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Post by michaelarden on Jul 6, 2023 23:08:53 GMT
i highlighted that because everyone in the predictions had Labour winning and SNP 2nd... But at stage 6? |
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Post by kevinf on Jul 6, 2023 23:10:58 GMT
i highlighted that because everyone in the predictions had Labour winning and SNP 2nd... Fair point. Including me. |
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Post by Kristofer Keane on Jul 6, 2023 23:16:29 GMT
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jul 6, 2023 23:16:49 GMT
Is the Maidstone Central count tonight?
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Post by phil156 on Jul 6, 2023 23:29:57 GMT
Is the Maidstone Central count tonight? I emailed them on Monday they said as soon as the polls close, it is a big ward thou according to Andrews preview |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299 
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Post by maxque on Jul 6, 2023 23:34:27 GMT
Turnout is going to be very low, not helped by it raining nearly all day here. Labour have been the most active about polling stations though their teller here went home at 7. SNP, Tories and Lib Dems have only been visiting for turnout figures. Haven't seen a Green or Family Party activist all day. When the Lib Dem guy turned up, he asked me if I had ever thought of joining the Lib Dems... Looking at the results, they should have asked to join you. |
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 6, 2023 23:43:13 GMT
Congratulations on beating the Liberal Democrats  |
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Post by maidstonian on Jul 7, 2023 1:31:35 GMT
Is the Maidstone Central count tonight? I emailed them on Monday they said as soon as the polls close, it is a big ward thou according to Andrews preview Sorry to keep you all waiting, as you will see below, it was rather close: KCC Maidstone CentralLib Dem 1,860
Green 1,849
Con 1,564
Lab 914
Reform 278
Ind 56
Lib Dem hold
I will leave it to others to do the clever bit, I'm off to bed!
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Post by greenman on Jul 7, 2023 2:20:37 GMT
So LD lost 5% support, Conservatives 5.8%, Labour 7%, while Greens gained 9.3%, Reform gained 4.3%.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 7, 2023 4:57:56 GMT
Phew, I thought that was going to be close to a 4-way tie and I was right-ish!I was not at all confident of a Lib Dem hold, given that Dan's personal vote was huge ( he was a big man in all senses), and wouldn't necessarily transfer. I'm not at all surprised that the biggest challenge came from the Greens, and it will be quite a battle to hold this one come the next election.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 7, 2023 6:56:11 GMT
Congratulations on beating the Liberal Democrats |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2023 6:57:07 GMT
i highlighted that because everyone in the predictions had Labour winning and SNP 2nd... But at stage 6? The fact that the winning candidate won in the 6th round was mainly due to the number of candidates standing. If the winning candidate doesn’t get 50%+ of the votes in the first round, it is likely to go all the way to the (n-1)th round, where n is the number of candidates. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 7, 2023 7:09:16 GMT
So LD lost 5% support, Conservatives 5.8%, Labour 7%, while Greens gained 9.3%, Reform gained 4.3%. I'm not sure what base figures you are using for that- it's one case where the top vote method could be very misleading, and even average vote method could be quite distorted by a strong personal vote for Dan Daley. It might be a case where the bottom vote is the nearest to the correct view of the relative party strengths - not least because the Lib Dem winner this time was the Lib Dem loser last time! |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Jul 7, 2023 7:35:26 GMT
I emailed them on Monday they said as soon as the polls close, it is a big ward thou according to Andrews preview Sorry to keep you all waiting, as you will see below, it was rather close: KCC Maidstone CentralLib Dem 1,860
Green 1,849
Con 1,564
Lab 914
Reform 278
Ind 56
Lib Dem hold
I will leave it to others to do the clever bit, I'm off to bed!
Lib Dem - 28.5% Green - 28.4% Conservative - 24.0% Labour - 14.0% Reform - 4.3% Independent - 0.9% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 7, 2023 7:49:58 GMT
So LD lost 5% support, Conservatives 5.8%, Labour 7%, while Greens gained 9.3%, Reform gained 4.3%. I'm not sure what base figures you are using for that- it's one case where the top vote method could be very misleading, and even average vote method could be quite distorted by a strong personal vote for Dan Daley. It might be a case where the bottom vote is the nearest to the correct view of the relative party strengths - not least because the Lib Dem winner this time was the Lib Dem loser last time! I don't think those figures are right on any measure, but top vote flatters the Conservatives more than the Lib Dems on the 2021 result (ie the personal vote for the winning Conservative candidate was greater than that for the winning Lib Dem). It really doesn't make much difference in terms of the Lib Dem share (top vote 30.1% Average 29.6% Bottom 29.0%) If you present it in terms of the swing from Conservative to Lib Dem, against top vote it is 5.4%, Average vote 5.1% and bottom 4.6%. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 7, 2023 8:33:13 GMT
I'm not sure what base figures you are using for that- it's one case where the top vote method could be very misleading, and even average vote method could be quite distorted by a strong personal vote for Dan Daley. It might be a case where the bottom vote is the nearest to the correct view of the relative party strengths - not least because the Lib Dem winner this time was the Lib Dem loser last time! I don't think those figures are right on any measure, but top vote flatters the Conservatives more than the Lib Dems on the 2021 result (ie the personal vote for the winning Conservative candidate was greater than that for the winning Lib Dem). It really doesn't make much difference in terms of the Lib Dem share (top vote 30.1% Average 29.6% Bottom 29.0%) If you present it in terms of the swing from Conservative to Lib Dem, against top vote it is 5.4%, Average vote 5.1% and bottom 4.6%. Interesting- I hadn't had time to do the number crunching and was going on gut instinct. As I said on the prediction thread this is a difficult division to read because it is so varied, with each party having its areas of strength and weakness. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 7, 2023 8:42:01 GMT
I emailed them on Monday they said as soon as the polls close, it is a big ward thou according to Andrews preview Sorry to keep you all waiting, as you will see below, it was rather close: KCC Maidstone CentralLib Dem 1,860
Green 1,849
Con 1,564
Lab 914
Reform 278
Ind 56
Lib Dem hold
I will leave it to others to do the clever bit, I'm off to bed!
So close... |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 7, 2023 9:03:58 GMT
GWBWI
Possibly the most interesting week so far, with three different winners, and a spread of scores for everyone as a result. This is the sort of week I'd hope the GWBWI would be useful for, as this is where everyone would be likely to boost their success(es), and dismiss their disappointments, while doing the reverse for their opponents.
The best win of the week was Cambridge, where the Cons scored +56. They lost ground (-19) in Kent, howevr, which dropped them to second overall. South Lanarkshire was a wash (+0) for them.
LibDems obviously did best in Kent, but as a weakish hold only scored +36. In Cambridge they did manage a small net positive (+9), and +0 in South Lanarkshire.
Labour had a decent win in South Lanarkshire (+51), but went backwards in both the others, quite substantially in Cambridge (-33) and slightly in South Lanarkshire (-6)
Greens didn't have significant movements in either direction in any of the three, but ended up slightly positive: +16 (Kent), +1 (South Lanarkshire), -6 (Cambridge).
SNP obviously only contested one, and lost, but based on the previous result, this wasn't too terrible: -22
LDm +45
Con +37
Lab +12
Grn +11
SNP -22
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Post by phil156 on Jul 7, 2023 9:09:35 GMT
Sorry to keep you all waiting, as you will see below, it was rather close: KCC Maidstone CentralLib Dem 1,860
Green 1,849
Con 1,564
Lab 914
Reform 278
Ind 56
Lib Dem hold
I will leave it to others to do the clever bit, I'm off to bed!
So close... Any chance of the percentages please up or down from last time |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2023 9:32:03 GMT
Congratulations on beating the Liberal Democrats Kris beat one of his former parties and wasn't that far behind another. |
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