Local Council by-elections 4th/6th July 2023

[Tony Otim]

Tuesday 4th July:

CAMBRIDGE DC; King’s Hedges (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
ANWAR, Zarina (Labour)
DALZELL, Jamie Leon (Liberal Democrat)
HOSSAIN, Mohamed Delowar (Conservative)
MAY, Elizabeth Alice (Green)

2023: Lab 798; Con 650; LD 305; Grn 285
2022: Lab 968; LD 383; Grn 314; Con 248
2021: Lab 1013, 966, 750; LD 427, 347, 335; Con 401, 352, 329; Grn 369, 367, 340; Workers Party 56

Vacancy is for 2023-27 term. Mohamed Hossain stood here for the Conservatives in May, when Zarina Anwar stood for Labour in Abbey, Jamie Dalzell for the Lib Dems in West Chesterton and Elizabeth May for the Greens in East Chesterton.

Current Council: Lab 26; LD 10; Grn 4; Ind 1; 1 vacancy





Thursday 6th July:

KENT CC; Maidstone Central (LD died)
Candidates:
COLLIER, David (Labour)
FORECAST, Stanley Edward (Conservative)
JARVIS, Graham Alexander (Reform UK)
JEFFERY, Stuart Robert (Green)
KENWARD, Yolande Ann (Independent)
PASSMORE, Chris (Liberal Democrat)

2021: Con 3484, 2562; LD 2880, 2207; Lab 1817, 1748; Grn 1389, 1098
2017: LD 3540, 3140; Con 2746, 2246; Lab 1363, 1319; UKIP 647; Grn 470, 444

This division is made up of the district wards of Allington (currently 2 LD, 1 Con); Bridge (1 Grn, 1 Con); Fant (3 Lab); Heath (1 LD, 1 Con); High Street (part) (2 LD, 1 Ind elected as LD). The 3 Conservatives were elected in 2021 and they haven’t won a seat in the division in the last 2 years. Adding up the votes in the last elections in each ward (2023, except for Bridge and Heath from 2022) gives LD 28.3%; Con 25.5; Grn 24.6; Lab 21.1 (the fact that High Street is only partially in the division would probably marginally reduce the LD share compared to the others), so potentially a very interesting by-election.

David Collier (Lab) stood in High Street in May, coming second. Stanley Forecast is Conservative district councillor for Allingham ward. Graham Jarvis (Reform) was Conservative candidate for this division in 2017 and stood in South ward (not in the division) in May. Stuart Jeffery (Green) is district councillor for Bridge ward and has contested this division in the last 2 elections and has also contested the parliamentary seat in 3 out of last 4 general elections . Yolande Kenward (Ind) contested Maidstone South division in 2021 and stood for the Maidstone & The Weald constituency in 2019 and stood in the North Shropshire by-election, getting 3 votes! Chris Passmore was the unsuccessful Lib Dem candidate in the division in 2021 and stood in Marden & Yalding ward in May.

Current Council: Con 60; Lab 7; LD 5; Grn 5; Ind 1; Swale Ind 1; Swanscombe & Greenhithe Res 1; 1 vacancy



SOUTH LANARKSHIRE UA; East Kilbride West (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
DORRIAN, Bill (Conservative)
EADIE, Cameron (Green)
GILLIES, Robert (SNP)
KEANE, Kristofer (Independent)
RICHARDSON, Jonathan Jack (Scottish Family Party)
STEVENSON, Jake (Liberal Democrats)
WILLIAMS, KIrsty (Labour)

2022: SNP 1041, 1031; Lab 1780; Con 1339; Ind 1248; LD 142; Family 110; UKIP 18
2017: Con 2363; SNP 1298, 900; Lab 1315; LD 223; Grn 194; UKIP 49

The Indy elected last year was the SNP cllr elected in 2017.
None of these candidates have contested this ward before. Last May Robert Gillies stood for the SNP in East Kilbride East, Kristofer Keane stood in East Kilbride Central North, Jonathan Richardson stood for SFP in East Kilbride South; Jake Stevenson for the Lib Dems in Larkhall

Current Council: SNP 26; Lab 24; Con 7; LD 3; Ind Grp 2; Grn 1; 1 vacancy

[iang]

Yolande Kenward is a candidate of...let's say idiosyncratic opinions

[iainbhx]

Jun 12, 2023 18:15:28 GMT iang said:

Yolande Kenward is a candidate of...let's say idiosyncratic opinions

And several aliases and a trail of interesting law suits.

[stb12]

Big question is do I make the effort to vote in my East Kilbride ward?

[Kristofer Keane]

Jun 17, 2023 11:16:31 GMT stb12 said:

Big question is do I make the effort to vote in my East Kilbride ward?

I always vote out of principle, but I bet all the candidates are probably terrible.

[stb12]

Jun 17, 2023 12:48:30 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

Jun 17, 2023 11:16:31 GMT stb12 said:

Big question is do I make the effort to vote in my East Kilbride ward?

I always vote out of principle, but I bet all the candidates are probably terrible.

So I’ve heard

[Kristofer Keane]

The Conservatives seem to be onto a second leaflet now, and the only other campaigner I've bumped into so far was a Conservative (and not the candidate) so they definitely seem to fancy their chances. I've seen one leaflet from each Labour and the SNP so far. No sign of anything from the Lib Dem, Green, or Family Party candidates yet. I'm about halfway through the ward myself, the heatwave was a bit brutal for leafleting but thankfully it's cooled down now.

[stb12]

Jun 17, 2023 13:14:07 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

The Conservatives seem to be onto a second leaflet now, and the only other campaigner I've bumped into so far was a Conservative (and not the candidate) so they definitely seem to fancy their chances. I've seen one leaflet from each Labour and the SNP so far. No sign of anything from the Lib Dem, Green, or Family Party candidates yet. I'm about halfway through the ward myself, the heatwave was a bit brutal for leafleting but thankfully it's cooled down now.

I’m still pretty surprised the Tories lost the seat here last year

[jamie]

Jun 17, 2023 11:16:31 GMT stb12 said:

Big question is do I make the effort to vote in my East Kilbride ward?

To not do so would be blasphemous given you are a moderator on a psephology forum 😁

[Kristofer Keane]

Jun 17, 2023 13:53:01 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 17, 2023 13:14:07 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

The Conservatives seem to be onto a second leaflet now, and the only other campaigner I've bumped into so far was a Conservative (and not the candidate) so they definitely seem to fancy their chances. I've seen one leaflet from each Labour and the SNP so far. No sign of anything from the Lib Dem, Green, or Family Party candidates yet. I'm about halfway through the ward myself, the heatwave was a bit brutal for leafleting but thankfully it's cooled down now.

I’m still pretty surprised the Tories lost the seat here last year

I don't know what the campaign in this ward was like last year, but I wonder if the Tories were just a bit complacent thinking this was a relatively safe seat while they had receding marginals to defend elsewhere in South Lanarkshire.

I bumped into David Watson today, he's a friendly guy and from what I've heard a very active councillor, but I get the feeling even he was a bit surprised to actually get re-elected as an independent.

[Kristofer Keane]

Update from East Kilbride: the Conservatives are now onto a third leaflet, seen a second from Labour, still only one from the SNP. Saw the Greens for the first time today doing some leafleting in Stewartfield, which I'm egotistically going to assume is a last minute effort to avoid being outpolled by me as they seemed to be going for just a paper candidate until now, and the postal votes are already out so it's a strange time to start. Still never seen anything from the Lib Dems or the Family Party. I'm over 90% done on my own leaflets.

As well as their various national woes, the local SNP branch has apparently hit some infighting against their local MP again, which may explain the lack of activity: www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/snp-hate-speech-storm-mp-30267451

Labour meanwhile have seen their council leader suspended and then chose a replacement with a history of a weird Nazi slogan blunder in a council meeting: www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23617542.south-lanarkshire-council-leader-joe-fagan-suspended-secrets-leak
www.thenational.scot/news/23620507.south-lanarkshire-council-appoint-leader-used-nazi-slogan/

Ballot Box Scotland thinks the ward is a guaranteed Labour win. I think Labour is likely, but not guaranteed. Conservatives may come top in first preferences on a low turnout, but they'll struggle for transfers to reach quota. Obviously I'm required to say I expect to win, but it'd also be nice just to set a new personal best.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Jun 12, 2023 18:15:28 GMT iang said:

Yolande Kenward is a candidate of...let's say idiosyncratic opinions

They're the 5-votes in North Shropshire aren't they?

[stb12]

Jul 1, 2023 18:14:10 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

Update from East Kilbride: the Conservatives are now onto a third leaflet, seen a second from Labour, still only one from the SNP. Saw the Greens for the first time today doing some leafleting in Stewartfield, which I'm egotistically going to assume is a last minute effort to avoid being outpolled by me as they seemed to be going for just a paper candidate until now, and the postal votes are already out so it's a strange time to start. Still never seen anything from the Lib Dems or the Family Party. I'm over 90% done on my own leaflets.

As well as their various national woes, the local SNP branch has apparently hit some infighting against their local MP again, which may explain the lack of activity: www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/snp-hate-speech-storm-mp-30267451

Labour meanwhile have seen their council leader suspended and then chose a replacement with a history of a weird Nazi slogan blunder in a council meeting: www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23617542.south-lanarkshire-council-leader-joe-fagan-suspended-secrets-leak
www.thenational.scot/news/23620507.south-lanarkshire-council-appoint-leader-used-nazi-slogan/

Ballot Box Scotland thinks the ward is a guaranteed Labour win. I think Labour is likely, but not guaranteed. Conservatives may come top in first preferences on a low turnout, but they'll struggle for transfers to reach quota. Obviously I'm required to say I expect to win, but it'd also be nice just to set a new personal best.

Still waiting on any leaflet, so feel free to be the first

[Kristofer Keane]

Jul 2, 2023 10:39:03 GMT stb12 said:

Jul 1, 2023 18:14:10 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

Update from East Kilbride: the Conservatives are now onto a third leaflet, seen a second from Labour, still only one from the SNP. Saw the Greens for the first time today doing some leafleting in Stewartfield, which I'm egotistically going to assume is a last minute effort to avoid being outpolled by me as they seemed to be going for just a paper candidate until now, and the postal votes are already out so it's a strange time to start. Still never seen anything from the Lib Dems or the Family Party. I'm over 90% done on my own leaflets.

As well as their various national woes, the local SNP branch has apparently hit some infighting against their local MP again, which may explain the lack of activity: www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/snp-hate-speech-storm-mp-30267451

Labour meanwhile have seen their council leader suspended and then chose a replacement with a history of a weird Nazi slogan blunder in a council meeting: www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23617542.south-lanarkshire-council-leader-joe-fagan-suspended-secrets-leak
www.thenational.scot/news/23620507.south-lanarkshire-council-appoint-leader-used-nazi-slogan/

Ballot Box Scotland thinks the ward is a guaranteed Labour win. I think Labour is likely, but not guaranteed. Conservatives may come top in first preferences on a low turnout, but they'll struggle for transfers to reach quota. Obviously I'm required to say I expect to win, but it'd also be nice just to set a new personal best.

Still waiting on any leaflet, so feel free to be the first

I haven't touched Thorntonhall or the generally rural area, so presuming you're in there somewhere. Apologies it's nothing personal, just the law of diminishing returns. If I had a bike I'd consider cycling around the farms. 

[stb12]

Jul 2, 2023 10:46:07 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

Jul 2, 2023 10:39:03 GMT stb12 said:

Still waiting on any leaflet, so feel free to be the first

I haven't touched Thorntonhall or the generally rural area, so presuming you're in there somewhere. Apologies it's nothing personal, just the law of diminishing returns. If I had a bike I'd consider cycling around the farms. 

Don’t worry I’m used to it

[Deleted]

The Tories were 7% behind in Kings Hedges in May. Another congestion charge-related backlash? 

democracy.cambridge.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=264&RPID=81262986.

Any news on the ground?

[phil156]

They will all count on the night too Tuesday & Thursday

[Kristofer Keane]

I'm not attending the East Kilbride count unfortunately, so will not be able to report live. (They opted to have it in Hamilton, and there will be no public transport available to get back.)

[kevinf]

Jul 3, 2023 16:38:27 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

I'm not attending the East Kilbride count unfortunately, so will not be able to report live. (They opted to have it in Hamilton, and there will be no public transport available to get back.)

Any ideas about how the campaigns are going?

[Kristofer Keane]

Jul 3, 2023 20:50:33 GMT kevinf said:

Jul 3, 2023 16:38:27 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

I'm not attending the East Kilbride count unfortunately, so will not be able to report live. (They opted to have it in Hamilton, and there will be no public transport available to get back.)

Any ideas about how the campaigns are going?

See my post above from 1 July, no new info since then. Just heading out now to use up my final remaining leaflets.