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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2023 7:34:00 GMT
There are other wards where the Tories could figure on the basis of this policy - Arbury, Coleridge, East Chesterton, even Abbey to some extent. The majority of wards, very unlikely, even in Trumpington which was a Tory stronghold for many years.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2023 8:55:47 GMT
So the LDs and Greens effectively handed the seat to the Tories! Not a very good example of tactical voting. Well, not that in the context of Cambridge the tactical considerations are Tory/anti-Tory bearing in mind that this is the first Tory councillor elected for some years, the combined Lib Dem/Lab/Green vote was significantly down compared to May and the Tory vote was up (and though the Lib Dem vote in real terms and percentage was up, it was far outstripped by the Labour drop in vote and vote share). Historically the LD vote in Kings Hedges has been a right-of-centre anti-Labour vote (though there's the obvious caveat that a lot of those voters will have gone Tory this time.) The Tories have performed very poorly in Cambridge for many years. There’s never going to be a strong base for the current party there but this kind of stuff offers some potential for a marginal recovery centred on edge-of-city wards (of course it has little appeal in many other places, but the days when the Tories sought to run the council are long, long gone). Depending on how long this policy fallout continues for Cambridge Labour, the Tories could win up to six seats in the city if they can take the other Kings Hedges seats and the Cherry Hinton seats. They are both wards where car ownership is high (possibly the highest in the city). Are the Tories going to win Cambridge City Council anytime soon? Probably not, although they could win wards outside CH and KH because there are potentially three and four-way fights in some other seats. A further Tory uptick could decide between LAB control or NOC one day. Weren't some of these wards fairly Brexity back in 2016? Apropos of nothing seven years after the referendum, but still. [/quote] KH was the most Brexity ward in the city, although that equates to a remain share in the low 50s. Cherry Hinton was rather stronger for remain. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2023 10:44:08 GMT
What is actually going on in Cambridge Labour at the minute? Yes, the LibDems campaigning hard here *can* be said to have cost Labour the seat (and they shouldn't be in denial about that) but it wouldn't have mattered had their own vote held up a bit better.
As in last week at Bournemouth, we had somebody resigning days after being (in this case re) elected, and with a similar result.
We also shouldn't start thinking that campaigning against "green" traffic measures is some key to a miraculous Tory recovery in loads of places. I note, for instance, that in Cambridge's "twin" Oxford there are similar things proposed that are also unpopular with some - but the Tories still aren't doing much electorally.
And what happens to their "new" vote when these schemes eventually go through and are (as is normally the case) adapted to and generally accepted?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 10:58:10 GMT
What is actually going on in Cambridge Labour at the minute? Yes, the LibDems campaigning hard here *can* be said to have cost Labour the seat (and they shouldn't be in denial about that) but it wouldn't have mattered had their own vote held up a bit better. As in last week at Bournemouth, we had somebody resigning days after being (in this case re) elected, and with a similar result. We also shouldn't start thinking that campaigning against "green" traffic measures is some key to a miraculous Tory recovery in loads of places. I note, for instance, that in Cambridge's "twin" Oxford there are similar things proposed that are also unpopular with some - but the Tories still aren't doing much electorally. And what happens to their "new" vote when these schemes eventually go through and are (as is normally the case) adapted to and generally accepted? Although despite the way they are commonly viewed Oxford is a very different city to Cambridge and a lot of the differences are politically significant. One major one here is that the kind of peripheral areas that are voting Tory in opposition to these schemes in London and Cambridge are quite a bit more deprived in Oxford than in those two cities (Wood Farm, Rose Hill, Blackbird Leys, parts of Cowley, even some bits of Headington despite its reputation), and are extremely well connected by public transport (for example, Rose Hill and Iffley have direct bus links to Wallingford and Reading as well as Oxford city centre). The council also appears to be generally well-run and generally popular which is likely to blunt any protest even if people are unhappy which appears to be less true in Cambridge |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2023 11:18:20 GMT
What is actually going on in Cambridge Labour at the minute? Yes, the LibDems campaigning hard here *can* be said to have cost Labour the seat (and they shouldn't be in denial about that) but it wouldn't have mattered had their own vote held up a bit better. As in last week at Bournemouth, we had somebody resigning days after being (in this case re) elected, and with a similar result. We also shouldn't start thinking that campaigning against "green" traffic measures is some key to a miraculous Tory recovery in loads of places. I note, for instance, that in Cambridge's "twin" Oxford there are similar things proposed that are also unpopular with some - but the Tories still aren't doing much electorally. And what happens to their "new" vote when these schemes eventually go through and are (as is normally the case) adapted to and generally accepted? Although despite the way they are commonly viewed Oxford is a very different city to Cambridge and a lot of the differences are politically significant. One major one here is that the kind of peripheral areas that are voting Tory in opposition to these schemes in London and Cambridge are quite a bit more deprived in Oxford than in those two cities (Wood Farm, Rose Hill, Blackbird Leys, parts of Cowley, even some bits of Headington despite its reputation), and are extremely well connected by public transport (for example, Rose Hill and Iffley have direct bus links to Wallingford and Reading as well as Oxford city centre). The council also appears to be generally well-run and generally popular which is likely to blunt any protest even if people are unhappy which appears to be less true in Cambridge Then again, Kings Hedges is basically Cambridge's equivalent to Blackbird Leys and is not exactly badly connected - the buses are slow (hence why congestion charging is proposed) but there's no shortage of them. One big issue is that it's a very low turnout ward - you really have to work it incredibly hard on polling day to get your promise out even in good years. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 5, 2023 12:07:17 GMT
Con 34.94% +3.05 Lab 33.60% -11.23 LD 23.48% +8.51 Grn 7.98% -6.00 Those vote changes don't add up... Sorry, used the wrong divider when calculating the Lab vote share from May. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 16:51:58 GMT
There are other wards where the Tories could figure on the basis of this policy - Arbury, Coleridge, East Chesterton, even Abbey to some extent. The majority of wards, very unlikely, even in Trumpington which was a Tory stronghold for many years. The Tories could follow up this win with a second seat in King's Hedges next May, and Cherry Hinton must be winnable for them if the congestion charge stays in place. They may have three seats by next year. NOC is a stretch but not impossible in 2024. |
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Post by owainsutton on Jul 5, 2023 17:20:01 GMT
Although despite the way they are commonly viewed Oxford is a very different city to Cambridge and a lot of the differences are politically significant. One major one here is that the kind of peripheral areas that are voting Tory in opposition to these schemes in London and Cambridge are quite a bit more deprived in Oxford than in those two cities (Wood Farm, Rose Hill, Blackbird Leys, parts of Cowley, even some bits of Headington despite its reputation), and are extremely well connected by public transport (for example, Rose Hill and Iffley have direct bus links to Wallingford and Reading as well as Oxford city centre). The council also appears to be generally well-run and generally popular which is likely to blunt any protest even if people are unhappy which appears to be less true in Cambridge Then again, Kings Hedges is basically Cambridge's equivalent to Blackbird Leys and is not exactly badly connected - the buses are slow (hence why congestion charging is proposed) but there's no shortage of them. One big issue is that it's a very low turnout ward - you really have to work it incredibly hard on polling day to get your promise out even in good years. Every time I come across this Labour usage of 'promise', I cringe a little. If it was an actual promise, you wouldn't be needing to get them out. |
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2023 20:01:01 GMT
no, people often break their promises. Indeed, many think that the Promised Land has yet to come to pass.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 5, 2023 21:20:57 GMT
Then again, Kings Hedges is basically Cambridge's equivalent to Blackbird Leys and is not exactly badly connected - the buses are slow (hence why congestion charging is proposed) but there's no shortage of them. One big issue is that it's a very low turnout ward - you really have to work it incredibly hard on polling day to get your promise out even in good years. Every time I come across this Labour usage of 'promise', I cringe a little. If it was an actual promise, you wouldn't be needing to get them out. Of course you would, surprising as it may seem some people can be canvassed at the start of an election campaign, promise to vote for you, and come the day not have the faintest first idea that there’s an election happening that day (particularly so in a local election/by election that gets next to no publicity on local media (exacerbated by the destruction of local radio and the slow death of local newspapers). |
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Post by owainsutton on Jul 6, 2023 5:27:41 GMT
Every time I come across this Labour usage of 'promise', I cringe a little. If it was an actual promise, you wouldn't be needing to get them out. Of course you would, surprising as it may seem some people can be canvassed at the start of an election campaign, promise to vote for you, and come the day not have the faintest first idea that there’s an election happening that day (particularly so in a local election/by election that gets next to no publicity on local media (exacerbated by the destruction of local radio and the slow death of local newspapers). If you're getting data that inaccurate, then you're asking the wrong questions. |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 6, 2023 5:38:11 GMT
Of course you would, surprising as it may seem some people can be canvassed at the start of an election campaign, promise to vote for you, and come the day not have the faintest first idea that there’s an election happening that day (particularly so in a local election/by election that gets next to no publicity on local media (exacerbated by the destruction of local radio and the slow death of local newspapers). If you're getting data that inaccurate, then you're asking the wrong questions. Out of interest do Greens use a term for people who say they are going to vote for them? Voter ID remains an art not a science. For a start those collecting the data, while probably receiving consistent instruction, nevertheless do the task in inconsistent ways. And voters are entirely free to both deliberately mislead and change their minds. Both happen a fair bit. I was always quite impressed with the seeming accuracy of canvassing in my marginal ward, but there remained plenty of churn within the figures. |
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Post by owainsutton on Jul 6, 2023 5:55:45 GMT
If you're getting data that inaccurate, then you're asking the wrong questions. Out of interest do Greens use a term for people who say they are going to vote for them? We record it in a more granular, and less emotive, way. |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 6, 2023 6:19:16 GMT
Out of interest do Greens use a term for people who say they are going to vote for them? We record it in a more granular, and less emotive, way. The modern Labour approach is probably similar. A canvasser who follows instructions is supposed to rank a voter on their self-declared degree of adherence to voting Labour on a scale. I haven’t done it enough to know how generally those instructions are followed. In the very old days some supposedly used to decline to class someone as a supporter unless they took a poster. There were a few streets in my ward where that probably wasn’t far out (although of course displaying a poster didn’t guarantee a vote, particularly where perceived community pressure had made the display almost intimidating). Of course terms like “promise” probably originate in the days of two-party politics, where class alignment was much stronger. It’s not a literal term nor one that carries undue expectation. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 6, 2023 7:03:17 GMT
Of course terms like “promise” probably originate in the days of two-party politics, where class alignment was much stronger. It’s not a literal term nor one that carries undue expectation. I think it’s a bit more recent and simple than that; they always used to be pledges when I first started inputting data, but then we changed to American software and they became promises. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2023 7:19:05 GMT
The Tory in King's Hedges won with about 9% of the electorate in the ward backing him. Lol.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 6, 2023 10:12:06 GMT
The Tory in King's Hedges won with about 9% of the electorate in the ward backing him. Lol. One reason why maybe we shouldn't get too excited about Tory prospects in Cambridge going forward - the LibDems almost certainly won't be putting as much effort into KH come next years regular elections, for one thing. And there were other unfavourable aspects for Labour this time as well as traffic schemes. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 6, 2023 10:40:06 GMT
It may be long ago but from having done the first canvass of King's Hedges ward in the 1992 general election, I know something about the ward. I doubt that a byelection win and a sitting Conservative councillor in King's Hedges is likely to create a long term opportunity for a Conservative revival in Cambridge. The base Conservative vote is not very high and the party would need a good issue affecting a large part of the ward in order to put it in contention for a win. On occasions the council's Labour administration may decide to create one but otherwise this is a ward which will very easily be persuaded to return to Labour.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2023 10:43:18 GMT
The Tory in King's Hedges won with about 9% of the electorate in the ward backing him. Lol. You could say something similar probably about most of the by-election victors in these threads. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 6, 2023 10:47:40 GMT
The Tory in King's Hedges won with about 9% of the electorate in the ward backing him. Lol. You could say something similar probably about most of the by-election victors in these threads. Quite. "Local council by-election in low turnout shocker" is not a headline anyone should expect to see any time soon. |
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