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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 20, 2023 20:19:58 GMT
Is there an example of the Tories gaining a safe labour seat in a by election? Hartlepool 2021 Ashfield 1977 Birmingham Stechford 1977 Acton 1968 Hartlepool's majority wasn't 25k. Tories held Hartlepool(s) as recently as the 60s |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 20, 2023 20:28:53 GMT
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 20:34:51 GMT
This is utterly shameless. She should, quite frankly, be thrown out the party for this. People have been expelled for less. It is shameless, and shows a complete lack of any self-awareness - does she not have a clue that she bears a lot of responsibility for this atrocious result herself, by her refusal to serve as a proper MP? - but is this really against the Conservative Party's rules? |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 20:37:25 GMT
I cannot think of any by-election in the Labour Party's 123-year long history which could reasonably be argued to be a greater result than this one. We are an increasingly formidable election-winning machine and just think that only 2 years ago we lost Hartlepool, and lost it overwhelmingly. We have come a very long way since then. Staffordshire SE? Dudley West? Similar swings, but bigger turnouts, and bigger numbers of Labour votes in absolute terms. Of course they were great results - the size of the Labour majority in Dudley W, a by-election I campaigned in, was amazing - but both constituencies were areas where Labour had won before, and indeed won again repeatedly. Mid Beds is special because of the totally unprecedented success for Labour, without any local government base even from this year's elections, on a very large swing. For this reason I think Mid Beds is an even better result, excellent though the other two were for us. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 20, 2023 20:38:01 GMT
This is utterly shameless. She should, quite frankly, be thrown out the party for this. People have been expelled for less. It is shameless, and shows a complete lack of any self-awareness - does she not have a clue that she bears a lot of responsibility for this atrocious result herself, by her refusal to serve as a proper MP? - but is this really against the Conservative Party's rules? She is really dreadful. I genuinely think she is too thick to realise that she is partly responsible. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 20:45:37 GMT
Is there an example of the Tories gaining a safe labour seat in a by election? Hartlepool 2021 Ashfield 1977 Birmingham Stechford 1977 Acton 1968 Acton would be a safe Labour seat if it existed today, but it was not safe at the time & had been won by the Conservatives as recently as 1959. Birmingham Stechford & Ashfield were safer. Nor was Hartlepool safe after the 2019 general election although Mike Hill's result in 2017 had been pretty good. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 20, 2023 20:52:27 GMT
It is shameless, and shows a complete lack of any self-awareness - does she not have a clue that she bears a lot of responsibility for this atrocious result herself, by her refusal to serve as a proper MP? - but is this really against the Conservative Party's rules? She is really dreadful. I genuinely think she is too thick to realise that she is partly responsible. I don't think she should be expelled from the party though. I think she has come to represent exactly the nature of the modern conservative party, so why should they expel her? |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 21:16:11 GMT
I wonder if Labour is somewhat overstated in the village wards in Tamworth, but somewhat understated in some of the town wards. In the past, when Labour has won in Tamworth, there has been a very big contrast between town & country in that constituency, with Little Aston being particularly heavily Conservative. In Mid Beds, Stewartby is rather stark & is a rare example of a place that looks as if it might reasonably be Labour, but it is pretty small. I think it's a very decent shot at estimating who won which ward in the constituency. I still find it pretty amazing that Labour managed to outpoll the Tories in the ward including Woburn, Shefford less so; the latter isn't particularly well-off, although it isn't poor either. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 21, 2023 6:11:55 GMT
I wonder if Labour is somewhat overstated in the village wards in Tamworth, but somewhat understated in some of the town wards. In the past, when Labour has won in Tamworth, there has been a very big contrast between town & country in that constituency, with Little Aston being particularly heavily Conservative. Us oldies sometimes find it difficult to really absorb how political loyalties have shifted from class to education, age, and associated culture. Rural villages are less Conservative than they used to be, with their well-educated populations. Much depends on whether they are full of retirees, commuters, or are agricultural. Working class towns with their older populations and lower educational qualifications are less reliably Labour than they used to be. Some tribal dislike of Labour/Conservative remains, but is much less among young people, leading to more volatility. So a smaller distinction than historically between the likes of Stonnall and Stonydelph is to be expected. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 6:42:35 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if Labour carried Woburn since Labour won the adjoining Danesborough and Walton ward in Milton Keynes in May.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 9:51:18 GMT
I would be completely astonished! I suspect Labour probably only won a very few wards; I'm almost more interested in how many the LDs won
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Post by matureleft on Oct 21, 2023 9:52:01 GMT
I wonder if Labour is somewhat overstated in the village wards in Tamworth, but somewhat understated in some of the town wards. In the past, when Labour has won in Tamworth, there has been a very big contrast between town & country in that constituency, with Little Aston being particularly heavily Conservative. Us oldies sometimes find it difficult to really absorb how political loyalties have shifted from class to education, age, and associated culture. Rural villages are less Conservative than they used to be, with their well-educated populations. Much depends on whether they are full of retirees, commuters, or are agricultural. Working class towns with their older populations and lower educational qualifications are less reliably Labour than they used to be. Some tribal dislike of Labour/Conservative remains, but is much less among young people, leading to more volatility. So a smaller distinction than historically between the likes of Stonnall and Stonydelph is to be expected. Indeed. The unknown in this is how enduring these movements will be. I’d admit to having an economics-driven view of voting behaviour in the long term. However that does depend on people’s belief that governments change things and that is probably diminishing. If so narrower likes and dislikes start to play a bigger part. But it still remains my view that Johnson’s coalition is desperately fragile - they jettisoned a chunk of middle class support over Brexit and other signals toward nativism. They won instead a (much larger in most constituencies) cohort of lower-income conservatively-minded people. But the things they voted for don’t make a positive difference to their material circumstances and, arguably, make them worse off. There’s a point when that tips choices although buyer’s regret is often quite hard to build. Conservatism since Disraeli has struggled with something like this dilemma. Empire, religion and nationalism in a world where borders were hard and trade was limited used to be the solution, plus an electoral system that favoured big tent parties. They remain a supremely flexible party but some avenues are becoming pretty hard to navigate. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 11:37:30 GMT
Tory vote share:
1997: 46%
2023: 31.1%
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2023 11:46:58 GMT
The Independent seemed to do quite, no idea how hard they campaigned or what they stood for If anything they got squeezed as the campaign went on, I'm sure they were hoping to keep their deposit at least. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 21, 2023 12:57:29 GMT
Tory vote share: 1997: 46% 2023: 31.1% But that is just so shallow and silly. One was a GE with high TO and the other is a one-off By-election under difficult and damaging circumstances for the Conservatives, inducing many Conservative supporters to sit out the contest as a protest, causing a TO way under 50%. There is no analogy to be drawn here. Yet again you make a rather pathetic and childish statement that is known to us all but has no bearing on anything. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 13:44:34 GMT
Tory vote share: 1997: 46% 2023: 31.1% But that is just so shallow and silly. One was a GE with high TO and the other is a one-off By-election under difficult and damaging circumstances for the Conservatives, inducing many Conservative supporters to sit out the contest as a protest, causing a TO way under 50%. There is no analogy to be drawn here. Yet again you make a rather pathetic and childish statement that is known to us all but has no bearing on anything. When you compare that to the Tamworth result, which was closer to 2005, you see the realignment that's gone on, IMO. In Tamworth, the Tories got 66% in 2019 while they hadn't held the seat from 1997 to 2010. In Mid Bedfordshire, by contrast they *only* got 59% in 2019. The question to me is, why did the Conservatives hold up so well in Tamworth relative to historical results, and Uxbridge, and Old Bexley & Sidcup, while they didn't in Mid Beds? Could it be that local issues really do affect these thing? In which case, it shouldn't bother Sunak at all, as these by-elections were the fault of Pincher and Dorries, and nothing to do with him. In which case, Sunak is in a stronger position than first appears. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 21, 2023 14:02:13 GMT
But that is just so shallow and silly. One was a GE with high TO and the other is a one-off By-election under difficult and damaging circumstances for the Conservatives, inducing many Conservative supporters to sit out the contest as a protest, causing a TO way under 50%. There is no analogy to be drawn here. Yet again you make a rather pathetic and childish statement that is known to us all but has no bearing on anything. When you compare that to the Tamworth result, which was closer to 2005, you see the realignment that's gone on, IMO. In Tamworth, the Tories got 66% in 2019 while they hadn't held the seat from 1997 to 2010. In Mid Bedfordshire, by contrast they *only* got 59% in 2019. I am not trying to shut you up and I have no desire to be offensive or rude, yet I know I have been. I do find you provoking in the nature and structure of your positions and in your causual and sub-optimal use of English. I think you can and should 'do better'! Here again you are teaming and ladling with dates and results to draw what I see to be invalid inferences. You quite clearly saw the drop from 1997 GE) 46% to 2023 ByE) 31.1% to be in some way significant, whereas it frankly has no significance at all. In 1997 GE it was regarded as a very safe seat and largely ignored by all parties. But in the fevered position of 2023 (ByE) with a terminal nervous breakdown by the Conservatives, the abysmal behaviour by the narcissistic MP Dorries, all in the intense glare of publicity and concentrated attentions by two opponent parties not normally in a position to do anything there nor even wishing to, there was an odd result. Your implied comparison without analysis or commentary was trite and childish and I just wonder why you do it? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 14:05:52 GMT
When you compare that to the Tamworth result, which was closer to 2005, you see the realignment that's gone on, IMO. In Tamworth, the Tories got 66% in 2019 while they hadn't held the seat from 1997 to 2010. In Mid Bedfordshire, by contrast they *only* got 59% in 2019. I am not trying to shut you up and I have no desire to be offensive or rude, yet I know I have been. I do find you provoking in the nature and structure of your positions and in your causual and sub-optimal use of English. I think you can and should 'do better'! Here again you are teaming and ladling with dates and results to draw what I see to be invalid inferences. You quite clearly saw the drop from 1997 GE) 46% to 2023 ByE) 31.1% to be in some way significant, whereas it frankly has no significance at all. In 1997 GE it was regarded as a very safe seat and largely ignored by all parties. But in the fevered position of 2023 (ByE) with a terminal nervous breakdown by the Conservatives, the abysmal behaviour by the narcissistic MP Dorries, all in the intense glare of publicity and concentrated attentions by two opponent parties not normally in a position to do anything there nor even wishing to, there was an odd result. Your implied comparison without analysis or commentary was trite and childish and I just wonder why you do it? Sorry. I don't know. It's probably borne out of some deep-seated need for attention and relevance. I apologise for spamming this thread. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2023 14:38:04 GMT
Something for everyone in Bedfordshire this year. Tories won the Bedford mayoral race, and now Labour won this.
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 21, 2023 17:28:14 GMT
I would be completely astonished! I suspect Labour probably only won a very few wards; I'm almost more interested in how many the LDs won The analysis by Ben Walker, to which a link was provided here, extrapolates that Labour in fact won a majority of the wards. These included those which take in Flitwick, Stewartby, Toddington, Cranfield, Marston Moretaine, Barton-le-Clay I think, Wixam & Woburn, plus that tiny little bit of Cauldwell ward which is in the constituency, very easily in that case; he thinks that the Conservatives carried the ward that includes Ampthill (he doesn't pronounce either Ampthill or Flitwick correctly! lol), but that also includes Maulden which according to my memory (used to visit Ampthill weekly, and Maulden sometimes, but it's years ago) is perhaps a little more strongly Conservative than Ampthill; and that the Tories carried a couple of other wards. He thinks that the Lib Dems carried the ward that includes Wootton. I used to be in a band which rehearsed in Ampthill every weekend (the drummer had a space in a very large converted garage at the bottom of his garden, he was the son of the local butcher) and visited much of the constituency in order to go to pubs after rehearsals (sometimes a curry in Bedford too), so I have knowledge of the constituency from the 80s, but most of it not much since then. |
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