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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 23, 2023 1:08:44 GMT
Uxbridge was the worst kind of Outer London seat to have a ULEZ referendum in because its white van man territory. Would like to to see this by election play out in other more educated Outer London marginal like the Barnet seats. Perhaps wrongly I've always assumed Hillingdon is to north-west London what Bromley is to south-east London in terms of being similar boroughs, demographics etc. That's on the basis I don't know Hillingdon well. Is Hillingdon more a mirror image of Bexley across London (rather than Bromley)? Very much more like Bexley. Both have been Labour controlled on several occasions while Bromley has never come close. There is a certain symmetry if you consider the three seats occupying each borough (before cross-borough seats mudied the water) Erith & Crayford - Hayes & Harlington. Working class industrial seats which were safe for Labour from their creation in the 1950s until 1983, followed by period of marginality then Labour dominance again* Bexleyheath - Uxbridge. Generally lower middle class and without much extremes of wealth and poverty. Held promise for Labour in the early post-war period but have tended to trend Conservative Old Bexley/Sidcup - Ruislip Northwood. Very much more upmarket overall (though with some areas sharing characteristics with Bexleyheath - Uxbridge) and always safely Conservative. There are obviously differences. Ruislip Northwood is I think much more upmarket than Sidcup while I think Hayes & Harlington is grottier than Erith & Crayford (also Erith & Crayford is more Conservative now - I'd have to check but that seat might have gone Conservative in 2019, possibly even earlier) There are marked ethnic differences - much larger Asian population in Hillingdon |
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Post by batman on Jul 23, 2023 6:20:14 GMT
Very good analysis although it is probably the case that Thamesmead (or in this case that part of it which is in Bexley borough) out-grottys anywhere in Hayes & Harlington. Or indeed most other constituencies.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2023 7:02:29 GMT
Bexley LB’s minorities seem more concentrated (in Erith and Thamesmead) compared to Hillingdon (RN&P is 31% Asian).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 23, 2023 7:57:44 GMT
Bexley LB’s minorities seem more concentrated (in Erith and Thamesmead) compared to Hillingdon (RN&P is 31% Asian). That's true, although over 40% in 'P' so somewhat lower in the Hillingdon section (high in Northwood proper but lower in Ruislip (including the part thereof included in the seat under discussion on this thread). There are, relatively, very few Asians in Bexley and the greatest concentration is actually in Welling, but the Black population is certainly very concentrated in the northern most areas - In Erith itself and North end as well as Thamesmead. I hadn't appreciated how much these numbers had increased there and its a long time since I've visited this part of London, so maybe it is 'grottier' than H&H |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 23, 2023 10:18:31 GMT
But saying "reflect" is only "throwing under the bus" if you want to be melodramatic - as is routine with OJ these days. Especially since there is surely stuff that can be done to mitigate the impact of ULEZ expansion short of junking it entirely (which remains unlikely to happen) KS did say in a speech today that he thought it was the wrong policy and was ammunition from the Tories. Sounds like that reflection is being ramped up Still suspect it is mostly performative tbh - Khan will likely "review" the policy, then announce ULEZ is going ahead with some modifications. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 23, 2023 14:34:45 GMT
KS did say in a speech today that he thought it was the wrong policy and was ammunition from the Tories. Sounds like that reflection is being ramped up Still suspect it is mostly performative tbh - Khan will likely "review" the policy, then announce ULEZ is going ahead with some modifications. Simplest thing he could do to show he's "done something" is implement a zone system. Within inner ring road, £X, within London Circular £Y, within GL £Z, X > Y > Z. |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 23, 2023 20:36:33 GMT
I think Net Zero is a path to poverty unless it's fudged with near maximum dishonesty, but this analysis on support sadly seems right for the Conservatives:
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 23, 2023 20:48:26 GMT
One underlying problem with the "Uxbridge proves we must junk Net Zero" thesis is that ULEZ is really about air pollution, not Carbon emissions.
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 23, 2023 21:05:22 GMT
I agree. Using a football analogy, Labour are 2-0 up with 15 minutes to play. You should win from here, but "things can still happen"
a year and a half is a long 15 minutes. In FIFA the commentator used to say 'theyve got a comfortable lead' at 2-0. Inevitably the game would end 2-2. Swansea vs. Millwall last season: Swansea 2-0 up in the 93rd minute, two own goals later it finished 2-2. |
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 23, 2023 21:08:55 GMT
KS did say in a speech today that he thought it was the wrong policy and was ammunition from the Tories. Sounds like that reflection is being ramped up Still suspect it is mostly performative tbh - Khan will likely "review" the policy, then announce ULEZ is going ahead with some modifications. Khan will “review” up until the next election (either the GE or his own re-election), then recommend full implementation the day after said election. Edit: sorry, I missed that the Bish had already said this. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 26, 2023 16:07:15 GMT
One underlying problem with the "Uxbridge proves we must junk Net Zero" thesis is that ULEZ is really about air pollution, not Carbon emissions. you are of course correct and I have made this point repeatedly to others. But it does not matter what we think. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 26, 2023 16:41:26 GMT
I think Net Zero is a path to poverty unless it's fudged with near maximum dishonesty, but this analysis on support sadly seems right for the Conservatives: We do have to sharply cut carbon emissions nonetheless though for all our sakes -systemic reform is also needed to make it work. How can we do this without severe austerity? |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 26, 2023 16:49:29 GMT
No, we really don't and no you really can't.
And it's not austerity anyway. Austerity is living well within your means, whatever they are. Which we have not yet tried.
Impoverishment is willfully making people poorer.
BTW, I am getting banner adverts for holidays in the Maldives, because the Maldives do not want us to stop having transcontinental holidays, they just want some "reparations", i.e. money extorted from taxpayers in other countries
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 26, 2023 17:15:23 GMT
a year and a half is a long 15 minutes. In FIFA the commentator used to say 'theyve got a comfortable lead' at 2-0. Inevitably the game would end 2-2. Swansea vs. Millwall last season: Swansea 2-0 up in the 93rd minute, two own goals later it finished 2-2. quiz last week, question was 'what was the score of the 1999 champions League final between Man u and Bayern at the 89th minute |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jul 26, 2023 19:17:31 GMT
Bayern were the better team that night.
And Dynamo Kiev battered Bayern in the semi final but just couldn't score and paid the price.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 26, 2023 19:20:59 GMT
Other Greater London seats which this result has significant implications for include Sutton & Cheam, Carshalton & Wallington (especially since Tom Brake is not trying to regain it), Croydon South (it is safely Conservative but Labour can still win it if a landslide victory is on the cards for them), Croydon East, Harrow East, Hendon, and Eltham & Chislehurst.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 26, 2023 20:55:03 GMT
Other Greater London seats which this result has significant implications for include Sutton & Cheam, Carshalton & Wallington (especially since Tom Brake is not trying to regain it), Croydon South (it is safely Conservative but Labour can still win it if a landslide victory is on the cards for them), Croydon East, Harrow East, Hendon, and Eltham & Chislehurst. Orpington, Romford, Upminster. |
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Post by where2travel on Jul 26, 2023 21:30:15 GMT
Other Greater London seats which this result has significant implications for include Sutton & Cheam, Carshalton & Wallington (especially since Tom Brake is not trying to regain it), Croydon South (it is safely Conservative but Labour can still win it if a landslide victory is on the cards for them), Croydon East, Harrow East, Hendon, and Eltham & Chislehurst. Orpington, Romford, Upminster. They're already safe seats for the Tories which they should hold onto. I think the point is other constituencies that are Labour or are expected to go Labour, could this change things. |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Jul 27, 2023 0:38:27 GMT
No, we really don't and no you really can't_(my underscore). And it's not austerity anyway. Austerity is living well within your means, whatever they are. Which we have not yet tried. Impoverishment is willfully making people poorer. BTW, I am getting banner adverts for holidays in the Maldives, because the Maldives do not want us to stop having transcontinental holidays, they just want some "reparations", i.e. money extorted from taxpayers in other countries Upon reflection, while it was not the primary reason for liking greenhert 's post, it appears noteworthy that by my admittedly not comprehensive perception, these transformations tend to generate prosperity for the effectors while the opposition is left behind. A couple illustrative cases in point are PV panels and electric cars. If memory serves 90% percent of polysilicon is produced in China of late, which ended up creating some uncomfy knocks for previously hostile persuasions.  |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 27, 2023 6:47:42 GMT
Orpington, Romford, Upminster. They're already safe seats for the Tories which they should hold onto. I think the point is other constituencies that are Labour or are expected to go Labour, could this change things. Yes although the first two seats I mentioned are of course Lib Dem targets. The Lib Dems are supportive of the ULEZ generally. |
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