New boundaries - statistics and table thread

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF SIKH RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

2021 census

......... % ....... Result 2019/notional

1.Ealing Southall 18.7 Lab
2. Hayes & Harlington 15.8 Lab
3. Wolverhampton W 14.4 C
4. West Bromwich 13.9 C
5. Smethwick 13.3 Lab
6. Feltham & Heston 11.8 Lab
7. Wolverhampton SE 11.6 Lab
8. Slough 11.4 Lab
9. Birmingham Perry Barr 9.5 Lab
10. Ilford S 8.0 Lab
11. Gravesham 8.0 C
12. Tipton & Wednesbury 7.7 C
13. Wolverhampton NE 7.5 C
14. Brentford & Isleworth 6.9 Lab
15. Leicester E 6.8 Lab
16. Warwick & Leamington 5.5 Lab
17. Coventry East 5.5 Lab
18. Derby South 5.4 Lab
19. Beaconsfield 5.4 C
20. Coventry South 5.4 Lab

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF FULL TIME STUDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

2021 CENSUS

………….. % ………. Result 2019/notional


1. Leeds Central & Headingley 43.4 Lab
2. Sheffield Central 38.1 Lab
3. Manchester Rusholme 34.2 Lab
4. Nottingham South 32.5 Lab
5. Bristol Central 29.8 Lab
6. Liverpool Riverside 27.3 Lab
7. Cambridge 26.8 Lab
8. Coventry South 25.3 Lab
9. Nottingham East 25.2 Lab
10. Exeter 24.0 Lab
11. Cardiff South & Penarth 24.0 Lab
12. Oxford West & Abingdon 23.7 LD
13. Leicester South 23.7 Lab
14. York Central 23.2 Lab
15. Birmingham Ladywood 22.5 Lab
16. Birmingham Selly Oak 21.9 Lab
17. Bath 21.4 LD
18. Holborn & St Pancras S 21.1 Lab
19. City of Durham 20.8 Lab
20. Canterbury 20.7 Lab



For comparison, present boundaries

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF FULL TIME STUDENTS

ENGLAND and WALES

2021 CENSUS

% Result 2019
1. Nottingham South 34.5 Lab
2. Cardiff Central 33.6 Lab
3. Sheffield Central 32.6 Lab
4. Newcastle upon Tyne East 29.7 Lab
5. Liverpool Riverside 29.3 Lab
6. Oxford East 26.8 Lab
7. Cambridge 27.5 Lab
8. Coventry South 25.2 Lab
9. Bristol West 25.0 Lab
10. Leeds Central 24.8 Lab
11. Manchester Central 23.8 Lab
12. Nottingham East 23.5 Lab
13. Leeds North West 23.0 Lab
14. Bath 22.6 LD
15. Leicester South 24.8 Lab
16. Birmingham Ladywood 22.3 Lab
17. Manchester Gorton 22.1 Lab
18. Exeter 22.0 Lab
19. Birmingham Selly Oak 21.7 Lab
20. City of Durham 21.1 Lab

[jamie]

Just realised how perfectly divided the student areas of Newcastle have been. Jesmond in North, Heaton/Ouseburn in East, and the city centre/Arthur’s Hill in West. They were awkwardly divided under the old boundaries but at least that was only between 2 constituencies.

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF ROUTINE / SEMI ROUTINE WORKERS

New Boundaries

2021 Census

...... % ....... Party holding seat 2019 / notional

1. Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes 38.0 C gain from Lab
2. Hull East 37.7 Lab
3. Leicester E 37.3 Lab
4. Boston and Skegness 37.0 C
5. Wolverhampton South East 36.7 Lab
6. Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney 36.5 Lab
7. Stoke on Trent Central 36.1 C gain from Lab
8. Tipton & Wednesbury 35.9 C gain from Lab
9. Scunthorpe 35.5 C gain from Lab
10. Stoke on Trent North 35.1 C gain from Lab
11. Normanton & Hemsworth 34.8 Lab
12. Mansfield 34.7 C
13. Ashfield 34.7 C gain from Lab
14. Barnsley South 34.6 Lab
15. Rhondda & Ogmore 34.5 Lab
16. Pontefact, castlefors & Knottingley 34.2 Lab
17. Leicester West 34.1 Lab
18. Wolverhampton North East 34.0 C gain from Lab
19. Aberafan Maesteg 33.9 Lab
20. Great Yarmouth 33.8 C




For comparison PRESENT BOUNDARIES

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF ROUTINE / SEMI ROUTINE WORKERS (England and Wales)

2021 Census

% ........ Party holding seat

1. Great Grimsby 38.0 C gain from Lab
2.Boston and Skegness 37.3 C
3. Hull East 37.2 Lab
4.Leicester E 37.1 Lab
5. Blaenau Gwent 36.9 Lab
6. Scunthorpe 36.1 C gain from Lab
7. Wolverhampton South East 36.0 Lab
8. Stoke on Trent North 35.8 C gain from Lab
9. Walsall North 35.7 C
10. Nottingham North 35.4 Lab
11. Stoke on Trent South 35.2 C
12 Hull West and Hessle 35.1 Lab
13. West Bromwich West 34.9 C gain from Lab
14. Leicester West 34.7 Lab
15. Ashfield 34.6 C gain from Lab
16. Mansfield 34.5 C
17. Stoke on Trent Central 34.5 C gain from Lab
18. Rhondda 34.5 Lab
19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford 34.5 Lab
20. Wolverhampton North East 34.1 C gain from Lab

Thanks again to bjornhattan

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF PROFESSIONAL AND MANAGERIAL WORKERS

NEW BOUNDARIES

2021 CENSUS

......... % ...... Result 2019/notional

1. Richmond Park 55.7 LD gain from C
2. Battersea 55.1 Lab
3. Hampstead and Highgate 53.6 Lab
4. Wimbledon 53.0 C
5. Twickenham 52.7 LD
6. Tooting 52.6 Lab
7. Harpenden and Berkhamsted 52.1 C
8. Wokingham 51.6 C
9. Putney 50.9 Lab gain from C
10. Esher and Walton 50.2 C
11. Clapham & Brixton Hill 49.9 Lab
12. St Albans 49.9 LD gain from C
13. Hornsey & Friern Barnet 49.7 Lab
14. Chelsea and Fulham 49.6 C
15. Cities of London and Westminster 49.0 C
16. North East Hampshire 48.8 C
17 Lewisham West & East Dulwich 48.8 Lab
18. Sheffield Hallam 48.3 Lab
19. Altrincham & Sale West 48.1 C
20. Beckenham & Penge 48.0 C



Present boundaries for comparison

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF PROFESSIONAL AND MANAGERIAL WORKERS

2021 CENSUS

% Result 2019
1. Battersea 55.6 Lab
2. 2. Richmond Park 55.2 LD gain from C
3. Wimbledon 54.3 C
4. Tooting 52.6 Lab
5. Twickenham 51.8 LD
6. Chelsea and Fulham 50.8 C
7. Hitchin and Harpenden 50.6 C
8. Esher and Walton 49.9 C
9. Putney 49.9 Lab gain from C
10. Hampstead and Kilburn 49.8 Lab
11. St Albans 49.5 LD gain from C
12. Wokingham 49.1 C
13. Cities of London and Westminster 48.8 C
14. Sheffield Hallam 48.4 Lab
15.North East Hampshire 48.4 C
16. Altrincham and Sale West 48.1 C
17.Maidenhead 47.5 C
18. South Cambridgeshire 47.5 C
19. Chesham and Amersham 47.5 C (gained by LD in byelection)
20. Beckenham 47.3 C

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF VOTERS over 65

2021 Census

NEW BOUNDARIES

........ % ....... Result 2019/notional

1. Christchurch 34.6 C
2. North Norfolk 34.1 C gain from LD
3. New Forest West 33.3 C
4. Bexhill and Battle 32.2 C
5. West Dorset 32.1 C
6. Clacton 32.0 C
7. Honiton & Sidmouth 31.8 C
8. Isle of Wight E 31.2 (C)
9. Louth and Horncastle 30.5 C
10. South Shropshire 30.2 C
11. South Devon 30.1 C
12. Bridlington & The Wolds 30.0 C
13. Suffolk Coastal 29.8 C
14. Waveney Valley 29.2 C
15. Arundel and South Downs 28.9 C
18. Tiverton & Minehead 28.7 C
19. Torridge & Tavistock 28.7 C
20. Lewes 28.4 C

[sirbenjamin]

Jul 24, 2023 15:59:43 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF VOTERS over 65

2021 Census

NEW BOUNDARIES

........ % ....... Result 2019/notional

1. Christchurch 34.6 C
2. North Norfolk 34.1 C gain from LD
3. New Forest West 33.3 C
4. Bexhill and Battle 32.2 C
5. West Dorset 32.1 C
6. Clacton 32.0 C
7. Honiton & Sidmouth 31.8 C
8. Isle of Wight E 31.2 (C)
9. Louth and Horncastle 30.5 C
10. South Shropshire 30.2 C
11. South Devon 30.1 C
12. Bridlington & The Wolds 30.0 C
13. Suffolk Coastal 29.8 C
14. Waveney Valley 29.2 C
15. Arundel and South Downs 28.9 C
18. Tiverton & Minehead 28.7 (LD gain from C in byelection)
19. Torridge & Tavistock 28.7 C
20. Lewes 28.4 C

Interesting to note here that the primary successor seat to East Devon isn't in the top 20, even though the current seat has long featured very close to the top of these tables.

Can it be explained by the very oldest East Devon constituents being moved mainly into Honiton & Sidmouth rather than Exmouth and Exeter East? Or has there been greater demographic change in the area, making it more youthful in general?

[andrewp]

Jul 24, 2023 16:32:41 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Jul 24, 2023 15:59:43 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF VOTERS over 65

2021 Census

NEW BOUNDARIES

........ % ....... Result 2019/notional

1. Christchurch 34.6 C
2. North Norfolk 34.1 C gain from LD
3. New Forest West 33.3 C
4. Bexhill and Battle 32.2 C
5. West Dorset 32.1 C
6. Clacton 32.0 C
7. Honiton & Sidmouth 31.8 C
8. Isle of Wight E 31.2 (C)
9. Louth and Horncastle 30.5 C
10. South Shropshire 30.2 C
11. South Devon 30.1 C
12. Bridlington & The Wolds 30.0 C
13. Suffolk Coastal 29.8 C
14. Waveney Valley 29.2 C
15. Arundel and South Downs 28.9 C
18. Tiverton & Minehead 28.7 (LD gain from C in byelection)
19. Torridge & Tavistock 28.7 C
20. Lewes 28.4 C

Interesting to note here that the primary successor seat to East Devon isn't in the top 20, even though the current seat has long featured very close to the top of these tables.

Can it be explained by the very oldest East Devon constituents being moved mainly into Honiton & Sidmouth rather than Exmouth and Exeter East? Or has there been greater demographic change in the area, making it more youthful in general?

Yes, the very oldest are in Sidmouth. There might have been a bit of demographic change in Exmouth, but it’s more that Most of the Exeter East bit is pretty young I suspect. 

[bjornhattan]

Jul 24, 2023 17:04:47 GMT andrewp said:

Jul 24, 2023 16:32:41 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Interesting to note here that the primary successor seat to East Devon isn't in the top 20, even though the current seat has long featured very close to the top of these tables.

Can it be explained by the very oldest East Devon constituents being moved mainly into Honiton & Sidmouth rather than Exmouth and Exeter East? Or has there been greater demographic change in the area, making it more youthful in general?

Yes, the very oldest are in Sidmouth. There might have been a bit of demographic change in Exmouth, but it’s more that Most of the Exeter East bit is pretty young I suspect. 

There's also the new developments at Cranbrook - just 3.4% of residents there are over 65, which is lower even than most inner cities or university areas. While Cranbrook isn't huge that is such a low percentage that it reduces the figures for the seat as a whole considerably.

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF BLACK RESIDENTS

2021 census

NEW BOUNDARIES

.......... % ....... Result 2019/notional

1. Peckham 34.4 Lab
2. Erith and Thamesmead 30.6 Lab
3. Croydon West 30.5 Lab
4. Lewisham East 29.0 Lab
5. Vauxhall & Camberwell Green 27.9 Lab
6. Lewisham North 27.1 Lab
7. Dulwich and West Norwood 25.3 Lab
8. Tottenham 27.9 Lab
9. Birmingham Ladywood 23.7 Lab
10. Hackney South and Shoreditch 23.6 Lab
11. Streatham & Croydon North 23.4 Lab
12. Clapham & Brixton Hill 22.9 Lab
13. Edmonton & Winchmore Hill 22.9 Lab
14. West Ham & Beckton 22.6 Lab
15. Barking 21.7 Lab
16. Brent East 21.7 Lab
17. Croydon East 21.6 Lab
18. Enfield North 20.3 Lab
19. Lewisham West & East Dulwich 20.1 Lab
20. Greenwich and Woolwich 20.0 Lab



20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF BLACK RESIDENTS 2021 census

Present boundaries, for comparison

%// Result 2019// Change 2011-21

1. Camberwell and Peckham 33.5 Lab -3.9
2. Croydon North 30.9 Lab -0.6
3. Erith and Thamesmead 29.0 Lab +3.3
4. Edmonton 27.6 Lab +0.3
5. Lewisham Deptford 27.1 Lab -1.8
6. Lewisham East 26.7 Lab +0.9
7. Birmingham Ladywood 25.9 Lab +3.3
8. Hackney South and Shoreditch 24.8 Lab -2.1
9. Vauxhall 24.1 Lab -0.6
10. Tottenham 24.0 Lab -2.7
11. Brent Central 23.7 Lab -1.8
12. Dulwich and West Norwood 23.3 Lab -1.7
13. Croydon Central 22.6 Lab +4.7
14. Streatham 21.1 Lab -3.2
15. Lewisham West and Penge 21.9 Lab -0.5
16. Barking 21.2 Lab +1.0
17. Greenwich and Woolwich 21.1 Lab +1.0
18. Bermondsey and Old Southwark 20.8 Lab +0.7
19. West Ham 20.2 Lab -2.9
20. Enfield North 18.6 Lab +3.1

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF ASIAN RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

2021 CENSUS

............ % ...... Result 2019/notional

1. Leicester East 68.7 Lab
2. Bradford West 61.0 Lab
3. East Ham 58.8 Lab
4. Ilford South 57.6 Lab
5. Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley 54.2 Lab
6. Birmingham Perry Barr 53.0 Lab
7. Ilford North 50.3 Lab
8. Brent West 50.1 Lab
9. Bethnal Green & Stepney 49.4 Lab
10. Slough 47.8 Lab
11. Blackburn 47.5 Lab
12. Ealing Southall 46.9 Lab
13. Harrow East 46.5 C
14. Bradford East 45.7 Lab
15. Harrow West 44.6 Lab
16. Hayes & Harlington 44.5 Lab
17. Dewsbury & Batley 44.2 Lab
18. Feltham and Heston 43.6 Lab
19. Leicester South 43.5 Lab
20. Poplar and Limehouse 42.9 Lab

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

2021 CENSUS

............ % ...... Result 2019/notional

1. Whitehaven & Workington 98.2 C
2. Torridge & Tavistock 98.2 C
3. Dwyfor Meirionnydd 98.2 PC
4. North Northumberland 98.2 C
5. Tiverton & Minehead 98.1 C
6. Penrith & Solway 98.1 C
7. Ynys Mon 98.1 C gain from Lab
8. Easington 98.1 Lab
9. North Norfolk 98.1 C gain from LD
10. Thirsk & Malton 98.1 C
11. Bridlington & The Wolds 98.1 C
12. Bishop Auckland 98.0 C gain from Lab
13. Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr 98.0 C
14. Staffordshire Moorlands 98.0 C
15. Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney 98.0 Lab
16. Louth & Horncastle 97.9 C
17. Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor 97.8 C gain from Lab
18. Blaydon & Consett 97.8 Lab
19. Clwyd East 97.8 C gain from Lab
20. South West Devon 97.8 C

[yellowperil]

Jul 25, 2023 21:48:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

2021 CENSUS

............ % ...... Result 2019/notional

1. Whitehaven & Workington 98.2 C
2. Torridge & Tavistock 98.2 C
3. Dwyfor Meirionnydd 98.2 PC
4. North Northumberland 98.2 C
5. Tiverton & Minehead 98.1 C
6. Penrith & Solway 98.1 C
7. Ynys Mon 98.1 C gain from Lab
8. Easington 98.1 Lab
9. North Norfolk 98.1 C gain from LD
10. Thirsk & Malton 98.1 C
11. Bridlington & The Wolds 98.1 C
12. Bishop Auckland 98.0 C gain from Lab
13. Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr 98.0 C
14. Staffordshire Moorlands 98.0 C
15. Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney 98.0 Lab
16. Louth & Horncastle 97.9 C
17. Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor 97.8 C gain from Lab
18. Blaydon & Consett 97.8 Lab
19. Clwyd East 97.8 C gain from Lab
20. South West Devon 97.8 C

So the best place in the country to find white working class is probably Whitehaven and Workington. Is that nominative determinism?

[Robert Waller]

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH LOWEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

........ % ........ 2019 result/notional

575. Leicester East 20.1 Lab
574. East Ham 20.3 Lab
573. Birmingham Perry Barr 21.0 Lab
572. Ilford South 22.0 Lab
571. Birmingham Ladywood 22.3 Lab
570. Brent West 25.6 Lab
569. Bradford West 29.5 Lab
568. Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley 29.6 Lab
567. Ealing Southall 30.7 Lab
566. Hayes and Harlington 32.0 Lab
565. Ilford North 32.9 Lab
564. Croydon West 33.3 Lab
563. Harrow West 34.2 Lab
562. Slough 35.1 Lab
561. Bethnal Green & Stepney 35.7 Lab
560. Harrow East 36.5 C
559. Feltham and Heston 37.4 Lab
558. Brent East 38.0 Lab
557. West Ham & Beckton 38.4 Lab

[johnloony]

Jul 26, 2023 6:48:40 GMT yellowperil said:

Jul 25, 2023 21:48:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

2021 CENSUS

............ % ...... Result 2019/notional

1. Whitehaven & Workington 98.2 C
2. Torridge & Tavistock 98.2 C
3. Dwyfor Meirionnydd 98.2 PC
4. North Northumberland 98.2 C
5. Tiverton & Minehead 98.1 C
6. Penrith & Solway 98.1 C
7. Ynys Mon 98.1 C gain from Lab
8. Easington 98.1 Lab
9. North Norfolk 98.1 C gain from LD
10. Thirsk & Malton 98.1 C
11. Bridlington & The Wolds 98.1 C
12. Bishop Auckland 98.0 C gain from Lab
13. Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr 98.0 C
14. Staffordshire Moorlands 98.0 C
15. Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney 98.0 Lab
16. Louth & Horncastle 97.9 C
17. Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor 97.8 C gain from Lab
18. Blaydon & Consett 97.8 Lab
19. Clwyd East 97.8 C gain from Lab
20. South West Devon 97.8 C

So the best place in the country to find white working class is probably Whitehaven and Workington. Is that nominative determinism?

QTWTAIN

[spinach]

Jul 25, 2023 21:48:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH HIGHEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

2021 CENSUS

............ % ...... Result 2019/notional

1. Whitehaven & Workington 98.2 C
2. Torridge & Tavistock 98.2 C
3. Dwyfor Meirionnydd 98.2 PC
4. North Northumberland 98.2 C
5. Tiverton & Minehead 98.1 C
6. Penrith & Solway 98.1 C
7. Ynys Mon 98.1 C gain from Lab
8. Easington 98.1 Lab
9. North Norfolk 98.1 C gain from LD
10. Thirsk & Malton 98.1 C
11. Bridlington & The Wolds 98.1 C
12. Bishop Auckland 98.0 C gain from Lab
13. Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr 98.0 C
14. Staffordshire Moorlands 98.0 C
15. Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney 98.0 Lab
16. Louth & Horncastle 97.9 C
17. Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor 97.8 C gain from Lab
18. Blaydon & Consett 97.8 Lab
19. Clwyd East 97.8 C gain from Lab
20. South West Devon 97.8 C

So the whitest parts of England and Wales are predominantly in rural or small ex-industrial towns in the North East of England, Cumbria and Wales.

Although I can imagine many seats in Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a higher % of white residents.

[spinach]

Jul 26, 2023 23:08:26 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH LOWEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

........ % ........ 2019 result/notional

575. Leicester East 20.1 Lab
574. East Ham 20.3 Lab
573. Birmingham Perry Barr 21.0 Lab
572. Ilford South 22.0 Lab
571. Birmingham Ladywood 22.3 Lab
570. Brent West 25.6 Lab
569. Bradford West 29.5 Lab
568. Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley 29.6 Lab
567. Ealing Southall 30.7 Lab
566. Hayes and Harlington 32.0 Lab
565. Ilford North 32.9 Lab
564. Croydon West 33.3 Lab
563. Harrow West 34.2 Lab
562. Slough 35.1 Lab
561. Bethnal Green & Stepney 35.7 Lab
560. Harrow East 36.5 C
559. Feltham and Heston 37.4 Lab
558. Brent East 38.0 Lab
557. West Ham & Beckton 38.4 Lab

All safely held by the Labour Party apart from Harrow East.

Harrow East must be one of few numbers of minority-majority constituencies held by the Tories.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

There's a reason why Bob Blackman is the no. 1 Parliamentary supporter of Narendra Modi and Hindutva politics.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 27, 2023 9:24:24 GMT spinach said:

Jul 26, 2023 23:08:26 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH LOWEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

........ % ........ 2019 result/notional

575. Leicester East 20.1 Lab
574. East Ham 20.3 Lab
573. Birmingham Perry Barr 21.0 Lab
572. Ilford South 22.0 Lab
571. Birmingham Ladywood 22.3 Lab
570. Brent West 25.6 Lab
569. Bradford West 29.5 Lab
568. Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley 29.6 Lab
567. Ealing Southall 30.7 Lab
566. Hayes and Harlington 32.0 Lab
565. Ilford North 32.9 Lab
564. Croydon West 33.3 Lab
563. Harrow West 34.2 Lab
562. Slough 35.1 Lab
561. Bethnal Green & Stepney 35.7 Lab
560. Harrow East 36.5 C
559. Feltham and Heston 37.4 Lab
558. Brent East 38.0 Lab
557. West Ham & Beckton 38.4 Lab

All safely held by the Labour Party apart from Harrow East.

Harrow East must be one of few numbers of minority-majority constituencies held by the Tories.

The only other example is neighbouring Hendon and that only just qualifies (49.7% white)

[jakegb]

Jul 27, 2023 9:24:24 GMT spinach said:

Jul 26, 2023 23:08:26 GMT Robert Waller said:

20 CONSTITUENCIES WITH LOWEST PROPORTION OF WHITE RESIDENTS

NEW BOUNDARIES

ENGLAND and WALES

........ % ........ 2019 result/notional

575. Leicester East 20.1 Lab
574. East Ham 20.3 Lab
573. Birmingham Perry Barr 21.0 Lab
572. Ilford South 22.0 Lab
571. Birmingham Ladywood 22.3 Lab
570. Brent West 25.6 Lab
569. Bradford West 29.5 Lab
568. Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley 29.6 Lab
567. Ealing Southall 30.7 Lab
566. Hayes and Harlington 32.0 Lab
565. Ilford North 32.9 Lab
564. Croydon West 33.3 Lab
563. Harrow West 34.2 Lab
562. Slough 35.1 Lab
561. Bethnal Green & Stepney 35.7 Lab
560. Harrow East 36.5 C
559. Feltham and Heston 37.4 Lab
558. Brent East 38.0 Lab
557. West Ham & Beckton 38.4 Lab

All safely held by the Labour Party apart from Harrow East.

Harrow East must be one of few numbers of minority-majority constituencies held by the Tories.

Locally, the Tories hold Slough (albeit under minority control).
Though not marginal, the Tories have also made significant inroads into Leicester East; this was highlighted by strong 2023 local election results in that particular constituency. With the right candidate, I would not rule out the ultimate surprise gain in the 2024/25 GE.