ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Jul 4, 2023 19:50:51 GMT
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2023 20:24:37 GMT
Any obvious explanation for the strong Tory performance in this Cambridge ward this year?
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Post by batman on Jul 4, 2023 20:50:40 GMT
read the profile. It's almost certainly to do with unhappiness amongst many voters with the council's car policies. A similarly sharp improvement was seen in Cherry Hinton, which is a rather similar ward to King's Hedges in the SE of the city (although that ward has a rather stronger Conservative heritage than King's Hedges and is a bit less council-estate dominated).
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Post by phil156 on Jul 4, 2023 22:47:03 GMT
Turnout in Cambridge 26.7%
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Post by samdwebber on Jul 4, 2023 23:21:39 GMT
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2023 23:24:24 GMT
So the LDs and Greens effectively handed the seat to the Tories! Not a very good example of tactical voting. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 4, 2023 23:47:49 GMT
So the LDs and Greens effectively handed the seat to the Tories! Not a very good example of tactical voting. Well, not that in the context of Cambridge the tactical considerations are Tory/anti-Tory bearing in mind that this is the first Tory councillor elected for some years, the combined Lib Dem/Lab/Green vote was significantly down compared to May and the Tory vote was up (and though the Lib Dem vote in real terms and percentage was up, it was far outstripped by the Labour drop in vote and vote share). |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 4, 2023 23:57:45 GMT
Con 34.94% +3.05 Lab 33.60% -11.23 LD 23.48% +8.51 Grn 7.98% -6.00 |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Jul 5, 2023 0:08:12 GMT
So the LDs and Greens effectively handed the seat to the Tories! Not a very good example of tactical voting. From the context (Labour incumbent very unhappy to the point they quit the Council and the party, and Labour under pressure on the driving issue) seems more like Labour threw it away to me. Yes plenty of votes to LD/Green, but they're the obvious recipients for protesting Labour voters who've decided to vote elsewhere this time. A lot of those votes weren't going Labour this time, no matter what the other parties did. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 5, 2023 0:15:24 GMT
Whoever runs electionmapsuk twitter account reports that the Tory candidate campaigned on scrapping an apparently unpopular congestion scheme charge..
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on Jul 5, 2023 0:39:06 GMT
Whoever runs electionmapsuk twitter account reports that the Tory candidate campaigned on scrapping an apparently unpopular congestion scheme charge.. Same thing in May. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 5, 2023 1:28:14 GMT
Whoever runs electionmapsuk twitter account reports that the Tory candidate campaigned on scrapping an apparently unpopular congestion scheme charge.. Uxbridge? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 3:45:41 GMT
Cambridge's first Tory Councillor elected since 2012.
If this swing happened in other wards in the next local elections (it was congestion charge-driven), the Tories would also win Cherry Hinton.
Is an edge-of-conurbation seat bucking the national trend because of a controversial congestion charge? Hmm.
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Post by robert1 on Jul 5, 2023 5:42:03 GMT
From the preview provided above this appears to be the first Conservative victory in this ward since its creation almost 50 years ago
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Post by matureleft on Jul 5, 2023 5:56:05 GMT
From the preview provided above this appears to be the first Conservative victory in this ward since its creation almost 50 years ago Yes. This ward has largely been very safe Labour with minimal Tory support. It’s what local elections are partly about. Clearly there’s a policy that’s unpopular with an important segment of the electorate and voting Tory here is the only way to register that view (the other parties to a greater or lesser extent back that policy). In addition there’s clearly been some Labour internal friction which will have made a by-election uncomfortable, at the very least. The Tories have performed very poorly in Cambridge for many years. There’s never going to be a strong base for the current party there but this kind of stuff offers some potential for a marginal recovery centred on edge-of-city wards (of course it has little appeal in many other places, but the days when the Tories sought to run the council are long, long gone). |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 5, 2023 6:05:27 GMT
Con 34.94% +3.05 Lab 33.60% -11.23 LD 23.48% +8.51 Grn 7.98% -6.00 Those vote changes don't add up... |
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Post by carolus on Jul 5, 2023 6:29:15 GMT
Con 34.94% +3.05 Lab 33.60% -11.23 LD 23.48% +8.51 Grn 7.98% -6.00 Those vote changes don't add up... Should be Lab -5.6% I think. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 7:05:45 GMT
From the preview provided above this appears to be the first Conservative victory in this ward since its creation almost 50 years ago Yes. This ward has largely been very safe Labour with minimal Tory support. It’s what local elections are partly about. Clearly there’s a policy that’s unpopular with an important segment of the electorate and voting Tory here is the only way to register that view (the other parties to a greater or lesser extent back that policy). In addition there’s clearly been some Labour internal friction which will have made a by-election uncomfortable, at the very least. The Tories have performed very poorly in Cambridge for many years. There’s never going to be a strong base for the current party there but this kind of stuff offers some potential for a marginal recovery centred on edge-of-city wards (of course it has little appeal in many other places, but the days when the Tories sought to run the council are long, long gone). Depending on how long this policy fallout continues for Cambridge Labour, the Tories could win up to six seats in the city if they can take the other Kings Hedges seats and the Cherry Hinton seats. They are both wards where car ownership is high (possibly the highest in the city). Are the Tories going to win Cambridge City Council anytime soon? Probably not, although they could win wards outside CH and KH because there are potentially three and four-way fights in some other seats. A further Tory uptick could decide between LAB control or NOC one day. Weren't some of these wards fairly Brexity back in 2016? Apropos of nothing seven years after the referendum, but still. |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 5, 2023 7:26:12 GMT
Yes. This ward has largely been very safe Labour with minimal Tory support. It’s what local elections are partly about. Clearly there’s a policy that’s unpopular with an important segment of the electorate and voting Tory here is the only way to register that view (the other parties to a greater or lesser extent back that policy). In addition there’s clearly been some Labour internal friction which will have made a by-election uncomfortable, at the very least. The Tories have performed very poorly in Cambridge for many years. There’s never going to be a strong base for the current party there but this kind of stuff offers some potential for a marginal recovery centred on edge-of-city wards (of course it has little appeal in many other places, but the days when the Tories sought to run the council are long, long gone). Depending on how long this policy fallout continues for Cambridge Labour, the Tories could win up to six seats in the city if they can take the other Kings Hedges seats and the Cherry Hinton seats. They are both wards where car ownership is high (possibly the highest in the city). Are the Tories going to win Cambridge City Council anytime soon? Probably not, although they could win wards outside CH and KH because there are potentially three and four-way fights in some other seats. A further Tory uptick could decide between LAB control or NOC one day. Weren't some of these wards fairly Brexity back in 2016? Apropos of nothing seven years after the referendum, but still. I haven’t been involved in Cambridge politics for a long time but the roots of Tory collapse were in their failure to adapt to demographic change, as the city evolved from a fairly modest (and cheap) place with a major university, a large public sector and an ordinary private sector to one with a vigorous science-oriented private sector with a highly educated workforce and a magnet culture for some Londoners (as communications improved). The local Tories, if they’d been sharp, would have picked up on the enterprises, their needs and the workforce they required. There’s no logical reason why a socially liberal, enterprise oriented party couldn’t thrive. But that wasn’t their pitch, locally or nationally. There is an electorate for their offer but it’s fairly small. Note that in this election, as the only party firmly against the policy, they got just over a third of the vote. First past the post could be their friend in a city with strong Lib Dem and Green activism as well as Labour, particularly when those parties aren’t far apart in local ideology. |
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2023 7:31:49 GMT
Whoever runs electionmapsuk twitter account reports that the Tory candidate campaigned on scrapping an apparently unpopular congestion scheme charge.. this has been known for ages & has previously been commented upon. |
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