fourth	34.51	5,705
102	Aberdeen South	SNP	Third	34.57	5,463
103	Gordon and Buchan	C	Third	34.61	3,224
104	Doncaster North	Lab	Fourth	34.71	2,070
105	Bathgate and Linlithgow	SNP	Fourth	34.79	8,671
106	Torbay	C		34.83	17,751
107	Gateshead Central and Whickham	Lab	Third	34.86	5,911
108	Ealing Central and Acton	Lab	Third	34.95	14,133
109	Barnsley North	Lab	Fourth	34.97	4,002

* Affected by lack of Liberal Democrat candidate in Beaconsfield in 2019

I can see 12 definite Lib Dem gains there, 15 potentially and when you allow for tactical voting 24 on a good night (which would take them to between 20 and 32 seats in Parliament)

[nyx]

Jan 21, 2024 21:22:24 GMT bjornhattan said:

Personally I tend to think a multiplicative formula works better here. A seat where the Lib Dems are on 20% and the Tories are on 50% seems to me a much more plausible target than one where they are on 5% and the winner took 30% of the vote. In the former the leading candidate won 2.5 times as many votes as the Lib Dem; in the latter the difference is a factor of 6.

This works surprisingly well. Here's a list of the best 150 seats for the Lib Dems, ordered by their vote share as a percentage of the vote share of the leading non-Lib Dem party:

Rank - Winning party - Percentage - LD rank in last election - Constituency name
1 LD 166.43% First Bath

2 LD 166.22% First Twickenham

3 LD 159.17% First Kingston and Surbiton

4 LD 153.09% First Oxford West and Abingdon

5 LD 132.23% First Richmond Park

6 LD 131.84% First Orkney and Shetland

7 LD 127.21% First St Albans

8 LD 115.91% First Edinburgh West

9 Con 96.98% Second Carshalton and Wallington

10 SNP 96.59% Second North East Fife

11 Con 96.29% Second Wimbledon

12 Con 94.84% Second Cheltenham

13 Lab 94.72% Second Sheffield Hallam

14 Con 94.27% Second South Cambridgeshire

15 SNP 91.05% Second Mid Dunbartonshire

16 Con 91.02% Second Eastbourne

17 Con 90.91% Second Cheadle

18 Con 89.16% Second Esher and Walton

19 Con 86.85% Second Guildford

20 SNP 86.40% Second Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

21 Con 84.71% Second Lewes

22 Con 81.65% Second Hazel Grove

23 Con 81.09% Second Westmorland and Lonsdale

24 Con 80.20% Second St Ives

25 Con 73.78% Second Winchester

26 Con 72.68% Second Finchley and Golders Green

27 Con 70.00% Third Cities of London and Westminster

28 Con 69.84% Second Taunton and Wellington

29 Con 69.57% Second Harrogate and Knaresborough

30 Con 66.91% Second Sutton and Cheam

31 Con 66.39% Second Eastleigh

32 Lab 65.68% Second Cambridge

33 Con 64.35% Second Woking

34 Con 63.94% Second Godalming and Ash

35 Con 62.94% Second Didcot and Wantage

36 Con 62.77% Second Dorking and Horley

37 Con 62.69% Second Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

38 Lab 62.61% Second Bermondsey and Old Southwark

39 Con 60.52% Second West Dorset

40 Con 59.43% Second Henley and Thame

41 Con 59.18% Second Newbury

42 Con 58.23% Second Wokingham

43 Con 55.67% Second Thornbury and Yate

44 Con 55.30% Second Farnham and Bordon

45 Con 54.87% Second Wells and Mendip Hills

46 Con 54.23% Second Ely and East Cambridgeshire

47 Con 53.66% Second Chippenham

48 Con 53.66% Second Glastonbury and Somerton

49 Con 53.50% Second Yeovil

50 Con 52.94% Second North Devon

51 Con 52.74% Second South Devon

52 Con 52.40% Third Chelsea and Fulham

53 Con 52.28% Second St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire

54 Con 51.93% Second North Norfolk

55 Lab 51.64% Third Kensington and Bayswater

56 Con 51.38% Second Tunbridge Wells

57 Lab 50.98% Second Hampstead and Highgate

58 Con 50.59% Second North Cornwall

59 Con 50.35% Third Hitchin

60 Con 49.73% Second Mid Dorset and North Poole

61 Con 49.68% Second Mid Sussex

62 Con 49.32% Second Bicester and Woodstock

63 Con 48.65% Second Romsey and Southampton North

64 Con 48.44% Second Surrey Heath

65 Con 48.37% Second Harpenden and Berkhamsted

66 Con 47.75% Second South Cotswolds

67 Con 47.65% Second Chelmsford

68 Con 47.58% Second Frome and East Somerset

69 Con 47.16% Second Melksham and Devizes

70 PC 47.12% Fourth Ceredigion Preseli

71 Con 45.19% Second Epsom and Ewell

72 Lab 44.79% Second Hornsey and Friern Barnet

73 Con 44.73% Third Earley and Woodley

74 Con 44.72% Second Witney

75 Con 44.30% Second Horsham

76 Con 42.66% Second Runnymede and Weybridge

77 Con 42.34% Third Aylesbury

78 Con 42.25% Third Watford

79 Con 41.48% Second Maidenhead

80 Lab 41.37% Third City of Durham

81 Con 41.04% Second Torbay

82 Con 41.00% Second Stratford-on-Avon

83 Con 40.05% Second Newton Abbot

84 Lab 40.04% Third Beckenham and Penge

85 Con 39.81% Second Chesham and Amersham

86 Con 39.36% Second East Grinstead and Uckfield

87 Con 39.15% Third Banbury

88 Lab 38.12% Third Putney

89 Con 37.86% Second Tewkesbury

90 Con 37.62% Third York Outer

91 Con 36.81% Second East Hampshire

92 Con 36.13% Second North East Hampshire

93 Lab 35.78% Second Clapham and Brixton Hill

94 Con 35.60% Second Reigate

95 Con 35.31% Second Salisbury

96 Con 35.23% Third Leeds North West

97 Con 34.55% Second Chichester

98 Lab 34.55% Second Islington South and Finsbury

99 Con 33.83% Second Hamble Valley

100 Con 33.80% Second East Surrey

101 Con 33.71% Third Rushcliffe

102 Con 33.67% Third Windsor

103 Lab 33.17% Third Ealing Central and Acton

104 Lab 32.67% Third Battersea

105 Lab 32.43% Third Brentford and Isleworth

106 Con 32.03% Second Mid Buckinghamshire

107 SNP 32.01% Third Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber

108 Con 31.95% Second North Dorset

109 Con 31.91% Second Maidstone and Malling

110 Con 31.90% Second North West Essex

111 Con 31.79% Second Tiverton and Minehead

112 Lab 31.61% Third Newcastle upon Tyne North

113 Lab 31.52% Second Vauxhall and Camberwell Green

114 Con 31.43% Second Sevenoaks

115 Con 31.36% Second Arundel and South Downs

116 Con 31.29% Third Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr

117 Con 31.12% Third Harborough, Oadby and Wigston

118 SNP 31.06% Third Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire

119 Con 30.99% Third North Somerset

120 Con 30.96% Second Fareham and Waterlooville

121 Con 30.79% Third Aldershot

122 Con 30.74% Second North West Hampshire

123 Con 30.44% Third Bridgwater

124 Con 30.34% Second North Cotswolds

125 Lab 30.31% Third Streatham and Croydon North

126 Con 30.03% Third South Norfolk

127 Con 29.99% Second Torridge and Tavistock

128 Con 29.82% Second West Worcestershire

129 Con 29.76% Third Reading West and Mid Berkshire

130 Con 29.34% Third Bromley and Biggin Hill

131 Con 29.12% Third Morecambe and Lunesdale

132 Con 29.08% Third Buckingham and Bletchley

133 Con 28.76% Third North Northumberland

134 Con 28.66% Third Kenilworth and Southam

135 SNP 28.57% Fourth Edinburgh North and Leith

136 Con 28.27% Third South West Wiltshire

137 Con 28.26% Third Tatton

138 Con 28.14% Second Hinckley and Bosworth

139 Con 28.06% Third Colchester

140 Con 27.63% Third South East Cornwall

141 Con 27.48% Third West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

142 Con 27.44% Third North East Somerset and Hanham

143 Con 27.39% Third Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner

144 Con 27.36% Third North East Hertfordshire

145 Lab 27.32% Third Hammersmith and Chiswick

146 Con 27.15% Third Broadland and Fakenham

147 Con 27.11% Third Central Devon

148 Lab 26.95% Third Tooting

149 Con 26.80% Third Suffolk Coastal

150 Lab 26.50% Third Greenwich and Woolwich

[iain]

Jan 21, 2024 21:22:24 GMT bjornhattan said:

Personally I tend to think a multiplicative formula works better here. A seat where the Lib Dems are on 20% and the Tories are on 50% seems to me a much more plausible target than one where they are on 5% and the winner took 30% of the vote. In the former the leading candidate won 2.5 times as many votes as the Lib Dem; in the latter the difference is a factor of 6.

Traditionally these lists are compiled by swing needed rather than margin behind first, which I think tends to come to more reasonable conclusions. Rotherham for example would come in at 327 on the Lib Dem target list, requiring a swing of 26.85% (to overcome not just Labour but the second placed Conservatives).

[iainbhx]

There has been a further release of Scottish census data - sadly at the 2005 Constituencies level.

[nodealbrexiteer]

I don't suppose we have a comprehensive updated sets/votes relationship table like the one below for the 2019 notionals please?:

academic.oup.com/view-large/207673497