The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 21, 2023 11:53:10 GMT
Now we will get to see how good Lord Ashcroft's constituency poll really is Not that bad it turns out Come again - it showed an actual pro-Tory swing! Whereas - to repeat - the J&L Partners poll later on was almost spot on with the Labour share. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 12:01:04 GMT
a fair summary, though the Uxbridge result must cause some deep down and not so deep down unease? Even given the other two results? Though you can imagine the DISCOURSE had this byelection been a stand alone event can't you  As already pointed out, Labour unexpectedly holding Grimsby in 1977 wasn't as much a predictor of the coming GE as losing Ashfield on the same day. Though it might have been different had Callaghan called an election in Autumn 1978 before the Winter of Discontent. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 21, 2023 12:02:22 GMT
Indeed it might, you can say the same about Brown in autumn 2007 too. Ah well.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jul 21, 2023 12:11:03 GMT
LabourList are reporting that the chair of Uxbridge CLP has resigned in wake of the defeat last night.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 21, 2023 12:22:01 GMT
LabourList are reporting that the chair of Uxbridge CLP has resigned in wake of the defeat last night. that seems a bit dramatic |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 21, 2023 12:25:10 GMT
LabourList are reporting that the chair of Uxbridge CLP has resigned in wake of the defeat last night. that seems a bit dramatic I hope the chair isn't Japanese or there could be worse to come |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 21, 2023 12:29:16 GMT
LabourList are reporting that the chair of Uxbridge CLP has resigned in wake of the defeat last night. that seems a bit dramatic Obviously Corbyn would have won the by-election easily. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2023 12:43:03 GMT
It was more than socialist hubris - I think most of us had written this one off as well Indeed, the absence of a visit from Sunak - even though its not exactly hard from him to get to - maybe told its own story there. And the vibe I got from the Tory candidate, even after the result was announced, was that he didn't actually expect to win despite ULEZ. And maybe it wasn't really so much Labour "hubris" in that their vote was roughly what they had been expecting (and indeed what the constituency poll had predicted) rather than the right wing vote being impressively united, and more so than almost anyone predicted - and the depoliticised "send the mayor a message" Tory campaign (almost the sort of thing the LibDems have perfected down the years) was surely a big part of that. Taking these three byelections in the round, Selby and Somerton show that the current polls are pretty much correct. The signifcance of Uxbridge is that it shows the Tories can still come back from the dead (even if not to the extent of actually winning) if the other parties are careless enough to allow them to.
I agree. Using a football analogy, Labour are 2-0 up with 15 minutes to play. You should win from here, but "things can still happen"
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Post by matureleft on Jul 21, 2023 12:49:57 GMT
that seems a bit dramatic Obviously Corbyn would have won the by-election easily. I have very little sympathy but I'd give him credit for not doing that during the campaign. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 21, 2023 12:58:03 GMT
Indeed, the absence of a visit from Sunak - even though its not exactly hard from him to get to - maybe told its own story there. And the vibe I got from the Tory candidate, even after the result was announced, was that he didn't actually expect to win despite ULEZ. And maybe it wasn't really so much Labour "hubris" in that their vote was roughly what they had been expecting (and indeed what the constituency poll had predicted) rather than the right wing vote being impressively united, and more so than almost anyone predicted - and the depoliticised "send the mayor a message" Tory campaign (almost the sort of thing the LibDems have perfected down the years) was surely a big part of that. Taking these three byelections in the round, Selby and Somerton show that the current polls are pretty much correct. The signifcance of Uxbridge is that it shows the Tories can still come back from the dead (even if not to the extent of actually winning) if the other parties are careless enough to allow them to.
I agree. Using a football analogy, Labour are 2-0 up with 15 minutes to play. You should win from here, but "things can still happen"
That line was quoted by a writer to the times shortly before election day 1970, you may remember west germany knocked england out of the 1970 world cup 4 days before polling |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 21, 2023 13:00:33 GMT
Credit to the Tories for sticking doggedly with the biggest vote-winning policy they could muster in the circumstances. I fully expect another by-election in the seat or its successor when I'm in my late 80s, and the Tories to win unexpectedly yet again. A few observations from me as someone who worked on several days in the campaign. 1 ) ULEZ was obviously a major issue. At first it seemed as if it was just habitual Tory voters who brought it up, but increasingly this was not the case. Labour's concentrating on the cost of living crisis was much less effective when for a minority, but an important minority, of voters this policy potentially cost them even more financially. I personally had to change my car because of the previous extension of ULEZ, and was very fortunate that I was able to afford to do so because I had come into some money. Others are less fortunate. I did think ULEZ was a significant issue in the campaign, however my rationale for predicting a narrow Labour win, was in assuming voters wouldnt make their vote solely on that single issue, but would also look at the effect of Government policies in just about every other area of their lives, take that into account, and I honestly thought that those with the greatest concern about ULEZ would use the typical 'a plague on both your houses' tactic of refusing to vote Tory or Labour, but then still expressing their displeasure at the ULEZ policy by opting for one of the anti-ULEZ candidates in classic protest-vote style.
I think I would have used this tactic (as it isnt a GE) to deliver that message to both parties and was very surprised that more didnt do so. [Had the ULEZ candidates got 200+ more votes each, we really would have been into multiple recount territory!] I was speaking on Twitter this morning to a former Press Officer who is going to be in the constituency after the boundary changes are implemented, and, although his recovery from illness has limited his participation, he’s of the view that the anti-ULEZ vote was going to be a problem, but it was only in the last four days it coalesced around the Conservatives; his charity bet, that he does at every election, was a Labour majority of 150-250, with the caveat posted yesterday morning, that his heart was ruling his head. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 21, 2023 13:30:50 GMT
Not quite sure how Mr Williams's resignation will help to have more principled politicians running the country, as he puts it.
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 21, 2023 13:38:50 GMT
'BAME', 'aspirational Asian heritage' - it's okay, you can just say Hindu guys. But the group they are referring to with this are not just Hindus. It also includes a substantial proportion of Sikhs and at least some Asian Christians. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 21, 2023 13:39:25 GMT
The last Labour government, a government in which Khan was a transport minister, encouraged people to buy diesel. Now those people are punishing them for it. It's hardly surprising the public are pissed.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 21, 2023 13:43:16 GMT
that seems a bit dramatic Obviously Corbyn would have won the by-election easily. Even his idiot brother came within 14,000 votes of winning it! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 21, 2023 14:41:10 GMT
The last Labour government, a government in which Khan was a transport minister, encouraged people to buy diesel. Now those people are punishing them for it. It's hardly surprising the public are pissed. It did so under the belief that diesel cars were significantly less polluting than they actually are. They weren't responsible for manufacturers cheating on emissions tests. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jul 21, 2023 14:56:41 GMT
There's another lesson here, which has more relevance than ULEZ - and that is if the Tories try to please swing voters rather than dinner party guests they can still win
Sunak probably doesn't have the stomach to have a focussed populist campaign, and he may fail any way
But it is an alternative route
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 15:23:29 GMT
Sorry for the delay on this one. Got called away..  | Con | 287 | | Lab | 275 | | SNP | 50 | | LD | 14 | | PC | 4 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 | | | | | | |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jul 21, 2023 15:30:45 GMT
The last Labour government, a government in which Khan was a transport minister, encouraged people to buy diesel. Now those people are punishing them for it. It's hardly surprising the public are pissed. It did so under the belief that diesel cars were significantly less polluting than they actually are. They weren't responsible for manufacturers cheating on emissions tests. They were "following the science". |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 21, 2023 16:01:21 GMT
The last Labour government, a government in which Khan was a transport minister, encouraged people to buy diesel. Now those people are punishing them for it. It's hardly surprising the public are pissed. It did so under the belief that diesel cars were significantly less polluting than they actually are. They weren't responsible for manufacturers cheating on emissions tests. The tax changes made by Gordon Brown which encouraged the purchase of diesel vehicles happened long before the emissions software scandal started. |
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