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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 20, 2023 9:52:56 GMT
Nah, come on, it's a bloody good result for Labour and let's not pretend otherwise. It's perfectly acceptable for us too, despite the usual cope from the far right buffoons on here. Agreed, raw votes 2019 v last night
| 2019 | 2023 | | Con | 38,692 | 12,680 | | Lab | 14,028 | 13,872 | | LD | 8,171 | 9,420 |
You could build a useful graphic from that data. A bar chart.  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 20, 2023 9:54:47 GMT
Bim Afolami a loser from last night. Looks like he can face a top-rate Labour incumbent in the new Hitchin seat, or a serious Lib Dem challenge which only needs to follow council results in Harpenden and Berkhamsted. Not an appealing choice. Which actually doesn't usually happen. You're from Milton Keynes North/NE aren't you? We all remember how when that seat was created it was going to be a plum Lib Dem seat following local council results (see also York Outer, etc etc) Local government success doesn't automatically lead to parliamentary success (coughs, Congleton) but it is often a prerequisite at GEs. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 20, 2023 10:03:41 GMT
I see what you're getting at, an I'd be hopeful you're right. But surely those LibDem voters you talk about will have had plenty of contact from Labour during this very protacted campaign? As wavering or unhappy Cons, they'd have been a prime target for leafleting and canvassing, surely? So if this time they still voted LibDem rather than Labour, what's their path next time? I think the difference next time is that it is 100% clear now, with evidence, which of the Lib Dem’s or Labour can beat the Tories, that will surely sway a few more. Oh yes, I absolutely agree on that, and that's going to be very helpful. What I'm querying is why those LibDem voters should have totally believed they were the challengers. If EAL is right, then how come the Labour canvassing didn't work? My theory is that they don't find Labour an acceptable alternative. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 20, 2023 10:10:35 GMT
Labour – 13,872 (34.1%) Conservative - 12,680 (31.1%) Lib Dem – 9,420 (23.1%) Gareth Mackie – 1,865 (4.6%) Reform UK – 1,487 (3.7%) Green – 732 (1.8%) OMRLP – 249 (0.6%) English Democrats – 107 (0.3%) CPA – 101 (0.2%) True & Fair – 93 (0.2%) Heritage – 63 (0.2%) Ankit Love – 27 (0.1%) Mainstream – 24 (0.1%) Just goes to show that you'll never win from the mainstream. 99.8% this was not a true & fair election anyways. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2023 10:23:56 GMT
Not really - the seat is maintained in its essential form, losing a few thousand voters to neighbouring seats. Without wishing to argue this point too hard, by my reckoning the seat loses just over 20,000 in total from the amendments? I suppose it depends what I mean by "quite severely". These aren't minor changes and couldn't be with a constituency with an electorate of over 90,000. Yes, he'd of course have first claim on the truncated seat, but he lives in the part that's going so he has a reasonable argument for a shift. It's about 17,000 in total leaving the seat, but not all going to the same place - perhaps about half of that going into Hitchin the rest to North Beds and a handful to Bedford |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 20, 2023 10:30:33 GMT
Yes, very sound. As you said, it was worth both parties trying but it will be very satisfactory for Labour to have asserted their muscle. You're also correct in that it's not disastrous for us to have our field of operations kept within reach of our resources. Usual cope and seethe from the ex-Tories on here misses the point. Lab don't have to win in Mid-Beds, nor need this level of Tory abstention to win a GE. The disillusionment of Tory voters across their spectrum is palpable and swing voters are going for whatever option they think will get the Tories out. Anywhere remotely marginal is in play at the GE. Sunak's room for manoeuvre on election dates is further proscribed and I expect party discipline to be poor too. I wouldn’t say I “coped and seethed” as I literally said that the Tories deserve to lose in a landslide. I didn't have you in mind. I'm thinking more of people celebrating a Lib Dem national polling vote share of c. 10-12% being replicated in the combined results, but almost all of the it in the place we wanted it and none where we knew we had no chance, as if that wasn't exactly what we want to happen at the GE; and crowing over the loony right vote share as if that isn't also a thing we and Labour will be happy to see. Then there is the astounding revelation that voters aren't much bothered about the specific policy or ideology of the party they're voting for, they've just decided that the Tories must go. No shit. Not much thought given to why that might be, though, or the role of people who used to be blue here in making it happen. |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 20, 2023 10:32:06 GMT
Without wishing to argue this point too hard, by my reckoning the seat loses just over 20,000 in total from the amendments? I suppose it depends what I mean by "quite severely". These aren't minor changes and couldn't be with a constituency with an electorate of over 90,000. Yes, he'd of course have first claim on the truncated seat, but he lives in the part that's going so he has a reasonable argument for a shift. It's about 17,000 in total leaving the seat, but not all going to the same place - perhaps about half of that going into Hitchin the rest to North Beds and a handful to Bedford Yes, because the Boundary Commission are using older electorates my figure overstates what’s happening. The electorate last night was over 92,000 and the published Commission electorate, on their terms, is/was 71,000. It illustrates how fast the area is growing. I presume when it’s fought under the new boundaries it’ll be some thousands above their figure. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 10:33:49 GMT
The voters of Mid Beds and Tamworth (collectively) were efficient in arranging their swings to ensure a clear majority for Labour in both, without needing recounts.
But I reckon if they had not voted tactically, an had voted with the same swings in both seats, the results would have been:
Beds Mid
Lab 15,286
Con 12,986
LD 7,248
Others 5,171
Lab maj 2,300
Tamworth
Lab 10,117
Con 9,827
LD 2,671
Others 2,973
Lab maj 290
So gain both anyway
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 10:34:45 GMT
II’m on the train so I can’t type easily on my mobile phone
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Post by andrewp on Oct 20, 2023 10:40:33 GMT
I think the difference next time is that it is 100% clear now, with evidence, which of the Lib Dem’s or Labour can beat the Tories, that will surely sway a few more. Oh yes, I absolutely agree on that, and that's going to be very helpful. What I'm querying is why those LibDem voters should have totally believed they were the challengers. If EAL is right, then how come the Labour canvassing didn't work? My theory is that they don't find Labour an acceptable alternative. Yes, I think there are 2 different groups who we talk about . There are the ‘basically Tories’ who are unhappy who I think as we mostly agree are much happier to vote Lib Dem than Labour, I don’t think many of them will vote Lab next time. Then there is the different group of generic ‘anti Tories’ - some of them, who are not particularly politically aware. will have voted Lib Dem this time due to not being clear on the situation, and that group is there for Labour to work on for next time. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Oct 20, 2023 10:41:33 GMT
I wouldn’t say I “coped and seethed” as I literally said that the Tories deserve to lose in a landslide. I didn't have you in mind. I'm thinking more of people celebrating a Lib Dem national polling vote share of c. 10-12% being replicated in the combined results, but almost all of the it in the place we wanted it and none where we knew we had no chance, as if that wasn't exactly what we want to happen at the GE; and crowing over the loony right vote share as if that isn't also a thing we and Labour will be happy to see. Then there is the astounding revelation that voters aren't much bothered about the specific policy or ideology of the party they're voting for, they've just decided that the Tories must go. No shit. Not much thought given to why that might be, though, or the role of people who used to be blue here in making it happen. Tbf to Pete Whitehead (and many other right wingers here, including myself) , he’s happy about the 10% right of Tory share because he wants the Tories to lose and the right-of-Tory parties to get a high share of the vote. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 20, 2023 10:50:50 GMT
Agreed, raw votes 2019 v last night
| 2019 | 2023 | | Con | 38,692 | 12,680 | | Lab | 14,028 | 13,872 | | LD | 8,171 | 9,420 |
You could build a useful graphic from that data. A bar chart. Not a bar chart though that's possible. I could always do the area charts the forum loved so much.  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2023 10:50:56 GMT
I didn't have you in mind. I'm thinking more of people celebrating a Lib Dem national polling vote share of c. 10-12% being replicated in the combined results, but almost all of the it in the place we wanted it and none where we knew we had no chance, as if that wasn't exactly what we want to happen at the GE; and crowing over the loony right vote share as if that isn't also a thing we and Labour will be happy to see. Then there is the astounding revelation that voters aren't much bothered about the specific policy or ideology of the party they're voting for, they've just decided that the Tories must go. No shit. Not much thought given to why that might be, though, or the role of people who used to be blue here in making it happen. Tbf to Pete Whitehead (and many other right wingers here, including myself) , he’s happy about the 10% right of Tory share because he wants the Tories to lose and the right-of-Tory parties to get a high share of the vote. The parties to the right of the Conservatives got less than 5% of the vote in this constituency and I have made no mention of them so I assume Adam's strange rant (seeth?) was not directed at me either.. You are right of course that I welcome strong performances by those parties (eg in Tamworth) both because I support their agenda and because I want to see the Tory party destroyed so an actual conservative party can replace it. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Oct 20, 2023 10:54:50 GMT
Tbf to Pete Whitehead (and many other right wingers here, including myself) , he’s happy about the 10% right of Tory share because he wants the Tories to lose and the right-of-Tory parties to get a high share of the vote. The parties to the right of the Conservatives got less than 5% of the vote in this constituency and I have made no mention of them so I assume Adam's strange rant (seeth?) was not directed at me either.. You are right of course that I welcome strong performances by those parties (eg in Tamworth) both because I support their agenda and because I want to see the Tory party destroyed so an actual conservative party can replace it. I thought he was referring to your comment on the Tamworth thread. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2023 10:58:29 GMT
The parties to the right of the Conservatives got less than 5% of the vote in this constituency and I have made no mention of them so I assume Adam's strange rant (seeth?) was not directed at me either.. You are right of course that I welcome strong performances by those parties (eg in Tamworth) both because I support their agenda and because I want to see the Tory party destroyed so an actual conservative party can replace it. For some reason, I thought that you were the one who was vocally happy about the 10% in Tamworth, my bad. lol On the Tamworth thread yes - I expressed my pleasure about their performance as you would expect. At the same time its sad that this vote can't be unified behind a single party as it effetively was in UKIP's heyday |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 20, 2023 11:01:57 GMT
The parties to the right of the Conservatives got less than 5% of the vote in this constituency and I have made no mention of them so I assume Adam's strange rant (seeth?) was not directed at me either.. You are right of course that I welcome strong performances by those parties (eg in Tamworth) both because I support their agenda and because I want to see the Tory party destroyed so an actual conservative party can replace it. I thought he was referring to your comment on the Tamworth thread. Perhaps he was - I'm not sure my comments come under the definition 'cope & seethe' but then I'm not really well up on teenager internet speak |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Oct 20, 2023 11:05:52 GMT
For some reason, I thought that you were the one who was vocally happy about the 10% in Tamworth, my bad. lol On the Tamworth thread yes - I expressed my pleasure about their performance as you would expect. At the same time its sad that this vote can't be unified behind a single party as it effetively was in UKIP's heyday Taking over associations seems like a better way to move the party rightward in general (not necessarily on specific issues, as UKIP was a must in the 2000s/2010s to push the referendum and opposition to excessive immigration numbers), but that requires a lot more effort from ordinary right-wingers , so it’s basically impossible. |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 20, 2023 11:09:18 GMT
It's about 17,000 in total leaving the seat, but not all going to the same place - perhaps about half of that going into Hitchin the rest to North Beds and a handful to Bedford Yes, because the Boundary Commission are using older electorates my figure overstates what’s happening. The electorate last night was over 92,000 and the published Commission electorate, on their terms, is/was 71,000. It illustrates how fast the area is growing. I presume when it’s fought under the new boundaries it’ll be some thousands above their figure. And as the law calls for all constituencies to be no more than +/5% of the UK electral quota then I wonder whether we could see legal challenges in Conservative seats after the election stating that the constituency is illegal? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 11:10:49 GMT
Well that's not what the law states is it? Or we would have to have reviews every year
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2023 11:31:22 GMT
Nah, come on, it's a bloody good result for Labour and let's not pretend otherwise. It's perfectly acceptable for us too, despite the usual cope from the far right buffoons on here. Agreed, raw votes 2019 v last night
| 2019 | 2023 | | Con | 38,692 | 12,680 | | Lab | 14,028 | 13,872 | | LD | 8,171 | 9,420 |
Raw votes really mean very little though. My favourite stat regarding this is maybe that the 1994 Dudley West byelection - still the biggest Tory to Labour swing since WW2 - saw the winning vote *down* on what they got at the 1992 GE. And yes, the Tories certainly clutched that straw pretty ferociously at the time. |
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