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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2023 7:01:55 GMT
Other Greater London seats which this result has significant implications for include Sutton & Cheam, Carshalton & Wallington (especially since Tom Brake is not trying to regain it), Croydon South (it is safely Conservative but Labour can still win it if a landslide victory is on the cards for them), Croydon East, Harrow East, Hendon, and Eltham & Chislehurst. ULEZ might prevent Labour gaining ground in London in the next GE, but there was still a 6.7% swing in their favour despite ULEZ. A 6.7% swing hands Labour Chingford & Woodford Green, almost all the Barnet seats, Kensington & Bayswater, and Cities of London & Westminster. I don't think Labour would win Harrow East, but that has little to do with ULEZ and more to do with the current occupant of No. 10. |
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Post by batman on Jul 27, 2023 8:13:56 GMT
ULEZ won't be an issue in inner London at all. If the question is "which seats in or just outside outer London could Labour win but will fail to mainly because of ULEZ", the answer is almost certainly "Uxbridge & South Ruislip", but you'd struggle to find another example. Harrow East is a likelier than average Conservative hold because the middle-class Hindu vote will be too tough a nut for Labour to crack, not mainly because of ULEZ. The Barnet seats have a totally different electorate from U&SR and Labour are near-certain to gain Chipping Barnet & Hendon, and because of the special factors that appertained in 2019 most likely Finchley & Golders Green too. I don't see IDS coming very close to holding on to Chingford & Woodford Green, and as has been said before the Havering seats are probably beyond Labour anyway. Watford too needs too small a swing for Labour to be that likely to fail to take it. Croydon South perhaps is one seat which Labour could possibly fail to take because of ULEZ extension, but it is not a seat Labour needs to form an overall majority. The clue is probably in last year's local election results in most cases though Chingford & Woodford Green might be a slight exception, and of course Watford too with its enormous local LD vote that doesn't generally transfer to general elections. In other words, if you could have hand-picked one constituency where ULEZ would be most likely to be the difference between Labour winning or losing, it would definitely have been Uxbridge & South Ruislip, or at least either that or Croydon South. Theoretically you could argue that Harrow West is vulnerable, and even Slough, for different reasons, but it is stretching credulity that Labour would lose either of those seats.
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bigfatron
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Post by bigfatron on Jul 27, 2023 8:57:06 GMT
I could certainly see ULEZ saving Sutton and Cheam for the Tories - less sure about Carshalton & Wallington...
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Post by batman on Jul 27, 2023 9:12:46 GMT
possible but it's still a very tricky Conservative hold.
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Post by spinach on Jul 27, 2023 9:30:07 GMT
I could certainly see ULEZ saving Sutton and Cheam for the Tories - less sure about Carshalton & Wallington... I feel the Liberal Democrats will struggle to re-gain Sutton and Cheam in the future unless there’s a by election. The Lib Dem’s would be better focusing on Wimbledon and Esher Walton which has more favourable Lib Dem demographics. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 27, 2023 19:01:25 GMT
Other Greater London seats which this result has significant implications for include Sutton & Cheam, Carshalton & Wallington (especially since Tom Brake is not trying to regain it), Croydon South (it is safely Conservative but Labour can still win it if a landslide victory is on the cards for them), Croydon East, Harrow East, Hendon, and Eltham & Chislehurst. ULEZ might prevent Labour gaining ground in London in the next GE, but there was still a 6.7% swing in their favour despite ULEZ. A 6.7% swing hands Labour Chingford & Woodford Green, almost all the Barnet seats, Kensington & Bayswater, and Cities of London & Westminster. I don't think Labour would win Harrow East, but that has little to do with ULEZ and more to do with the current occupant of No. 10.
If we're looking at a 1997-style rout, (anti) ULEZ probably isn't going to save anyone. Neither will being a good constituency MP or indeed the opposition candidate being a bit rubbish and unprepared. This also happened in 2015 in Scotland, and to some extent in 2019, so its a phenomena we probably have to get used to. 'Tactical protest' votes in by elections tend to dematerialise at GEs.
Slightly reducing the scale of a landslide at Westminster level won't make any difference to ULEZ implementation, but the GLA/Mayor election is different because it will be possible (if unlikely) to make a genuine impact and force a change in policy. If we see any serious ULEZ resistance translating into votes anywhere, I would expect it to be in the GLA.
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Post by adlai52 on Aug 7, 2023 8:20:32 GMT
Other Greater London seats which this result has significant implications for include Sutton & Cheam, Carshalton & Wallington (especially since Tom Brake is not trying to regain it), Croydon South (it is safely Conservative but Labour can still win it if a landslide victory is on the cards for them), Croydon East, Harrow East, Hendon, and Eltham & Chislehurst. ULEZ might prevent Labour gaining ground in London in the next GE, but there was still a 6.7% swing in their favour despite ULEZ. A 6.7% swing hands Labour Chingford & Woodford Green, almost all the Barnet seats, Kensington & Bayswater, and Cities of London & Westminster. I don't think Labour would win Harrow East, but that has little to do with ULEZ and more to do with the current occupant of No. 10. A uninform swing also has to contend with what happens to the strong LibDem showings in seats like Finchley, Chelsea & Fulham etc... it seems likely that Labour could eat up a lot of the '19 LibDem vote in these seats, probably enough to put them at risk on current polling. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 7, 2023 9:11:54 GMT
ULEZ might prevent Labour gaining ground in London in the next GE, but there was still a 6.7% swing in their favour despite ULEZ. A 6.7% swing hands Labour Chingford & Woodford Green, almost all the Barnet seats, Kensington & Bayswater, and Cities of London & Westminster. I don't think Labour would win Harrow East, but that has little to do with ULEZ and more to do with the current occupant of No. 10. also has to contend with what happens to the strong LibDem showings in seats like Finchley, Chelsea & Fulham etc... it seems likely that Labour could eat up a lot of the '19 LibDem vote in these seats, probably enough to put them at risk on current polling. Accidentally, this is probably a better name for it.  |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2023 9:18:51 GMT
A uninform swing also has to contend with what happens to the strong LibDem showings in seats like Finchley, Chelsea & Fulham etc... it seems likely that Labour could eat up a lot of the '19 LibDem vote in these seats, probably enough to put them at risk on current polling. Accidentally, this is probably a better name for it. Top comment. A uniform swing was Ciites of London & Westminster or Kensington in 2019. |
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Post by adlai52 on Aug 7, 2023 10:47:59 GMT
A uninform swing also has to contend with what happens to the strong LibDem showings in seats like Finchley, Chelsea & Fulham etc... it seems likely that Labour could eat up a lot of the '19 LibDem vote in these seats, probably enough to put them at risk on current polling. Accidentally, this is probably a better name for it.  - but v true |
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- but v true